Am I figuring this wrong?

[Janmac]

My sister has points in a timeshare and exchanges through RCI into Disney. We did this in 2008 (OKW - actually II then) and 2010 (VWL). Those exchanges were so effortless that we thought, hey, we'll exchange again, in 2012, and back to VWL, which we really really like.

Our cousin and her family want to join us, so we are 9.

Right off (maybe in early September), we got a week in a one bedroom at VWL for 15 April 2012, which is when we wanted to go. :thumbsup: So now we're looking for a villa for 5 of us, since 4 will stay in the one bedroom at VWL. My sister has plenty of points for another villa.

What I figured is that VWL has only 44 two bedrooms. Not a very big pool to draw from, even tho that week should be slow. So we were thinking BLT or OKW would be plenty okay, and would greatly increase the size of the pool, especially since we could stay at a one bedroom, as well as a two bedroom.

Counting the one and two bedrooms at BLT and OKW (Disney itself says we can put 4 adults and a seven year old in a one bedroom at OKW), and the 2 bedroom villas at VWL, there are over 800 possibles. And we're good with either 15 or 14 or even, in a pinch, 13 April 2012 as check-in dates.

Apparently I am figuring wrong because in the last two months we have not seen one of those villas open up for any of those 3 dates. We've seen lots of 22 April and 27 April but that weekend is woefully absent.

We are beginning to doubt whether something will materialize. Some of the posts on here give me hope (O'MalleytheAlleyCat and Chic-a-pin particularly) for awhile. :(

We can book two rooms at Shades of Green if a villa doesn't materialize. Which is looking better and better all the time.

I realize most on this forum don't exchange thru RCI but am I thinking wrong? I was never good with probabilities in math class - are we not likely at all to see one villa out of those 800+ somewhere for any of those 3 dates that [slow] weekend?

Jan (aka faint of heart)

[Aurora]

Couple things --

First, in September, depending on the date you called, you were close to the 7-month mark for making ressies for non-home-resort people. Even so, you probably got extremely lucky with the 1-bedroom at the VWL, one of the smallest DVC resorts on property. My guess is that someone cancelled and you were able to scoop it up at the exact right time.

Second, April 13 is the end of the week after Easter, one of the busiest weeks of the year at WDW. That weekend includes the 14th and 15th. So all of these dates are likely going to give you trouble.

Keep trying. I would call every day and just try to add on a day at at time.

[DizneyRox]

I think your math is suspect. The number of rooms at each resort is don't believe has much to do with trading in. If DVC members are staying there, and there may be no rooms to trade with RCI.

Imsure its not as simple as this, but if nobody trades out, nobody can trade in.

[Janmac]

Thanks for your thoughts.

We've noticed that 15 April starts lower price tiers for DDP, so we're hoping that might translate into more availability.

Also read somewhere - not sure where so how accurate was that info - that the villas RCI offers are not technically trades with other DVC owners. They're transferred to RCI when at some point Disney figures they're not going to rent them. Which would obviously mean that the full villa pool is not available, as only a small portion would be cash. We don't know how the contract between RCI and DVC works.

Jan

[Aurora]

They're transferred to RCI when at some point Disney figures they're not going to rent them.

Sort of. When a DVC member chooses to use his or her points to stay at a non-DVC resort, those points then move out of the DVC "pool" and become available for trade. So if you're looking to travel on a specific date, not only are you counting on rooms not being reserved by DVC members, you're also hoping there are points available for trade. The details are more complex, but that's the overall gist.

Again, I think you were probably pretty lucky with your first ressie.

[Janmac]

Thanks, Aurora, you're probably right. Got some Military Room Discount prices from Disney for Riverside which are close enought to what we can get from Shades of Green to be interesting. Probably going to book at RS this week. My sister is wait listed at RCI. Maybe we'll get lucky again, but if we don't, we'll still be at Disney. :D

Jan