WDW Weather Forecast - November 30-Dec 16, 2010

[Strmchsr]

Each day in November, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Tuesday pm, Nov 30, 2010
Enjoy this last sunny and warm day because things are about to change. Today will hit 83, but rain will begin to move in late tonight and last through tomorrow. Tomorrow's high will be 65-67 with off and on rain. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong, but I think the heaviest rain will occur before the parks open. Rain will taper off in the early afternoon and clear up by evening. Thursday and Friday will be cooler with highs 64-66 and lows 40-42. Saturday through Monday will be 70-72 for highs with lows around 50. The next rain chance arrives late Monday into Tuesday morning. Today it doesn't look like a significant rain, though. The system will run out of steam as it moves into Orlando, so there could be some light showers, but nothing major. Tuesday's high will drop back to around 65 with the frontal passage.

Long range...Dec 8 will dawn cooler with a high around 60 and a low in the upper 30s. Dec 9-10 will be mid 60s, then low to mid 70s for Dec 11. Dec 12 the next front moves through bringing rain and dropping the high back to the mid 60s. Dec 13-15 will be in the mid to upper 60s with dry skies and lows in the mid 40s. A powerful storm arrives on Dec 16 bringing rain and thunderstorms and dropping the high down to in upper 50s.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
At 2:15 pm CST, the NYC airports and Atlanta are reporting delays. For tomorrow, the delay threat will be over PA, NY, NJ, RI, CT, and MA.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[WDWFanatic]

Thanks Chris! You're reports are always so helpful.

[lynnek]

O.K. it's just cool when I see the dates of our vacation in your forecast--I know the tail end of it is guessing, but guessing 80 is fabulous to see from up here in the Norh!!

[dlpmikki]

We just got back to our room when the rain decided it wanted to do more than sprinkle yesterday - it poured! It was so hard (and the ground so dry) that we would have had to walk through several inches of water to get out it was flooding so much. We went to Epcot a few hours later when it had stopped but it decided to come again for a couple of hours, thought I was back in England with such persistant rain. hope that means the front moved through a bit quicker than expected.

[Strmchsr]

Mikki,

Unfortunately, no, the front hasn't made it yet. It just so happened that one of those very isolated storms decided to park right over WDW. The chance of that happening was only about 10%. At least you felt right at home! :D There will continue to be scattered showers today and tomorrow until the front comes through, but you shouldn't see anything like yesterday unless you're unlucky enough to have one park right over you again.

[ginger19]

I am so happy to see my dates in your voodoo forecast :mickey:

Now if you could just make sure there is no rain from the 19th-25th I'll be even happier :thumbsup:

Thanks for helping me plan!!!

[Strmchsr]

Now if you could just make sure there is no rain from the 19th-25th I'll be even happier

I'll be sure to let the Boss know of your request. :mickey:

[ginger19]

I'll be sure to let the Boss know of your request. :mickey:

Much appreciated :thumbsup:

[Harriet]

I appricate your update tell the boss upstairs if you can I would like no rain from the 11th-19th.
I know I am wishing for Pixie Dust .Hoping things stay peaseful.

[andypooh]

will be in WDW in less than 48 hours. Going to head right to the park saturday after we stop at BLT to drop off our stuff. After we spend the rest of the afternoon in the park we will get DS2 and DS4 ready for bed. Grandma and grandpa will stay with the boys while we head back to MK for the night and some of the evening EMH.

My question is how cold can I expect it to be from say 8pm-1am (if we can make it that long)? Thanks.


:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

My question is how cold can I expect it to be from say 8pm-1am (if we can make it that long)? Thanks.:mickey:

Saturday night I would say expect mid to upper 50s by 8 pm dropping to 48-50 by 1 am. Looks like the winds will calm down by Saturday evening so wind chill shouldn't be too much of a factor. However, being near any water will make things feel a little cooler. Have a wonderful trip!

[andypooh]

thanks

maybe the cool weather will keep the crowds down a little bit for EMH

no splash mountain i guess till later in the week

[tundramom]

Just returned form an awesome trip and had to give a big :thanks: to Strmchaser. His predictions even 14 days out were so much more accurate than weather.com. My DH kept pooh poohing me when I told him it was going to be cold our first weekend, but he finally caved to my :nudge: nagging and took a coat and jeans. The very first night (Nov 4th) we were at AK EMH and about 7PM he looked at me and said "I want to thank you for making me bring my coat" :music: to my:dumbo:

[Strmchsr]

You're welcome! :mickey: I'm so glad the info was correct and you were well prepared. I hope you had a great trip.

[ginger19]

Thank you :) You are always so accurate and I now know that I can put the ponchos back in the closet for our trip :mickey:

[ginger19]

What would you say the temps for MVMCP if the lows are mid 50's? Would it still be in the 60's? I'm trying to plan what I need to dress the kids for and would appreciate help. We are from NE so we are used to a little cold :)

[Strmchsr]

Heidi, temps tend to drop pretty quickly in Florida once the sun goes down. If you're looking at a low in the mid 50s, I would expect it to be low 60s to around 60 for the MVMCP. Keep in mind also, that the humidity does make it feel a little cooler than what you're used to. Even though the air temperature doesn't sound bad, you would need to dress as if it were about 5-10 degrees cooler as that's what it will feel like. Certainly, being from CT, it won't be a big deal to you, but you don't want the kids to get cold, either.

[ginger19]

That's very helpful information, thank you. My DH will be in shorts and a sweatshirt but it's probably jeans and a sweatshirt for the kids and I.

[tinksmom02]

Our trip is in your forecast! :blush: I told everyone I wasn't starting to pack until you started forecasting for our time frame, even if it's in voodooland. You haven't steered us wrong yet!!

[Strmchsr]

You haven't steered us wrong yet!!

That's a lot of pressure. I'll do my best to keep my record intact. :D

[mom2mickeyfan]

Dec 5 still looks like the big rain day as the front actually moves through and the high drops to around 70.

:sob: This is the day we are planning on going to MVMCP for the first time ever!! We are only going to be there for 2 days so this will be the only day we can go. Crossing my fingers that things change!! :fingers:

[Strmchsr]

Crossing my fingers that things change!! :fingers:

That's always possible. That's why I remind folks that past 7 days the models just aren't reliable. We look at the patterns, but don't worry about anything until it's more like 5-7 days away.

[mom2mickeyfan]

Thanks Chris! I'll check again when it is closer and keep the fingers crossed until then.

[bouncer]

:sob: This is the day we are planning on going to MVMCP for the first time ever!! We are only going to be there for 2 days so this will be the only day we can go. Crossing my fingers that things change!! :fingers:

Dec 5 is our night planned for the Candlelight Processional. I hoping also that the weather is nice that evening :mickey:

[bostonsam]

awe man...can get as cold as it wants to but Please don't rain,please don't rain:paranoid:lol praying...fingers crossed;) ty for the update(s)

[Disney4us2]

awe man...can get as cold as it wants to but Please don't rain,please don't rain:paranoid:lol praying...fingers crossed;) ty for the update(s)

Same here... Please no rain.

[Insanity Clause]

Does the 6th still look like rain? That is our first day there,

[Strmchsr]

Does the 6th still look like rain? That is our first day there,

I don't have all the models in yet. Check back after 11 am CST and I'll have the full update up. However, looking at the early morning models, it looks like still light rain off and on Dec 6 with a heavier rain event on Dec 8. Hopefully voodooland will look better on the afternoon models because this morning it looks like Dec 6-11 will be cold and wet with light isolated showers possible almost every day and heavier rain on Dec 8 & 10. As always, though, that's WAY into voodooland so don't worry about it just yet. I'm sure it'll all change before we get into the "safe" forecast period.

[Insanity Clause]

Thanks...here's hoping that the weather changes so it will it least be dry...maybe it will only rain at night....(I know, I'm delusional)

[Strmchsr]

Thanks...here's hoping that the weather changes so it will it least be dry...maybe it will only rain at night....(I know, I'm delusional)

Well, as I figured, the early afternoon models gave a totally different look. I think you'll have to be patient for a couple of more days before there's a clearer picture as to what to expect. Right now it's nothing but model madness beyond 7 days. Hopefully I can sort it out for you soon.

[angie12210]

I'll be there 12/1-8. It's 11 degrees here in Northwestern Wisconsin right now with heavy winds that make it feel like 20 below. We've got a few inches of snow on the ground. So.....You say rain on the first with high 70's - I'll take it!!!!!!!! God bless you for offering these weather forecasts. They help so much.:number1:

[Strmchsr]

God bless you for offering these weather forecasts. They help so much.:number1:

Thanks! You too. And I hope you have a wonderful trip.:mickey:

[Insanity Clause]

Do you know what time of day the thunderstorm on the 8th should hit or is it still too far out to tell? I am still hoping it will change its mind and cooperate with me.

Thanks for the updates! I don't know what we would do without you!

[bostonsam]

The average temp for dec.is 75 and very little rain...praying;) not too worried

[Strmchsr]

Do you know what time of day the thunderstorm on the 8th should hit or is it still too far out to tell?

Still way too early to tell. Even though I'm comfortable with making forecasts 7 days out, timing is usually not firmed up until 3-5 days out. So, I might know it's going to rain that day, but exactly when remains pretty dicey.


The average temp for dec.is 75 and very little rain.

True, that is the "average". Unfortunately, the average for WDW in December means nothing because it can flip from 60 to 80, which would give you an "average" of 70 in a 2 day span. During some of my December vacations it'll be 80-82 early in the week, the a front comes through with rain and my vacation ends with highs in the 50s. You just never know with December. With La Nina, though, as we have this year, December should be a little milder and drier.

[ginger19]

Your forecast was spot on for our vacation last week! Thank you! You saved me from packing unnecessary "just in case" clothes :thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

Your forecast was spot on for our vacation last week! Thank you! You saved me from packing unnecessary "just in case" clothes :thumbsup:

I'm so glad it was accurate. Drives me nuts when I miss a forecast. :blush: I'm so glad you had a good trip.:mickey:

[2MuchWDFun]

Yay--we're 5 days from voodoo land weather forecasting for our Christmas:santa3::sleigh::santa: week trip! :thumbsup:
Can you tell I can't wait for vacation---are we there yet?
Looking forward to a wonderful weather report. Don't worry, Chris! I'm bringing more then one pair of warm socks this year, so there's no pressure.

[Disney Hungarian]

YAY!!!! My trip is finally in the voodoo cast! And it is looking good. I know that the forecast will change everyday between now and then. But, thank goodness for Chris. I can now pack and re-pack many times between now and Dec. 11th.:thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

I can now pack and re-pack many times between now and Dec. 11th.:thumbsup:

Lol, you sound like my wife. She starts packing at least 2 weeks before we leave and every time the voodooland forecast changes she re-packs. I keep telling her to wait until it's in the "safe" zone but she enjoys the whole packing and re-packing thing. :D

[Disney Hungarian]

Lol, you sound like my wife. She starts packing at least 2 weeks before we leave and every time the voodooland forecast changes she re-packs. I keep telling her to wait until it's in the "safe" zone but she enjoys the whole packing and re-packing thing. :DTo me; that's half the fun. I work for 2 weeks trying to get everything just right. Then when I get to my destination; I spend a couple of hours going to stores to get the things I forgot, or did not think I would need.:mickey: