WDW Weather Forecast - January 31-Feb 16, 2010

[Strmchsr]

Each day in January, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Sunday pm, January 31, 2010
We've got a very interesting and challenging forecast ahead this week. Today is staying mostly cloudy, which means the high will end up 58-60. Tomorrow will be 66-68 after a low of 42-44. An isolated shower isn't out of the question, but not too likely. Tuesday is the big question. There will be a low pressure system moving across Florida, but where it goes is still up in the air. Most of the models are taking the system north of Orlando, but it's still possible it comes a little further south. This will be one of those systems determined by 100 miles or less and that's impossible to forecast. We just don't have the tools to handle that kind of microscale details. So, I'm going to tell you to be prepared for thunderstorms on Tuesday, but it is also possible you'll stay completely dry. It's impossible to say for certainty one way or the other. My gut feeling is that WDW won't see much rain, but, again, be prepared just in case. Now, Wednesday through most of Friday will be sunny. 66-68 will be the high on Wednesday with a low 46-48. Thursday will be 73-75 and Friday will be 75-77 with lows around 50 both days. The next front will move in late on Friday. Again, timing is still a little iffy. My current thought is that the storms will move in during the evening and be gone by park opening on Saturday, but that's not 100%. Some of these storms could be severe so stay tuned to the conditions while you're in the park. Saturday's high should be 67-69 with a low 48-50. Sunday will be cooler with a high 58-60 and a low 38-40.

Long range...Total insanity out in voodooland, so ignore everything I'm about to write. :D Feb 8-9 will be clear with highs in the low to mid 50s and lows in the low 30s. The flow goes more zonal for Feb 10-12 so highs should warm into the mid 60s with lows in the low 40s. A powerful system moves in on Feb 13 with strong thunderstorms. Feb 14 clears out with a high in the mid 50s and a low in the mid 30s. Feb 15-16 warms into the mid to upper 60s as WDW will be in the warm sector of the roller coaster before the next big system arrives on Feb 17. They key here is not the exact dates. The only thing you need to concern yourself with is that the pattern looks very active with the potential for some cold snaps.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
No major delays at 12:40 pm CST. I don't foresee major issues tomorrow, but the potential exists along the TX coast as well as WA and OR.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[Alligirl]

Thanks strmchsr!!! I will be checking in as I am going to WDW (a surprise Christmas gift) the last weekend in Jan. I've never been at this time so your weather report will be helpful. Also my DH & DD are flying home to NY on Sun so your travel impact report is helpful too! Thanks!
~Allison

[GreenBeetle]

Well, I do appreciate the forecast of no rain for the next 7 days in Disney as we are heading down there tomorrow morning for our first stay at Kidani Village!! :joy: :woohoo:

And I suppose I should be thankful that 58 - 59 degrees is still about 30 degrees warmer than it's been here in Pennsylvania the last few weeks . . . but Holy Moly, what has happened to Florida?? :D

Trip Report and Dining Reviews when I get back! Happy New Year to All! :party:

[MushuGrl]

You know, Chris, I start REALLY getting excited about my trip when I noticed your weather reports are nearing my time there! Thanks for your hard work!

Tab

[Strmchsr]

but Holy Moly, what has happened to Florida?? :D

El Nino. Oh, and probably global warming, too. :D Have a great trip! :mickey:


You know, Chris, I start REALLY getting excited about my trip when I noticed your weather reports are nearing my time there! Thanks for your hard work! Tab

Tab, I know the feeling. Our arrival date is almost out of voodooland now and it always gets me excited. It's one of those special Intercot only milestones. I suppose since I've been doing the forecast for 3 1/2 years now it's becoming a tradition to look for your dates to appear. :D

[rt207]

We start the drive from PA on the 15th and plan to arrive in FL on the 17th. The voodooland forecast has me a little nervous for the drive. I'll be watching it obsessively for the next 2 weeks...

[Strmchsr]

We start the drive from PA on the 15th and plan to arrive in FL on the 17th. The voodooland forecast has me a little nervous for the drive. I'll be watching it obsessively for the next 2 weeks...

As far as driving it doesn't look like too big of a deal right now. The storm system looks far enough south to not be a major snow issue until more like the 19th or 20th. You may just have to deal with rain when you get there, but almost always expect at least 1 rainy day in January.

[Crow]

thanks for your work.
right now my trip is planned for the 25th. hope no snow here in Philadelphia or Allentown to mess that up

[dumbo_buddy]

Thanks strmchsr!!! I will be checking in as I am going to WDW (a surprise Christmas gift) the last weekend in Jan. I've never been at this time so your weather report will be helpful. Also my DH & DD are flying home to NY on Sun so your travel impact report is helpful too! Thanks!
~Allison

ditto! we're going down 1/24-1/31 and flying in and out of LGA.

thanks!

[Alligirl]

ditto! we're going down 1/24-1/31 and flying in and out of LGA.

thanks!

Hey we are also flying out of LGA and going from 1/29-2/2!! Have a great trip!!:thumbsup:

[fanofdisney]

Oh, I hope that storm system for the 18th breaks up:fingers: I really appreciate your hard work but it is making me very sad:( Our trip is planned for 16-23. We had a cold front come in on our last trip in Oct 2008. I think it was record lows! I sure hope that can't really happen twice:ill:

[Strmchsr]

Oh, I hope that storm system for the 18th breaks up:fingers: I really appreciate your hard work but it is making me very sad:(

Well, don't get too worked up just yet. Voodooland can and does change. However, just given the current pattern you need to be prepared for at least 1 day with rain. Not necessarily record lows, but in January in almost always rains every 3-4 days a little. Just grab a poncho and go, though. No need to let it stop you!:mickey:

[BiloxiMom]

Hi Chris, what's your best guess for the last wk. of Jan.? We're taking my older parents and they don't do really cold. Of course, I don't do hot. At. All. I know it's a long way off, but looking into the crystal ball, what do you see?

[Strmchsr]

Hi Chris, what's your best guess for the last wk. of Jan.? We're taking my older parents and they don't do really cold. Of course, I don't do hot. At. All. I know it's a long way off, but looking into the crystal ball, what do you see?

As you noted, it's impossible to say right now. However, the current pattern shows no signs of going anywhere through at least the 18th, though it moderates somewhat. If that holds through the end of the month expect highs at or below normal and a rain event every 3-4 days. How much below normal I can't say right now. There's a significant snow cover over the US and more to come, though, which means air coming south doesn't have much time to moderate. It won't be blisteringly cold, but highs in the 50s aren't out of the question. But, if the flow goes a little more zonal neither are highs in the upper 60s.

[BiloxiMom]

Thanks Chris. I'll keep watching your posts. I'm hoping for warmish weather.

[MushuGrl]

Let's all do our "stay away snow" dance - we're leaving the 20th out of Tennessee, heading down towards southern Mississippi.

[Strmchsr]

Let's all do our "stay away snow" dance - we're leaving the 20th out of Tennessee, heading down towards southern Mississippi.

Right now it looks fine, but we'll see how things look in a few days. The main storm track is staying mostly south of TN for the next 10 days or so.

[HJL413]

We fly out of Philadelphia on 1/20 for our Disney World trip. The current Philadelphia forecast is Buffalo for the next week followed by 10 days of Alaska

The real concern is the long range forecast for Disney World. We need to know how many bathing suits to bring

[fanofdisney]

Chris, are the rains in Jan like the rains in Oct? We have been in Oct when the rain came so hard and fast that even a poncho was useless, it was crazy.:crazy::rain:

[Strmchsr]

Chris, are the rains in Jan like the rains in Oct? We have been in Oct when the rain came so hard and fast that even a poncho was useless, it was crazy.:crazy::rain:

Usually not. Those rains in October are due to the tropical airmass over Florida. During January it's more of a continental airmass so you get "normal" rains. You can still get some heavy rain from a front moving through, but not like during the summer and early fall.

[hubbyofadisneyholic]

As long as the weather doesn't interfere with our flight down on the 10th or flight home on the 17th we can deal with a little rain.
It's better than the snow and single digit temps we are having here at home.

[disneykid@hrt]

What exactly do you mean by "big severe weather threat" Jan 16-18? Thunderstorms? Too severe to go to the parks?

Thanks for your reports! They are so helpful!

5 Days! :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

What exactly do you mean by "big severe weather threat" Jan 16-18? Thunderstorms? Too severe to go to the parks?

With a major severe weather threat this time of the year you're generally talking about 3-4 hours of thunderstorms. Rain may sometimes last longer, but the period where you really don't want to be out side is fairly short. So, it won't ruin your whole day at the parks, but there may be a period of time where you'll want to park it inside.

[tinksmom02]

Chris, I just want to thank you for your dedication in getting us the best weather reports available! :number1: Your hard work is definitely appreciated.

[Strmchsr]

Chris, I just want to thank you for your dedication in getting us the best weather reports available! :number1: Your hard work is definitely appreciated.

Thanks, Christi. I enjoy doing it. Since I'm no longer doing meteorology as a paying job (I'm a pastor) this gives me an outlet to combine 2 of my favorite things -weather and Disney. :mickey:

[dumbo_buddy]

we are flying down on the 24th with our 7 month old son. i'm getting nervous trying to figure out how to dress him. pretty much i'll just pack every piece of clothing i own of his!

i hope it doesn't snow up here when we fly down!

[Strmchsr]

we are flying down on the 24th with our 7 month old son. i'm getting nervous trying to figure out how to dress him. pretty much i'll just pack every piece of clothing i own of his

Just hang tight on packing. I know it's tempting to want to pack for a Disney vacation WAY in advance, but especially with the fees for baggage on airlines these days you don't want to pack a lot of unnecessary stuff. Wait until your vacation is within the 7 day "safe" forecast window then you should have a good idea of how to pack.

[dumbo_buddy]

Just hang tight on packing. I know it's tempting to want to pack for a Disney vacation WAY in advance, but especially with the fees for baggage on airlines these days you don't want to pack a lot of unnecessary stuff. Wait until your vacation is within the 7 day "safe" forecast window then you should have a good idea of how to pack.

but i can't wait that long!!! just kidding!! good advice. :mickey::thumbsup:

[MushuGrl]

I love your take on the snow - we're expecting ONE INCH tonight and I seriously could find NO bread at the grocery store today.

If ya'll don't hear from me again, the one inch of snow yeti got me.

[Strmchsr]

I love your take on the snow - we're expecting ONE INCH tonight and I seriously could find NO bread at the grocery store today.

Yep. Meteorologists in the south get a kickback from bread and milk companies every time we mention snow. I still don't know what makes everyone here run out and buy milk and bread when snow is mentioned but they do. As if we're going to be snowed in for 2 weeks or something. It's really hilarious.

[BMan62]

Yep. Meteorologists in the south get a kickback from bread and milk companies every time we mention snow. I still don't know what makes everyone here run out and buy milk and bread when snow is mentioned but they do. As if we're going to be snowed in for 2 weeks or something. It's really hilarious.

Not just in the south, Chris.....Here in south central PA, any time there is a hint of snow, the stores have runs on bread and milk....You would think that people were expecting to be snowed in for days, or even weeks!!! :D

Of course, that makes it bad on the roadways, with everybody heading out to the stores at the first sign of a flurry.....

[Janmac]

Chris what days are you going to WDW? Will we still be able to get our weather fixes here at Intercot?!?!? (We'll be at WDW the last week of January)

Btw, we got 5" of snow overnight here in mid-Missouri. Melted core produced only 0.04" of liquid. VERY light and fluffy. :D

Thanks for your weather info.

Jan

[Crow]

Not just in the south, Chris.....Here in south central PA, any time there is a hint of snow, the stores have runs on bread and milk....You would think that people were expecting to be snowed in for days, or even weeks!!! :D

Of course, that makes it bad on the roadways, with everybody heading out to the stores at the first sign of a flurry.....

yep i see that here in PA, esp since i work in one.
Have a great trip. Look forward to the weather for my trip on the 25th

[Strmchsr]

Chris what days are you going to WDW? Will we still be able to get our weather fixes here at Intercot?!?!? (We'll be at WDW the last week of January)

Jan, I'm in Disney from this Saturday (Jan 9) through the 15th. I'll get an update in on Friday and Saturday. After that not as sure. It'll depend on my schedule. I'm not down just for fun. I'm teaching at a creativity conference for church leaders so I'll be tied up, but, at the minimum, I'll update every other day next week. No worries, I'll have you covered! :mickey:

[tadcd]

Chris,
Thank you so much for the information. This is the most important thread, I've been watching it like a hawk! :mickey: We'll arrive late on the 16th for our one week holiday. :cloud9: Feeling nervous when I see pictures from Florida of ice, etc. feel so sad for the farmers. :( Wishing you a productive meeting!
Thanks again,
Teresa

[dumbo_buddy]

oh geez. major system coming on the 25th? we arrive on the 24th with a 7 month old.

what does that mean?:sick:

[BiloxiMom]

So do we, (arrive on the 24th, but not with a 7 month old.) What exactly do you mean by major system on the 25th? That doesn't sound good....

[MushuGrl]

At least it looks to be warmer. I don't mind the rain but I was hoping it wouldn't be, like, Alaska when it happened.

[Strmchsr]

So do we, (arrive on the 24th, but not with a 7 month old.) What exactly do you mean by major system on the 25th? That doesn't sound good....


oh geez. major system coming on the 25th? we arrive on the 24th with a 7 month old.

what does that mean?:sick:

Major system just means heavy rain/thunderstorms for a few hours. You'll definitely want to take a break during that time, but that's voodoo. We'll see if it still shows up today.

[dumbo_buddy]

Major system just means heavy rain/thunderstorms for a few hours. You'll definitely want to take a break during that time, but that's voodoo. We'll see if it still shows up today.

oh boy. well, rain never hurt anyone but trying to maneuver the stroller in the rain will probably stink!

thanks for the update :)

[BiloxiMom]

Chris, I'm looking forward to your updates over the next few weeks. I'm hoping for nice weather, since we're taking my parents. Are you having fun? Did you bring the boys? How are the crowds?

[Strmchsr]

Yeah, Renae and the boys got to come with me. They're going to play in the parks while I am teaching at the conference.

As for crowds...DTD was NUTS on Saturday. You could hardly breathe. But MK wasn't too bad Saturday night. The longest line I saw was Peter Pan at 30 min. Most things were in the 10ish min range. Probably the fact that it was below freezing all day dampened the crowds. Yesterday at Epcot was insane trying to get into the parking lot because of the marathon. NEVER try to drive to Epcot on Marathon day. However, the crowds in Epcot weren't bad while the marathon was going on. We road TT twice first thing in the morning then it went up over 60 min after noon. Overall, crowds weren't bad, though. I'll be interested to see how things are today now that the marathon is over.

[fanofdisney]

Chris, thank you so much for your reports and taking time out of your trip to keep us posted. You rock:thumbsup:

[MushuGrl]

Thanks Chris! Have a ball!

[Crow]

thanks for the reports. Ill keep an eye on the 25th as thats t night we fly in.
Enjoy your trip!

[Buttercup]

Hi Stormchaser - I hope you're having a great trip!

I'm going to ask you to look into your crystal ball a little further ahead for me. :thumbsup:
We're going to be in Florida from January 30 - February 12th and I haven't been able to start packing because I don't know what to expect this year in terms of weather.

You mentioned above that there might be another cold-snap at the end of the month. :drama: I hope not. But I'm wondering if you can make a guess as to whether or not I'm going to need more sweaters than t-shirts. :D

All I'm asking for is mid-60's to mid-70's (or higher) during the day. Do you think it'll be possible?
:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

All I'm asking for is mid-60's to mid-70's (or higher) during the day. Do you think it'll be possible?:mickey:

I think it's definitely possible, but it's equally possible you'll need jackets and gloves like we have the last few days. Wish I could tell you how to pack right now, but I'd say wait about a week and I'll have a much better idea of when/if WDW might get another cold snap.

[Buttercup]

Wow! Thanks for the quick reply! Alright... I'll hold off another week. My fingers are still crossed!:fingers: Thanks again!

[BiloxiMom]

Do you think the 25th will be a complete wash out? I hate it when we have rain on our first day in the parks? Can't you fix that for me!? :) I hope you're having a great time! Enjoy the time with your family. Thanks for taking the time to update all of us, even while you're on vacation.

[Strmchsr]

[QUOTE=BiloxiMom;2002903I hate it when we have rain on our first day in the parks? Can't you fix that for me!? :)[/QUOTE]

I'll be sure to send a memo to the Boss for you on that.

Here's the thing - rarely is any day a complete wash out. You might get 3-4 hours of heavy rain, but then it generally tapers off to light rain or nothing. That's not always the case, but probably in 90% of the situations this time of the year.

[MushuGrl]

Here's the thing - rarely is any day a complete wash out. You might get 3-4 hours of heavy rain, but then it generally tapers off to light rain or nothing.

SHOPPING TIME!

[Crow]

thanks again. let us know about your trip esp where you ate.
We arrive evening of 25th so maybe just DD for us. parks the next day.

[BigThunderFan]

Another cold snap = BAD

Talk to the big guy for us and see if he can push up some tropical breezes at least through the 30th. :thumbsup:

Enjoy the rest of your time down there!

[disneykid@hrt]

Thanks for slowing down that storm system. I don't think I could handle it being our last day and rain... Can you say depressing?! :thumbsup:

[Buttercup]

Come on.... no more cold snaps in late Jan. early Feb!!!
:fingers:

[BiloxiMom]

Thanks Chris for updating all of us even while you were "playing." I'm glad everyone there had a great time. I'm really, really glad the weather isn't going to be cold when we're there (1/24-1/30.) How did the crowds look the last few days? Thanks again for all the hard work!

[badkitty]

Thanks for the update. I love reading your posts even when I don't have a trip planned. I am glad to see the cold snap may not materialize. I hope that holds since we head down on the 25th!

[Strmchsr]

How did the crowds look the last few days?

I was glad to do the updates. I know, especially this time of the year, everyone is anxious about the weather for their trip so I didn't want ya'll to have to go more than a day or so without an update.

As for crowds...yesterday was packed at MK. Even Buzz Lightyear had a 30 min standby and the COP had long lines. Space Mtn was 70+ min, BTMRR was 45+ and so on. I guess due to the MLK weekend. Also, there must be a collegiate dance team competition this weekend because there were packs of them all in matching uniforms yesterday. Crowds all week (except Wednesday) were fairly high, but not too bad. Even though standby lines occasionally hit 30-40 min, fastpass was still usually walk-on or 5ish min. Yesterday was definitely the worst.

[BigThunderFan]

Well you must have some friends in high places to be able to change those highs from mid 50s to upper 70s for the last few days of the month. We appreciate all you do and I am officially a stalker of this post for the next week...:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Well you must have some friends in high places to be able to change those highs from mid 50s to upper 70s for the last few days of the month. We appreciate all you do and I am officially a stalker of this post for the next week...:mickey:

Being a pastor does have its advantages. :D

I'm still not completely sold we won't see a cold outbreak at some point end of Jan/first of Feb, but most of the models are pushing that outbreak more into early Feb. We'll just have to see if the pattern is correct.

[Crow]

so if u can hold the cold off until Feb 1st when i leave from DIsney that would b great, thanks!
glad you had a good trip. thanks for the updates

[rubato]

Thank you so much for your forecasts! I am going to be in WDW from the 19th through the 26th and couldn't ask for better weather. I appreciate you providing it for me!:thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

I appreciate you providing it for me!:thumbsup:

Wish I could take credit for it, but I'm just in public relations, not management. :mickey:

[dumbo_buddy]

thanks for the update! :number1:

6 days :mickey:

[Iluvpooh]

Chris, you are not allowed to predict rain or cold for our trip. You've been warned! :thumbsup:

[MushuGrl]

Leaving tomorrow! Thanks so much for your updates Chris!

(Like a good little Strmchsr fan, I've packed EVERYTHING.)

[Strmchsr]

Chris, you are not allowed to predict rain or cold for our trip. You've been warned! :thumbsup:

Ummm...I'll be sure to speak to the Boss about that. :D


Leaving tomorrow!

Have a wonderful trip!!! :mickey:

[MushuGrl]

Thank you! :cloud9:

Do got a quick question and I think you answered it before, but now that it's semi out of voodooland, does that rain coming in on the 25th look like an all-day event?

[Strmchsr]

Do got a quick question and I think you answered it before, but now that it's semi out of voodooland, does that rain coming in on the 25th look like an all-day event?

No, I don't think so. Maybe 2-3 hours worth. It looks more like a squall line situation where you get a little light rain, then a big round of thunderstorms, then a little more light rain and its over.

[MushuGrl]

Thank you! Be a good time for a nap!

[BigThunderFan]

No, I don't think so. Maybe 2-3 hours worth. It looks more like a squall line situation where you get a little light rain, then a big round of thunderstorms, then a little more light rain and its over.

Thanks Chris! Hopefully this is 2-3 hours between 1-4 :blush:

[DisneyorBust]

Thanks Chris! I really appreciate all of your time and effort in helping all of us plan for our upcoming trips. :thumbsup:
My DW and I will be returning to WDW in early February and will continue to follow your forecasts to help us pack accordingly.
Thanks again.

[Crow]

thanks again! we fly down Mon evening so hope for more of the 70 temps this week.

[tjstrike]

Chris, can you predict more around the mid 70's for early to mid Feb. ? I'll slip ya a $20 :thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

Chris, can you predict more around the mid 70's for early to mid Feb. ? I'll slip ya a $20 :thumbsup:

Oh, sure. Be glad to predict it. Can't guarantee it'll be right, though. :D

[Buttercup]

I'm just going to whine for a minute. :D
It is FREEZING up here in Canada right now - it's awful. I'm so disappointed it could be almost just as cold on February 7th! Yikes!
I'm going from January 30th (this Saturday!) until February 12th and it looks like we're going to get everything from 70's to 40's during those 2 weeks.
GAH!
I have to stop reading these weather reports religiously and just enjoy my vacation!
I know I'll still have a great time at WDW regardless of the weather. But we're bringing some first-timers down there and I'm taking on all kinds of ridiculous stress that they're not going to think it's as awesome as I do. :mickey: I just wanted it to be great for their first time and if we have to walk around in our winter coats, it might take some of the 'awesomeness' out of their reactions.

Okay my rant is over. But for the record, I hope Stormchaser's prediction is absolutely wrong! (Not likely - he's usually bang-on with his forecasts! But a girl can dream...) :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

I just wanted it to be great for their first time and if we have to walk around in our winter coats, it might take some of the 'awesomeness' out of their reactions

Well, I can vouch that I was in WDW with the temp at 31 degrees and snow falling a couple of weeks ago. My 4 yr old was bundled up like the kid on Christmas Story, but we still enjoyed all the awesomeness so it can be done.

As for me being wrong, it's possible. That is still in voodooland and I'm the first to say that beyond 7 days I'm not really forecasting. Just reporting model data. The problem this year is we have an El Nino sitation going on (and it's still strengthening) which leads to these kinds of situations. I'll hope it's not too cool for you, though.

[Buttercup]

Hey Stormchaser!
I hope I don't jinx anything by saying this, but I'm thinking the tables are starting to turn in my favor!
The 10-day forecast on Weather.com seems to be showing highs of 70+ all the way through until February 7th.
Do you think that cold-snap might be pushed off again?

[SFD998]

Hello Strmcshr,

You wrote "but then a strong system comes with a trough on Feb 14 that will unleash some strong storms and possibly much cooler air." I know it is really long range, but is that system also anticipated to impact the Daytona Beach area? The cold I can handle ( its about 15 degrees at my house right now not counting the wind), but the rain will ruin the race. Any info would be greatly appreciated.

[Strmchsr]

I know it is really long range, but is that system also anticipated to impact the Daytona Beach area?

If this system plays out as the models are showing this afternoon, yeah, it would impact Daytona. It'll cover basically all of Florida. As you noted, though, it's way out there and both the intensity and the timing of the system are likely to change by the time we get to a legitimate forecast period.

[Strmchsr]

The 10-day forecast on Weather.com seems to be showing highs of 70+ all the way through until February 7th.
Do you think that cold-snap might be pushed off again?

I have absolutely no faith in anything on the weather.com "fill in your zip code" forecast, but it does appear that any significant cold air push will hold off until mid-month. There's a couple of opportunities between now and then for a trough to develop, but the pattern doesn't favor that until around Feb 9-10.

[Buttercup]

I have absolutely no faith in anything on the weather.com "fill in your zip code" forecast, but it does appear that any significant cold air push will hold off until mid-month. There's a couple of opportunities between now and then for a trough to develop, but the pattern doesn't favor that until around Feb 9-10.
YIPPEEE! You know what? Remember last month when I asked you for 60's-70's for my trip? You came through for me! :thumbsup: Thank the big boss for me! :D
We leave tomorrow!!!

[Strmchsr]

YIPPEEE! You know what? Remember last month when I asked you for 60's-70's for my trip? You came through for me! :thumbsup: Thank the big boss for me! :D
We leave tomorrow!!!

Glad to oblige. Wish I could take credit. :D Hope you have a wonderful trip.

[A&M'sMommy]

I'm going the 5th - 12th and weatherchannel.com shows rain for 5-7 so far....BOO!! Accuweather I think though shows something different. Please pray for decent weather for me!!!

[Strmchsr]

I'm going the 5th - 12th and weatherchannel.com shows rain for 5-7 so far....BOO!! Accuweather I think though shows something different. Please pray for decent weather for me!!!

Keep in mind that both of those websites (along with all the "fill in your zip code" sites) have no human interaction whatsoever on those forecasts (can you tell I'm not a big fan of sites? They aren't real forecasts). They are computer generated based on 1 model so they are notoriously fickle and inaccurate more than 1 or 2 days out. They also use different models to get their statistics, which is why they show something different. Those are okay for knowing what's going to happen tomorrow or the next day but they are fairly useless beyond that. Can't promise it won't rain Feb 5-7, but I can say that I don't foresee that happening right now. In general with this pattern you can count on rain every 3-4 days (I know we all want perfect weather on our vacations, but Orlando REALLY needs rain right now) but when it does rain it's rarely more than 3-4 hours so it won't ruin your entire day. Plus, it's extremely rare to have multiple rainy days. Not saying it doesn't happen, just not often, so don't worry too much. :mickey:

[DisneyorBust]

Thanks Chris! I'm waiting till Monday to finalize my choice of clothes for our trip. (arriving Tuesday afternoon) Hopefully, the warmth and sunshine will be upon us!
And please extend a Happy Birthday! :party: to your wife!

[A&M'sMommy]

Keep in mind that both of those websites (along with all the "fill in your zip code" sites) have no human interaction whatsoever on those forecasts (can you tell I'm not a big fan of sites? They aren't real forecasts). They are computer generated based on 1 model so they are notoriously fickle and inaccurate more than 1 or 2 days out. They also use different models to get their statistics, which is why they show something different. Those are okay for knowing what's going to happen tomorrow or the next day but they are fairly useless beyond that. Can't promise it won't rain Feb 5-7, but I can say that I don't foresee that happening right now. In general with this pattern you can count on rain every 3-4 days (I know we all want perfect weather on our vacations, but Orlando REALLY needs rain right now) but when it does rain it's rarely more than 3-4 hours so it won't ruin your entire day. Plus, it's extremely rare to have multiple rainy days. Not saying it doesn't happen, just not often, so don't worry too much. :mickey:

Thanks! It's already changed so I'm going to stop checking. The one day I'm hoping for perfection is the 7th, it's my hubby's 40th birthday and the reason for our trip, not that we really need one! I'm just hoping for a perfect day for him, the rest we can work with! :)

[tjewelcat]

Chris,
I have been reading your weather posts (I am in Prattville BTW) and I was wondering if there are any updates for Feb 7-13. I am trying to plan my days and perhaps plan around any rain days. Thanks for your help.

[Strmchsr]

Chris,
I have been reading your weather posts (I am in Prattville BTW) and I was wondering if there are any updates for Feb 7-13. I am trying to plan my days and perhaps plan around any rain days. Thanks for your help.

Well, it's always good to hear from someone so close! Feel free to drop by my church in Millbrook (Robinson Springs UMC) for a personal update any time. :thumbsup:

As for updates...most of that time frame looks clear but it still looks like a fairly potent storm system in the Feb 12-13 time frame. Beyond 7 days is worthless on exact timing, so I would say wait a few more days before finalizing plans. Yesterday most of the models showed Feb 13 as the day, but today most are leaning towards Feb 12. That may change by the time I do the full update this afternoon. The "voodooland" models just aren't that reliable.