WDW Weather Forecast - June 30-July 16, 2010

[Strmchsr]

Each day in June, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Wednesday pm, June 30, 2010
The high today will hit 93 with thunderstorms firing up all around WDW. Tomorrow will have a high 91-93 with scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Friday through Monday will have an excellent chance of thunderstorms each afternoon with highs 88-90. Tuesday and Wednesday will go back to 90-92 with the afternoon thunderstorms becoming more scattered once again. Lows over the next 7 days will be in the 74-76 range.

Long range...July 8-9 look normal for summer with highs in the low 90 and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. A new feature pops up on this afternoon's models. Several are showing the dreaded 594mb heat bubble over Orlando for July 10-13 which would mean highs 96-98 and only a very slim chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. July 14-16 the highs will back down to 93-95 as the heat bubble slides off to the west and afternoon thunderstorms will become more common again.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
No delays at 2:15 pm CDT. For tomorrow, the main delay threat should be over Texas as Alex comes ashore.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics :fan:
Hurricane Alex has become organized and may become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall, as it still is over warm water and has light shear. Reconaissance aircraft found 92 knots (105 mph) at flight level at 9:44 am CDT. Even though it will make landfall on the Mexican Coast, it has a very large wind field, with tropical storm force winds expected along the south Texas coast, and 20 knots or more over much of the western Gulf. Alex should move inland late tonight on the Mexican coast, about 150 miles south of Brownsville, Texas (NHC has adjusted the track a little to the south). It's interesting to note that Alex is the first June hurricane in the Atlantic basin since 1995. The system will dissipate over the mountains of northern Mexico by the end of the week.

Nothing else specific is brewing at the moment.

Click here (http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/faq/hurricane-policy/) for Disney's 2010 hurricane policy.

[elmjimmlm]

We will be there on the 18th and I was looking at the extended forcast on Accuweather and it has a high of 116° and a low of 92° on the 17th... Do you think this was just typed in wrong or our we looking at really high temps. that week?

[Strmchsr]

Wow. Now that's a heat wave! :D That's just a computer glitch. I just looked and it's still there (though cooled off to 114 now) As I've mentioned before, no human interacts with the Weather Channel, Accuweather, or any of the other fill-in-your-zip-code sites. It's strictly data entered from 1 computer model. As a result, a glitch in the computer will give you results like that.

As an aide, it would be physically impossible for Orlando to get that hot. The high moisture content in the air actually makes it extremely rare for Orlando to even hit 100. Now, the heat index can hit 110, but the actual air temp almost never.

[elmjimmlm]

I thought it looked odd... It said the real feel would be 187°... I think our shoes would melt to the ground...:blush:
Thanks... I can't wait... So excited...:thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

Dr. William Gray and his team at Colorado State University updated their hurricane season outlook earlier this week: “Information obtained through May 2010 indicates that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2010 will have about 10 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 18 named storms (average is 9.6), 90 named storm days (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 major hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity is estimated to be well above its long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2010 to be approximately 195 percent of the long- term average. We have increased our seasonal forecast from early April.”

All you really need to know about this is that the probability of a landfall over Florida is higher than normal. Predicting the actual number of storms is a waste of time and almost never right, but the fact that the probability of landfall this year being higher than normal is spot on. Florida hasn't taken a direct hit from a hurricane in 5 years. It's due. I'm not saying that to alarm you, but to say if you're traveling during hurricane season make sure you know the policy and trip insurance isn't a bad idea.

[happy day]

When are most hurricanes active?

[Strmchsr]

When are most hurricanes active?

mid August through September. Things generally start calming down a little by the time we get to October.

[Strmchsr]

Here's a column one of my dear friends in Birmingham wrote. This, precisely, details the challenges of summer weather. Substitute Florida for Alabama and everything else is perfectly applicable for WDW in the summer.


Summer poses a special challenge for meteorologists that work here in the Deep South. Quite frankly, we do a lousy job of handling the small scale features that bring subtle weather changes on a day to day basis.

WHAT WE KNOW: The weather will be hot and humid just about every day June through August. And, it will rain during the afternoon on a daily basis.

WHAT WE DON’T KNOW: There is no way of knowing at 7:00 a.m. where the showers and storms will form on a summer afternoon at 3:00 p.m. in most cases. There is no real skill in forecasting placement and coverage of airmass thunderstorms that form on just about every summer afternoon in Alabama, and that can frustrate the pants off the best forecasters.

POP HATER: POP in this case means “probability of precipitation”. The NWS uses POPs, and quite frankly we started using them last year in the seven day forecast that shows up on ABC 33/40 News. We did that in response to public demand; we are not here to produce products that make us happy, but products that match our viewers needs. But, let me clearly me say I do not like POP in a public forecast.

For example, on most summer days, you will hear this kind of forecast: “Partly sunny, hot, and humid with scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Probability of precipitation is 30 percent”.

Now, let’s review that. I have learned that most people, and many weather forecasters don’t know the true definition of POP. I honestly don’t know the right answer myself. So, how in the world can people use that information if they don’t understand it.

BOTTOM LINE: On most summer days, there is actually about an 80 to 90 percent chance that showers and storms will form during the peak of the daytime heating process. BUT, the chance of any one neighborhood getting wet at any given time is only 30 percent, and that is why you see it in the forecast.

THE PROBLEM: To any one person at any one point, it is either raining, or it is not raining. So, in their eyes, to be correct the POP in a forecast really needs to be zero, or 100. If the forecast is perfect, and we have scattered showers and storms around, the person under one of those scattered storms thinks we are fools because we say there is only a “30 percent chance of rain” when it is pouring as they drive down the road. This is when they say “I am using my windshield wipers to get that 30 percent off my windshield”. They have no idea it isn’t raining in most other places. POPs only get forecasters in trouble.

SO… Just understand the weather just doesn’t change much on a daily basis June through August. It will be hot and humid, and it will rain somewhere just about every afternoon. Just understand we don’t know when and where, and nobody can tell you until they begin to show up on radar during the early afternoon hours.

CAN’T REMEMBER IT BEING THIS HOT? Almost every year, I hear from people that tell me “I can never remember the weather being this strange”. And, understand I have been doing this for 32 years. The truth is that our weather is “strange” every year. Averages are just that; averages.

For those of you that say you can’t remember it being this hot in June during your lifetime, I say you have a short memory. The decades of the 30s and 50s were brutally hot in Alabama; our hottest June temperature on record is 106 degrees, set on June 29, 1931 (based on data for Birmingham). Our hottest temperature on record is 107, set on July 29, 1930.

Don’t forget, we are coming off a few very mild summers, so we were due for one. Alabama is a low latitude state that is stuck in mT air (maritime tropical), with lots of sunshine and winds aloft that are light and variable as the mid-latitude westerlies hang around well to the north of here. It is supposed to be hot around here. Always has, and always will.

ONE THING can break up the monotonous summer weather, and that is a tropical storm or hurricane. The big ones usually come in August and September, and it does indeed seem that all parameters are in place this season for a bunch of them. Even a tropical depression can be quite a heat buster with flooding potential. So, look to the south for big changes, and not to the north. Alabama is a cold front graveyard this time of the year; while you can get an intrusion of dry, continental air in summer, is just doesn’t happen very often.

THINGS TO WATCH: I recommend you pay attention to the various parameters on our seven day forecast during the long, hot, summer. Sure, the words won’t change much. You know… “hot and humid with scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms”. But watch for the parameters like “percentage of available sunshine”, “hours of rain”, and “rainfall potential”. That will give you a clue concerning our thinking about afternoon storm coverage and placement.

[Scar]

WHAT WE KNOW: The weather will be hot and humid just about every day June through August. And, it will rain during the afternoon on a daily basis.

WHAT WE DON’T KNOW: There is no way of knowing at 7:00 a.m. where the showers and storms will form on a summer afternoon at 3:00 p.m. in most cases. There is no real skill in forecasting placement and coverage of airmass thunderstorms that form on just about every summer afternoon in Alabama, and that can frustrate the pants off the best forecasters.I often wondered why FL even botherd with weather forecasts. Every day it's the same thing for the next 5 days.

But don't stop yours Chris, I always read your's in the weeks leading up to a trip. ;)

[Strmchsr]

I often wondered why FL even botherd with weather forecasts. Every day it's the same thing for the next 5 days.

But don't stop yours Chris, I always read your's in the weeks leading up to a trip. ;)

Thanks, Jeff. Though, Honestly, I could just put "highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s, 40% chance of an afternoon thunderstorm" starting in June and, unless a tropical storm comes along, not change it again until September and I'd be right 98% of the time. :D