WDW Weather Forecast - November 30-Dec 16, 2012

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Friday pm, November 30, 2012
The high today is topping out at 76. Very pleasant. No sign of any major rain through Friday. Very isolated light showers could pop up in the afternoon, but they would be extremely brief. There's a slight chance of light showers Thursday night into Friday morning, but, again, nothing to be concerned about. The high tomorrow will be 76-78, then 77-79 for Sunday through Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday looks to be around 75 for highs.

Long range...Still no sign of any long lasting cold weather around here; the big omega block over the Bering Sea is keeping the pattern from becoming too amplified over the continental U.S. at least through mid-December. I do note the CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System) shows a large snow cover over much of the U.S. the week of Christmas, but that is about as voodoo as you can get. Dec 8 should be clear and in the upper 70s. Dec 9 a front moves through that could bring showers in the morning and a high in the mid 70s. Dec 10-13 looks clear with highs near 80. The next chance of rain arrives Dec 14. Dec 15-16 looks clear with highs in the mid 70s.

Tropics Note - The 2012 Hurricane Season ends today. This season was one that produced 19 named storms, of which 10 became hurricanes and one became a major hurricane. An interesting aspect of the season was its early start, with two tropical storms, Alberto and Beryl, developing in May before the season officially began. Also, this is the seventh consecutive year that no major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) have hit the United States. The only major hurricane this season was Hurricane Michael, a Category 3 storm that stayed over the open Atlantic. Several storms this year were short in duration, weak in intensity, and went largely unnoticed by the general public because they stayed out over the Atlantic. A persistent jet stream pattern over the eastern portion of the nation helped steer many of this season’s storms away from the United States. The number of named storms and hurricanes was higher than predicted in NOAA’s pre-season outlook, in large part because El Niño – which likely would have suppressed overall storm activity – never materialized as predicted by many climate models.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
Nothing big today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[DisneyorBust]

Many thanks Chris!
DW,DD#2 and I will be returning to WDW this Sunday and once again your forecasts are a helpful part of our planning.

[Strmchsr]

Have a great trip Eric!

[Camaro305]

Love your forecasts! I hope that voodoo doesn't come true in a couple of weeks, we'll be in the World 12-9 through 12-20! :mickey:

[ginger19]

Thank you for the updates! I arrive on the 16th so I am now checking this thread obsessively hoping for perfect weather :D

Can't wait to finally tell the kids :mickey:

[ckaranassos]

I'm writing from the Jersey Shore! We still have no power, phone, tv and limited cell service. Things are a real mess down here. But i consider my family real lucky. People have lost everything. It was a bad one. We are nervous about this possible Nor Easter coming in on Wednesday. I will be checking your posts when i can for any updates. Thanks so much!

[ginger19]

Thank you for the updates! I have been checking every day so that I know what to pack for our trip 11/16-11/23. Do you think we can get away with no ponchos?

[Disney Hungarian]

:birthday: Cole!

[Strmchsr]

so that I know what to pack for our trip 11/16-11/23. Do you think we can get away with no ponchos?

Right now it looks that way. Any rain potential would be light and brief. Certainly not worth taking up room in the suitcase for ponchos. Keep checking over the next couple of days to make sure the pattern stays the same.


:birthday: Cole!

Thanks Sean!

[jnfr2424]

I know it's voodoo land but Nor'easter???
I will be watching this more carefully as if this storm is on its way we might be stuck in Disney!!

[ginger19]

Thank you! I'll keep checking every day :thumbsup:
Ponchos take up so much room so I am hoping not to take them.
As for the Nor'easter, we really can't afford another with all of the destruction from Sandy so let's just make that one go away ;)

[TheVBs]

Thank you for the forecast Chris! :mickey: It looks like we'll have nice weather for the couple of days that we visit.

[Sam&Alex&Josh'sMOM]

Ok, do your magic and keep getting warmer as we are there 11/28-12/7... OK?

[Strmchsr]

Ok, do your magic and keep getting warmer as we are there 11/28-12/7... OK?

lol, no promises. This is one of the years where the pattern is in place for cooler than normal temps through the winter so I would expect at least some cooler temps while you're there.

[jakeybake]

Thanks as always Chris!

Will be down from 12/8-12/12 and anxiously watching your forecasts the closer it gets.

3 years ago it was mid to high 80's on the same week. 2 years ago it was frigid and in the 40's and last year was low 80's so that week is always a **** shoot for me!!

Thanks as always for the help!
Jay

[TinkerbellT421]

Eek!!! I'm getting anxious!!! 20 days and counting! Can't wait to see what your forecast shows Chris!!!

[Strmchsr]

Eek!!! I'm getting anxious!!! 20 days and counting! Can't wait to see what your forecast shows Chris!!!

Well, you have about 4 days until you're in "voodooland" and then we'll see what it holds. :mickey:

[Camaro305]

I'll be approaching Voodoo Land in a few days as well. I hope I don't need my raincoat! :) accuweather.com says I will, rain from 12-10 to 12-12. I realize that this is probably just based on the GFS model, and will PROBABLY change. Fingers crossed! :)

[Strmchsr]

accuweather.com says I will, rain from 12-10 to 12-12. I realize that this is probably just based on the GFS model, and will PROBABLY change. Fingers crossed! :)

Yeah, just keep in mind that "accuweather" usually isn't beyond 2-3 days and nothing or no one (me included) is really accurate beyond 7 days so I wouldn't worry about that raincoat just yet.

[Fangorn]

We're headed down on Black Friday for our son's wedding, so I'm watching your forecast daily. Lo and behold! A first (for me at least) a mention of Portland in the forecast. Nice to get a mention, even if it is in regard to travel delays. Rain doesn't usually slow things down up here, but there is only one thing to say to describe the past few days around here - THE DELUGE.

Thanks, Chris

[Gator]

I hoping voodoo doesn't happen. I can't believe FL will have freezing temps for the third December in a row. Guess I'll have to wait a little longer.

[Strmchsr]

I hoping voodoo doesn't happen. I can't believe FL will have freezing temps for the third December in a row. Guess I'll have to wait a little longer.


Definitely don't worry about it right now. Like I said in the forecast, yesterday the models were saying mid to upper 70s. The pattern this year is for below normal temps for Dec-Feb, but anything beyond 7 days all I'm doing is reporting model data, not really making a forecast, which is why I call it voodooland. Don't be surprised if it's all changed again tomorrow.

[lawgirl]

I can't believe that we are checking weather already...I can't wait! I know it's "voodoo land" but do you have projections for Dec 8-11? The last time we went in Dec it was freezing! Im hoping for 70's this trip!

[Strmchsr]

I know it's "voodoo land" but do you have projections for Dec 8-11? The last time we went in Dec it was freezing! Im hoping for 70's this trip!

The overall pattern is for below normal temps, but I think 70s is definitely likely for you. I don't see extreme cold just yet unless a big trough develops like the models were showing a couple of days ago. For now, though, it looks like cool, but not cold.

[lawgirl]

I can handle cool! I'll keep checking for your updates. Thank you so much. I've learned alot about weather from you!

[TinkerbellT421]

Chris, we're getting closer!!!! yay!!!!

[sgdisney]

I love it when my dates finally hit Chris's forecast, even if it still is too far out to really get a good idea on the weather. Thanks for all the updates Chris!:thumbsup:

[Christine]

It's COLD down here! It keeps saying 70 but it's cold!! I know I'm a thin-skinned Floridian now, but even my folks form Nebraska here this week have been shocked. My dad, in his best Jaws impression, said "We're gonna need a bigger coat".
Dress warm folks- when the sun goes down it's beyond chilly!

[Strmchsr]

Dress warm folks- when the sun goes down it's beyond chilly!

Hey, I've been saying since August it would be colder than normal. :mickey:

What Christine says is true, though. There's a lot of water around WDW and just like the water makes it feel hotter in the summer, so the moisture makes it feel cooler so when the sun goes down it will feel cooler than the ambient temp.

[disneydeb]

WooHoo! Nothing but blue skies do I see!

Nov. 28 - Dec.5!


Thanks Chris!

[jnfr2424]

It's COLD down here! It keeps saying 70 but it's cold!! I know I'm a thin-skinned Floridian now, but even my folks form Nebraska here this week have been shocked. My dad, in his best Jaws impression, said "We're gonna need a bigger coat".
Dress warm folks- when the sun goes down it's beyond chilly!

Ditto! Ditto!
We arrived on Thanksgiving and went to the Luau at the Poly for dinner it was windy and cold!!
Saturday was ok in the daytime but then once night hits COLD. We went to Walmart and brought thick sweats to wear for the duration of our trip

[steamboat willy]

Gonna give you a week to change the heavy rain on Dec 10th. That's our first MK Park day! We know it will change two weeks out...mostly sunny and high 70's with a light breeze out of the South.

14 Days...:santa::tree::santa:

[Strmchsr]

Gonna give you a week to change the heavy rain on Dec 10th.

You know voodooland always changes. I definitely wouldn't be worried about it. :mickey:

[jakeybake]

Thanks Chris. I'm down from 12/8-12/12 so I am loving your most recent forecast of dry and in the low to mid 70's. Sounds perfect to me!

I will keep my fingers crossed that it sticks!! Thanks as always for the info!

Jay

[lawgirl]

Thanks Chris. I'm down from 12/8-12/12 so I am loving your most recent forecast of dry and in the low to mid 70's. Sounds perfect to me!

I will keep my fingers crossed that it sticks!! Thanks as always for the info!

Jay

Us too! Same dates. Even mid 60's is sounding good to me right now! Our low tonight is supposed to be 28. I hate cold weather!

[the other micki]

We'll be there Dec. 10th - 17th. Our first visit to Universal Islands of Adventure will be on the 12th, so I hope that if there is rain, it isn't too bad! And thanks for the updates, Chris!

[Strmchsr]

Our first visit to Universal Islands of Adventure will be on the 12th, so I hope that if there is rain, it isn't too bad!

Of course it's voodooland, which is always changing, but even if there is rain, it didn't look like it would last more than 2-3 hours, max.

[lawgirl]

About what time is it getting dark in WDW? It seems like its around 4:30 here. Just curious, as we will be heading to MVMCP around 5ish. Thanks!

[Strmchsr]

About what time is it getting dark in WDW? It seems like its around 4:30 here. Just curious, as we will be heading to MVMCP around 5ish. Thanks!

5:28 is the earliest sunset time and that will actually occur this Sunday (Dec 1). After that sunset starts getting later again so that by Dec 31 it's up to 5:40. Of course, sunrise also gets later going from 7:01 this Sunday morning to 7:18 by Dec 31.

[steamboat willy]

You know your getting close when your dates begin showing up in Chris's Forecast! I know it's still way early, BUT I'm really excited about the possible mid- 80's in the middle of our trip!
We're Single Digit Dancing Today!

:rocker::mickey3::trio::minnie::drummer:

9 Days....:santa::tree::santa:

[rnin02]

We'll be there Dec. 10th - 17th. Our first visit to Universal Islands of Adventure will be on the 12th, so I hope that if there is rain, it isn't too bad! And thanks for the updates, Chris!

Those are our dates too! Forecast is looking wonderful!