WDW Weather Forecast January 31-Feb 16, 2011

[Strmchsr]

Each day in January, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Monday pm, January 31, 2011
I'm at WDW until Friday!:mickey: I plan on getting Internet most days as I have to stay connected so I will probably update the forecast most days. In case I miss a day, however, click here (http://www.wftv.com/weather/index.html) for the local WFTV forecast and that will keep you in the know.

Sorry about the break in forecasts. Been in the parks myself and just now had time to get internet to update you all. Today is another perfect day with a high of 74. Tomorrow and Wednesday will remain sunny. 77-79 tomorrow and 78-80 for Wednesday. Lows will be 55-57. Thursday should be around 70 for a high with the possibility of show light showers. Doesn't look like a major rain event, but hit and miss light showers are possible. It looks like on Friday the high will hold the front to the north and it should be a beautiful with a high around 75. Saturday the front will finally move through. Once again it doesn't look like a major rain event, but expect scattered showers with a high around 66-68. Sunday should be 74-76 and Monday 75-77 with lows 53-55 both days.

Long range...Feb 8 should be clear with a high in the mid to upper 70s. Feb 9, however, is stormy as the high pressure finally breaks down. Now, the pattern in the long range has been for this high to break down, but it's being pretty stubborn so I'm not 100% sure this will be the case. We'll have to keep an eye on this. I feel very confident that wintry conditions will continue for most of the eastern USA through mid-February, but it doesn't seem most of the cold air, at least the worst of it, will make it to Orlando. So, Feb 10 will be upper 60s with mid 40s for a low. Feb 11 will warm to the low to mid 70s. Feb 12-13 should be in the mid 70s, the Feb 14-15 warm to the mid to upper 70s with lows in the mid 50s. Feb 16 the next storm system moves through.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
There's a hum dinger of a storm building up today. There might not be a better word for the developing blizzard in the middle of the country from Oklahoma, to Missouri, Illinois and so on. From Tulsa to St. Louis, as much as 8 to 12 inches of snow are likely on Tuesday; in parts of Illinois and Indiana (including Chicago and South Bend), as much as 20 to 24 inches of snow are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday morning! At 2:00 pm CST, only Minneapolis is reporting delays (according to the FAA), but I'm sure that will change this evening and tomorrow. For tomorrow, lots of delays over MN, WI, IL, IA, MO, AR, TN, KY, IN, OH, MI, and possibly NY, PA, NJ, MD and DC.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[Red Randal]

Right now your forecast for Jan 12-15 is more comforting than AccuWeather's, so here's to hoping you've got it right! Thanks!!

[Strmchsr]

Right now your forecast for Jan 12-15 is more comforting than AccuWeather's, so here's to hoping you've got it right! Thanks!!

Well, I don't put too much faith in either forecast beyond 7 days, but Accuweather, like all "fill-in-your-zip code" sites uses 1 model to just plug numbers in. No human interaction, which makes for a less accurate forecast. So, I hope I'm right, too. :D

[Dsnygirl]

Well Chris, I'm crossing my fingers that the cold front, if it hits, is indeed around the 19th... my friends and I hit the World on the 27th, and while I have no hopes for it to be warmer than it was last time (low 70's), I'm sure hoping it won't be winter coat and gloves weather!! :fingers:

Thanks for all the work and all the updates!! :thumbsup:

[kakn7294]

I hope your long-range prediction of a front moving potentially bringing in bitter cold temps on Jan 19 and beyond is wrong! That's the day we arrive!

[Dakota Rose]

I hope your long-range prediction of a front moving potentially bringing in bitter cold temps on Jan 19 and beyond is wrong! That's the day we arrive!

Hear, hear! We arrive on the 21st. Just one more week of 70s, that's all I ask! (Honestly, I'll take the 60s too)

[BiloxiMom]

We will be there on the 23rd. PLEASE! No cold, freezing temps! And no rain!!

[Strmchsr]

I feel your pain. We arrive on Jan 28 and went through the cold last year (32 and snowing at noon when we arrived). But, we had a great time anyway, so don't worry too much about the cold. Besides, too early to say for sure right now. As I mentioned, sometimes these cold snaps stay just north of Florida. The pattern is there, and the models tonight are actually showing the cold air arriving at the end of next week, but that's still voodoo.

[Dsnygirl]

Just wanted to check in and see if everything was okay... it's not like Chris to be gone for this long. :( If you're checking in -- I hope everything is good & you're just busy getting ready for your trip!

[faline]

Just wanted to check in and see if everything was okay... it's not like Chris to be gone for this long. :( If you're checking in -- I hope everything is good & you're just busy getting ready for your trip!

Chris will be back soon!

[Suz36]

Yay, you're back! I hope it was a good trip. You're just in time to start forecasting for our trip - I appreciate it!:thumbsup:

[Dsnygirl]

Welcome back, Chris - what a great trip to have been on! Thanks for the update -- good to have you back!

[Strmchsr]

Thanks! Now that I'm back from Colombia I'm looking forward to my Disney trip in a couple of weeks!

[BiloxiMom]

Welcome home, Chris!

I am praying that you are right. We check in on the 21st and out the 29th. Another site lists rain everyday from the 23rd to the 29th. Yuck! Thanks for updating each day for us!

[cuteduck223]

im headed to wdw about when you are..yesterdays forcast seems almost the opposite with cooler weather (60's) end of january then rain on the 1st and mid 70's the rest of the week. As we get closer i look forward to seeing what it's like...i've already started packing!

[Strmchsr]

im headed to wdw about when you are..yesterdays forcast seems almost the opposite with cooler weather (60's) end of january then rain on the 1st and mid 70's the rest of the week. As we get closer i look forward to seeing what it's like...i've already started packing!

With the models having such a hard time resolving the upper air pattern, I think we'll probably see some more flip-flopping before it's done. It'll probably be Sunday or Monday before we begin to get a good handle on how the rest of the month will play out.

[JabberJaws]

We are down starting Feb. 3 so holding out for the upper 60's rather than those lower 60's. Still 2 weeks out though and weather is anything but easy to predict this far out. We will see!

Oh and latest accuweather 15-day forecast is saying 77 on Feb. 2 and 0% chance of rain. Here's hoping that holds out!

[cuteduck223]

Thanks so much! It'll be an adventure thats for sure!

[Strmchsr]

Oh and latest accuweather 15-day forecast is saying 77 on Feb. 2 and 0% chance of rain. Here's hoping that holds out!

Unfortunately, accuweather (like all the fill in your zip code sites) is extremely inaccurate since there is no human interaction and it only uses 1 model to fill in the data.

[JabberJaws]

Unfortunately, accuweather (like all the fill in your zip code sites) is extremely inaccurate since there is no human interaction and it only uses 1 model to fill in the data.

Yeah as I've come to learn over the years lol. But 2 weeks out most any weather models are inaccurate. Eh even 3 days out most weather forecasts are inaccurate haha. Still, I am going to stick w/ thinking that the 77 and sunny forecast is going to hold out thank you very much :D

[cuteduck223]

ahh!! you predicted colder and colder!! Voodoo be gone! :) thanks for the update. im gonna go dig out some sweaters.

[peemagg]

Hey Stormchaser,

I'm not liking this cold forecasts. Can you warm them up a little please.

[Strmchsr]

I'm not liking this cold forecasts. Can you warm them up a little please.

Sorry, I'm only in public relations, not management. But should management decide to make changes, I'll be sure to let you know.

[JabberJaws]

Accuweather says high of 74 on Feb. 4, you say highs in the upper 50's. I, for one, am pulling for Accuweather! :thumbsup:

Hopefully the voodoo will clear up soon and we will get a clearer (and hopefully warmer) picture of the first weekend in February. I've had enough winter, I want some 70's!!

[Strmchsr]

Accuweather says high of 74 on Feb. 4, you say highs in the upper 50's. I, for one, am pulling for Accuweather! :thumbsup:

Yep. And today it says 66 with rain. Like I mentioned before, I don't trust accuweather (or weather.com for that matter) at all. With no human interaction you just can't trust it because every model has its strengths and weaknesses that have to be interpreted and those sites just fill in the numbers using only 1 model. If you want to look at forecasts other than mine, you would do much better looking at the National Weather Service out of Melbourne, FL or one of the local TV stations. I would prefer accuweather's version, too. And, to give you some hope, some of the models are trending warmer for the end of next week this morning. We'll see if the afternoon models continue that trend! I hope so.

I agree on voodooland. I wish it would settle down, too. Unfortunately this time of year the long range tends to be notoriously difficult and variable. It makes up for the fact that from June through August I can go ahead and say "Highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s, 30% chance of an afternoon thunderstorm" and be right 99% of the time. :D

[JabberJaws]

Chris,

Yeah I agree 100% on those websites (weather.com, intellicast, accuweather) they are always different from one another and always all over the place! I tend to trust local forecasts much more as those guys are focusing completely on one area and have spent more time analyzing those models.

Feb. 4 is the real start of our trip so I am ALL about some clearing out and a high around 70. It can rain all it wants on Feb. 3 as we are just traveling down that day.

Also, rain on Saturday works better for us than rain on Sunday, as we are doing Epcot and DHS on Saturday, MK on Sunday (easier to manage rain at Epcot).

Naturally you can tell that I only care about the weather relating to how it impacts our trip so I apologize for my selfishness hehe.:D

[Strmchsr]

Naturally you can tell that I only care about the weather relating to how it impacts our trip so I apologize for my selfishness hehe.:D

I call those SPFs (selfish personal forecast), and I can certainly understand! Since we're leaving this Friday for DW's 40th birthday celebration and I'm teaching at the Disney Institute next week, I'm hoping for good weather, too. We all want our vacation weather to be perfect. :mickey:

[cuteduck223]

no rain on the 3rd! If we're gonna get selfish :) my hubby is doing africa trek that day!

[Strmchsr]

no rain on the 3rd! If we're gonna get selfish :) my hubby is doing africa trek that day!

I hope he enjoys it! We had a reservation to do the africa trek that day, too, but my DS10 injured his knee and can't do that rough walking right now, so we had to cancel.

[cuteduck223]

I hope he enjoys it! We had a reservation to do the africa trek that day, too, but my DS10 injured his knee and can't do that rough walking right now, so we had to cancel.

We have a friend who is one of the guides. It's been exciting to hear about, and i've heard it's not that rough but the word harness scares me to death, so im not going. Sorry to hear about the knee injury..is it serious?

[Strmchsr]

Sorry to hear about the knee injury..is it serious?

Not too bad. He'll heal in time, but we are going to have to rent a scooter for him for our trip as he wouldn't be able to walk that much. Should make for a different experience.

[Tinkerfreak]

Thats too bad that your son is hurt. I hope you still have a great trip. My family will be there tomorrow through Monday. I am loving your updated forcast. Considering in was -25 here a couple of days ago 60 degrees sounds down right balmy. Anytime we can be outdoors without being completely bundled up in our L.L.Bean winter gear is great! :thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

Thats too bad that your son is hurt. I hope you still have a great trip. My family will be there tomorrow through Monday.

We're arriving Friday! :mickey: I hope you enjoy your trip and the weather.

[JabberJaws]

Considering they are calling for a high of 52 and a low of 29 on Feb. 3 here (Charleston, SC), I will take low to mid 60s any day of the week.

How's rain forecast looking for Feb. 4 right now? The Feb. 3 rain expecting to clear out? The ever-nebulous online 10-day forecasts are all over the place (weather.com w/ no rain on Feb. 4, accuweather w/ nearly 1/4 inch on Feb. 4).

[Strmchsr]

How's rain forecast looking for Feb. 4 right now? The Feb. 3 rain expecting to clear out? The ever-nebulous online 10-day forecasts are all over the place (weather.com w/ no rain on Feb. 4, accuweather w/ nearly 1/4 inch on Feb. 4).

Yeah, the models are still all over the place. Looking at this morning's version, it looks like the Gulf low still forms, but slows down, which would mean Feb 3 stays dry with rain arriving the afternoon of Feb 4. We'll see if the 12z runs continue that slower trend. I should have the new forecast up around 11 am CST.

[cuteduck223]

Yeah, the models are still all over the place. Looking at this morning's version, it looks like the Gulf low still forms, but slows down, which would mean Feb 3 stays dry with rain arriving the afternoon of Feb 4. .

Hooray for Voodoo! Keep that rain off of the 3rd! The 4th is a way better day for rain. and only the 4th of course. :) Thanks for always updating us. Its pretty much the highlight of my day!
:party2:

[JabberJaws]

Hooray for Voodoo! Keep that rain off of the 3rd! The 4th is a way better day for rain. and only the 4th of course. :) Thanks for always updating us. Its pretty much the highlight of my day!
:party2:

Nope, no rain on the 4th, that is our Island of Adventure/Harry Potter day! :D

Though....rain might keep some of the people away...so maybe some rain (as long as no crazy t-storms or driving rain) wouldn't be bad. If it makes lines at HPATFJ shorter and isn't too cold or hard then I am ok with it I think!

Plus afternoon rain would be OK as long as it was later in the afternoon. We are leaving IOA at around 6-7ish anyways. Plus I'd rather it be dry (and warmer) for our WDW days.

What kinda rain are we potentially talking about Chris? Heavy, driving rain. More light, tolerable rain? T-storms?

[Strmchsr]

What kinda rain are we potentially talking about Chris? Heavy, driving rain. More light, tolerable rain? T-storms?

I see I have competing SPFs here. ;)

The 06z models showed the high pressure holding on enough to keep the heaviest rain and thunderstorms north of Orlando. At least until the evening. So, you would just see off and on light rain during the day. Again, we'll see what the 12z models say in about an hour.

[JabberJaws]

Actually let me say I hope the weather is fantastic the entire time and works out for everyone! :angel:

That being said, if I had to pick one day of the two to be nice weather, I'd say Feb. 4 ;).

Thanks for the updates Chris. I will keep an eye out for your latest forecast. I know still a long way out so things will likely change a lot between now and then.

[Dsnygirl]

Chris, it looks like you updated for today, but the forecast is still what you wrote for yesterday -- did the update not go through properly?? (yes, I'm watching with baited breath, as I fly out bright and early tomorrow morning and am not only hoping for the warmer weather you're forecasting for S/S/M, but also for my flying forecast to get nicer... ;))

[Strmchsr]

Chris, it looks like you updated for today, but the forecast is still what you wrote for yesterday -- did the update not go through properly?? (yes, I'm watching with baited breath, as I fly out bright and early tomorrow morning and am not only hoping for the warmer weather you're forecasting for S/S/M, but also for my flying forecast to get nicer... ;))

Blythe, the update didn't work for some reason, but I just re-posted. It's correct now with today's update. Hope you have a great trip! I'm excited about mine, too. As for tomorrow morning, you'll see snow this afternoon and evening so there might be some issues in the morning, but it looks like the snow should end fairly early which gives hope for improving conditions.

[Dsnygirl]

Blythe, the update didn't work for some reason, but I just re-posted. It's correct now with today's update. Hope you have a great trip! I'm excited about mine, too. As for tomorrow morning, you'll see snow this afternoon and evening so there might be some issues in the morning, but it looks like the snow should end fairly early which gives hope for improving conditions.

:thanks: :thumbsup: You guys have a GREAT trip, too!!

[JabberJaws]

Liking the new update. Working out well for our schedule :D. Feb. 5 would be the perfect day for rain (if it is going to happen) for us since that is our Epcot day, and my experience is Epcot is the best park for rain avoidance (except for Test Track).

That being said, I hope for perfect weather for everyone on every day! :D

[JabberJaws]

As things come out of voodooland things are looking more and more promising. Thanks for the constant updates! They really help meteorchondriacs like myself keep up with things from a knowledgeable source. Hope you are enjoying your trip!

[JabberJaws]

Thanks for taking time during your vacation to update! Weather is looking great. Hope you guys are having a blast!!

How are the crowds?

[Strmchsr]

How are the crowds?

Packed Friday through yesterday, but that seemed to be mostly the Brazillian groups. I heard their school starts back this week and most are headed out today and I've heard that crowds are some better today. Hopefully that will continue the rest of the week. I just did a trip report and put more details there. Hope your trip is wonderful too! I'll update again soon. Wednesday at the latest, but hopefully tomorrow too.