WDW Weather Forecast - September 30-Oct 16, 2012

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss Sundays), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Sunday pm, September 30, 2012
The high should make it to near 90 today with a few clouds and only a slight chance of a shower. Tomorrow through Sunday looks for highs to stay generally 87-89. There will be a 50-50 chance of a thunderstorm each day through Friday and then dropping to about a 30% chance on Saturday and Sunday. No all day rains. Just passing thunderstorms.

Long range...Oct 8-16 doesn't show signs of any significant rain. Oct 8-13 highs will stay in the mid to upper 80s. The latest models show a significant trough moving in on Oct 14 that could bring a little rain, but would definitely bring cooler temps-upper 70s to around 80-for Oct 14-16 if that turns out to be correct. Actually it could even get down to low to mid 70s for Oct 16. It's still voodoo, though, and models often change so don't get too excited about that cooler air just yet.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
At 12:30 pm CDT, Houston and LA are reporting very minor delays. For tomorrow, the best delay chance will be over AL and GA.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics :fan:
Nadine is still a hurricane with 90 mph winds. It will likely loop over its own path again on Tuesday as it continues to go in circles and meander. It probably will move less than 250 miles in the next five days. It should stay tropical much of that time, which is remarkable, because by Wednesday, it will have been around for 22 days, possibly surpassing the former longevity mark held by 1971’s Tropical Storm Ginger.

Nothing else of interest going on.

See the 2012 Hurricane Policy for WDW HERE (http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/faq/hurricane-policy/).

[pianobabe]

Thank you for all you do. :mickey::number1:

[cuteduck223]

Woohoo!! My trip dates entered voodooland today! It's time to celebrate! (I know..gotta wait at least 10 more days before I get anything accurate)...still...dance with me! :yay:

Hey, get up, get loud

Start pumpin' up the party now

Hey, get up, get loud

Start pumpin' up the party now...

[zipadeedoodah]

Yeah, the "ghost" of Isaac worries me a little. We are driving down on Saturday and will arrive Saturday night. I hope I don't have to drive through any downpours/heavy winds. Keeping my fingers crossed for sure! Thanks for keeping an eye on things and for all the updates!!

[Strmchsr]

We are driving down on Saturday and will arrive Saturday night. I hope I don't have to drive through any downpours/heavy winds.

It'll just depend on where it ends up. Right now it looks like if it goes towards Pensacola it would be Saturday morning. If it goes a little further east towards northern Florida it would be Saturday evening late into Sunday morning. Obviously if it heads towards central Florida (the most unlikely solution right now) it would be Monday before landfall. I would say be prepared to drive in at least some heavy rain and a little wind along I-10 if you come down I-65 and over that direction. I don't think it will be too bad, but you might need to slow down for a while. If you're coming down I-75 from Atlanta the impact should be reduced somewhat. Hopefully we'll know more tomorrow when we can see how this thing begins to develop (or not).

[zipadeedoodah]

Ok. Yeah, we'll be driving in on I-75. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on it myself too! Thanks!

[mickeyman42]

It seems like everyone here in newfoundland is watching leslie very closely. Could be a cat 2 or even 3 here next week which if that actually happens would be unprecidented for our area.

[Strmchsr]

It seems like everyone here in newfoundland is watching leslie very closely. Could be a cat 2 or even 3 here next week which if that actually happens would be unprecidented for our area.

I'm sure that's a little nerve-wracking. The good news, as I was just writing in the tropics update, is that Hurricane Michael is helping pull Leslie a little further east. The most recent models at most show St. John's getting a brush from the western ("good") side of the storm. It also shows Leslie being much weaker. Cat 1 tops. None of this is set in stone, but I'm not expecting Newfoundland to get a big hit from Leslie.

[mydisneygirls]

The GFS continues to show a tropical depression, or weak tropical storm, bringing heavy rain to WDW for Sept 21-22 but that's still voodoo and nothing to worry about just yet.

Okay, I won't worry just yet....even though I'll be arriving on the 22nd! I hope this changes.

[lawgirl]

Okay, I won't worry just yet....even though I'll be arriving on the 22nd! I hope this changes.

Me too! Hoping for the best!

[Tygger7]

I've been seeing a lot of "doom & gloom" for the weather next week (9/16-9/22)...not that I really trust the "canned" weather sites, but I'm curious. Should I just expect the normal afternoon shower routine, or is there something more major in the works?

And thanks so much for all your weather reports! It's always so exciting when your dates venture into voodoo-land. :thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

Should I just expect the normal afternoon shower routine, or is there something more major in the works

A front could bring some showers on Monday, though it doesn't look like a total wash-out. Other than that, just normal pop-up stuff next week. About a 1 in 3 chance a thunderstorm moves over each day and even that would be fairly brief.

[Strmchsr]

Hey, everyone. We're having some issues with the boards where I'm unable to update my forecast post. Hopefully by tomorrow it'll be back. Until then, let me just say the next two weeks still look pretty normal. Today through Monday highs will be near 90 with isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Next Tuesday a front moves in that could definitely bring some showers and thunderstorms. The front stalls slightly and thunderstorms remain possible on Wednesday. That should mean highs in the low 80s by Thursday and mid 80s for Sept 21. Sept 22-27 highs stay in the mid to upper 80s with isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Sept 28-29 should be cooler with a frontal passage and highs near 80.

I don't see any tropical issues. The pattern is not favorable at all for a Florida strike.

[Disney Hungarian]

Thanks for the update, Chris.
I am now in voodooland. I am very excited about the cooler weather moving in. I am also very happy to know that I will not be driving in "tropical" weather again too.:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

I am also very happy to know that I will not be driving in "tropical" weather again too.:mickey:

I think you'll be okay this time around. :D

[lawgirl]

Thanks for the update! Almost a week away!

[mydisneygirls]

Just curious -- going Sept 22 through Oct 4. Should I expect high humidity also??

[Strmchsr]

Just curious -- going Sept 22 through Oct 4. Should I expect high humidity also??

Well, it's a little relative. For those of us who live in the Deep South I would say no, things should be better by then. For you, it will feel more humid than at home, and I'm sure you'll feel it for at least the first couple of days, but it won't be too bad.

[LandFan]

Awesome!! I am now officially in VOODOOLAND!!! YAY - go me, Yay - go me!

Thanks for the info Chris - it also sounds like maybe we won't be killed with heat and humidity this time - DH would LOVE cooler weather!!!

[Strmchsr]

I think you'll definitely be okay with the heat. No signs of any above normal temps through early October right now.

[nat]

Just want to say thanks Chris, I have been following this thread for over a week! We leave in three days!!! DH wants to know where I am getting all this great info on the weather!!! You have it all over the "other ";) weather websites!!! :number1:

[lawgirl]

Thanks so much for all the updates! We leave Saturday morning! So, no hurricanes this trip? And no 100 degree weather either...thank goodness!

[Strmchsr]

You have it all over the "other ";) weather websites!!! :number1:

Thank you for your kind words. I'm glad to help everyone I can. :mickey:


So, no hurricanes this trip? And no 100 degree weather either...thank goodness!

I think I can say with total certainty - no hurricanes this trip and no 100 degree days. It should be pretty nice for you.

[lawgirl]

Thank you for your kind words. I'm glad to help everyone I can. :mickey:



I think I can say with total certainty - no hurricanes this trip and no 100 degree days. It should be pretty nice for you.


Awesome! You just made my day!

[BiloxiMom]

With a check in date only 20 days away (Oct. 11) do you think we'll catch a break and have cooler weather in place by then? Not liking the 90's with high humidity... not. at. all. And thanks for always taking care of us weather-worryers.

[Strmchsr]

With a check in date only 20 days away (Oct. 11) do you think we'll catch a break and have cooler weather in place by then?

You definitely won't have any 90s. Those are mostly gone now except for the heat index. The issue of the humidity is a little harder. It just depends on whether a good cold front dives far enough south to bring some drier continental air. And that's certainly possible. Not out of the question at all!

[BiloxiMom]

YAY! Any lower humidity, lower temps would be great! See what you can do, OK? LOL:blush:

[Strmchsr]

YAY! Any lower humidity, lower temps would be great! See what you can do, OK? LOL:blush:

I'll make sure to forward your request to the Boss. :mickey:

[Dyanna]

According to accuweather it looks like 75% chance of rain the entire week were at WDW (Oct 5 - 13). Ugh. Is this an all day rain or chance of? I know it still to early but its not looking good so far.

[Strmchsr]

According to accuweather it looks like 75% chance of rain the entire week were at WDW (Oct 5 - 13). Ugh. Is this an all day rain or chance of? I know it still to early but its not looking good so far.

1.) Accuweather is a waste of time beyond 24-48 hours. It's only computer generated algorithms based on 1 model with no human interaction, so don't worry about that.
2.) Even my forecast beyond 7 days has to be taken with many grains of salt. It's the process of diminishing returns. By the time the models get 7+ days out the variables are almost infinite and so no forecast is truly reliable. We can see overall patterns, but not a true day-to-day forecast.
3.) So, looking at that long range right now, that forecast sounds 100% completely off. I'd say a 50-50 chance at most of a brief (1 hour or less) afternoon thunderstorm. Those are pretty common in Florida (almost daily May-October) as the sea breeze forms in the afternoon but they aren't a big deal. Just go inside for a little while and you're fine. At the moment I see no sign of any big rain event that you would have to worry about. October is generally a pretty warm and dry month so unless something tropical moves in I think you'll be fine.

[Dyanna]

Thanks for the reply :-) Will keep looking at your updates as it get closer to our trip. If it does rain at least the lines wont be as long :cool:

[DisneyDawgette]

Now in Voodooland territory! Would it be unwise to be hoping that temps drop some closer to the 10th? :D

[Strmchsr]

Now in Voodooland territory! Would it be unwise to be hoping that temps drop some closer to the 10th? :D

It's not out of the question. Just because the flow looks zonal on the models today doesn't mean it won't show a trough developing tomorrow!

[Wolf]

Thanks StrmChsr!! Heading out tomorrow and wanted to do a last min check here to plan, ponchos in bag but otherwise packed shorts and tshirts! Thanks for all you do!!

[Strmchsr]

Have a great trip!

[Jennifer_and_Chris]

Oh goodness! Our dates are actually in voodoo land now! Oct 14 is our check-in day. I'm so stalking this thread!

[disneynarula]

Thanks for the informative update. We are going to MNNSHP on the 16th. Crossing my fingers that your Voodooland estimations turn out to be correct!