WDW Weather Forecast February 28-March 16, 2010

[Strmchsr]

Each day in February, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Sunday pm, February 28, 2010
Between church and watching the USA/Canada hockey game I almost forgot today's update. It turned out to be a gorgeous day in Orlando with the high warming up to 63 as the sun came out a little earlier than expected. After a low of 38-40 tonight the high tomorrow will be 68-70. Tuesday looks wet, but with only scattered thunderstorms rather than numerous as it has appeared on earlier model runs. The high should be around 65. Wednesday will turn noticeably cooler. I could be wrong, but I think the models showing low 60s are 8-10 degrees too warm. I think Wednesday will be closer to 52-54 for a high with a low around 40. It will also be blustery so wind chill could be a factor. Thursday and Friday remain clear with highs around 60. It could go a couple of degrees either way. Lows will remain around 40. Saturday and Sunday will remain dry. Saturday should warm up to 68-70 and Sunday to 72-74 with lows around 50.

Long range...The good news looking out into voodooland is that it appears the storm track is starting to shift slightly north and the AO is ready to flip positive around mid-month which should mean drier, warmer temps going into the end of March. It's still voodoo so we'll have to wait and see. March 8 looks clear and in the low to mid 70s. March 9 looks quite stormy. March 10 clear out and drops back to around 60 for a high and 40 for a low. March 11-12 should be clear with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s. March 13-14 should be mid to upper 60s with lows approaching 50. March 15 looks very stormy with a significant severe weather outbreak across Florida. That's not a forecast. Just reporting consensus model data right now. March 16 clears out with a high in the low 70s.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
I don't foresee major travel problems for tomorrow. Northern TX, OK, NM could see some minor delays and the Philly to NYC to Boston area could also, potentially, see some minor delays, mostly due to wind, but it doesn't look too significant.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[DisneyorBust]

Thanks again Chris. DW and I leave tomorrow and our return flight is Friday afternoon, around 4:30 pm. I sure hope that the storms come thru earlier or later than our flight. Sure hope to avoid any turbulance on our flight north. :D

[Strmchsr]

Thanks again Chris. DW and I leave tomorrow and our return flight is Friday afternoon, around 4:30 pm. I sure hope that the storms come thru earlier or later than our flight. Sure hope to avoid any turbulance on our flight north. :D

Understandable. I would expect some turbulence but hopefully it won't be too bad. Read the link about turbulence above to hopefully help a little.

[tjewelcat]

Thanks for the post Chris. I will be checking back for the updates. 5 more days!!!! :mickey:

[DisneyorBust]

Thanks for the advice Chris. I fortunately, do ok with turbulance, DW not so much. A few prayers will get us through!
Thanks again for your expertise.

[A&M'sMommy]

Great! I'm flying in early Friday morning so that sounds okay for me!

[tjewelcat]

I am really wondering about that system that you mentioned around the 12. Is there any more updated info on that or has anything else changed a whole lot, weather wise?

[Strmchsr]

Well, last night's models were showing pretty much the same thing then the early (06z) run this morning has the system forming around Feb 14-15. That's why I call the time past 7 days voodooland. You really can't trust the models on anything beyond 7 days other than overall pattern. I'll do my full forecast around 11 when the 12z model run finishes and we'll see what shows up then.

[tjewelcat]

Chris.....Thanks SOOO MUCH!!!! I will check back later today then. We are so excited about WDW!!:party:

[Strmchsr]

Something you don't see too often...there's a winter storm warning out for tonight and tomorrow for the Florida panhandle. Here's the word from the NWS in Mobile, AL:


...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SLEET WILL MIX
WITH THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS
THE PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN INTENSITY...A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET...
AND SNOW IS LIKELY GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 BY MID EVENING...
WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT ROUGHLY NORTH OF
A WIGGINS...ATMORE...TO ANDALUSIA LINE. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE WET SNOW LINE
WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST ON FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.
LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
THAT MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS.

THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND HEAVY IN NATURE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

[Rekenna]

Hi Chris! I really hope your vodooland forecast changes! We are due in the World Feb 26 for a long weekend. We are really excited about ESPN the Weekend. It would be most excellent if a nice warm front would move in by then. Work on that for me-thanks!:thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

Hi Chris! I really hope your vodooland forecast changes! We are due in the World Feb 26 for a long weekend. We are really excited about ESPN the Weekend. It would be most excellent if a nice warm front would move in by then. Work on that for me-thanks!:thumbsup:

Oh, don't worry. The voodooland forecast changes daily, hence the name. As for a warm front...don't count on it. Things look fairly cool through early March, but hopefully it won't be too bad for you. I'll pass along your request to the Boss.

[BigRedDad]

Grrr... It doesn't look like this cold snap will vacate before our trip on March 6th-14th. The weather trend across the SE has been colder than normal and typically around 10-20 degrees cooler than normal in Lake Buena Vista.

At least we will be there. Too bad we may not be able to enjoy the pool.

[Strmchsr]

Hard to say right now. At the moment, yes, I'd expect cooler than normal, but not the extremes we've been seeing. My mid-March I'm thinking at or slightly below normal, not the 15ish degrees below that's been occurring.

[happy day]

Is this typical weather? It seems very cold for Florida?

[BigRedDad]

This cold is atypical for FL. However, it is not too uncommon. This weather pattern is across the Midwest and Southeast. Hopefully, it will break some time soon (hoping by March 6th :mickey:). I don't mind the cold, but I hope my DD will have a couple of chances to jump in the pool.

[Strmchsr]

Is this typical weather? It seems very cold for Florida?

It's not "typical" but it happens, especially during El Nino years. This year has has a perfect set up of factors that have caused all the snow across the country, but the main factor with the cold in Florida is that the Arctic Oscillation has been MUCH more negative than is normal, which is causing all the cold air to go rushing southward. And, looking at the projections this morning, it looks like it'll stay negative through early March, at least, which means we're not done with the cold air.

[Rekenna]

Okay Chris, it keeps looking better, keep it up for our ESPN the Weekend, Adults Only, I'm Sick of Winter trip! Feb26-Mar2.

Thanks for the great updates!:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Okay Chris, it keeps looking better, keep it up for our ESPN the Weekend, Adults Only, I'm Sick of Winter trip! Feb26-Mar2.

Thanks for the great updates!:mickey:

You're welcome. :thumbsup: Wish I could take credit for the good weather, but then I'd have to take the blame when it doesn't go right. :D

[BrerGnat]

So, Chris, what's your best GUESS about avg. high temps the last week of March?

[Goes4FastPass]

So, Mr. Chaser (or do you prefer "Stormy"?)

Can we hope to not freeze during our upcoming March 21-28 WDW stay?

I'm not sure I'm reading all this correctly or just optimistically but it looks like we'll be getting there just after the Country Bears come out of hibernation.

While you're at it, can you tell me why 51 degreesF sitting in the stands at Fantasmic feels like winter in Wisconsin?

Thanks!

[Strmchsr]

So, Mr. Chaser (or do you prefer "Stormy"?)

I'll answer to either one. Both as a pastor and when I've blown forecasts I've been called MUCH worse. But, Chris will do. :D


Can we hope to not freeze during our upcoming March 21-28 WDW stay?

Yes, I think so. Obviously it's too far out to know for sure but the pattern definitely seems to be shifting and I think we'll see highs much closer to normal (mid to upper 70s) by the time you get to that point.


While you're at it, can you tell me why 51 degreesF sitting in the stands at Fantasmic feels like winter in Wisconsin?

Yep. The same reason why being outside in WDW in July feels like you've been transported to the deepest depths of hell...humidity. You're sitting right on the water's edge in Fantasmic and all that moisture makes it "feel" much cooler than the actual air temperature would normally indicate. This is why World Showcase and DTD also tend to feel cooler in the evenings than other places.

[Strmchsr]

So, Chris, what's your best GUESS about avg. high temps the last week of March?

Mid to upper 70s, I think. The AO is looking like it will flip positive around mid-March so you should definitely start seeing things warm up towards the end of the month.

[BrerGnat]

Sounds encouraging! We just want our boys (and us!) to be able to swim at SAB and the water parks. This is the ONLY thing they are really interested in regarding WDW. ;)

[mouseketeer mom]

I want WARM for Eastertime! What do you think?? I'm getting worried!

[Strmchsr]

I want WARM for Eastertime! What do you think?? I'm getting worried!

Well, if by WARM you mean mid-80s, I don't think that's going to happen but mid to upper 70s isn't out of the question. Things should definitely begin to warm up by the end of the month.