WDW Weather Forecast - October 31-Nov 16, 2011

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss Sundays), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Monday pm, October 31, 2011
:mpumpkin:Happy Halloween!:ghost::pumpkin:

I love it when the weather does what it's supposed to. Everything has played out as forecast. The rain moved through this morning, but is now pushing out to sea and the rest of the day will be clear with a high of 72. For tomorrow, look for a high 76-78 with a low 52-54. Wednesday will be 78-80 with a low 57-59. Thursday and Friday the highs will run 80-82 with lows 61-63. I don't see signs of any significant rain all the way through Monday. There is a slight chance of some spotty showers on Friday and again on Monday, but nothing really organized. The high Saturday should be 77-79, then 82-84 for Sunday and Monday with lows around 60.

Long range...Nov 7-16 looks like more of the same. Highs will stay low to mid 80s as a high pressure builds over Florida and shunts all the fronts away from Florida. If that high breaks down, things will be different, but right now the pattern looks pretty solid. No real chance of rain beyond a possible pop up brief shower.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
No major delays today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics :fan:
While we are well past the climatological peak of the 2011 hurricane season, we are still technically IN that season! In early November, tropical cyclone formation is sporadic, but the few storms that have developed over the years seem to like the Caribbean’s warm water a little more than the more hostile environment near the Gulf or Western Atlantic. The main historic tracks of November storms usually steer storms away from the United States. For now, nothing is on the horizon and I definitely don't expect tropical formation this week.

Click here (http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/faq/hurricane-policy/) to see WDW's 2011 Hurricane Policy.

[peter's #1 fan]

we'll be arriving in Disney on Oct 5th -14th should we be worried about the rain that is showing up alot.

[Strmchsr]

we'll be arriving in Disney on Oct 5th -14th should we be worried about the rain that is showing up alot.

Not at all. I don't see significant rain any time soon. Any rain that does occur will be just pop up afternoon thunderstorms that last less than an hour. I think the majority of those will stay alon the coast, but one could drift inland. Still, nothing to worry about. If one does come over, just throw on a poncho, or find a place to rest for a few minutes and it'll be over soon.

[Jennifer_and_Chris]

No big heat wave the week of the 17th? :D

The last 2 years we have gone the same week and had freakishly hot days (mid 90's). So, is it safe to say low to mid 80's during our visit? I know it's voodoo land but, I'm trying to decide packing activities this weekend! :thumbsup:

Thanks for the daily updates.... I'm getting so excited.

[JenniferS.]

We are arriving on Oct. 27th til Nov. 4th. Hoping for low 80's and 60's at night. Not sure how to pack. I'll be checking back when you extend to that time frame!

[Strmchsr]

The last 2 years we have gone the same week and had freakishly hot days (mid 90's). So, is it safe to say low to mid 80's during our visit?

As you said, it's voodoo, but right now I don't see any big heat waves coming in October. I think you're safe to plan on 80s, though upper 80s aren't out of the question.


We are arriving on Oct. 27th til Nov. 4th. Hoping for low 80's and 60's at night. Not sure how to pack. I'll be checking back when you extend to that time frame!

The models go out 16 days, so that will give you an idea of when I'll get to your timeframe. 5 more days for you. :mickey:

[LittleRoosMommy]

We're leaving in the morning! My DH has been watching the local Orlando news and they are calling for up to 6-8 inches of rain this weekend!? I just want to be prepared.... Do you really think there could be that much rain this weekend?? I really hope not! I'm so done with rain!!! We have had a total of 5 days of sunshine since the beginning of Sept! I just really want to see the sun!!!

[Strmchsr]

April, I think that's possible in some areas, but not across the board. There will definitely be some periods of heavy rain with this system, especially tomorrow. I think on Sunday it'll be one batch that moves through. Keep in mind, though, with a tropical system 2" of rain can easily fall in an hour. Even 6-8" of rain doesn't mean an all day thing in the tropics. Most of your vacation, though, should be rain free. Just have to get through tomorrow and Sunday. I hope you have a good trip!

[LittleRoosMommy]

Thanks!! I've got the ponchos ready to go!! At least I will be in WDW and not sitting in MD in the rain!! Just hoping that it's all dried out by Mon for MNSSHP!! Thanks for the updates!

[Strmchsr]

Thanks!! I've got the ponchos ready to go!! At least I will be in WDW and not sitting in MD in the rain!! Just hoping that it's all dried out by Mon for MNSSHP!! Thanks for the updates!
I think you should definitely be fine by Monday night's party. And keep in mind what I mentioned in the forecast - there are a couple of models that limit the rain completely to tomorrow. I think it'll be both days, but at least there's a chance.

[buddie]

Forecasts are useless here in central Florida.
Don't plan anything based on them.
At some point it will rain. It will be sunny. It will be warm.

[Disney Hungarian]

Forecasts are useless here in central Florida.
Don't plan anything based on them.
At some point it will rain. It will be sunny. It will be warm.
I disagree.
Chris does a great service to INTERCOT by offering his forecasts. I owe him for last December. I followed his forecast and knew in advance that I would experience rather unseasonably cold weather last year. One of those days the high was only 36 and the wind-chill was below freezing the whole day. Had it not been for Chris, I would not have taken hats, gloves, scarves and ear-muffs. Thank you again, Chris!:thumbsup:

[Jared]

Chris, please tell that tropical system for Oct. 22 and 23 to cool it. That's when I arrive!

[Strmchsr]

Chris, please tell that tropical system for Oct. 22 and 23 to cool it. That's when I arrive!

I'll be sure to send the Boss a memo about that. :mickey:

[Jared]

I'll be sure to send the Boss a memo about that. :mickey:
Yes, please. I see nothing but sunshine in the Orlando forecast -- until I arrive.

[Jared]

Seems like you're doing a pretty good job at keeping the tropical storm at bay so far, Chris. Doesn't look like it'll be too big of a threat!

[Strmchsr]

Seems like you're doing a pretty good job at keeping the tropical storm at bay so far, Chris. Doesn't look like it'll be too big of a threat!

Thanks! I wish I could claim credit. :D Seriously, though, even though the majority of the models are getting the Caribbean all stirred up in a few days, most models are also showing a pretty decent trough developing over the East Coast for the latter half of October which should keep those systems pushed to the south. Nothing is certain, but right now it looks like the greater threat would be to South Florida rather than the Orlando area.

[Dsnygirl]

Chris, it looks like things are trending towards cooler temps the end of the month... is that what you're expecting to follow through? We're there the 27-31, and although 70's is great, we're hoping for a small bit of swimming weather! :blush:

[Strmchsr]

Blythe, I think it's about a 50-50 chance of the weather actually ending up cooler. Certainly cooler weather is coming at the end of October. It all depends on how far south the trough comes and that's impossible to say right now.

[Kisobel]

i know i will enjoy being there no matter what the weather. but i really dont want highs in the 60's. crosssing my fingers and toes and wishing real hard.

kate

[Jared]

i know i will enjoy being there no matter what the weather. but i really dont want highs in the 60's. crosssing my fingers and toes and wishing real hard.

kate
Come on, it's got to be snowing by now in good old Central New York!

[mdricks]

Im liking mid-80s for the weekend of the 21-22. Keep that up!!!

Food and wine here i come!:marg::marg:

[Jennifer_and_Chris]

Please, please, please keep the rain AWAY from WDW Wednesday... well, wednesday evening. That's my b-day Wishes night!

[disneymomma2010]

:( We are going to the world the 22nd-27th. I really hope it doesn't rain much because we are bringing family with us who have only been there once and it was during a down pour! Im hoping they will have a better experience this time. What's worse is we have reservations to stay at the beach the 27th-30th which would not be good for temps in the 60s-40s!:snowball:
Im really hoping the models will show it warming up and drying up by the time we get there!:vacation:

[Jared]

:( We are going to the world the 22nd-27th. I really hope it doesn't rain much because we are bringing family with us who have only been there once and it was during a down pour! Im hoping they will have a better experience this time. What's worse is we have reservations to stay at the beach the 27th-30th which would not be good for temps in the 60s-40s!:snowball:
Im really hoping the models will show it warming up and drying up by the time we get there!:vacation:
We'll be there at the same time! Cross your fingers for dry weather!

[Kisobel]

Come on, it's got to be snowing by now in good old Central New York!

hey now we don't use that four letter word. we havent had any frozen rain yet.

kate

[GBBT]

Chris...I need your thoughts about the weather December 26th to New Years.Do you think it will be as cold as last year?Thanks.

[Jared]

hey now we don't use that four letter word. we havent had any frozen rain yet.

kate
After spending four years in Syracuse as a student, I know that rule very well. That's why I said "snowing." It's seven letters. ;)

[Strmchsr]

Chris...I need your thoughts about the weather December 26th to New Years.Do you think it will be as cold as last year?Thanks.

Well, that's beyond voodooland. No way to say. However, with the current overall setup the temps have a 50-50 chance of being above or below normal. How's that for helpful? But, that's where it stands right now. It's a coin flip as to what the temps will do this winter.

[JenniferS.]

We are arriving on the 27th. Do you think it will rain all day or just scattered? I'm happy it's going to be on the cooler side. We are used to going in the beginning of Sept and sweating to death. It's going to feel so weird being there without that hot, humid weather. I'm glad though!:thumbsup:

[LittleRoosMommy]

Just wanted to let you know that you were right on with your forecast for Columbus Day weekend! We arrived on Sat, 10/8, to crazy amts of rain!! It rained through mid-day on Sunday.... and then a little overnight Sunday night. The rest of the week was beautiful!!!!

Orlando actually set records for the amount of rain that weekend! At least it dried out for the rest of the trip!

Thanks for the heads up!!

[Dsnygirl]

Chris... the temps are trending JUST the way I want them to... while I know I don't have you personally to thank for it, since you are the bearer of the glad tidings -- thanks!! :thumbsup: :D :thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

We are arriving on the 27th. Do you think it will rain all day or just scattered?

Right now it looks like mostly scattered. No big rain event, but that's also voodoo at the moment.


Just wanted to let you know that you were right on with your forecast for Columbus Day weekend! ...Thanks for the heads up!!

I hate that you had to deal with the rain, but glad you had advanced notice. That's why I do this. At least you had beautiful weather for the rest of the trip! :mickey:


while I know I don't have you personally to thank for it, since you are the bearer of the glad tidings -- thanks!! :thumbsup: :D :thumbsup:

lol, just don't send the blame my way when it doesn't go right. :D

[Mitzie]

Weather question: I have a friend who her son just arrived at Disney World last night with his wife and 2 and 3 year old. They are staying at CRB...with the threat of severe weather forecasted, how does Disney handle things like tornadoes and such? Also for anyone who has stayed at CRB during inclement weather..do they do activities for the kids in the main bldg?

[Strmchsr]

Weather question: I have a friend who her son just arrived at Disney World last night with his wife and 2 and 3 year old. They are staying at CRB...with the threat of severe weather forecasted, how does Disney handle things like tornadoes and such? Also for anyone who has stayed at CRB during inclement weather..do they do activities for the kids in the main bldg?

If there is a tornado threat, Disney brings all guests into various shelters in the parks. At the resorts you can go to the main building if you're not on a first floor. They don't generally do activities for kids unless it's going to be a prolonged event like a hurricane or tropical storm. This event will last tonight through tomorrow morning but it won't be too bad. Just heavy rain and the occasional strong storm.

[Mitzie]

I am glad this isn't looking too bad..she was worried about them all. I will pass along your reply. Now if you can send along some good vibes for next week the 27-31..DH and I are headed down for a parent only trip for our Anniv.:)

[Dsnygirl]

I am glad this isn't looking too bad..she was worried about them all. I will pass along your reply. Now if you can send along some good vibes for next week the 27-31..DH and I are headed down for a parent only trip for our Anniv.:)

Ditto... the exact same dates. Happy Anniversary!! :cloud9: Keeping our fingers crossed that the weather forecast stays nice for us both!! :D

[Mitzie]

Ditto... the exact same dates. Happy Anniversary!! Keeping our fingers crossed that the weather forecast stays nice for us both!!
Too funny I just noticed your signature... AKL for us as well!! Can't wait!

[Dsnygirl]

Chris... now that the showers have moved from the 27th to the 28th ( :( ), any indication on how big this rainy period might be? Hoping it's not looking like a "washout" day as the front moves in, as it's our first day... :fingers:

[Strmchsr]

Chris... now that the showers have moved from the 27th to the 28th ( :( ), any indication on how big this rainy period might be? Hoping it's not looking like a "washout" day as the front moves in, as it's our first day... :fingers:

Blythe, timing is still completely uncertain on this, but right now it looks like rain would arrive in the afternoon of the 28th and be gone before park opening the next morning. It does not look like a washout sort of event but maybe 3-4 hours of rain total. I should be able to tighten that forecast up a bit over the next couple of days.

[Dsnygirl]

Blythe, timing is still completely uncertain on this, but right now it looks like rain would arrive in the afternoon of the 28th and be gone before park opening the next morning. It does not look like a washout sort of event but maybe 3-4 hours of rain total. I should be able to tighten that forecast up a bit over the next couple of days.


Thanks Chris.... keeping my :fingers: and holding out for a good "tightening job"!! :D

[Crow]

thanks
arriving Monday 24th so been watching your forecasts

[Mitzie]

Blyth, since that is the first day of both our trips maby we can both keep our fingers crossed for that rain Chris forecast for the 28th
to stay away or comes in during the night.

[tinksmom02]

Yay! Our arrival day is in Chris' weather report! That means we're getting close!!! :mickey: Will be watching daily to see what kind of weather November brings.

[Dyanna]

Ive been also checking the usual weather sites & they show Nov 1st to be approx 60% rain. How true could this be as this is the day were attending MNSSHP. Will be in town from Oct 29th to Nov 3rd.

[Strmchsr]

Ive been also checking the usual weather sites & they show Nov 1st to be approx 60% rain. How true could this be as this is the day were attending MNSSHP. Will be in town from Oct 29th to Nov 3rd.

I think rain for WDW is fairly unlikely right now. Nov 1 is the boarder of voodooland, so things could change, but right now I don't see any reason to expect rain. There is a weak disturbance that should bring rain to south Florida early next week, but I think it all stays south of Orlando. The problem with the "usual" sites is that they are completely computer generated and rely only on one model. No human interaction. So, if that one model happens to show rain potential that's what you see. There are a couple of models that bring the rain farther north, but I think that looks fairly unlikely right now. Feel free to ask again in a couple of days when the forecast becomes more firm as we get closer.

[GusNJacque]

Going to MNSSHP on Friday. How do you think the rain chances look? The only other time I have been I didn't get to see the headless horseman because of rain. Fingers crossed.

[Strmchsr]

Going to MNSSHP on Friday. How do you think the rain chances look? The only other time I have been I didn't get to see the headless horseman because of rain. Fingers crossed.

Right now I think there's a pretty decent chance of rain at some point on Friday afternoon and evening as the front moves through. I don't think it will rain the whole time, so hopefully it won't interfere with the parade or HalloWishes.

[Mitzie]

Rina!!! Oh this can't be good...we were heading to AK park that day...Keep us posted!

[Strmchsr]

Rina!!! Oh this can't be good...we were heading to AK park that day...Keep us posted!

I'll give a full update around noon CDT when the afternoon model runs are in, but the morning models are continuing to confirm what I thought yesterday, which is that the storm will be more of a threat to south Florida, the Keys, and Cuba with minimal impact on Orlando. Hopefully that trend will continue.

[GusNJacque]

Thanks Chris. I hope it holds.

Mitzie--it always rains on my AKP day!

[Mitzie]

Thanks Chris. I hope it holds.

Mitzie--it always rains on my AKP day!

I am sorry your AKP day always rains. In the past our AKP days have been beautiful.

Chris...as an Indiana girl this hurrican thing is a little nerve racking. We once had to evacute Daytona Beach due to Hurricane Bertha..was hoping that was my last run in with such storms. Praying that this storm stays far way from Disney World. :scared:

[Strmchsr]

Chris...as an Indiana girl this hurrican thing is a little nerve racking. We once had to evacute Daytona Beach due to Hurricane Bertha..was hoping that was my last run in with such storms. Praying that this storm stays far way from Disney World. :scared:

I just updated with the results of the afternoon models and I remain convinced the storm will stay south of Orlando with no worries for you.

[Mitzie]

Thanks Chris! Will check back in tomorrow for your latest word.

[GusNJacque]

Me too!!

[Dsnygirl]

Ditto!! :)

[VWL Mom]

Thanks Chris, after just having spent 3 days without power/heat I am soooo looking forward to some nice warm weather on Sunday :mickey: