WDW Weather Forecast - November 29-Dec 15, 2009

[Strmchsr]

Each day in November, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Monday pm, November 30, 2009
Another gorgeous day in WDW with a high 77. I should remind all of you, due to the southern latitude, 76 in WDW is going to feel a good bit warmer than 76 in, say, Boston. Keep that in mind when packing. Also, though, do to the proximity to all the water, 50 will feel cooler around WDW than maybe back home. That's why it's good to have options. For tomorrow, another nice day with a high, once again, 76-78 and a very slim chance of an isolated shower in the afternoon. A potent low pressure system that will develop off Brownsville, Texas by Tuesday morning and move to the Louisiana coast by Tuesday night. The low will probably track right up I-59, exiting into Georgia Wednesday night. The models have firmed up considerably on the WDW situation this afternoon. Looks like Wednesday will stay dry with a high 80-82. Thursday morning thunderstorms will move through in the form of a squall line. Looks like 3-4 hours total of rain on Thursday for WDW, but the heaviest stuff will last an hour or less. The exact timing will still take another 24-36 hours to firm up, but I'd guess the heaviest rain will be in the 10 am - noon timeframe on Thursday. That could definitely change, though. Once the front passes on Thursday temps will drop a little and the wind will be a bit gusty. I'm looking for a high around 70, but temps could fall into the low 50s by early evening. Alright, now here's the huge kink. Friday and Saturday are still big question marks. Some of the other models have now come on board with the idea that the front will back up slowly on Friday, meaning scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday. The high should still be 63-65. I don't think this will be a big, all day rain on Friday. Saturday, however, is a different story. A low develops in the Gulf Friday night and moves across Florida making Saturday extremely wet and stormy with a high 67-69. Ya'll, I'm still not convinced that this is the correct solution, but more indicators are pointing that way. Sorry this popped up so late, but until this morning there was no sign of this low for the weekend. Everything looked sunny and perfect. We'll see what it looks like in the morning. Sunday and Monday then look clear on all models with highs warming to 74-76 and lows around 60.

Long range...The GFS suggests the polar jet will retreat north by mid-month, which would mean warmer, drier conditions, but the weather looks very changeable through December, just what you expect this time of the year. As boring as forecasting WDW is for June-August, December and January are just as much a huge headache. Dec 8-9 look clear with highs in the upper 70s to 80 and lows in the low 60s. Dec 10 brings the next big storm system and the models are being fairly consistent on this one being pretty wet and stormy. Dec 11-13 will be warm with highs 80-82 and lows 62-64 before a front brings thunderstorms for Dec 14. Though this is voodooland and exact timing can't be taken seriously right now, this pattern is about what to expect: 2-4 days of dry, pleasant weather followed by 1 stormy day. Dec 15-16 should then be cooler with highs in the upper 60s and lows in the mid 40s.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
At 11:20 am CST only Newark is dealing with any notable delays. For tomorrow, Newark/NYC to Boston could see delays and there also could be some along east TX and LA.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[Lakin]

Thanks! I'll keep an eye on this thread often, for my family's trip is on the 24th. I hope for warm weather.

[SurferStitch]

I'll start to closely watch these forecasts as we get closer to our trip. We're arriving on 12/2, staying until 12/13.

I know this is well beyond even voodoo land, but does December look to be above, below or right around average as far as temperature? We've had gorgeous weather in 2006 and 2007, and hoping for a repeat. Temps (for the most part) were in the upper 70's to low 80's on most days, with a couple cold days thrown in there. We had pretty much NO rain for both trips.

Here's hoping!!!:fingers:

[scootch713]

Thanks so much for the updates. I am to fly into Orlando on the 11th for a cruise on the 12th.... my dear motherinlaw, may she rest in peace is named Ida.... praying she helps push Ida away.

[DisneyBarb]

We are arriving on the 13th.. so I hope it moves fast..However the last time we went 2 years ago, a similiar thing happened. It got out of FlA in time but came to New England (as a T.S.) and we got our flight out in the nick of time.. (flew through it which was like a Disney ride!)Keep our fingers cross that its minimal impact on everyone!

Thanks for the info...

[Strmchsr]

I know this is well beyond even voodoo land, but does December look to be above, below or right around average as far as temperature?

Hard to say right now, but the overall pattern is looking like temps at, or maybe very slightly above, normal with rainfall chances slightly above normal. For an 11 day trip in December temps can vary widely, but I would expect 1-2 days of rain over the course of the entire thing.

[Melliesmom]

We'll be down ther 11/18-26 and I truly like your forecast better than Accuweather!'s They are showing 60's and into the 40's! Brrrrrrrrr

[Strmchsr]

We'll be down ther 11/18-26 and I truly like your forecast better than Accuweather!'s They are showing 60's and into the 40's! Brrrrrrrrr

Accuweather, like Weather.com, is one of the automated sites (1 model, no human interaction) so check back this afternoon and they'll probably show highs in the 80s. There is a possibility of cooler weather out on those dates. That's still "voodooland" and the models are changing constantly but there's enough cold air out there that if a trough develops 60s aren't out of the question. I'll keep you updated.

[Melliesmom]

Thank you for the info! I'll be checking every hour on the hour! :thumbsup:

[scootch713]

How about flying into MCO on the evening of the 11th???? tks

[Strmchsr]

How about flying into MCO on the evening of the 11th???? tks

Very tough call right now. It all depends on the exact timing of the storm. Probably be Sunday or Monday before we know that. Right now, I'd say I think that would be fine, but if the storm slows, or comes farther north there could be delays.

[DisneyBarb]

A friend in Naples FL said their forecasters are saying a that a high pressure over Florida is going to move IDA more towards Texas... is this old info?

Thank you for all of this info, its nice to have the interaction...

[Strmchsr]

A friend in Naples FL said their forecasters are saying a that a high pressure over Florida is going to move IDA more towards Texas... is this old info?

No, that's one theory. And it is a possibility, but I haven't bought it yet. The NOGAPS (which is a pretty reliable model) and the NGFDL models both take that course of action, but most of the reliable models are still taking a right turn on this storm. Yesterday several of the models were trending more west, but it now looks like enough of a weakness will develop in the ridge to allow the storm to come on east. The key factor will be what this storm does in the next 24-36 hours. If it gets over water enough to really strengthen again, just barely brushing the tip of the Yucatan (as the GFS, UKMET, etc suggest) I think it comes towards Florida. However, if the Yucatan really weakens it (as the NOGAPS suggests) then it shouldn't have enough time to strengthen before the high pushes it west. There's just a ton of variables right now. So, my best guess is it comes east, but I'm openly admitting that it could end up getting pushed away. Too early to tell. Thanks for the question!

[DisneyBarb]

looking better and better all the time for our 6 nights... Thanks!

[bouncer]

We are flying into JAX Wed 11th 3pm and driving toward Savannah. Do you think we could run into delays or cancellations? TIA

[Strmchsr]

We are flying into JAX Wed 11th 3pm and driving toward Savannah. Do you think we could run into delays or cancellations? TIA

Delays are definitely possible, but I wouldn't expect cancellations.

[Melliesmom]

Nov 18th through the 26th is lookin' pretty good! Is this something I can go with? :woohoo::joy:

[Strmchsr]

Nov 18th through the 26th is lookin' pretty good! Is this something I can go with? :woohoo::joy:

Give it 2 or 3 more days before deciding for sure. Models are starting to see decent consistency, so it's looking good for you, but I never like to say anything is a "forecast" beyond 7 days.

[jnfr2424]

Nov 25-28 then looks dry with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s. Nov 29 warms into the upper 70s with a low back near 60.


I know its "voodooland" but I am loving the future forecast! Strmchsr as always you are the best!:thumbsup:

[SurferStitch]

Boy, I hope your early December prediction is wrong. It went from slightly above normal temps and a day or two of rain possible to below normal temps and rain every few days.

My DH and I really needed this vacation badly, and I hope we aren't disappointed with rain and cold temps. WDW or not, we will be a little upset with that kind of weather.

Here's hoping, for the first time, you're wrong. :thumbsup:

[Carolanne]

Thanks Strmchsr! This time tomorrow, DH & I will already be "home"! We leave for the World 11/15 and come back to reality 11/20.

[Strmchsr]

Here's hoping, for the first time, you're wrong. :thumbsup:

I wouldn't mind being wrong at all. And since it's voodooland right now there's a good chance I could be. Just hang in there and we'll see how the patterns shape up over the next few days. :thumbsup:

[Lucyrella]

Okay Chris, I am watching your posts daily now, and looking for a perfectly perfect in every way vacation on Nov. 28th to Dec. 5th.

Keeping my fingers crossed that the weather is going to cooperate :)

Carol Ann

[Dallas_Lady]

Your forecasts are great! I'm looking forward to a nice Thanksgiving weeK :mickey:

[mousetrapper]

Fingers crossed this Saturday and Sunday end up more dry than wet! Especially since Sunday is our Fantasmic! night...

We leave tomorrow 11/19!! :cloud9:

[Strmchsr]

Fingers crossed this Saturday and Sunday end up more dry than wet! Especially since Sunday is our Fantasmic! night...

We leave tomorrow 11/19!! :cloud9:

I'll do the full update around 11:30 this morning when I have all the models in, but at least giving a quick glance it still looks like there could be scattered showers, but some of the reliable models are taking the low further north now which would mean rain shouldn't be too big of a big deal and right now it looks like the rain chances should be over by Sunday night. Have a great trip!!! :mickey:

[SurferStitch]

Wow. I hate voodoo land. Looks terrible.

Usually by now I know what I'm going to pack for our December trips. I have no idea what I'm going to pack yet. I hate that.

Ugh.

[Strmchsr]

Usually by now I know what I'm going to pack for our December trips. I have no idea what I'm going to pack yet. I hate that.

I know. The models are having lots of consistency issues right now and that often happens during an El Nino year. Hopefully it'll start to make sense soon. Sorry for the trouble!

[SurferStitch]

Eh, no trouble....

It just means I'll be more prepared than if I didn't have your forecasts. Yours have been a huge help over our past few trips. Much more accurate than the local weather down there.

But, like I said before....I hope you're wrong, and I mean that in the nicest way...honest! :thumbsup:

But, hey...mid-upper 60's and upper 40's with hopefully little to no rain... I can definitely handle that! That's some nice December weather in my book.

[Lucyrella]

I like that report, we head out on Thanksgiving day and start for home on the 5th, Thanks Chris, you ROCK!:thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

I like that report, we head out on Thanksgiving day and start for home on the 5th, Thanks Chris, you ROCK!:thumbsup:

Hope you have a great trip Carol Ann!! :mickey:

[sndral]

Chris, last year for our Sept. trip I followed your posts like a hawk - worries over hurricanes & all. Sure enough our connecting airport was shut down for the flight home, forget the name of the hurricane that caused the shut down - what a hassle, I think we ended up going MCO-NY-Las Vegas-San Jose.
This year we are beyond hurricane worries 11/29 - 12/6, so I just checked your thread for a clue about what to pack. BTW, any issues w/ our connection thru Phoenix, or anything big due to hit the west coast 11/29?

[Strmchsr]

BTW, any issues w/ our connection thru Phoenix, or anything big due to hit the west coast 11/29?

Glad to help! The West Coast looks pretty good for Sunday. Could be windy and with some light showers in Phoenix on Sunday, but nothing that looks like it should cause flight delays. The only problem I might foresee would be east Texas. If you're flying straight from PHX to MCO shouldn't be a big deal, but expect a bit of a bumpy ride.

[sndral]

Cool! thx. Chris. Yep, me, Monterey CA to Phoenix then straight to Orlando. Son, Ontario CA to Phoenix then straight to Orlando.

[Bethis26fan]

You can blame me for the rain on Dec 1st. We are going to Epcot that day & I have yet to be to epcot when it hasn't rained. So just blame me for that on :blush:

[dizneegirl71]

We'll be at EPCOT in the rain with you!:mickey:

[SurferStitch]

I'm so glad to see the forecast getting better as we get closer to our trip! Hopefully it keeps going that way! We'll see!

We are arriving on the 1st.

[princessgirls]

Whooohoooo! Weather is looking up!

November has actually been pretty pleasant in the Northeast (New Jersey), the warm 75 degree sun will feel heavenly!

Julie:mickey:

[Lucyrella]

Okay not perfectly perfect in everyway as Mary Poppins would say, but better than I was thinking for the week of the 28th to the 5th.

Thanks Chris for all you do, and have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Carol Ann

Leaving tomorrow at 6am from Evansville!:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Leaving tomorrow at 6am from Evansville!:mickey:

Happy Thanksgiving to you, too! And have a safe trip. Check back today around noon for the final forecast before you leave.

[SurferStitch]

Forecast looks pretty darn nice! I was able to eliminate some of the colder weather clothing I was going to pack!

We leave around 5:00 am tomorrow morning!! Yay!!! :thumbsup:

[princessgirls]

Forecast looks good for now for my trip of 12/4-9.

Thought I would be packing mostly "warmer" (long sleeve light weight shirts and pants) items, but now I'm thinking we could go with shorts for the daytime.
Still bringing the kids lightweight jackets, and gloves for the evening, hopefully we won't have to use them.
I'm getting sooo excited!
Julie:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

We leave around 5:00 am tomorrow morning!! Yay!!! :thumbsup:

Have a wonderful trip!!! Keep a sweatshirt or light jacket for the evening, especially for the end of the week, but otherwise it looks like you'll be fine.


Still bringing the kids lightweight jackets, and gloves for the evening, hopefully we won't have to use them.

Shorts might be a bit much unless you intend to go back to the room to change. While it'll be plenty comfortable during the afternoon, mornings and evenings will probably be a little too chilly for shorts. Don't think you'll need gloves, though. Light jacket is a definite yes.

[2MuchWDFun]

Thanks StormChaser...I love your reports. We'll be in the World on December 18th; so I'll keep a watch out for our weather report as we get closer.

[Mitzie]

AHH Chris your killing me here.:bang: We fly in early Sat. morning from Indy. Was hoping for some pool time at AKL that day. Also, was hoping for some pool time at CRB on the 10th! Well at least right now the park days look good....