WDW Weather Forecast - October 31-Nov 16, 2010

[Strmchsr]

Each day in October, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Sunday pm, Oct 31, 2010
:bat::ghost:Happy Halloween!! I hope you have safe and fun one! :jack::mpumpkin:

The high should top off at 86 today and tomorrow. Isolated showers will become possible for Tuesday and Wednesday with a high 82-84 for Tuesday and 80-82 for Wednesday. There's no major rain here, just the possibility of a stray shower or a few clouds. Thursday looks like a rain will be a good possibility at some point, especially in the morning, and the high will be 75-77. Friday and Saturday look clear with highs around 70 and lows 46-48. Sunday should be 72-74 with a low around 50.

Long range...Nov 8-9 stays dry and in the mid 70s for highs with lows 50s for lows. Nov 10-14 warms to around 80, give or take a couple of degrees. Nov 15 looks pretty stormy as a front moves through. Nov 16 clears out with a high in the mid 60s.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
At 12:30 pm CDT, no major issues. For tomorrow, some delays will be possible over eastern TX.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics :fan:
Shary is finished and no need to worry about that storm any longer.

Hurricane Tomas looks a little weaker today with a decrease in thunderstorms around the center and its eye is no longer apparent. The system is probably encountering a little bit of an increase in wind shear and some dry air and may be undergoing eye wall replacement. I expect it to strengthen back soon. Top winds are 90 mph. The hurricane is about 180 miles west of St. Lucia, moving WNW at 9 mph. It will turn more westward or even west southwestward over the next couple of days. It is still expected to increase in intensify in the 3-5 day time frame and could become a Cat 3-4 hurricane. Tomas is expected to be south of Puerto Rico tonight and Hispaniola Monday night. It will slow down as steering currents weaken. It could even meander for a couple of days. It is expected to make a sharp turn to the north and northeast later this week and exit the Caribbean somewhere between eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. This will bring the threat of flooding rains as well as intense winds and surge flooding to some places that don’t need it, including Haiti. However, the models are currently in good agreement that Tomas will not be a threat to WDW.

Click here (http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/faq/hurricane-policy/) for Disney's 2010 hurricane policy.

[jnfr2424]

Thanks for the wonderful updates Stormchaser! We will be in the world on Friday and looking forward to the sunny weather

[Strmchsr]

Have a great trip!

[Belster]

Thanks for the updates!! We are there from 10/22-10/31 hope the weather looks great for that week. :mickey:

We are sooooooooo excited!

[Strmchsr]

Thanks for the updates!! We are there from 10/22-10/31 hope the weather looks great for that week. :mickey:

We are sooooooooo excited!

Right now we're just getting into that time frame, but for theme moment it looks like the end of October will continue the pattern of mostly dry with temps at, or a little below, normal.

[brivers222]

Next week looks amazing! and all clear for the drive down started in the evening TONIGHT!!!


thanks for the constant updates

[Strmchsr]

Next week looks amazing! and all clear for the drive down started in the evening TONIGHT!!!

Have a safe and magical trip! :mickey:

[Cinderelley]

Thanks for the heads up on turbulence on an airplane being like a ship on the water. At one point the right side of our plane dropped while the left didn't. It totally freaked me out at first, until I remembered what you said and how the ship on our last cruise was leaning in the rough seas. :thumbsup:

[Scar]

Oct 24 a cold front moves in bringing some rain and a high in the upper 70s. October 25-27 highs drop into the low 70s with lows in the low 50s. Of course that's voodoo right now, but it looks like the pattern is definitely changing towards cooler weather for the end of the month.This is great news if this holds up. :thumbsup:

Last year this week was record high heat and humidity and it was boarderline unbearable for this Scandinavian.

[Strmchsr]

This is great news if this holds up. :thumbsup:

We never can tell with voodooland, but I think things will be considerably more comfortable for you this year. Hope you have a great trip, brother!


Thanks for the heads up on turbulence on an airplane being like a ship on the water. At one point the right side of our plane dropped while the left didn't. It totally freaked me out at first, until I remembered what you said and how the ship on our last cruise was leaning in the rough seas. :thumbsup:

I'm so glad that tip helped! A little knowledge truly goes a long way in helping make you feel more comfortable.

[disneydear]

Thanks for the new update. We leave in the morning, looks like we'll have great weather. Just hoping we don't have any airport delays as we are leaving from Providence, RI

[Strmchsr]

Just hoping we don't have any airport delays as we are leaving from Providence, RI

Best guess right now is that you'll be okay on the delay front. Thunderstorms should be south of you. That said, expect a bit of turbulence on your flight. Check the section on turbulence under "travel" in the forecast post for some helpful tips. Save travels and I hope you have a magical trip! :mickey:

[MinnieMommie]

ok Chris - we are leaving 10/23 and heading back home 10/30. Please see what you can do in the way of a perfect forecast. My family and I will be looking for your updates each day and we'll wait for a week out to pack. :mickey:

[disneydear]

Best guess right now is that you'll be okay on the delay front. Thunderstorms should be south of you. That said, expect a bit of turbulence on your flight. Check the section on turbulence under "travel" in the forecast post for some helpful tips. Save travels and I hope you have a magical trip! :mickey:

Thanks Chris and thanks for the tips on turbulence;)

[Strmchsr]

ok Chris - we are leaving 10/23 and heading back home 10/30. Please see what you can do in the way of a perfect forecast.

I'm just in public relations, not management, but I'll send a memo to the Boss for you. :mickey:

Waiting a few more days is a good idea. I think the end of the month will be cooler, but it's still up in the air how much cooler (and I'm talking low 70s or around 80, not anything like 50s or 60s for highs).

[Jennifer_and_Chris]

LOVE, LOVE, LOVE the forecast for us! We're leaving Detroit on Sat 16th, hoping to pull up to AKL afternoon of 17th and leaving on 23rd.

THANK YOU !!!! Sounds like perfect weather for us... shorts by day, sweatshirt and jeans by night.:thumbsup:

[DisneyBarb]

Leaving on Oct 22 for a 3 night stay..I'm fine with the 70s! just keep hurricanes/tropical storms away! Thanks for keeping us posted! What a wonderful resource and I won't get to excited about anything in "vodoo" time..

[Belster]

Thanks for the great updates!! We leave on 10/22-10/31....I do not like to hear 40's...ugh!!! Can you change that....haha.

Hope the week is a fairly mild week for weather. Thanks again!:mickey:

[disneymomma2010]

We are going to the world oct 22-27th for my twin sons' birthdays! we are praying for great weather! We were hoping to go to the beach for a few days after we leave disney (27th and 28th). Will it be too cold for the beach? How cold is too cold to play in the ocean?

[Strmchsr]

Will it be too cold for the beach? How cold is too cold to play in the ocean?

I think it will be too cool to play in the water, though not too cool to get your feet wet or walk along the beach. The water temps are starting to fall pretty quickly and by the end of October will be down where you'll get chilly fairly quickly.

[DisneyBarb]

of course if you are from the North, anything above 60 degree water is warm... :)

[Belster]

of course if you are from the North, anything above 60 degree water is warm... :)

So funny I was just thinking the same thing...lol. We are from Chicago.

[Strmchsr]

So funny I was just thinking the same thing...lol. We are from Chicago.

I know it's all relative and I well remember swimming in the waters of Lake Champlain in upstate NY, which are never "warm" but I saw the person who asked the question was from TN, so I based my answer on that.

[rt207]

OK, I've entered "stalking" mode. We arrive on the 31st...:mpumpkin:

[Scar]

Chris,

Can I impart upon you to give a forcast of the humidity for next week?

[Belster]

Thank you so much for the great updates!!! We are arriving on 10/22 and staying until 10/31. We hope that the storm and cold front stay away...lol. :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Chris,

Can I impart upon you to give a forcast of the humidity for next week?

Humidity won't be bad at all. Even with the higher temps, the dewpoints will be pretty low, which means things will cool off pretty quickly in the evenings and the warmth shouldn't feel bad.

[Mitzie]

Chris you are killing me here. We arrive on the 27th with plans to hit MK in the am and MNSSHP in the pm on the 28th. Come on Walt put a good word in with 'The Big Guy' ,smile down on us from above and give us a better forecast.

[Strmchsr]

Chris you are killing me here. We arrive on the 27th with plans to hit MK in the am and MNSSHP in the pm on the 28th. Come on Walt put a good word in with 'The Big Guy' ,smile down on us from above and give us a better forecast.

Don't worry too much about it right now. Lots of model madness out in voodooland. Every run things look different. The morning models today are showing the rain on Oct 29 instead of the 28th. We'll see what the afternoon run says. That said, Orlando DESPERATELY needs rain, so I can't begrudge them any that wants to come their way. If it does rain, it's not a big deal. Some of my best days spent in the parks were rainy days.

[Mitzie]

Thanks Chris for the boost of confidence. We were just liking it better when there was no rain predicted for our stay. Rain on the 29th puts it on our day at Epcot and the F&W..:( I can understand the dry conditions...we too are under a burning restriction in northern Indiana.

[Young@Heart]

Thank you for the updates :mickey:
We'll be arriving on the 27th, with MNSSHP on the 28th and Universal on the 29th. I'm so happy that, at least at this point, those two days appear to be relatively dry. We can deal with some rain on the other days. :mpumpkin:

[Strmchsr]

I'm so happy that, at least at this point, those two days appear to be relatively dry. We can deal with some rain on the other days. :mpumpkin:

Timing is still up in the air on that system. This morning's models show rain moving in later on the 29th (late afternoon or early evening) into the morning of the 30th (gone by lunch). We'll see what the afternoon models say when I give the full update, but I think it'll still be a couple of days before the timing becomes more set.

[Mitzie]

Richard....I used to like the name Richard, not so much these days. Being from Indiana we are not used to dealing with any tropical situations. What exactly are we looking at here if Richard impacts WDW? Torrential rain, strong winds, can't leave the resort kind of thing?

[Strmchsr]

What exactly are we looking at here if Richard impacts WDW? Torrential rain, strong winds, can't leave the resort kind of thing?

Given that there should be heavy shear across the Gulf next week, IF Richard were to impact Florida (still a big if) it shouldn't be more than a little wind and heavy rain. Nothing that should close the parks.

[andypooh]

uh oh
just saw the forecast for 11/6 the day we arrive
blustery and high of 70 is not what i was hoping for. it has been nice and warm lately in wdw. hopefully as it gets closer this forecast will change. looking for 80+ and dry. fingers crossed.


:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

looking for 80+ and dry. fingers crossed.

I know. Everyone always wants the rain to come during someone else's vacation. ;) Orlando desperately needs some rain, though. However, that's WAY into voodooland so don't put any stock in that forecast. As a matter of fact, looking at the afternoon model run, the consensus is that the front will come in on the 4th and the 6th will be dry with a high in the upper 70s to around 80. It'll probably change back and forth for the next couple of days. None of the models are being very consistent with the long range, which is typical this time of the year. As I mentioned in a previous post, though, some of my best days in WDW have been in the rain. If it rains, just grab a poncho and have a great time! :mickey:

[andypooh]

i understand orlando needs the rain and i think they should get a few inches next week :)

i agree disney can be fun in the rain as the crowds really drop. however, my last trip was may 15-20 2009 and if u look at the archives u will see we got hit by a deluge. also i have a 2 and 4 year old and it is a pain in the butt handling the little guys when it is really wet....so here's hoping for dry and in the 80s

14 days to go!!!!


:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

so here's hoping for dry and in the 80s
14 days to go!!!!:mickey:

Well, I'm not sure if you'll get the 80s as the models are continually showing cooler air around that time, but possibly mid to upper 70s. Low 80s aren't out of the question, just not what's showing up right now. And, right now. It all looks dry during that time. Of course, by this afternoon when I do the update all of that might change. The models are really handling the long range pretty poorly, but I'll give you the best info I can so that you can plan for whatever happens.

[andypooh]

thanks a lot
always appreciated

13 days to go!!!

[exvagirl]

:woohoo: Jersey week looks pretty good so far!!! 8 DAYS!!! *single digit dance!!!*

[wdwcarrie]

Any thoughts on whether flights will be able to get out of Milwaukee on Wednesday morning? We are flying out of Milwaukee around 9 am on 10/27 for a long weekend, coming back 10/31 in the morning! It looks like winds may be a factor. Thanks for any info!

[Mitzie]

Our flight is scheduled to fly out of Grand Rapids MI at 5:50 pm. on Wed. Right now they are under a wind advisory starting Tues. morning through Wed. evening. The advisory says winds up through 50 mph, maby alittle higher. Can we expect a delay?

[Strmchsr]

Any thoughts on whether flights will be able to get out of Milwaukee on Wednesday morning?

Yes, flights will be able to get out, but I think you might encounter some delays. Looks like the worst weather for you will be tomorrow with things calming down by tomorrow evening. The worst winds will also be tomorrow. Wednesday will still be pretty windy, but not as bad as Tuesday. So, be prepared for a delay, but you should be able to get out with no problem. Expect a bumpy ride, though, and read my links on turbulence so that you're prepared!


Our flight is scheduled to fly out of Grand Rapids MI at 5:50 pm. on Wed. Can we expect a delay?

You're in a similar situation to what I mentioned above. The winds will still be whipping around pretty good by Wednesday evening, so delays are definitely a likelihood. I think your flight will get out, but winds could cause some issues. I also recommend you read the links on turbulence as your ride could be pretty exciting.

To put what you're facing in perspective, let me do a little explanation. High winds aren't necessarily a problem for airplanes and are often encountered, so high winds by themselves don't always mean delays.

Gusty, variable winds are the problem. Once at crusing altitude, those winds can blow you around and create a rather exciting ride, but they aren't an issue for the flight safety of the airplane. Closer to the ground during take-off and landing is the issue since a strong wind could cause the plane to veer off course. Even a very strong wind isn't really an issue as long as its steady and blowing mostly parallel to the runway. The problem comes with either crosswinds, which the airplane can compensate for to some degree, or gusty winds, which are the most dangerous. I'm telling you that because the winds should be mostly out of the SW. Even though they are strong, as long as the gusts don't occur too frequently then delays shouldn't be a big deal. If the gusts kick up, that's when you might see delays.

[Mitzie]

Ok, so a delay...that poses it's own problem in that we fly into Baltimore and have a 50 min. layover. That flight goes into Orlando. Will Airtran hold that flight for us...I can't imagine they would. (That is the last Airtran flight to MCO that day) If we miss our connecting flight, will Airtran put us on another airline or do we wait till their first flight out the next morning...help, kind of a novice with this. THEN...if we end up spending the night in Baltimore, will Disney refund our night's stay at BWI? Stressing out here.:(

[Strmchsr]

It depends on the length of the delay. My guess is it won't be too long of a delay, but it's impossible to say right now. If you're landing as your connecting flight is ready to take off, they might hold it for 5-10 min. That would probably mean you might make it, but your luggage wouldn't so I would suggest you have a change of clothing in your carry-on.

If you miss the flight and that's the last one out for the day, they usually will put you on the first available in the morning. Sometimes they will connect you via another airline. I'm not sure specifically about Airtran's policy. I would suggest you go ahead and call Airtran's customer service today and ask them these very questions so that you will know what to expect.

As for WDW refunding, usually they don't (that's why they encourage people to have travel insurance) but it would be worth asking. At the very least, call WDW and let them know what's going on if you miss your flight so that they don't assume you a "no show" and cancel your reservation all together.

When you find out something, post back and let me know so that we'll know in the future if someone asks about Airtran.

[Mitzie]

Ok, taking a deep breath here. I will let IPO know what is going on. We did purchase insurance, so not sure how that plays in. I will call Airtran this afternoon. Thanks for the advise.

[Strmchsr]

Ok, taking a deep breath here.

Definitely. It's all going to be okay. Hopefully none of this will be an issue for you and your flight will get off with no problem. However, just in case, you'll have all of your info and won't have to worry at the last second.

[Mitzie]

I spoke with Omer from IPO, who has been wonderful by the way, and he said that since we purchased the insurance we would get that nights stay refunded. He mentioned we needed to call the desk at BWI as soon as we knew we wouldn't make it so they didn't cancel the whole thing and he gave me that number.

Airtran: Spoke to David with customer service and he said that Airtran would try and accommodate us. That could mean a later flight with them or another carrier. He mentioned that the Airtran desk at the Grand Rapids airport would be the main point of information as they would have first hand knowledge of the situation.

Either way, I am just praying that it is not an issue and all goes well.

[Strmchsr]

Either way, I am just praying that it is not an issue and all goes well.

I will do the same. Thanks for the update. I hope you have a wonderful trip! :mickey:

[wdwcarrie]

Thanks for the info. Your updates are so helpful--I truly appreciate it!

[Mitzie]

Wow Chris, it is a little crazy up here in northern Indiana. I was beginning to think Richard decided to drop by here for a visit. So far Grand Rapids airport isn't showing delays so here is hoping tomorrow evening that is the case.

[Strmchsr]

Wow Chris, it is a little crazy up here in northern Indiana. I was beginning to think Richard decided to drop by here for a visit. So far Grand Rapids airport isn't showing delays so here is hoping tomorrow evening that is the case.

No doubt! You guys are under a high risk for severe weather. The SPC doesn't issue those very often. Looks like a very good chance of tornadoes across IN and parts of KY today, so ya'll be careful. The good news for tomorrow is that it still looks like the wind will be fairly consistent. As long as it is consistently out of the SW, as is forecast for the time your plane leaves, you'll be okay. The problem would be if the winds started swirling or became very gusty. Right now that does not look to be the case. So, the winds will be very strong tomorrow evening (sustained 25-30 mph) but nothing the planes can't handle. Delays are possible, but not definite.

[Mitzie]

Yep just spent about 2 hours in a storm situation with students. We had tornado warnings and sirens going off multiple times. All is just windy now with clouds and light rain. Temp. dropped quiet abit.

[BklynChick]

Chris, thank you so much for your forecasts! I found them very helpful (and reassuring) as I planned for our October trip. The weather turned out perfect, with not a drop of rain the entire trip!

[Strmchsr]

Chris, thank you so much for your forecasts! I found them very helpful (and reassuring) as I planned for our October trip. The weather turned out perfect, with not a drop of rain the entire trip!

Excellent! I'm so glad you had a good trip. :mickey:

[tundramom]

Chris thanks for the extended forecast- We will be in the world 11/5-11/14 and I'm packing some warmer gear after reading your report!

[Strmchsr]

Chris thanks for the extended forecast- We will be in the world 11/5-11/14 and I'm packing some warmer gear after reading your report!

Good idea to be prepared, but keep checking as the long range often changes from day to day. I think it's likely it'll be cooler at the end of this week, especially in the evenings and mornings, so you'll want to bring layers so you can take off to keep comfortable as it warms during the day.

[Running_Bell]

I know I shouldn't panic... yet. But, looking at accuweather's 15 day forecast, it shows Nov 11-16 RAIN... no partly cloudy, no isolated anything... just RAIN.

I know it's far ahead, but we're staying in the tent the week of November 12-21

is there something going on... all days before it are partly sunny... then bam? any advice?

[HeadFairyInCharge]

Stormchaser.... Whats up with the Nov 15th outlook You can see activity that far in advance..?
We arrive that day...hoping this hurricane blows through gently with a little rain needed in the area. Do you really think it will bring colder air in for November 15th thru 20th ?? I was hoping for mid 70's maybe 80 since its been historically that way. Last visit was Dec 5-13th 2008 and was a little cold for swimming in pools but nice for the parks ...only got one huge rainy day but way to cold for Florida in Early December...
Give me an update on November 15 to 20th when you see something....hoping for warmer air not colder....I will leave that here in NJ !!:confused:

[Strmchsr]

is there something going on... all days before it are partly sunny... then bam? any advice?

Two things - 1.) Accuweather uses 1 computer model and absolutely no human interaction. All the fill-in-your-zip code sites are like that. Those sites are notoriously inaccurate, especially in the long range. 2.) Anything beyond 7 days is a guess, not a forecast, even for humans and it's not that good for the computers. I'll give a full update this afternoon, but right now the only rain chance I see during those dates is a cold front moving in on either Nov 15 or 16 which cold bring rain and thunderstorms.



Give me an update on November 15 to 20th when you see something....hoping for warmer air not colder....I will leave that here in NJ !!:confused:

Right now the long range models only go through Nov 18, and I'll give a full update through that far this afternoon. For now, though, it looks like Nov 15-16 might be around 80 then a cold front moves in on Nov 16 and drops the temps a little for Nov 17-18, but I'll have to study that more closely this afternoon to see how much of a drop. Keep in mind, anything beyond 7 days is more of looking at patterns than an actual forecast.

[Buttercup]

Hey Stormchaser! I have a sort-of 'general' weather question I wondered if you could answer.

Last January/February were freakishly cold in Orlando -- like unusually, strangely cold for that time of year. Looking through historic calendars, it was sometimes 20-degrees cooler in Jan/Feb 2010 than in years past.

Can it be assumed that it was just a freak one-time occurance? Or is it something bigger going on with weather systems, etc. that is going to take a couple years to get 'back on track' with normal temperatures in Jan/Feb in Central Florida?

It was still fun being in the parks wearing our winter coats and hats this year, but I sure hope I don't have to do it again in 2011!

[Strmchsr]

Can it be assumed that it was just a freak one-time occurance? Or is it something bigger going on with weather systems, etc. that is going to take a couple years to get 'back on track' with normal temperatures in Jan/Feb in Central Florida?

I'm with you on that one! When we arrived at WDW last January it was 32 degrees with snow flurries at noon! Last winter was one of the most consistently cold winters on record and due in part to a very strong El Nino (which also caused the heat this summer). The pattern over the last month or so has switched to a La Nina pattern, which means this winter should be milder and drier than normal. That doesn't mean there won't be cold snaps, but that the consistent cold shouldn't be as severe as last year. I look for temps to average at, or slightly above, normal for Dec-Feb.

[Buttercup]

Oh that's wonderful! Yeah I figured it had something to do with the El Nino/La Nina thing, but I didn't know how quickly those can change back & forth. Thanks for your quick reply, and thanks for being so gosh darn smart about these things! :thumbsup: :high5:

[WDWFanatic]

Hey Chris, hate to be a pain, but will you be updating soon? We are leaving soon and I've been checking this thread almost hourly, lol.

THANKS!

[Strmchsr]

Hey Chris, hate to be a pain, but will you be updating soon? We are leaving soon and I've been checking this thread almost hourly, lol.

THANKS!

I just finished teaching my 11:00 class and will be updating within 30 min. Watch for the new thread to be stickied, though, as I'm closing this one and starting the new November thread. Have a great trip! :mickey: