WDW Weather Forecast - January 31-Feb 16, 2012

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss Sundays), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Tuesday am, January 31, 2012
Another beautiful day today with a high around 75. Tomorrow will get near 80 with a very slight chance of a brief pop up afternoon shower. A weak front will move in on Thursday. The high should be 75-77. The rain chance won't be huge. The NAM actually shows nothing but a few sprinkles. The GFS shows a few more scattered showers. Right now I lean more towards the NAM solution. Either way, this won't be a big rain event. The front won't have much impact and Friday through Sunday the highs should be 78-80, then 76-78 for Monday. The next chance of rain comes on Tuesday, which should have a high of 75. Again, this event doesn't look like much of anything. Just a few widely scattered showers. The high over Florida is pushing all rain events to the north.

Long range...Feb 8-10 looks completely dry with highs in the mid to upper 70s. A strong front looks like it'll move in on Feb 11 with thunderstorms. That said, I don't really like the look of this front and I imagine it'll be gone on the next model run or two. The models are being incredibly inconsistent, but it looks like a very real possibility some much colder air might come south around the middle of the month. Alaska is suffering through a brutally cold winter and eventually that air will move south. Feb 12-13 might see highs around 60 with lows in the upper 30s. Feb 14 should stay clear and warm into the upper 60s, then to around 70 for Feb 15-16.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
No big issues today. For tomorrow, there is a slight chance of delays over Texas, but nothing major.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[DisneyorBust]

Thanks Chris!
I will be following your forecasts closely, not yet though :D still "voodoo land " as we are scheduled to arrive on the 10th.

[Strmchsr]

Well, Eric, the start of your vacation leaves voodooland tomorrow so it's getting closer!

[TinkerbellT421]

Strmchaser, any idea of what it will look like for the 21st - 28th yet or too early? I'm getting anxious lol

[Strmchsr]

Strmchaser, any idea of what it will look like for the 21st - 28th yet or too early? I'm getting anxious lol

Too early right now. The general pattern seems to be mild with occasional cold snaps, but it's too uncertain to give any specifics. Give it 3-4 more days and the picture should start to become clearer.

[TinkerbellT421]

Too early right now. The general pattern seems to be mild with occasional cold snaps, but it's too uncertain to give any specifics. Give it 3-4 more days and the picture should start to become clearer.

Great thank you :) DBF was asking me to post that, he is about as anxious as I am. :thumbsup:

[ChewyStriker]

I'll be waiting anxiously too! We leave 28th for the world and will be there through Feb. 1! Would LOVE temps near 70. :cloud9:

[Jared]

Hey Chris,

How bad are we looking for Jan. 11? Thanks for all your hard work!

[Strmchsr]

How bad are we looking for Jan. 11?

Jared, right now I don't see any signs of heavy rain or severe weather. Looks like just off and on normal rain showers through the day. Not a constant, but enough you'll need a poncho most of the day. Of course, that's right on the cusp of voodooland, so the timing and intensity might change over the next couple of days, but most models seem pretty sold on the idea of rain coming.

[First Time to Florida]

We are going to be at Disney from Jan 12-19 and would like to take one day and see the ocean. I'm curious what to expect for weather at Cocoa Beach. Is there activity at the beach year round?

[disneyfan328]

so we are leaving friday the 6th and staying until the 16th and Its looking like mostly 60's - 70's which is great i'll take it over the 20's & 30's here in pgh. How wet is next wednesday looking? are we talking all day rain? or just some showers? we've never been this time of year before so we are trying to pack and I'm thinking jeans and t's with some sweatshirts and maybe a pair of shorts or 2?

any help or advice is appreciated.

[disneyfan328]

oops sorry I should have read up a few posts it looks like off and on showers throughout the day? I won't be able to check after friday morning because I won't have internet access so again any advice is appreciated.

[Strmchsr]

oops sorry I should have read up a few posts it looks like off and on showers throughout the day? I won't be able to check after friday morning because I won't have internet access so again any advice is appreciated.

I still don't think it will be an all day rain. The models have sped it up some this morning. We'll see if that trend continues on the afternoon run. If that's the case the rain would be out by early afternoon. You'll definitely want jeans that day and a sweatshirt or something warm up top. You'll also want a good poncho. With a poncho in hand you can still enjoy the parks quite a lot on a rainy day. There will be periods of heavy rain, but it looks mostly like light, scattered showers. Check this afternoon for an update with all the model runs.

[Jared]

Looks like the middle and end of next week won't be all that bad then. So I can stop worrying now, Chris? ;)

[DisneyorBust]

As always, thanks Chris!
It looks like I need to return to my attic, I'm an optimist so I didn't grab the ponchos. Lucky for us, we can depend on your expertise, so off I go for the poncho's! :D

[Strmchsr]

It looks like I need to return to my attic, I'm an optimist so I didn't grab the ponchos. Lucky for us, we can depend on your expertise, so off I go for the poncho's! :D

Keep that optimism, Eric. Maybe the front will pick up a little steam and be out before the park opens. It's definitely possible! :mickey:

[Jared]

Keep that optimism, Eric. Maybe the front will pick up a little steam and be out before the park opens. It's definitely possible! :mickey:
That's what I like to hear. My flight's supposed to land a little before noon on the 11th. Hope there's no weather-related problems!

[Strmchsr]

That's what I like to hear. My flight's supposed to land a little before noon on the 11th. Hope there's no weather-related problems!

Right now I don't expect any weather-related delays regardless. Even if it's raining it doesn't look like the rain would be significant enough to interfere with your plane. Expect a little turbulence, though from Atlanta south since you'll be flying right along the front.

[moobear67]

I'm praying for nice weather on the 20th-23rd!!!

[mouseketeer mom]

Ok Chris, this is my nightmare, that it would be cold and warm alternating days Jan into Feb., and stormy too. Ugh. This packing is a beast.

[Strmchsr]

Ok Chris, this is my nightmare, that it would be cold and warm alternating days Jan into Feb., and stormy too. Ugh. This packing is a beast.

Yeah, I know. It's about the worst possible scenario. The factors are falling into place for that general pattern. However, hang tight on the packing for now until we get close and see what the specifics actually turn out to be.

[DisneyorBust]

Well Chris, ponchos are packed. Now I just have to wait until Monday to know what clothes to pack! I like the temps that your predicting, the rain, not so much. :D Either way DD and I will be in WDW, making memories! It's all good.
Thanks again.

[Jared]

Hope today brings some better news for me, Chris! Not feeling too great about the weather prospects for my trip next week. :)

[TinkerbellT421]

Praying the news changes for the weather for our trip when we leave on the 21st.

[Trev&Ev Mom]

Praying the news changes for the weather for our trip when we leave on the 21st.

:ditto: We'll be there the 19th to the 22nd...fingers crossed for sunny and 70's. Although anything will be better than the weather in NY (even though we've been pretty lucky here so far :secret:)

[Trev&Ev Mom]

Jan 19-22nd...nice...thank you!!!! :D

[Jared]

Love following this horse race. Looking at your latest forecast, Chris, it looks we definitely have to prepare for rain Wednesday, but it doesn't seem like it'll be that bad. Fair assessment?

[Strmchsr]

it looks we definitely have to prepare for rain Wednesday, but it doesn't seem like it'll be that bad. Fair assessment?

I think that's absolutely fair. I think morning and early afternoon should be clear. Scattered light rain could start in the afternoon, but it looks like the heaviest rain could come in the evening. So, the majority of the day looks okay and even the evening should be fine if you have a poncho and are ready for it.

[DisneyorBust]

Thanks for all of the updates Chris, we do appreciate your time and effort to assist us with our travel plans!
Next up for DD #1 and I, a short nights sleep and an early flight to Orlando! :D

[Strmchsr]

Next up for DD #1 and I, a short nights sleep and an early flight to Orlando! :D

Have a great flight! I have to teach 4 classes at the college tomorrow then I'm jumping in my car and heading to WDW, too. I hope you have a magical time. :mickey:

[TinkerbellT421]

Strmchaser, what are the chances of that weather changing slightly before now and then?? Hoping for possible good news for that week :(

[Jared]

Have a great flight! I have to teach 4 classes at the college tomorrow then I'm jumping in my car and heading to WDW, too. I hope you have a magical time. :mickey:
When will you be there, Chris? I'd love to say hello!

[Strmchsr]

When will you be there, Chris? I'd love to say hello!

I will be in the parks on Thursday. Maybe tomorrow evening. I'll be teaching the rest of the time. Send me a PM with what park you'll be in on Thursday and if I'm around we can definitely set up a time to say hi.

[Buttercup]

Hey Chris -
I've been looking at your forecast vs. the one on the Weather Channel's website.
Their 10-day is predicting much warmer weather than yours right up until January 24th.

For instance, your forecast says the rest of this week will be between the low 60's to low 70's... but their site says low 70's to low 80's for this week.

And for next week your forecast says "dry with highs in the low 70's" for January 22-24.
TWC's forecast says it will be between 79-82F those days.

I know that 10-days out, it's still relatively voodooland, but I'm wondering -- why such a different in the forecasts? Do you look at different models than them?

For the record, I've always trusted Stormchaser's forecasts... but for my trip Jan. 28-Feb. 4 I'm hoping for something a little closer to what the weather channel is predicting! :D

[Strmchsr]

I know that 10-days out, it's still relatively voodooland, but I'm wondering -- why such a different in the forecasts? Do you look at different models than them?

We'll see what today's update says, but the big reason for the difference between my forecast and any of the "fill-in-your-zip-code" sites is that those sites have no human interaction. The computers just plug in data from 1 model (which is also why it changes every 6 hours). I look at all of the models when I do a forecast and also use experience in knowing when models are overemphasizing something, or under doing it. For instance, last week the models were showing low 70s for Friday and Saturday, but I knew from experience they usually underestimate the impact of shallow pool of cold air, which is why I said low 60s (and I was still about 3 degrees too high for Friday). Hope that helps!

[clausjo]

For the record, I've always trusted Stormchaser's forecasts... but for my trip Jan. 28-Feb. 4 I'm hoping for something a little closer to what the weather channel is predicting!


I'll be there from the 31st through the 5th and completely agree with you!

[Buttercup]

We'll see what today's update says, but the big reason for the difference between my forecast and any of the "fill-in-your-zip-code" sites is that those sites have no human interaction.
Yeah, I guess a human element is needed to accurately assess the situation. Thanks!

[Strmchsr]

Yeah, I guess a human element is needed to accurately assess the situation. Thanks!

The good news for you is that since I last updated on Saturday (I was traveling Sunday and yesterday) most of the models are in pretty good agreement now on keeping things warmer through the end of the month.

[Buttercup]

YAYYYYY! Chris, you are awesome. I know you don't create the weather, but you sure do keep us informed! :mickey:

[mouseketeer mom]

Buttercup, I'm there the exact time as you and hoping for warmer weather too!!! Tell me, how are you packing for this trip? I'm waaay overpacked at this point.

[Buttercup]

Buttercup, I'm there the exact time as you and hoping for warmer weather too!!! Tell me, how are you packing for this trip? I'm waaay overpacked at this point.
I'm still holding off. My guess is, we'll be packing 4 pairs of shorts, plus 2-3 pairs of pants. T-shirts for every day. Then easy things like hoodies and light jackets just for in the evenings when it's cooler.
I might pare that down a bit if I decide to do a load of laundry part-way through the week.

[Disney Hungarian]

The first days of my upcoming trip have made it to voodooland!!!

Let the tentative packing list begin:
7 pairs of pants
7 pairs of shorts
7 short sleeved shirts
7 long sleeved shirts
hats, gloves, earfmuffs, wind breaker, hoodies, light jacket, ski coat, boots, sneakers, and sandals/flip flops/water shoes. :thumbsup:

[sommer]

Let's hope the early Feb. storms stay away! I am so excited to see my dates in the forecast!

[mouseketeer mom]

The first days of my upcoming trip have made it to voodooland!!!

Let the tentative packing list begin:
7 pairs of pants
7 pairs of shorts
7 short sleeved shirts
7 long sleeved shirts
hats, gloves, earfmuffs, wind breaker, hoodies, light jacket, ski coat, boots, sneakers, and sandals/flip flops/water shoes. :thumbsup:

Hahahaahahaahaahaaaa!!!! Same here!!!!!!!!

[Fangorn]

Hey Chris, something you may not be aware of that you may, or may not, want to include in the Travel Impact section: Phoenix airport has one runway under construction and ALL flights into and out of PHX are affected. FAA is restricting traffic into PHX so as to avoid planes in a holding pattern waiting for runway clearance. My flight from Portland to MCO was delayed an hour since we had to go through Phoenix. I was told our return flight would be delayed as well.

Thanks for your work.
Steve

[Strmchsr]

Thanks, Steve. I see occasionally on the FAA website minor delays in Phoenix due to the construction, but it doesn't seem to be every day, which is why I don't report it in advance, but I appreciate the heads up.

[Fangorn]

Chris,
Understood. I have no knowledge of how they report these things. When I was at PDX, I was talking with my friends @ SWA. They told me that every flight from Portland to Phoenix has been delayed by the FAA by anything from 15 to 90 minutes. This has been happening for awhile, apparently.

thanks for your work, (and specifically for the great forecast for this upcoming week:thumbsup:)

Steve