WDW Weather Forecast - June 29-July 15, 2012

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss Sundays), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Friday pm, June 29, 2012
It's going to be hot for a while. Please see post #27 for full details on how to handle the heat and the dangers of humidity. Looks like today will be about 91. Now, most of the forecast pages had 94-95. This is because the models don't factor in soil moisture. With all the rain from Debby the sun's energy is being used in evaporating the moisture which keeps the temps down, though the humidity is through the roof. Even though I think the actual air temperature will stay short of the upper 90s the models are saying this weekend, the heat index will be well over 100. It's going to be miserable so be safe. Tomorrow through Monday highs will be 93-95. There's almost 0 chance of rain due to the sinking air from the ridge. I can't rule it out 100%, but almost. The ridge will weaken on Tuesday so Tuesday through Friday will run 91-93 with a chance of a sea breeze thunderstorm returning each afternoon.

Long range...Not much change for July 7-12. Highs will be low to mid 90s with a 1 in 3 chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. July 13-15 looks like better rain chances with highs in the low 90s.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
At 1:30 pm CDT, Chicago has some minor delay issues. For tomorrow, DC, MD, PA, NYC, VA, WV, NJ, OH, IN, and IL could see delays.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics :fan:
Nothing to worry about right now.

[Crow]

yep it was a wet day in the parks, but now looks like its ended.

[spoiledraf]

OK. 10th thru the 14th looks pretty good. Cooler would be better for my baby girl who is 5 months prego and may be spending lots of time at the pool instead of the parks!

[andypooh]

much better forecast here than i have been seeing on accuweather. i'll be there 6/23-7/1

[Strmchsr]

much better forecast here than i have been seeing on accuweather. i'll be there 6/23-7/1

You mostly have to ignore the fill-in-your-zip-code sites. Probably what you're seeing on accuweather is the main north american model, the GFS, has been hinting at some tropical mischief for Florida around that timeframe, but most of the other models go against that idea. Accuweather only uses the 1 model with no human interaction so you don't get the full spectrum of ideas like with a human forecaster. The other thing is that sea breeze thunderstorms are possible almost every day but that doesn't translate well into a pure graphical display so it makes it look a lot rainier than it actually is.

[andypooh]

Thanks. I have always trusted your forecasts much more than any of those other sites. I'll continue to keep a close eye on your forecasts the next few days. We will be in WDW in 5 days!!!

[Disney Hungarian]

Hi Chris,
I am supposed to check in to WDW on Monday the 25th. I was hoping for the usual summer weather pattern of: highs in the 90's and 30% chance of afternoon convective thunderstorms. Today, everyone has been blowing my phone up about taking my mom into a hurricane. I trust your forecasts, so let me know when you have a good idea if I should go, or cancel the trip.
Thanks.

[Strmchsr]

Sean, the problem with the potential storm in the Gulf right now is the models are totally divided on it. One of the main, and most usually reliable models, takes it into northern FL and across into the Atlantic. But another of the good models has it drift west eventually into Texas. I'm hoping the afternoon models provide some clarity. Let me say this - I don't think it's going to be a huge deal for Orlando either way. Obviously the westward solution would have much less impact on Orlando, but even the GFS solution would have Debby far enough north that Orlando should deal with some wind and rain, but no threat of closure or anything major. I'll give a full update this afternoon when all of the afternoon models have run.

[andypooh]

We will be in Orlando in less than 24 hours! I am anxiously awaiting today's forecast.

:mickey:

[Catzle]

Me too, I can't believe I am leaving NY to deal with three straight days of rain in Disney, very disappointing!

[slegrant]

I know it's past the seven day forecast but I am happy to hear things should be normal during my visit June 29th through July 11th. We are driving from Texas This monday heading to St. Petersburg for the first leg of our trip arriving Tuesday.....should our weather be okay?

Love the forecast!

[Strmchsr]

I'm jumping on the update right now. Give me about 20 minutes and it'll be posted.

[andypooh]

Won't hold you too it, but what % chance do you think there is that monday and tuesday will be the nicer drier version of the forecast? Thanks

[Catzle]

Sounds like Sat. to Tuesday could be a waste of a vacation :(

So what is there to do if its pouring and high winds all day?

Help please!

[Strmchsr]

So what is there to do if its pouring and high winds all day?

Throw on a poncho and keep going! :mickey: Most everything will be open and going as long as there isn't lightning. Some of my best days in the park have been rain days.

[VWL Mom]

You just made my day! Friday, June 29th DS will turn 17 and it's been set aside for a cabana at CR and some tubing. 92-94 sounds perfect :thumbsup:

[VWL Mom]

Sounds like Sat. to Tuesday could be a waste of a vacation :(

So what is there to do if its pouring and high winds all day?

Help please!

I agree with Chris. Last June that was how the weather was for a couple of our days. We just donned out ponchos and went on our way. Parks were less crowded, kids got to ride what they wanted, we had a great time. My only suggestion would be a pair of water shoes or crocs rather than sneakers if it's really raining.

[Strmchsr]

And, again, it's not going to be an all day rain. Just periods of rain and thunderstorms.

[Disney Hungarian]

Thank you for the updates, Chris.
I decided to go ahead with the WDW trip. I will drive out tomorrow morning. Now I am just hoping that the major rain band stays just south of I-10 until I get to Disney :mickey:
400 miles of nasty weather on the Interstate does not sound fun to me.

[Strmchsr]

Sean, it's going to be REALLY close for you along I-10. I think once you get to I-75 you'll be in better shape. I'd say if you can leave out today and stop over in Tallahassee you'd be better off than leaving tomorrow morning. Ocala or Gainsville would be even better.

[Disney Hungarian]

Thanks again, Chris.
Driving out today was not possible.

[Strmchsr]

Thanks again, Chris.
Driving out today was not possible.

Be safe tomorrow and enjoy your trip!

[Catzle]

Day 3 of pure rain, getting worse. Looks to not clear up until Thursday now but every morning I get up they have pushed it out another day. Not sure if we should pack up and go home. Worst vacation ever!

[Strmchsr]

Day 3 of pure rain, getting worse. Looks to not clear up until Thursday now but every morning I get up they have pushed it out another day. Not sure if we should pack up and go home. Worst vacation ever!

So sorry. Yeah, it's probably going to continue to rain through Wednesday and begin clearing on Thursday. This has been an incredibly frustrating storm, both for those at WDW and for those of us trying to forecast it. Never seen a storm like this in terms of difficulty to nail down what it's going to do.

[Disney Hungarian]

Just arrived and got checked in. Only about 150 miles of I-10 was treacherous. :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Just arrived and got checked in. Only about 150 miles of I-10 was treacherous. :mickey:

I'm so glad to hear you've made it safely! I've been praying for you on that drive today. Have a magical trip! :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Heat Alert

Just so you are aware, it's hot at WDW in the summer. :D This heat can be quite dangerous, though. Because the humidity in Orlando tends to be so high the air can become completely saturated. When this happens the atmosphere will no longer absorb water. That means your sweat won't evaporate. Sweating is not how your body cools off. It cools off as the sweat evaporates, which pulls heat energy off of your body. When the sweat can no longer evaporate your body will overheat in a hurry, just like a car engine that's lost its radiator. So, if you are at WDW during the summer the best advice is go early, go back to your resort during the afternoon, and enjoy the evening hours. Second, drinks a LOT of water - before, during, and after your time in the parks. By the time you feel thirsty you're already dehydrated. Third, take plenty of breaks. Get inside as much as possible. Go ride Carousel of Progress or shop for a few minutes. Wait in line for POTC - anything it takes to stay cool for a while. Heat exhaustion and heat stroke can ruin your vacation in a hurry so please take these few precautions.