WDW Weather Forecast - Dec 31, 2011 - Jan 16, 2012

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss Sundays), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Saturday pm, December 31, 2011
:newyear: I pray 2012 is magical one for all of you. With the high hitting 78 today it's about perfect in WDW. The first day of 2012 will be similar with a high 77-79. Some light rain is possible Monday morning, but nothing significant. The high should be 62-64 and blustery. Tuesday will be even cooler with a high 56-58 and a low 36-38. The wind chill will still be a bit of a factor. Fortunately, all the models are now on board with this solution, unlike a couple of days ago when several were still showing low to mid 70s for next week. That's why you have to learn which models handle which kinds of situations best and why the "fill-in-your-zip-code" sites are fairly worthless more than a couple of days out. Look for a warming trend to begin Wednesday with a high 60-62 and a low 38-40. Look for a high around 65 with a low around 40 on Thursday, then 69-71 with a low around 45 on Friday. Saturday should be 71-73 with a low near 50. No rain chances this week other than the slim one on Monday.

Long range...Jan 8 should be clear and in the low 70s. The next chance of rain arrives Jan 9. Jan 10 looks clear and around 70, but another low develops on the stalled front and Jan 11 looks pretty wet (remember, this is voodooland) and cold. Jan 12-15 looks dry with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. The next threat of rain comes on Jan 16.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
No big issues today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[brivers222]

Weather reports sounds AWESOME! we are both in for a wonder time :)

Right now Accuweather is predicting some Snow/Freezing Rain/Rain starting Thursday 12/8 - 12/10... Hopefully our 8:44am flight can take off on the 9th without much of a delay... I need to get to DISNEY!!!!

But as you said before Accuweather is pretty unreliable more than 3 days out lol.

[Strmchsr]

Right now Accuweather is predicting some Snow/Freezing Rain/Rain starting Thursday 12/8 - 12/10... Hopefully our 8:44am flight can take off on the 9th without much of a delay... I need to get to DISNEY!!!!

Of course, it's voodooland, but looking at the models this afternoon it appears the freezing rain possibility will hold off until the 10th. Timing won't be set for a few days but at least today it looks like you'll be okay. Maybe I'll run into you down there. :mickey:

[RockinRobin]

We are not going the first week of Dec this year and of course the weather is going to be good. The last 3 years when we have gone the first week in Dec it has been cold and colder! Last year we frooze it got down to 32 the night we went to Mickey's party!

[Tygger7]

First, I just wanted to say I love reading your weather reports! (Especially when I'm planning a trip!) Have a question for you....we're going to be driving to WDW from Columbus, Ohio on Saturday, Dec. 10th. (We plan on leaving around 4am, which should put us into POR around 9pm.) We drive the coastal route (I77-I26-I95) and I'm trying to find the best resource to check the weather for our drive. I'm mainly worried about severe weather (snow, freezing rain, etc.)...any suggestions?

[brivers222]

Of course, it's voodooland, but looking at the models this afternoon it appears the freezing rain possibility will hold off until the 10th. Timing won't be set for a few days but at least today it looks like you'll be okay. Maybe I'll run into you down there. :mickey:

Maybe you will! I will have the custom made Mickey ears groom top hat (not that current one they sell...:ack:)

I will also sometimes be wearing a Black or white (i have both) Tuxedo Hockey Jersey with the sleeves lettered 11's and the back lettered GROOM 12... For our 11.12.11 wedding date ;)

We had a pretty decent coating of snow over night and on my way to work this morning, so I followed the Delta app tracking and noticed that even in the snow the 8:40 flight took off and landed at the correct time!

[Strmchsr]

We drive the coastal route (I77-I26-I95) and I'm trying to find the best resource to check the weather for our drive. I'm mainly worried about severe weather (snow, freezing rain, etc.)...any suggestions?

Right now I don't see any problems at all for you on that drive down, but for that kind of trip, Accuweather has a weather app that can keep you updated on severe weather events. You would just have to add the major cities along your route. That would be the best way to check while in the car. Of course, I'll keep the WDW forecast updated and you can check that, and the travel section tells of major severe weather or delay events, but that would be your best bet for local stuff. The other option is a keep a check on the DOT sites of the states you're driving through. They will have updated interstate info.

[Strmchsr]

I will also sometimes be wearing a Black or white (i have both) Tuxedo Hockey Jersey with the sleeves lettered 11's and the back lettered GROOM 12... For our 11.12.11 wedding date ;)

That should be pretty easy to spot. I'll keep my eyes out for you.:mickey: I generally wear Penguins hockey jerseys, but that doesn't really separate me out from the general crowd.

[brivers222]

That should be pretty easy to spot. I'll keep my eyes out for you.:mickey: I generally wear Penguins hockey jerseys, but that doesn't really separate me out from the general crowd.

unless you wear that baby blue one... coming from Detroit all i can say is Penguins.... :sick: hahaha

[Disney Hungarian]

Chris,
I know you have no control over the weather. I know you just let us know what will or in some cases, should happen. Still, I want to hug your neck for the 11-17th forecast. Mom and I froze last year during the same dates. This year looks better than I could ever have imagined. If you happen across a short man pushing a beautiful silver haired mom in a wheelchair, be sure to say "hi."

[brivers222]

Chris,
I know you have no control over the weather. I know you just let us know what will or in some cases, should happen. Still, I want to hug your neck for the 11-17th forecast. Mom and I froze last year during the same dates. This year looks better than I could ever have imagined. If you happen across a short man pushing a beautiful silver haired mom in a wheelchair, be sure to say "hi."

Amen....right?! this is so awesome :)

[Strmchsr]

If you happen across a short man pushing a beautiful silver haired mom in a wheelchair, be sure to say "hi."

I'm fairly happy with it, too, right now. Hoping voodooland doesn't change!

I'll definitely be sure to do that. And if you see a 6'4 goateed hockey-jersey wearing guy run by chasing an 11 and 6 yr old, be sure to do the same. :mickey:

[sndral]

Thanks for the update Chris. I was there last year this week and it was so cold - I have souvenir Micky gloves as a result. The year before was cool, but not freezing like last year -so I'll happily take 70's for 12/9-12/19, this year.
Just hoping California stays clear weatherwise so my flights aren't impacted - I'm direct SFO-MCO.

[Strmchsr]

Just hoping California stays clear weatherwise so my flights aren't impacted - I'm direct SFO-MCO.

Looking at the maps right now I see nothing weatherwise that would cause delays for you. Should be an easy flight.

[SurferStitch]

I feel much better about what I packed now. In fact, I think I'll take a few pairs of shorts out of my bags. Your forecast is now more in line with what I've been reading on Accuweather for the past few days.

Thanks!!

:drive:Now we just gotta make the drive down! :car:

[Strmchsr]

I feel much better about what I packed now. In fact, I think I'll take a few pairs of shorts out of my bags. Your forecast is now more in line with what I've been reading on Accuweather for the past few days.

I'll be arriving at CBR on Friday, too, so maybe I'll see you down there. :mickey:

As I've mentioned before, I don't trust Accuweather (or the Weather Channel site) any further than I could throw the computer simply because no human interacts with the forecast. It's just 1 computer plugging in numbers based on one model. Accuweather's model has been cooler than the other models, but it hasn't been that accurate the last couple of months, so I was discounting it. The other models lined up with it yesterday, but then they all moderated a little more today. So, we'll have to see. The boundary pushing 100 miles north or south will make the difference between upper 60s at WDW and upper 70s. That kind of small scale difference is almost impossible for the models more than a couple of days out.

[SurferStitch]

We arrive on Saturday, but we're getting down there a day early and grabbing a room at the AS Sports for Friday night.

Like I said, if you see a grown woman carrying a dressed up plush Stich backpack (he'll be an elf, Santa, Jedi, etc), that's me! Make sure you stop me and say HI!

[Strmchsr]

Like I said, if you see a grown woman carrying a dressed up plush Stich backpack (he'll be an elf, Santa, Jedi, etc), that's me! Make sure you stop me and say HI!

I will do that. Hope to see you down there!:mickey:

[Red Randal]

I'm going to be in Tampa/Clearwater Dec. 26-29. I know that for a rough estimate, these forecasts will work for there...but if there's anything significant you see those days for the bay area, let me know. I'd really appreciate it.

Keep up the great work!!

[Strmchsr]

I'm going to be in Tampa/Clearwater Dec. 26-29. I know that for a rough estimate, these forecasts will work for there...but if there's anything significant you see those days for the bay area, let me know. I'd really appreciate it.

Nothing significant for that time frame. Right now the 26th looks potentially wet, but Dec 27-29 should be clear. I'll let you know if that changes. You're right, though. You can use the WDW forecast as a pretty general guide for Tampa since WDW is only an hour or so east of Tampa. The details may vary a little, but the big scale stuff will be the same.

[disneykid@hrt]

We are heading down Sunday and will be there throughout the week... Is it "real" 70's???? This will be our third year doing this week in January, and it has quite literally been freezing!! Will we even need our hoodies? Should I pack shorts? We are from Northern Indiana where the high today was around 35. Is it chilly at night? I am blown away by these temps!!!!

[Strmchsr]

It does get cool at night, especially around water. You'll definitely need something for the evening. Let me also thrown in a caveat that next week is still somewhat in question. I think through Monday the forecast is pretty solid, but a couple of the models turn things considerably cooler after that. The main models that I trust show temps around 70, which is the forecast I'm going with, but just wanted to throw out that warning that things could change. Not down to 35 like you're facing, but mid 60s wouldn't be out of the question.

[disneyfan328]

Ok So I have been watching the updates on here regarding the weather and most of our upcoming trip is still in voodoo land (I think anyway!) we are leaving afternoon of 1/6 and staying through 1/16.

At this point I have no idea what to pack:confused: It appears from some sights that there could be sunny days with highs in the upper 70's to 80 and then the forecast on here that says we are looking at mostly 60-70 and wet. How on earth am I going to fit clothes to match that much of a different forecast without going over 50 lbs! lol Anyway just trying to figure out how much longer I should wait to really decide on everyone's clothes.

Thanks for all of the weather updates :mickey: I appreciate all of your honest input!

[White Rose]

At this point I have no idea what to pack:confused: It appears from some sights that there could be sunny days with highs in the upper 70's to 80 and then the forecast on here that says we are looking at mostly 60-70 and wet. How on earth am I going to fit clothes to match that much of a different forecast without going over 50 lbs! lol Anyway just trying to figure out how much longer I should wait to really decide on everyone's clothes.



Honestly, the key is layering. I'm going to be there Jan 8-Jan 16 and I was also down there at the same time last year. I brought a lot of t-shirts with me but I also had a few sweatshirts and a jacket. Generally, I was comfortable in a T-shirt and my lightweight jacket, but I also tend to get warm very quickly. I might recommend bringing t-shirts and carrying a sweatshirt/hoodie with you through the parks--you'd only have to pack one or two of these. And then, you could use a lightweight jacket on TOP of the hoodie/sweatshirt if you get colder.

Hope that helps! I also recommend just bringing jeans and not worrying about shorts/capris.

[January-2007]

Thank you!

[disneyfan328]

Hope that helps! I also recommend just bringing jeans and not worrying about shorts/capris.

Thanks I figured on some t's and sweatshirts as I am sure the evenings will still be cool (and I heard epcot is the coldest espc. with the water) but if it is going to be mid to upper 70 or even 80 we are going to want shorts as with as cold as it will be in PGH this week (with the snow too) its probably going to feel warm to us. I am also one that tends to get warm easily. I guess I am going to just gather some stuff up today and tomorrow and then wait to pack the suitcases until closer to the end of the week.

thanks :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Right now I would say wait as long as you can before packing. With airports limiting baggage wait you don't want to pack anything you don't have to. The sites that are calling for such warm temps have been way too warm all season. Just 3 days ago those same sites were saying this week would be mid-70s. That's because of no human input and only data from 1 computer model. Not very reliable. As always this time of the year, it will depend on how deep the trough is. For your trip I think it'll be 2-3 days before I'll have a really solid idea of what to expect.