WDW Weather Forecast - April 30-May 16, 2010

[Strmchsr]

Each day in April, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Friday pm, April 30, 2010
The high today should peg out around 82. There's some storms firing up today, but it looks like they'll stay north of Orlando. Tomorrow we'll see more of a warm up with the humidity really kicking in as a southerly flow returns. Highs tomorrow through Tuesday should stay 88-90 with lows 65-67. With the moisture and warmer temps I can't rule out a pop up afternoon thunderstorm, but no major rain event will occur. While I have 90 as the max for Monday, I have to note the GFS 12z run has a 594 contour sitting right over Orlando on Monday, which could mean 91-93. Right now I still think 90 max, but it's going to be warm either way. Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning some showers and thunderstorms are possible. On the 6z run several of the models had a fairly significant rain on Wednesday, but they all backed off to just scattered showers on the 12z. The heat should back off to 82-84 for Wednesday through Friday, but afternoon thunderstorms will be possible each day.

Long range...May 8-16 nothing really changes. Highs should be mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s and a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm popping up pretty much every day. This won't be a "you can count on it" situation like in the summer, but there will be enough moisture with the sea breeze to leave a chance for rain every day.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
At 12:15 pm CDT, no active delays, but there's a good risk of severe storms across the Plains today, so that could change. For tomorrow, a severe weather risk exists for AL, TN, KY, southern OH & IN, IL, MO, KS, NE, OK, eastern TX, AR, LA, and MS.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[Gregandmel]

Happy Birthday!!! thanks for all you do for us! :thumbsup:

[BethieTink]

I really hope that voodooland is wrong. We arrive on the 24th with our best friends and their 2 little girls (Mom and the girls have never been). This weather would not be helpful.

[Gregandmel]

I really hope that voodooland is wrong. We arrive on the 24th with our best friends and their 2 little girls (Mom and the girls have never been). This weather would not be helpful.

I would like to second that. We will be there april 24th - May 1st with my parents (first timers) - with carriage ride reservations the 24th at 5:30pm. My heart is sinking that we may be encountering a lot of RAIN!:(

[Strmchsr]

My heart is sinking that we may be encountering a lot of RAIN!:(

No, not a lot of rain. It's looking like the pattern will be shifting to a more active one at the end of this month. However, rarely are these systems all day rainouts. I think it would be more like what the long range models show today...arriving during the evening of one day and tapering off the morning of the next. You won't be wet all day in the parks either day.

[BethieTink]

No, not a lot of rain. It's looking like the pattern will be shifting to a more active one at the end of this month. However, rarely are these systems all day rainouts. I think it would be more like what the long range models show today...arriving during the evening of one day and tapering off the morning of the next. You won't be wet all day in the parks either day.

I so hope you are right!!!:mickey:

[Suz36]

Is it typical for WDW to still be this "cool" in mid-April or are you experiencing a cooler than normal spring? Do you think the warm up will continue gradually, or did you think it'll be a big temperature swing when things do change? Just looking for your expert opinion! I'm starting to get excited that mid May won't be as hot as expected, but trying to keep myself in check!

[Strmchsr]

It's definitely a cooler than normal spring. I think there's at least a half-decent chance that will continue through early to mid-May. When the shift happens it'll probably be sudden, and this is especially true if Orlando doesn't get significant rain soon. Too early to tell about mid-May just yet, but the pattern continues to favor normal to slightly below normal temps.

[A&M'sMommy]

We're thinking of taking a quick four day trip, without kids, for our anniversary May 3 - 6, any thoughts on weather and crowds?

[Strmchsr]

We're thinking of taking a quick four day trip, without kids, for our anniversary May 3 - 6, any thoughts on weather and crowds?

Hopefully both will be great since we'll be there the same time. :mickey:

Crowds are looking to be moderate. Not too bad. It certainly looks to be a little lower than the same week last year.

Weather is much harder to say. I still think temps will be at or a little below normal, which would mean upper 70s or (more likely) low to mid 80s. I don't think we'll see the mid 90s of last year, either. Rain is very difficult to say at the moment. Things are beginning to look like a more active pattern will set up at the end of April, which could mean 1 or 2 rain chances during the first week of May. It will depend on how strong the ridge is by then and it'll be another 4-6 days before I begin to get an inkling on that one.

[Scar]

Chris,

Any thoughts on the humidity first week of May?

[Strmchsr]

Chris,

Any thoughts on the humidity first week of May?

Best guess right now is it won't be too bad. The main flow doesn't seem set up to pump a lot of moisture over Orlando so I think we'll be okay. We'll see for sure in another few days.

[Ksmith75]

Thanks for the info....We will be there from April 24 - May 4th. A little rain will be ok I guess, the past 3 years we were at WDW at the same time - I think we saw rain 2 times...can't complain.....I will still have fun regardless....

Thanks for the daily updates too....it's great!:mickey:

[Gregandmel]

I hope you are right about your updated forecast the week of April 24th - but this must be a really tricky system potentially hitting the area because I literally look at about 5 different sites and they all say something different! RAIN!!! NO Rain!!! RAIN!!! NO Rain!! Mild/Warm/Sunny/AGH!!!! LOL...But so far I like yours the best..... Thanks for keeping us updated - hoping for great weather for all you guys going the 1st week in May!!!!

[Strmchsr]

I hope you are right about your updated forecast the week of April 24th - but this must be a really tricky system potentially hitting the area because I literally look at about 5 different sites and they all say something different!

It really is pretty tricky. As I've mentioned before, all of the "fill in your zip code" sites use 1 model and are completely computerized. No human interaction. Some of them use the 06z model run, some the 12z, some the 00z and so on and because the system looks different on every model run you get differences among all the sites. Obviously, I'm looking at all the models and it's still confusing. I think it'll be a couple of more days before it starts to make sense.

[Tinkerfreak]

Just wanted to say a big Thank You for all the time you put into the forcasting. It must be very time consuming and I really appreciate it. I always check your forcast daily starting about a month before my trip. I will be there April 30th through May 6th so I will be checking in every day.
Again THANK YOU! :thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

I will be there April 30th through May 6th so I will be checking in every day. Again THANK YOU! :thumbsup:

My pleasure. I enjoy doing it (or I wouldn't put in the time). Maybe we'll see you down there since we arrive May 3. :mickey:

[sgdisney]

You know you are getting close when you can actually see weather forecasts for your trip! :mickey: Thanks for the updates Chris!

[eandrsmom]

:thanks:Thank you for posting these weather forecasts. We'll be driving in April 30/May 1. I'm hoping that things in your forecast don't change too much for the week of May 1-May 8. We're used to heat and humidity, but would really like to avoid a lot of rain. I'll keep checking back as we get closer. Thanks again!

[Strmchsr]

I'm hoping that things in your forecast don't change too much for the week of May 1-May 8.

Since my family will be there the same week we're hoping for the same thing. However, the meteorologist in me knows that Orlando actually needs some rain so I can't complain too much if we get a rainy day.

[javamama]

I love it I'm so happy with this weather for the 3-8th it looks great, thanks for the great work!

[SurferStitch]

We'll be there May 2-7, and the forecast has been degrading a little over the past week. Oh well, hopefully the rain will stay away. I've checked 4 different weather outlets (including here), and all 4 have pretty different forecasts. One is almost all rain, and one is no rain at all and much warmer temps.

Guess we'll see what it's really like when we get there. When we were there in December, the weather was really nothing like any of the forecasts that I studied, so I'll just be prepared for anything.....again. :thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

Oh well, hopefully the rain will stay away. I've checked 4 different weather outlets (including here), and all 4 have pretty different forecasts.

Keep in mind a couple of things: 1.) Those dates are still out in "voodooland." I'm very up front that any forecast beyond 7 days is worthless, and really anything beyond 5 days is a lot of guessing. 2.) If you're looking at the "fill in the zip code" sites they strictly use automated methods. That is, they have 1 model that runs and plugs in the numbers. No human interaction. So, ever model, especially that far out, will have different looks. With no human interaction those, honestly, are worthless more than 2-3 days out. If you want to look at multiple forecasts check out the National Weather Service and local TV stations as well as here as those outlets will have humans looking at multiple models (or should. I haven't been too impressed with Orlando TV weather guessers). You need to give it a few more days to get a clear idea of what will happen. Since we'll be there May 3-10 I'm just as interested in it as you are. :mickey:

[forever a child]

It's looking like the pattern will be shifting to a more active one at the end of this month.

We will be there from the 19th - 26th of May:(

[Strmchsr]

We will be there from the 19th - 26th of May:(

I was referring to the end of April. Too soon to know about the end of May.

[MinnieMommie]

I'll be checking every day now Chris. My daughter leaves soon and keeps asking me for your updates. I am wondering how many days out from her departure day she can plan (ie pack clothes) based on your forecast? :mickey:

[javamama]

Chris I love that we're going the same time this year! Not that your doing any different of a job any other time of the year, but I'm not even looking anywhere else but here for the weather this time, so thanks tons:thumbsup: And have a great trip, I'll be the one with the kids throwing tantrums because they didn't get something or one hit the other one:D

[Strmchsr]

I am wondering how many days out from her departure day she can plan (ie pack clothes) based on your forecast? :mickey:

In general I say 3-5 days. That's close enough to avoid any surprises. We're leaving next Sunday and DW is begging me to start packing, but I'm making her hang tight until Wednesday or Thursday. :D

[Strmchsr]

And have a great trip, I'll be the one with the kids throwing tantrums because they didn't get something or one hit the other one:D

I can identify with those kids. :D Hope you have a great trip, too! :mickey:

[DadTriton]

Looks like the GFS is predicting a front on Wed the 5th. Look like hot weather the two days before (92 and muggy) with a small chance of rain on the 5th and then some much cooler highs around 77 for the 6th-11th.

[Strmchsr]

Looks like the GFS is predicting a front on Wed the 5th. Look like hot weather the two days before (92 and muggy) with a small chance of rain on the 5th and then some much cooler highs around 77 for the 6th-11th.

The front is kind of iffy. The GFS showed it, yes, but not all of the models do. There's some model disagreement as to whether the ridge will break down as the GFS shows. I think, too, that the GFS is continuing to overdo it on the highs. It's been running about 5 degrees too high so I'm looking more for 87-89 for highs rather than the 92 the GFS is showing. I hope it's right on those cooler temps next week, though!

[sgdisney]

Chris, thanks so much for all the updates. I know you will be there next week, as will me and my DH. So my wish for you is a wonderful vacation for you and yours!

[Strmchsr]

Chris, thanks so much for all the updates. I know you will be there next week, as will me and my DH. So my wish for you is a wonderful vacation for you and yours!

Thanks, Sandy! Hope you guys have a wonderful vacation, too. :mickey: I'll still be updating throughout the week, so if you have internet access down there keep checking in.