Strmchsr
07-01-2011, 02:25 PM
Since the forecast rarely changes July-August, I'm only going to update this post on the weekdays until September unless there is something tropical brewing or a reason to update. I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:
Weather at WDW - Updated Sunday pm, July 31, 2011
Take this forecast beyond Wednesday with a grain of salt because it'll all depend on what Emily does. For today, after a high of 95 the sea breeze thunderstorms are beginning to knock things back down. Some of those could be pretty strong today. For tomorrow and Tuesday, highs will run 92-94 with a good chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Wednesday will be 94-96 with the sea breeze storms a little more isolated. Thursday and Friday should be 93-95 with pop up thunderstorms. Saturday and Sunday are really going to depend on Emily. Some of the models this afternoon don't bring Emily into Florida, but close enough to the coast to cause some heavy rain. For now, I'm going to go with a high 91-93 with scattered thunderstorms, but that definitely may have to be adjusted. Lows all week will run 76-78.
Long range...August 8-16 looks like normal summer weather. Highs in the low 90s, lows in the mid 70s, and scattered sea breeze thunderstorms each afternoon. Some models are hinting the Bermuda High could really exert itself mid-month which would mean hotter and drier weather, but we'll have to see how the models go over the next few days. Let's just get past Emily right now.
Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
At 5:00 pm CDT, pop up thunderstorms are causing delays in ATL, Orlando, Las Vegas, and NYC. For tomorrow, look for delays from Philadelphia to NYC to Boston and most of New England. Also over MN, WI, ND, and SD.
Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!
Tropics :fan:
Hurricane Hunter crews were deployed to St. Croix in the Virgin Islands yesterday in anticipation of several missions into what promises to be Hurricane Emily. The incipient disturbance is a low pressure system that is about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Showers associated with the system have really become more concentrated and a tropical depression will likely form this afternoon. Tomorrow at the latest. Waters are warm, wind shear is light, and the system Is free of any Saharan Air Layer dry air, so it should intensify steadily, becoming a Tropical Storm (acquiring the name Emily) and a hurricane pretty quickly over the northeastern Caribbean. The GFS had been predicting a path over Puerto Rico and then a north northwestward course to the east of the Bahamas. Much more worrisome would be a more northwesterly course over the Bahamas that could mean a significant threat to Florida or the Carolinas later this week or next weekend. The morning run of the GFS introduced that idea officially, indicating that Emily will miss the first East Coast trough and then move slowly northwest. It still does not predict a U.S. landfall, letting Emily get picked up by a second East Coast trough that should start forming late next weekend. It will be interesting. So, what I'm basically saying is that all models still seem to indicate Emily will not be a direct hit for WDW and will go out to sea. However, it could definitely get close enough to Florida late this week to bring some serious rain and thunderstorms. Until we see how this trough develops, and how Emily interacts with it, we won't know for sure what to expect.
Click here (http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/faq/hurricane-policy/) to see WDW's 2011 Hurricane Policy.
Weather at WDW - Updated Sunday pm, July 31, 2011
Take this forecast beyond Wednesday with a grain of salt because it'll all depend on what Emily does. For today, after a high of 95 the sea breeze thunderstorms are beginning to knock things back down. Some of those could be pretty strong today. For tomorrow and Tuesday, highs will run 92-94 with a good chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Wednesday will be 94-96 with the sea breeze storms a little more isolated. Thursday and Friday should be 93-95 with pop up thunderstorms. Saturday and Sunday are really going to depend on Emily. Some of the models this afternoon don't bring Emily into Florida, but close enough to the coast to cause some heavy rain. For now, I'm going to go with a high 91-93 with scattered thunderstorms, but that definitely may have to be adjusted. Lows all week will run 76-78.
Long range...August 8-16 looks like normal summer weather. Highs in the low 90s, lows in the mid 70s, and scattered sea breeze thunderstorms each afternoon. Some models are hinting the Bermuda High could really exert itself mid-month which would mean hotter and drier weather, but we'll have to see how the models go over the next few days. Let's just get past Emily right now.
Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
At 5:00 pm CDT, pop up thunderstorms are causing delays in ATL, Orlando, Las Vegas, and NYC. For tomorrow, look for delays from Philadelphia to NYC to Boston and most of New England. Also over MN, WI, ND, and SD.
Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!
Tropics :fan:
Hurricane Hunter crews were deployed to St. Croix in the Virgin Islands yesterday in anticipation of several missions into what promises to be Hurricane Emily. The incipient disturbance is a low pressure system that is about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Showers associated with the system have really become more concentrated and a tropical depression will likely form this afternoon. Tomorrow at the latest. Waters are warm, wind shear is light, and the system Is free of any Saharan Air Layer dry air, so it should intensify steadily, becoming a Tropical Storm (acquiring the name Emily) and a hurricane pretty quickly over the northeastern Caribbean. The GFS had been predicting a path over Puerto Rico and then a north northwestward course to the east of the Bahamas. Much more worrisome would be a more northwesterly course over the Bahamas that could mean a significant threat to Florida or the Carolinas later this week or next weekend. The morning run of the GFS introduced that idea officially, indicating that Emily will miss the first East Coast trough and then move slowly northwest. It still does not predict a U.S. landfall, letting Emily get picked up by a second East Coast trough that should start forming late next weekend. It will be interesting. So, what I'm basically saying is that all models still seem to indicate Emily will not be a direct hit for WDW and will go out to sea. However, it could definitely get close enough to Florida late this week to bring some serious rain and thunderstorms. Until we see how this trough develops, and how Emily interacts with it, we won't know for sure what to expect.
Click here (http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/faq/hurricane-policy/) to see WDW's 2011 Hurricane Policy.