WDW Weather Forecast - September 29-Oct 15, 2010

[Strmchsr]

Each day in September, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Thursday pm, Sept 30, 2010
The high today should be around 85. For tomorrow through Sunday, highs will run 84-86 with lows 67-69. There is a slight chance of a shower on Saturday as a front moves in, but the front should be pretty dry and those showers will be isolated. Tuesday through Thursday some scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible, but they will be few and far between. With a lot not far off the Florida coast, I can't rule one out, but it doesn't look too likely. Highs will be 85-87 with lows 70-72.

Long range...Oct 8-17 looks completely the same today. Highs in the low to mid 80s, lows in the upper 60s, and mostly dry conditions with only a very slim chance of a pop up afternoon shower. Obviously, things can change in voodooland, especially with the tropics staying active, but the models have all dropped the idea of the Oct 12-13 hurricane. I knew it looked fishy when it first popped up on Monday and Tuesday, but we can't rule it out, and that idea still might come back. We'll just have to wait and see.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
At 1:30 pm CDT, Philadelphia, NYC (all 3) and Boston are reporting delays. No other airport delays are reported, but there are some HUGE travel issues along the east coast for drivers. Be careful! For tomorrow, DC to Maine will be the problem area.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics :fan:
“Nicole” is officially no longer a named storm, and turned out to be a dud for WDW. The rain missed by about 100 miles. Sorry for all the worry on that storm. I get so frustrated when I do the best I can with these things and then they turn into a colossal dud like that. That's why I always remind you don't get too excited about any tropical system more than 3 or so days in advance.

Well, everything looked clear yesterday, but today the National Hurricane Center is investigating thunderstorm activity about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands. Basically two separate tropical waves decided to get together and their combining created an illegal (unforecast) area of activity. There is a moderate chance that this region could see tropical cyclone development by Saturday, and if it gets a name, the “O” storm is “Otto” this year. Storms out that way typically recurve or move toward Florida this time of year so we'll have to watch it closely. Now, the good news is that the SHIPS model keep intensity at a moderate level through Saturday and increases it for Saturday afternoon through Monday. That means the storm will have a fairly difficult time getting its act together. In fact, right now the ECMWF is the only model that develops the storm and it moves the storm towards the Bahamas, not Florida. The other models show an area of thunderstorms, but nothing organized off the Atlantic coast of Florida early next week, but only scattered thunderstorms around WDW. That said, there is a lot of variation in how the models are handling the steering currents for next week, so we certainly can't dismiss this storm right now.

Click here (http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/faq/hurricane-policy/) for Disney's 2010 hurricane policy.

[gollybass]

I have a quick question (being that I arrive to the world on the 12th) Should gaston or Igor progress to hit Florida (which I understand is up in the air still) What would the effect on Orlando, and Disney be? Of course with Orlando being further inland. Are we talking sustained damaging winds? Heavy rain, or just some inclement weather or....?

[Strmchsr]

The answer depends on where the storm comes ashore and how strong it is. In most tropical situations the effect is a very blustery, rainy day. However, in every hurricane situation thus far where WDW has had to shut down (only 7 days in the history of the park, and 1 of those was for 9/11) they've been able to get back to almost full operations by the day after and full operations within 48 hours of landfall.

To directly answer your question, if it's a strong hurricane then you could have hurricane force winds in Orlando. It's not that far inland. But if it hits north or south of Orlando you might just have some thunderstorms. It takes almost a direct hit from a significant hurricane to close the parks.

[Emme&TeddysMommy]

Chris I love reading your posts. Any input on sept 18 - 25?? I know it's early but the storms have been a bit crazy this year.

[Strmchsr]

Chris I love reading your posts. Any input on sept 18 - 25?? I know it's early but the storms have been a bit crazy this year.

Thanks so much!

There's no sign of the wave train letting up coming off of Africa so I'd say pretty much all of September the threat of tropical activity will be present. For the moment, though, that time period looks warm (90-92) and dry. My guess is somewhere towards the end of that period we'll see a cold front moving south, but it's not on the models right now.

[AntMagsMom]

TS Gaston, on the other hand, has me pretty concerned. The NOGAPS turns Gaston back out to sea. The GFS turns it north right over Puerto Rico, then up the US coast on an Earl-like track. But all of the other models have Gaston getting into the Caribbean with a potential threat to Florida coming around Sept 12-13. It's also possible that Gaston will bypass Florida and move into the Gulf. Or it could turn north and miss the entire US. All of those possibilities still exist. The steering currents for the end of next week remain way to uncertain to say for sure. Nothing has worried me up to this point, but Gaston has me concerned. I suppose with all of the new Belle construction in the Fantasyland Expansion we should expect Gaston to be attracted to WDW. Seriously, no need for alarm yet. We just need to watch carefully.


I love your updates but I have to say I HOPE you are wrong about Gaston :(

[Strmchsr]

I love your updates but I have to say I HOPE you are wrong about Gaston :(

Me, too. And I'm not saying Gaston will hit Florida. That's just 1 of 3 possibilities. Right now it's just concern, not saying it'll happen.

[AntMagsMom]

Me, too. And I'm not saying Gaston will hit Florida. That's just 1 of 3 possibilities. Right now it's just concern, not saying it'll happen.

Oh, I know! Thanks for all your updates, they're really the best!! :mickey:

[pianobabe]

Thank you for all of your expertise.

I always start getting more excited about our upcoming trips when I start seeing my dates in your titles.:number1:

[Strmchsr]

I always start getting more excited about our upcoming trips when I start seeing my dates in your titles.:number1:

I think looking for the dates in the forecast is almost as big of a traditional countdown now on Intercot as as waiting for your 180 ADR day. :D

Once your dates hit voodooland you know you're close! :mickey:

[PopPhan]

Congrats on 5 years, Chris! Keep up the great reports!

Tomorrow, you add our first day to your 'voodoo-land' dates!!! Now I know our trip is getting close! (I should have read through the previous posts to see that you had already mentioned this!! LOL)

[EpcotFanatic]

Looks like great news and weather so far for our Sept 25 visit. :thumbsup:

[AntMagsMom]

We'll be there Thursday through Monday ( 9 - 13) other than the usual possible afternoon showers sounds good?

[Strmchsr]

We'll be there Thursday through Monday ( 9 - 13) other than the usual possible afternoon showers sounds good?

Yep. Looks like you'll be fine. All indications right now are that Gaston will stay south of Florida and, if it does get into the Gulf, will be more likely to threaten Mexico or Texas (possibly Louisiana) rather than the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. That's not 100% set, but things look good for you.

[AntMagsMom]

Thank you thank you!! :high5:

This is my second trip that I've followed your weather reports. You rock!!!

[Strmchsr]

Thanks! Hope you have a great trip!:mickey:

[beckylovestink]

I am finally in vooodooooland! Time to get super excited! Now looking forward to beautiful weather and no hurricanes:) Come on Chris!:party:

[EpcotFanatic]

I am finally in vooodooooland! Time to get super excited! Now looking forward to beautiful weather and no hurricanes:) Come on Chris!:party:

I'm there as well! :D I'm ready to pack lol.

[Minniefan68]

Hi Chris,

Anxiously checking your forecast each day. We arrive late on Sept 18th and are hoping for sunshine and blue skies for the week of 9/19-/25.

:thumbsup:

Old Key West Sept '10

[Strmchsr]

Anxiously checking your forecast each day. We arrive late on Sept 18th and are hoping for sunshine and blue skies for the week of 9/19-/25.

lol, I think that's pretty much what we all hope for, right? Of course, if that happened Orlando would be deserted from lack of water.

Still, things look good for you. Right now it doesn't look like any major rain event. Just the normal pop up stuff in the afternoons and those are pretty isolated.

[Minniefan68]

Well, rain is okay as long as it comes at night when we're sleeping. ;)

[beckylovestink]

The models are beginning to show a big trough for Sept 26 which could drop the high to around 80.

I may be asking a dumb question...but what does this actually mean? (The big trough part)

THANKS!:blush:

[Strmchsr]

The models are beginning to show a big trough for Sept 26 which could drop the high to around 80.

I may be asking a dumb question...but what does this actually mean? (The big trough part)

THANKS!:blush:

Not a dumb question at all. Basically that means the atmosphere would allow cooler air to flow southward. If you look at a 2D map of the US and put a wave pattern on the map, if the crest of the waveform were over the Eastern US that would be a ridge, which means warmer/drier condition. When the trough of the wave is over the Eastern US then WDW can expect cooler (and possibly wetter if a front moves south) conditions. The extent of how cool/hot depends on the amplitude of the trough/crest. So, in this specific scenario, that means we may see some cooler temps (by cooler I mean highs in the low to mid 80s) coming to Florida by the end of the month. I still say may because I don't trust the models beyond 7 days and we may have a completely different look tomorrow.

Hope that make sense!

[beckylovestink]

Thanks so much for the explanation! I get it now. Love reading your updates, especially since in am in voodooland heading into the forecast!!!:thumbsup:

[Belster]

Now this is way out...but I remember last year you were able to say based on weather trends what you thought pretty early. So do you think the last week of October is going to be super hot? Last year it seemed abnormally hot, we usually go at that time and it feels wonderful out.

[Cinderelley]

You've started reporting on the weather for our arrival day. Now it feels like our vacation is close. :thumbsup:

[Emme&TeddysMommy]

Thanks for the update! Looks like were going to have a great week:thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

Now this is way out...but I remember last year you were able to say based on weather trends what you thought pretty early. So do you think the last week of October is going to be super hot? Last year it seemed abnormally hot, we usually go at that time and it feels wonderful out.

It's been dry this summer and fall, and adding other factors to that, unless a tropical system hits Florida between now and then I think it will probably average 3-4 degrees above normal, which would put highs in the mid to upper 80s. Not extremely hot, but warmer than normal. As you know, though, that's WAY out there and things could change, but that's my best guess for now given the patterns.

[EpcotFanatic]

So this voodoo hurricane around the 28-29 bringing a good bit of rain and wind... Just bring a poncho type day? :ill:

[Strmchsr]

So this voodoo hurricane around the 28-29 bringing a good bit of rain and wind... Just bring a poncho type day? :ill:

Well, if it were right, no it would be much more than that. However, nothing to worry about right now. That's just something showing up on a model run and until a storm actually forms, there's no need to give it much thought. Models are often wrong in the long term about these things.

[spoiledraf]

After worrying constantly while watching storm after storm develop far out in the Atlantic, it appears our visit next week will haave near perfect weather. Now if the crowds cooperate we'll be in business!!!:thumbsup:

[EpcotFanatic]

When will you have a better idea about the supposed hurricane at the end of the month? I'm guessing the middle of next week?

[Strmchsr]

When will you have a better idea about the supposed hurricane at the end of the month? I'm guessing the middle of next week?

Probably so. Really as soon as an actual storm forms. Right now all we have are tropical waves and until a storm actually forms we're just looking at computer simulations. But, by the middle of next week if any of these waves are going to make it into the Gulf we should know.

[Cinderelley]

If the hurricane develops in the Gulf, will it affect our flight from Arizona to Orlando on the 29th? I'm not a big fan of flying. :blush:

[Strmchsr]

If the hurricane develops in the Gulf, will it affect our flight from Arizona to Orlando on the 29th? I'm not a big fan of flying. :blush:

Depends on where it goes and the timing. It's possible there could be flight delays, but not too likely. If/when this storm develops and we get closer to time, ask me again and I'll give you a flight forecast.

[beckylovestink]

anyone know a dance to keep the tropical voodoo in voodoo land?:blush:

six days away:cloud9:

Here's to a hurricane free week:marg:

FINGER ARE CROSSED, and kids are praying:)

[EpcotFanatic]

anyone know a dance to keep the tropical voodoo in voodoo land?:blush:



You have to dance like Carlton from Fresh Prince of Bel-Air. :thumbsup:

The 25th and 1st are travel days for us. This gives us 5 days to enjoy the parks. Looks like we are making in and out by the skin on our teeth!

[beckylovestink]

ok! Epcotfanatic...but you better be doing it too because we are there the same exact dates...the more that do the Carlton the better.

:cool:

[Strmchsr]

The 25th and 1st are travel days for us. This gives us 5 days to enjoy the parks. Looks like we are making in and out by the skin on our teeth!


ok! we are there the same exact dates

What's frustrating is that the models continue showing something different every single run. No consistency at all other than the storm formation, so I have no clue what's going to happen. After most of yesterday showing the storm moving towards Texas, this morning most of the models show the storm barely brushing the Florida Atlantic coast on Sept 29-30 then moving up the east cost to hit South Carolina. Ugh. We'll just have to see if/when this thing forms.

[EpcotFanatic]

That just made my morning! I'm taking this one day at a time right now. :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

That just made my morning! I'm taking this one day at a time right now. :mickey:

That's the way to do it! I'll have the full update with all of the afternoon models by 1:30 pm EDT so we'll see what it looks like then.

[EpcotFanatic]

I guess my week is going to be good after all!! :party: :beer:

[BigRedDad]

I guess I have to keep my eye on voodooland. I lived in south FL until I was 29. Only helped my dad board the house 2 times in the 80s. Now, voodooland is hinting at a potential hurricane the day we fly in. Still not concerned because the odds are so low. Just gotta keep an eye out.

[YatesMom]

We're in the World Oct 2-8....looks like we could be in for some soggy weather:cry:
Will be watching the updates listed here like a hawk. First trip for my 14 month old and second trip for the 4 and 8 year olds. Traveling for the first time with my best friends family...so many plans...no time for Hurricanes...please send up some pixie dust for decent weather with nothing severe...:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Now, voodooland is hinting at a potential hurricane the day we fly in. Still not concerned because the odds are so low. Just gotta keep an eye out.


please send up some pixie dust for decent weather with nothing severe...:mickey:

The models continue to change. The potential good news is that several of the models are consistently showing a deep trough over the US by the end of next week. Because of that, the hurricane is now shown being pulled into the Atlantic, barely brushing Florida's Atlantic coast. There's actually 2 storms shown now. One brushes Fl on Sept 30 and on on Oct 5. If it plays out like the models show this morning then WDW would see the risk of thunderstorms on those dates, but nothing major.

I have some meetings early afternoon, so it'll be mid afternoon (2:30 or so) before I get the full update up.

[EpcotFanatic]

Is that storm off the coast of South America any threat from 25th-1st? I'm guessing that could be the one that pops up around the 29th?

[Strmchsr]

Is that storm off the coast of South America any threat from 25th-1st? I'm guessing that could be the one that pops up around the 29th?

Yes, the wave currently just north of Venezuela is the one the models are showing to eventually become our first hurricane threat.

[yjgirl32]

Bummer we are leaving o Sept 30th to drive down from Pa and will be in Disney on Oct1st till the 12th. The 5th we have an Epcot day so nothing too bad. Thanks for updating.

[Strmchsr]

Bummer we are leaving o Sept 30th to drive down from Pa and will be in Disney on Oct1st till the 12th. The 5th we have an Epcot day so nothing too bad. Thanks for updating.

There's still a lot of uncertainty with this potential storm, so don't make any specific plans based on the data from today. It's probably still 3-4 days away from having a clearer picture of how things will go.

[Disney Doll]

We're headed down Sept 23-30 and I have been glued to these updates in the last several days. Thanks so much for taking the time to do this! It's much appreciated even if the predictions aren't what we want to hear.

[Strmchsr]

Thanks, Michelle. I hope you have a great trip and check back in about 30 min for the latest update.

[EpcotFanatic]

The NHC says the storm is moving west over the northern part of Venezuela & Colombia during the next few days. The further away the better! Waiting on Chris's update. :mickey:

[beckylovestink]

Waiting on pins and needles:):cool:

[Strmchsr]

The NHC says the storm is moving west over the northern part of Venezuela & Colombia during the next few days. The further away the better! Waiting on Chris's update. :mickey:

Just posted. Sorry for the delay. Got held up in the meetings.

[yjgirl32]

Thanks for the updates. We are just going with our plans and hoping the storm doesn't happen.

[brivers222]

You know i loved reading these updates... but never understood the "excitement" people had until my dates are slowly creeping into play in the thread... Now i get it :thumbsup:

thanks a lot for the updates!!!!

[DisneyNut6777]

:mickey: Chris, just wanted to thank you for all the hard work that goes into your weather updates. DW and I are driving to WDW. We are leaving middle TN Oct 16th (Early) and are staying at the Poly for 5 nights, and then headed down to stay with my Mom and Dad in Sebring for 6 nights. Sure hope Storms can stay away. Have been reading your thoughts, and NOAA, and Joe Bastardi on ACCU-WEATHER and it looks like Sept/October can be a tad bit tense as far as the tropics are concerned. Thanks for the info, talk to you soon. Vann, and Gina from TN:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

You're welcome. I hope you guys have a safe and storm-free trip! :mickey:

[EpcotFanatic]

The one thing that I like about the GFS predictions (in regards to my trip) is that it's been constantly showing Oct 1st as a landfall date for Florida.

Obviously we all know what the storms bring. But would a tropical storm or hurricane in the region spur more wind/rain/thunderstorms before the storm it self arrives?

[Strmchsr]

Obviously we all know what the storms bring. But would a tropical storm or hurricane in the region spur more wind/rain/thunderstorms before the storm it self arrives?

It really depends on which side of Florida it goes. That's the big issue right now. I think it will impact Florida around Oct 1, but if it slides up the Atlantic coast, no, WDW wouldn't see much impact at all. If it comes up the Gulf coast, then, yes, you would likely see rain bands and thunderstorms begin to move in ahead of the storm. Even 12-24 hours before the storm moves ashore. If it moves right up the middle as shown this morning, you would see some advance rain, but not as early nor as much. So, the big question is exactly where it goes in relation to Florida. Keep in mind that the advance rainbands would probably not delay you much, if at all, in getting out of Orlando. They are generally low-topped storms that planes can fly around. You would just have to deal with some bumpy air for a while. Having flown in the hurricane hunter plane a few times, I can definitely vouch that ride is better than any at WDW. :D

[Emsparents]

Talk about letting the air out of my balloon. According to the forcast here all we have to look forward to on our upcoming trip is garbage weather and the chance for the parks to be closed. We have waited all year for this trip and now the hurricane season decides to ramp up and put Florida in its sights after 5 years of nothing! Sorry to rant but we had a lot riding on this trip and now it looks miserable! I am just so bummed and considering moving the trip all together. We are to fly to Orlando Sept 30 and return October 9. If we have to cancel or move the trip it will break my little girls heart. again sorry for the rant just very unexcited about a trip we were so excited about before:confused:

[Strmchsr]

We are to fly to Orlando Sept 30 and return October 9. If we have to cancel or move the trip it will break my little girls heart. again sorry for the rant just very unexcited about a trip we were so excited about before:confused:

I'm so sorry. I feel your pain. It really is a role of the dice to go during hurricane season. Don't make any decisions just yet. Read over the hurricane policy link I've posted so that you're aware of your options, but it's still possible that the storm will slide to the eastern side of Florida (or, less likely, but still possible) dissipate over Central America. The other storms are still "voodoo." They haven't formed yet, so a lot of this is up in the air. Hang on to a little hope. I think you'll have enough information to make your decision by Saturday or Sunday. The picture should be much clearer then. Check back this afternoon, also, for another update.

[brivers222]

For the 2nd week in October the weather is sure sounding bleek...

I guess its time to stock up on the $.87 toss away ponchos from walley-world (aka walmart) as well as that waterproof spray on our shoes... Rain isn't going to slow us down! Perhaps with the wind if we hit it right, it will speed us up!!! Need to get me some Daper Dan hair treatment to keep my perfect folicules in check ;) Oh an can't forget to treat my car to some Rain-x for the trip... can't have the black pearl getting halted in the rain! (yes thats what i named my black honda Fit with jolly rogers on it)

It's appearing though there is a reason why i always went in May... Weather seems to be a little better. Then again in 25 days in May we have gone with about 1 total day of rain... I am sure this week is mother natures make up.

Makes my decision to have a plethera of TS ADRs seem pretty genius right now.

::EDIT:: this is my 222nd post... YAY!!!

[Strmchsr]

For the 2nd week in October the weather is sure sounding bleek...

Check the update from this afternoon and you'll see things look a little better. I imagine things will continue to go back and forth like that for a while so don't get too fixated on one specific scenario until you hear me say this is for sure what's going to happen.

[brivers222]

Check the update from this afternoon and you'll see things look a little better. I imagine things will continue to go back and forth like that for a while so don't get too fixated on one specific scenario until you hear me say this is for sure what's going to happen.

Coolio... yeah I am not getting too worked up. Really being down in disney in the rain will be better than being up in michigan in the rain! at least its warmer down there :)

[kcmckay]

First of all, Thank You for keeping us informed on all the action! It is much appreciated.
We are flying home from orlando to detroit on Oct 2 at 10am. Do you think the possible storm is going to cancel our flight?

[Cinderelley]

:(I am rather sad to see your departure date on your updates.

[Strmchsr]

First of all, Thank You for keeping us informed on all the action! It is much appreciated. We are flying home from orlando to detroit on Oct 2 at 10am. Do you think the possible storm is going to cancel our flight?

Definite possibility. Timing is everything, though, and we don't know the exact timing of the storm yet. According to this morning's models, you'll be staying put on Oct 2, but until the storm clears the Yucatan we can't be sure of the timing of the impact on Florida.

[Emsparents]

it should be picked up by a deep upper trough over the eastern third of the U.S. late next week. The GFS continues the idea of this one impacting South Florida in about a week, followed by a northeast motion up the East Coast of the U.S. Can you clarify this statement? So are we looking at possible storm at WDW October 2nd or October 10? .

The most likely solution now looks like some thunderstorms will begin the afternoon of Oct 1 with the hurricane hitting Florida around Tampa on Oct 2. That would definitely close the parks on Oct 2. Also a clarification on this. If your statement above is correct it is going up the east coast via south florida. How does this have it coming through Tampa and Orlando which is Central Florida?

Sorry for the confusion and questions I am just trying to make decisions which will impact my vacation and I am trying to understand this thing as best I can. Up till now all I have gotten is frustration. I check out the weather boards and every post, forcast, and outlook contradicts itself every 5 minutes! Between that and armchair meteorologists forcasting gloom and doom and a storms wiping florida off the face of the map, I am about to go nuts!:mad:

Any how thanks for the updates and information. heres hoping this thing goes poof and dissapears over central america!!!

[Strmchsr]

Can you clarify this statement? So are we looking at possible storm at WDW October 2nd or October 10? . Also a clarification on this. If your statement above is correct it is going up the east coast via south florida. How does this have it coming through Tampa and Orlando which is Central Florida?

I'm sorry for the frustration. I know it's difficult to plan a vacation that you look forward to and have something like this happen. I'll be here to walk you through all of it.

Ok...the issue about the trough. Basically, picture the atmosphere looking like a U over the eastern United States. The bottom of the U is the bottom of the trough. That is supposed to be over central Florida by the end of this week. The tropical system will link into the "U" and ride it from there. So, what will happen is the storm will approach, and impact, South Florida, but then will lift to the north along the Florida Gulf coast . As the U heads more NE the storm will come inland (around Tampa) move across central Florida) including Orlando) and emerge into the Atlantic Ocean where it will continue to ride the trough (the right side of the U) up the East Coast. For now, it looks like the storm will begin to impact South Florida on Oct 1, hit Orlando on Oct 2, and be out of Florida moving up the East Coast on Oct 3. That, however, is a model consensus. Every model has a slightly different track and timing. So, I'm putting my experience and expertise together with all of that to give you my best idea of what might happen, but that's why I keep saying it's not set in stone. From there, the models are keeping the other storms out there either south of Florida or out to sea in the Atlantic. So, at the moment, the only threat to Florida over the next couple of weeks appears to be this Saturday (or around that time).

I hope that helps, and please feel free to ask any questions you have. I want you to have all of the clarification and info you need. Seeing as I'm a native West Virginian, I want to do you right.:thumbsup:

[Emsparents]

FINALLY someone with some sense!!!!

Thanks for your help with this I REALLY appreciate it!! Should of know you were a Mountaineer!!!!!

Thanks and God Bless, I will keep close tabs on your forecasts!:number1:

[Kbeauty63]

I'm leaving for WDW in the morning - it can rain on me - I don't care! I'm spending my birthday with The Mouse... And I'm thinking positive it won't rain on Tuesday night - so I can enjoy the Halloween party!
Karen

[Strmchsr]

I'm leaving for WDW in the morning - it can rain on me - I don't care! I'm spending my birthday with The Mouse... And I'm thinking positive it won't rain on Tuesday night - so I can enjoy the Halloween party!
Karen

I hope you have a great trip! I'll give a full update this afternoon, but looking at this morning's models, it looks like about a 50-50 shot of rain on Tuesday. Honestly, I think you will see some rain at some point during the day, but it doesn't look like anything too heavy or long-lasting. Maybe just intermittent showers. Shouldn't impact your MNSSHP enjoyment! I hope you have a :birthday: !

[GrumpyFan]

The most likely solution now looks like some thunderstorms will begin the afternoon of Oct 1 with the hurricane hitting Florida around Tampa on Oct 2. That would definitely close the parks on Oct 2.

Sorry for the confusion and questions I am just trying to make decisions which will impact my vacation and I am trying to understand this thing as best I can. Up till now all I have gotten is frustration. I check out the weather boards and every post, forcast, and outlook contradicts itself every 5 minutes! Between that and armchair meteorologists forcasting gloom and doom and a storms wiping florida off the face of the map, I am about to go nuts!:mad:

Any how thanks for the updates and information. heres hoping this thing goes poof and dissapears over central america!!!

I understand your frustration, we'll be there 10/4 - 10/9, so we're watching to see what's going to happen as well. However, living in Houston, and being a veteran of numerous trips to WDW during hurricane season, we've seen these things a few times. Anything can happen.

It may not be very comforting, but the best you can do right now is be patient and wait it out. As Strmchsr says, it's still "voodoland", meaning anything greater than 4 or 5 days is pretty near guess-work. At this time, this storm is still in the Caribbean and is about to make landfall in Nicaragua, once it does it could go anywhere. The computer forecast models look like spaghetti or a spider, which means nobody really knows. So, hold tight, and just keep watching, or if it makes you nervous, don't watch, just wait until a day or two before and see what happens.

The way I figure is, we've never been there when one of these hit, it could be a neat new experience. Not that I want to see it happen, but, from what I've heard, Disney is one of the best places to be during a storm like this, they take really good care of their guests. So, wait and see.

BTW: We're staying at Pop as well, maybe we'll run into each other.

[BigRedDad]

I can't put the website in here directly, but do a google search for "Crown Weather". This site has maps out the beejeezis. You may be able to get a visual of exactly what Stormchaser is saying.

If you want doom and gloom information, go to any of the local weather stations that feed on panic and fear.

[EpcotFanatic]

If you want doom and gloom information, go to any of the local weather stations that feed on panic and fear.

Been there done that, just ask Strmchsr. :blush: I'm REALLY relieved though. My flight leaves at 1:25 on Friday the 1st, 99.9% sure a thunderstorm won't keep us grounded. :thumbsup:

[I_Love_Disney]

First of all... thank you so much for providing this information. I've been to WDW during the months of Sept/Oct for the past 4 years, and this is the first time I'm a little apprehensive.

My flight leaves the Westcoast the evening of Sept 30, arriving early Oct 1. Should I be worried about cancellations?

I really don't know what to do at this point. I'm not concerned about the weather once we arrive, just my flight getting there. :unsure:

Thanks again!

[Strmchsr]

My flight leaves the Westcoast the evening of Sept 30, arriving early Oct 1. Should I be worried about cancellations?

It all depends on timing. The good news is you're coming from the right direction. Flying from the west you'll stand a much lower risk of getting flight delays than if you were travelling along the East Coast. As for your specific flight, though, if the storm hits Oct 2, no problem. If it hits during the day of Oct 1, you may very well face delays/cancellations getting into Orlando. This is all still a huge IF, though. The National Hurricane Center is projecting a pretty long stint over land for Matthew and it could be he dissipates before getting to Florida.

[BugeyedMuggy]

I hope your latest forecast is correct or an even better one :fingers:.. We leave on Oct 2nd. Last nite we bought refundable tickets for Oct 1st & the 3rd. Hopefully we can use our original tickets as they are one third the price. But we will get there one way or another.

[YatesMom]

Sorry if this is a redundant question...
Our trip dates are as stated above. From the most recent update, it sounds like there doesn't appear to be any storms currently going to mess up our plans for the beginning of our vacation. Is there still a possibility of another storm on Oct 5? Or are we pretty much in the all clear???
THANKS so very much for all the time you take to ease the minds of those of us headed to the World with our little ones! It really helps to be prepared!!:mickey:

[BigRedDad]

Don't rule anything out. There is to much uncertainty going on and no one knows what is going on. I am flying down on Oct 6th and still a little concerned. Nothing I can do regardless, so worrying too much is a waste of time. All any of us can do is wait and see.

[Strmchsr]

Or are we pretty much in the all clear???

Nothing is in the clear yet. Just way too much uncertainty. What I stated in the forecast was only from the 12z model runs and things seem to be changing from run to run. So, stay tuned and we should know more in another day or two.

[BigRedDad]

I think I speak for everyone traveling the beginning of October. This storm has been nothing short of a pain to watch. The weather systems are all over the place. I can only hope that some of the models are correct leaving this storm in Central America or still passing over FL on Oct 2-3.

All I can say is the next 5 days are going to be a pain to watch.

[Strmchsr]

I think I speak for everyone traveling the beginning of October. This storm has been nothing short of a pain to watch.

Amen! It's been a nightmare to forecast, too. Honestly, in all my years of doing this I don't think I've ever seen a situation this complicated. Hopefully ya'll will bear with me and I'll give you the best info I can.

The afternoon models aren't changing much. Still showing this system hitting on Wednesday with another storm moving in Oct 5-6. I'll give a full update around 2 CDT.

[YatesMom]

If one/both of these were to hit during a trip to WDW...is it typically a one day thing or do the effects of the storm rain out the days before/after? I could manage expectations around one day of entertaining the kids when they know they are but mere minutes from all the rides and attractions, but if something of this magnitude will generally ruin several days in a row, that's a horse of another color...Any advice you could give would be appreciated. THANKS!

[Strmchsr]

If one/both of these were to hit during a trip to WDW...is it typically a one day thing or do the effects of the storm rain out the days before/after?

In general, you don't see parks closed more than 1 day. It all depends on the timing of the storm, but only once in the entire almost 40 year history of Disney World have they been closed for more than 1 day due to a hurricane.

[YatesMom]

Thanks for all the info...will keep my eyes on your thread for the remainder of the week....hopefully we'll get some good news for Oct 5-6 by then. Would love to see it go poof and disappear. :fingers:

[Strmchsr]

Would love to see it go poof and disappear. :fingers:

That's a very real possibility. It all depends on if the "parent" low stays in the western Caribbean and spawns "baby" lows that develop into these tropical systems (as some of the models are saying) or if the entire parent low gets swept to the east (as other models are saying). Hopefully we'll know by tomorrow afternoon which of those two scenarios are going to pan out.

[BigRedDad]

How painful is this to watch?!?!?! There is no place of interest at the moment in the Caribbean or Atlantic. However, models yesterday showed many areas of interest for growth.

There doesn't seem to be another pressure system coming in from the West Coast. It looks like the current low that was supposed to drag Matthew back moved east enough to leave Matthew and push away the storms south of Cuba away.

[Strmchsr]

There doesn't seem to be another pressure system coming in from the West Coast. It looks like the current low that was supposed to drag Matthew back moved east enough to leave Matthew and push away the storms south of Cuba away.

Looks like this morning that there will be little pulses coming off the low in the western Caribbean, but none of them develop into anything major. Tropical storm status, possibly, but not a major hurricane. So, Wednesday will probably have some thunderstorms, but nothing too bad. Same for Oct 5. However, there are other potential storms out there that could be major IF they reach land. It's going to be a LONG couple of weeks watching the tropics.

[Cinderelley]

Looks like this morning that there will be little pulses coming off the low in the western Caribbean, but none of them develop into anything major. Tropical storm status, possibly, but not a major hurricane. So, Wednesday will probably have some thunderstorms, but nothing too bad. Same for Oct 5. However, there are other potential storms out there that could be major IF they reach land. It's going to be a LONG couple of weeks watching the tropics.

Will any of this unpredictable weather affect my flight from Phoenix to Orlando on Wednesday?

[Strmchsr]

Will any of this unpredictable weather affect my flight from Phoenix to Orlando on Wednesday?

Very possibly. It's going to entirely depend upon timing. The system doesn't look like it will be all that big, so I don't expect am impact of 12-18 hours like we can sometimes see with a tropical storm. It's very possible, however, that there will be a 3-4 hour block where MCO is grounded. Exactly when that is, though, I can't say just yet. Some models bring it in late Wednesday and others on Thursday morning. I think you'll make it, regardless. Just be prepared for potential delays.

[brivers222]

Our arrival dates (oct 9th) are looking a little better now the closer we get... Are there any issues with roads going to florida (heading from Michigan on I75) that would be closed due to flooding?

Just wondering if there was any issues driving down in the rain/storm other than the obvious visability?

[GrumpyFan]

I don't want to send anyone into a panic, but The Weather Chanel has a good article today titled, "The Next Tropical Threat", you can see it on their site. It gives some good details, if you're interested, and pictures of what might happen next with the remnants of Matthew. I should add too, that they basically say alot of what Strmchsr has already said, only they have fancy slides to show off. ;)



So, Matthew has "officially" dissipated. But there is there still a conflagration of thunderstorms in the western Caribbean.

A sprawling area of low pressure remains, in the wake of Matthew, extending well into the western Caribbean Sea.

Forecast guidance indicates the broad area of low pressure may try to gather itself and strengthen later this week, possibly becoming the next named storm, "Nicole".

That said, where would this system go?

High-pressure aloft over the northern Gulf and southern U.S. will weaken and shift eastward to the Atlantic thanks to a dip in the jet stream aloft carving southward out of the Midwest.

This would provide an "alley" for any tropical entity lurking in the northwest Caribbean to be drawn to toward the north or northeast, toward the Southeast U.S.

The bottom line is that in either case the pattern would be favorable for a tropical system to come northward and impact the United States, most likely Florida, possibly the Southeast coast. So, stay tuned. It looks like they're saying that IF this does happen, it will quickly move to the Northeast, so, the impact may only be brief (a day or so).

[Strmchsr]

Are there any issues with roads going to florida (heading from Michigan on I75) that would be closed due to flooding?

No, it's been a pretty dry summer all over the south this year. We could probably take 2-3 big time tropical systems before flooding would even start to be a concern. What's forecast to move over Florida wouldn't last long enough to present driving problems unless the storm itself were hitting that day.

[Strmchsr]

I should add too, that they basically say alot of what Strmchsr has already said, only they have fancy slides to show off. ;)

Maybe we need to have another Intercot fund-raising drive so I can post all those fancy slides too. :D

[GrumpyFan]

Our arrival dates (oct 9th) are looking a little better now the closer we get... Are there any issues with roads going to florida (heading from Michigan on I75) that would be closed due to flooding?

Just wondering if there was any issues driving down in the rain/storm other than the obvious visability?

It's too far out to predict, but unless a storm hits next week and camps out over TN, GA or FL, you should be okay. Several years back there was a storm system (forget the name) that hit south Georgia and caused lots of flooding. I think the system stalled out, similar to what Matthew has done in central america this weekend, and dumped heavy amounts of rain in just a few days, overflowing all the rivers and streams in the areas. Most tropical systems tend to move pretty fast and dissipate pretty quickly once they hit land, but occasionally, something like this happens. Hopefully, nothing like this is imminent in the next couple of weeks.

As of now though, I don't think there are any closings along I-75. There is a website that has national updates for highways. It's a government site, run by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), just Google "National Traffic and Road Closure" and it should be the first link. They have lots of great information available, including something I wasn't aware of, 511 which a phone number you can dial for traffic and road info. But, check your state and carrier because it's not necessarily free everywhere.

National Traffic and Road Closure Information (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CBYQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fhwa.dot.gov%2Ftrafficinfo%2F&ei=os-gTK-YMoHGlQej6M30CQ&usg=AFQjCNHi49ikZ21GEwJ00aNcUiPBsuZniA&sig2=FgtRKVmeLokLYkdVEmzD_w)

[brivers222]

As of now though, I don't think there are any closings along I-75. There is a website that has national updates for highways. It's a government site, run by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), just Google "National Traffic and Road Closure" and it should be the first link. They have lots of great information available, including something I wasn't aware of, 511 which a phone number you can dial for traffic and road info. But, check your state and carrier because it's not necessarily free everywhere.

National Traffic and Road Closure Information (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CBYQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fhwa.dot.gov%2Ftrafficinfo%2F&ei=os-gTK-YMoHGlQej6M30CQ&usg=AFQjCNHi49ikZ21GEwJ00aNcUiPBsuZniA&sig2=FgtRKVmeLokLYkdVEmzD_w)

oh excellent, thank you very much

[Cinderelley]

Very possibly. It's going to entirely depend upon timing. The system doesn't look like it will be all that big, so I don't expect am impact of 12-18 hours like we can sometimes see with a tropical storm. It's very possible, however, that there will be a 3-4 hour block where MCO is grounded. Exactly when that is, though, I can't say just yet. Some models bring it in late Wednesday and others on Thursday morning. I think you'll make it, regardless. Just be prepared for potential delays.

Could it be a bumpy ride?

[Strmchsr]

Could it be a bumpy ride?

Definitely. I've had a few rides on the Hurricane Hunter in my day and we didn't call it the :sick: Comet for nothing. :D

I don't think it'll be too bad, but be prepared for a pretty bumpy ride just in case. If turbulence makes you nervous, check the links under the travel impact section in the forecast.

[BugeyedMuggy]

Thank you so much for all your efforts to keep us posted & updated so often. I know my family appricates this.

[Cinderelley]

Definitely. I've had a few rides on the Hurricane Hunter in my day and we didn't call it the :sick: Comet for nothing. :D

I don't think it'll be too bad, but be prepared for a pretty bumpy ride just in case. If turbulence makes you nervous, check the links under the travel impact section in the forecast.

Lol.

I did read the links, but didn't understand them very well. I will handle turbulence much better knowing it is probably from the weather though and not a catastrophe waiting to happen. Thanks for keeping me updated for our trip. :D

[Strmchsr]

I did read the links, but didn't understand them very well.

The main thing to understand is this - turbulence can cause the plane to move up and down, but picture it like a boat on the waves. We don't worry about a boat sinking as it rides the waves. The same goes for planes. The atmosphere actually operates very similar to the oceans, so calling planes "airships" is very accurate.

The other thing to remember is that because you are moving forward at a high rate of speed, a 50 foot sudden drop in altitude will feel like a 500 foot drop. During severe turbulence it always feels MUCH worse than it actually is. Keep those two things in mind and it shouldn't be too bad for you. Have a great trip!

[Belster]

Ohhhhhhhh man!!! I am almost in vooooodooooo land....wooooooooohoooooooo!

[Cinderelley]

The main thing to understand is this - turbulence can cause the plane to move up and down, but picture it like a boat on the waves. We don't worry about a boat sinking as it rides the waves. The same goes for planes. The atmosphere actually operates very similar to the oceans, so calling planes "airships" is very accurate.

The other thing to remember is that because you are moving forward at a high rate of speed, a 50 foot sudden drop in altitude will feel like a 500 foot drop. During severe turbulence it always feels MUCH worse than it actually is. Keep those two things in mind and it shouldn't be too bad for you. Have a great trip!

Thank you for that simile. I will keep it in mind when we get on the plane in 7 hours. :D

[brivers222]

Oct 8-17 looks completely the same today. Highs in the low to mid 80s, lows in the upper 60s, and mostly dry conditions with only a very slim chance of a pop up afternoon shower. Obviously, things can change in voodooland, especially with the tropics staying active, but the models have all dropped the idea of the Oct 12-13 hurricane.

Thats our entire trip!!! :cloud9:

[BraddyB]

I am liking that outlook alot better than worrying about a hurricane. :D

[brivers222]

I am liking that outlook alot better than worrying about a hurricane. :D

we still have to keep the good weather hush hush... storms all week... parks closed :secret: