WDW Weather Forecast - October 31-Nov 16, 2009

[Strmchsr]

Each day in October, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Saturday pm, October 31, 2009
:mpumpkin:
Happy Halloween everyone! :mpumpkin::ghost:

The high today should hit 86, so short of record heat, with a very pleasant evening for the MNSSHP. Don't forget to set your clocks back an hour before going to sleep tonight. Tomorrow will be another dry day with a high 84-86. Monday will be a little cooler at 82-84. Tuesday a second front pushes through. Certainly there will be some scattered showers about, but it doesn't look like a big rain event. The high will be 81-83. Wednesday through Saturday highs will be 79-81 with lows 61-63 and mostly dry conditions. A few clouds and maybe an isolated afternoon shower, but those don't look too likely.

Long range...Nov 8-10 highs will stay in the 80-82 range with lows in the low 60s. The models are being pretty consistent about developing a very sharp east coast trough around Nov 11. While there doesn't appear to be much of a rain event as the front passes, it looks like Nov 11-13 will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows in the mid 50s. Nov 14-16 highs go back to right around 80.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
At 1:30 pm CDT, low clouds continue to cause problems around Newark, JFK, and Philadelphia. For tomorrow, some delays remain possible in the general NYC area, but mostly everything looks good.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics :fan:
Nothing happening right now.

Click here (http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/faq/hurricane-policy/) to view Walt Disney World's Complete hurricane policy for 2009.

[Tinkermom]

Hurricane?!! :eek: Mike and I head out to WDW for our 20th anniversary trip on Oct 12th and fly back on Oct 16th. I will be checking back here regularly and hoping that this "hurricane" that the models are showing magically disappears!

[disneykid@hrt]

Irk! It's gonna rain the whole trip?!:down: If the hurricane goes away will the pre-rain as well?:rain:

8 days-Rain or Shine! :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Irk! It's gonna rain the whole trip?!:down: If the hurricane goes away will the pre-rain as well?:rain: 8 days-Rain or Shine! :mickey:

Daily rain is something you just have to expect at WDW June through October due to the sea breeze fronts that set up each afternoon. However, we're not talking about all day drenchers. It's a 30-60 min thunderstorm then the sun comes back, so nothing to worry about.

[Strmchsr]

Hurricane?!! :eek: Mike and I head out to WDW for our 20th anniversary trip on Oct 12th and fly back on Oct 16th. I will be checking back here regularly and hoping that this "hurricane" that the models are showing magically disappears!

Hey, Lisa. Don't panic. You guys shouldn't have anything to worry about. Hope you have a great 20th!!! :thumbsup::mickey:

[mudpuppysmom]

I'm liking the 14-20 forecast!! That is EXACTLY when we will be there, so don't change a thing!

[Strmchsr]

I'm liking the 14-20 forecast!! That is EXACTLY when we will be there, so don't change a thing!

Now you know I can't promise no changes to the voodooland forecast, but I've sent your approval to the Boss so that He is aware of it. :D

[Goes4FastPass]

Daily rain is something you just have to expect at WDW June through October due to the sea breeze fronts that set up each afternoon. However, we're not talking about all day drenchers. It's a 30-60 min thunderstorm then the sun comes back, so nothing to worry about.

This is very good news.

We who go to WDW "too often" know not to panic about a downpour because "then the sun comes back, so nothing to worry about."

Are you expecting Blizzard Beachin' weather through the 21st of October?

[Strmchsr]

Are you expecting Blizzard Beachin' weather through the 21st of October?

Pretty close to it. The models are hinting that first taste of cool air will come somewhere around that time, but exactly when is impossible to say right now. For the moment, it looks closer to Oct 23 or 24 but we'll see how the timing evolves over the next few days.

[Dsnygirl]

Chris, I am liking your forecasts, even though mine are in voodooland!! (Oct 22-Nov 1) I'm hoping for a few initial days of warmth, and some cooler days to follow -- sounds like that's just what you're thinking may happen! And I know how your record is, so I'm happy!! (But, I won't hold it against you if things change.... I know the Boss can mix things up at the last minute, so I won't complain... ;))

PS - When you say "cooler" days coming up, what's that equal to in Florida weather?? Up here, it's 50's and 60's... are we talking high 70's/low 80's as cooler, or low 70's heading into the 60's for highs? I know, no definites... I'll just take a guesstimate... :)

[Strmchsr]

PS - When you say "cooler" days coming up, what's that equal to in Florida weather?? Up here, it's 50's and 60's... are we talking high 70's/low 80's as cooler, or low 70's heading into the 60's for highs? I know, no definites... I'll just take a guesstimate... :)

I don't think 60s are going to be an issue, but low to mid 70s aren't out of the question. I think mid 70s highs are quite possible from the intensity of the trough towards the end of the month. Low to mid 50s for lows are also possible, so it could be a little cool first thing in the morning and evening. As you noted, though, it's just a guesstimate right now.

[eam]

Strmchsr, will you be doing forecasts for November? We will be staying November 11-22, and hoping, of course, for great weather. Although it will definitely be better than here. Thanks for all of your help, and info. I enjoy reading this thread. It is informative, fun and entertaining.

[Strmchsr]

Strmchsr, will you be doing forecasts for November? We will be staying November 11-22, and hoping, of course, for great weather. Although it will definitely be better than here. Thanks for all of your help, and info. I enjoy reading this thread. It is informative, fun and entertaining.

Definitely! I do these every day. I guess I've been doing them daily for a little over 3 years now. Look for your dates to start showing up towards the end of this month. The long range models are all 14-16 days so that's the length of my forecast period (though I openly say don't trust anything anyone says beyond 7 days). Thanks for your comments!

[nicster]

Hurricane?!! :eek: Mike and I head out to WDW for our 20th anniversary trip on Oct 12th and fly back on Oct 16th. I will be checking back here regularly and hoping that this "hurricane" that the models are showing magically disappears!


Irk! It's gonna rain the whole trip?!:down: If the hurricane goes away will the pre-rain as well?:rain:

8 days-Rain or Shine! :mickey:
DH & I were at the World during hurricane Charlie in 2004, so I will tell you our experience. The hurricane was on it's way before we even left California, so we knew it was a possibility. We were told when we checked in at CS that the parks were likely to shut down part way into the next day & we would be informed as to what time (hurricanes are generally slow, so they can anticipate the approx time they will 'land'). Each time there was an update the resort had a message on our phone. When we caught the bus the next morning to EPCOT we were the only ones on it, but there others there waiting for it to open. We walked on to every ride, and we took the bus back to the resort by 1p.m. (the time the last update msg told us the parks would close). When we got back to the room the newest msg was that we should all be in our rooms by 3p.m. (that was later updated to 5, the storm was moving slower & slower). The thing to know is; everyone at the resort was trying to get something to eat all at once! The line just to get into the food court was outrageous!! Fortunately, we had brought some cheese & crackers, along with some almonds & already had some bottles of water in our room. The resort gift shop was completely cleared of food items. We watched TV as the storm came thru, we never lost power and the way that the room we were in faced the inside of a court type area, we didn't have the noise that other guests talked about at the bus stop the next morning.
The next morning:
We had the world relatively to ourselves, we had to change our plans to go to AK, as they had evacuated many of the animals, though. Some of the restaurants did not open, due to the power having been out in their part of the park-therefore the food needing to be replaced. Also, the CBR was evacuated to CSR and other resorts because it is in a low area. Disney gave us a park-hopper pass that could be used any day in the next ten years. The airport was a mess, and we left 6 days after the storm passed. The planes were all still delayed, due to the terminals being so torn up. That's my story, I hope it helps with your concerns.

[threeh]

Come on stormchaser (who controls the weather??) give me nothing but sun for the first week of November.......:thumbsup:
Thanks for the turbulance site too!!

[Strmchsr]

Come on stormchaser (who controls the weather??) give me nothing but sun for the first week of November.......:thumbsup:

Sorry. I'm in public relations, not management. :D

[Running_Bell]

ugh... it appears we are arriving on the 24th, the same time as the cold front. Does this mean no swimming? shorts? Will we need jackets? This is disappointing and finding myself in a panic about possibly changing the week that we go... my husband will love the cooler temps.. but I find 80 to be cool.... so when you say "cold" front... what approximate temperatures do you expect... day/evening?

Thank you

:sob:

[Strmchsr]

ugh... it appears we are arriving on the 24th, the same time as the cold front. Does this mean no swimming? shorts? Will we need jackets? This is disappointing and finding myself in a panic about possibly changing the week that we go.... so when you say "cold" front... what approximate temperatures do you expect... day/evening?

Keep in mind 2 things - 1.) That's at the far end of voodooland so nothing is certain right now. and 2.) "cold" front is relative. For Florida that will probably mean highs in the mid 70s (low 70s at worst) with morning/evening temps dropping into the mid 50s. With heated pools that shouldn't be a problem for swimming at all, especially during the afternoon. Will you need jackets? Possibly something light early in the morning or evening. I would suggest having a sweatshirt or something you can take off because I don't think you'll need it long in the morning. You're more likely to need it in the evening. Now we just have to wait and see if this thing materializes.

[Jennifer_and_Chris]

We'll be heading down from Michigan on Oct 17th. Driving up to the Treehouse Villas on the 18th. We're still in for a hot one? FINE WITH ME! It's 50's and high, cold winds here and I'll take heat and humidity over this.

Love the info. I'll be watching this thread and your updates daily... ok, i'm a liar. I'll be watching like every 2-3 hours!

Mid 80's sound like heaven to me... especially when the evenings will be warm 70's for fireworks and MNSSHP!:thumbsup:

[Ransom]

I'd *like* the cold front to come through during our trip (we usually go in Dec), but we're there during the warmer period of this month. Oh, well! I guess everyone should experience Disney in 90+ weather with a heat index of 100+! I just never expected to do it in mid-October! :)

[Running_Bell]

Thank you... I will wait and see..... my DH would laugh at that thought. :mickey:

[Dsnygirl]

Chris, another question re: the cold front (actually, any big cold front hitting FL, really...) -- is a big cold front always precipitated by some serious rain moving through (no pun intended... :)) or can it arrive w/o a storm? Happens both ways up here, so just wondering if the front you're expecting to hit later this month will bring some serious rains with it, or maybe not... :blush:

[Strmchsr]

Chris, another question re: the cold front (actually, any big cold front hitting FL, really...) -- is a big cold front always precipitated by some serious rain moving through (no pun intended... :)) or can it arrive w/o a storm? Happens both ways up here, so just wondering if the front you're expecting to hit later this month will bring some serious rains with it, or maybe not... :blush:

Good question. And, yes, they can sometimes push through without much of a rain event. It depends how much moisture is available when the front pushes through. I've seen several fronts push through Orlando with little to no rain. Right now the majority of the models are showing the Gulf wide open and plenty of moisture available for this front later this month, which would means a good rain event. However, keep in mind that the normal pattern for Florida means an intense squall line that lasts less than an hour followed by 2-3 hours of gentler rain. We'll see if that "normal" pattern follows in this case. Meteorologically speaking this is still a long way off.

[Strmchsr]

Love the info. I'll be watching this thread and your updates daily... ok, i'm a liar. I'll be watching like every 2-3 hours!

Lol, well, in general I only update once a day unless someone has specific questions, but you can keep checking. :thumbsup:

[disneykid@hrt]

Thanks for talking to The Boss for us. Things are looking better for next week!:number1:

[Dsnygirl]

:mickey: Chris, my trip may still be in voodooland right now, but I'm liking what I'm seeing so far!! :mickey:

[mudpuppysmom]

Hey Chris == what happened to the "good word" you were putting in with the big guy.....I know it rains every day in Florida somewhere, but can't it rain in Miami this Friday and not Orlando!?!?!? haaaahhaaaaahaaaahaaaaa!!! I guess we'll be donning our ponchos and wading thru AK this Friday! It couldn't have been on Thursday when we are planning a waterpark day now could it?!?!? Oh well......we're going to be warmer than we are at home!

[Strmchsr]

Hey Chris == what happened to the "good word" you were putting in with the big guy.....

I sent the memo, but the Boss doesn't always follow my advice. ;) Don't worry too much, though, I don't think it'll be an all day rain. Timing is still a little iffy, but the current models are showing the rain hitting Orlando late in the afternoon so you should be good most of the day. In fact, it's possible it might not even hit until after AK closing. I know you'll have a good time no matter what, but here's hoping it holds off a little for you. :mickey:

[Jennifer_and_Chris]

Not as hot as we thought it was going to be... but, mid 70-80's next week sound great! We just may not be taking the kids to swim as much as we thought!

:thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

Not as hot as we thought it was going to be... but, mid 70-80's next week sound great! We just may not be taking the kids to swim as much as we thought!

Keep in mind that the pools are all heated, so it should be plenty comfortable enough to swim as long as you don't get too cold walking to and from the room.

[Jennifer_and_Chris]

Keep in mind that the pools are all heated, so it should be plenty comfortable enough to swim as long as you don't get too cold walking to and from the room.

Well, we're from Michigan... so, we'll be swimming no matter what! We went to WDW in January one year. It was one of those pretty cold nights for Florida... about 50... you could see the steam rising from the pool. There we were... 6 crazzies with winter coats over our bathing suits. But, we swam and we loved it. It was freezing running back to the villa. But, we weren't coming home without saying that we got to swim in January!:D

[Jennifer_and_Chris]

Keep the good news coming!! We are leaving in 3 days and will be arriving in the World in 4!!!

Weather sounds great! :cloud9:

[Dsnygirl]

Keep the good news coming!! We are leaving in 3 days and will be arriving in the World in 4!!!

Weather sounds great! :cloud9:


:ditto: :ditto: :ditto:

(although we still have a week to wait, and are still mostly in voodooland... ;))

[Dsnygirl]

Yikes... I've got to learn to keep my "yippees" to myself... the last two times I've cheered the forecast, the next forecast has had rain added to it!! :( This time, it's the "massive front" on the 27th... that'd be bad, bad, bad, as it's our MNSSHP night! :ghost: I'm going to just cross my fingers :fingers: and hope that the front changes... I'll take it any evening but that one!! (Of course, then it'd probably mess up somebody else's plans... sorry!! :blush:)

Here's to believing in the changeable power of voodooland.... :pixie:

[Strmchsr]

Here's to believing in the changeable power of voodooland.... :pixie:

That's the one thing you can always depend on with voodooland...it always changes.

[BiloxiMom]

Seriously???!!! I know it's voodooland.. but really?? We switched our trip from Jan. to Nov. thinking we would get away from those cold, rainy days and you're telling me the possibility is there that it will rain and turn cold? Seriously??! In Nov.?? We're there from 11/1--11/8. We can't win on the weather department! Make it go away, please!

[Strmchsr]

We can't win on the weather department! Make it go away, please!

Like I told some of the others...I'll be glad to send the Boss a memo for you, but no promises. Just don't shoot the messenger! :bolt:

Seriously, though, it is voodooland so don't panic too much just yet. That said, it is keeping in line with the general pattern I spoke about back in the summer, which is for a cooler/wetter fall (last week's aberration aside). Hopefully it won't be too bad for you and I promise to give you the best guess I can either way so you'll be prepared.

[Jennifer_and_Chris]

Thank you for the great report. We'll be leaving in less than 10 hours for our 2 day road trip to the World.

We're going to the MNSSHP on Thursday night and it sounds great! A possible shower we can deal with, 60 in the evenings we can definitly deal with and mid 70's to mid 80's sounds like heaven to us. Right now it is in the upper 30's. Can't wait, we love evenings in jeans and sweatshirts and days with shorts and a t-shirt. Sounds like its exactly what we're hoping for.

Can't hardly wait... :thumbsup::number1:

[Dsnygirl]

So, we leave Thursday, and it's looking more like shorts & tank tops weather than the capris and tee-shirts weather it looked like we were going to have, temperature-wise.

That being said, is there really the possibility of rain every day?? I know that fronts can last awhile, one blew in during our last trip and it was rainy from about 9am - 1pm, then it became beautiful. But what about the pop-up rain showers and t'storms??

Between this site and a few others, there looks to be a significant chance of some serious rain events throughout our trip. (We don't go home 'til the 1st)

Are we looking at a much wetter 10 days than normal, do you think?? Or are fall rains still as quick as summer ones??

I'm thinking our ponchos are going to get more use than just for wet rides...

[Strmchsr]

That being said, is there really the possibility of rain every day?? I know that fronts can last awhile, one blew in during our last trip and it was rainy from about 9am - 1pm, then it became beautiful. But what about the pop-up rain showers and t'storms??

The "pop up" variety showers are still the quick type, just like in the summer. Yes, there's a chance every day, but I really think the chance is pretty slim. 20% tops. So, I wouldn't worry too much about those. The big concern is the fronts. They are generally 1 day things, and this afternoon the models showed them not making it through at all. If that's the case then you'll see warmer, drier weather. If one does make it, though, that changes the temp forecast in a hurry and right now the models are all over the place, so I can't really say which way it'll go for the moment. Hopefully soon.

[Scar]

Hey Chris,

I'm going next week so stay on the Level with me Brother and keep those reports in good shape. ;)

[Strmchsr]

Hey Chris,

I'm going next week so stay on the Level with me Brother and keep those reports in good shape. ;)

Hey, Brother you know I'll pull every string I have for you. :thumbsup:

[tinklover]

it is that time of year when I come to hunt down the weather guru's reports :blush: 10 days out and I am just here checking up on how things look. looking Ok so far, thanks for all you do.:thumbsup:

[Belster]

I am sooooo worried about the weather next week!! I am worried that we are going to encounter some big thunderstorms???

I am used to the daily show and then pass through...please say that is all it is! :confused:

[Dsnygirl]

I am sooooo worried about the weather next week!! I am worried that we are going to encounter some big thunderstorms???

I am used to the daily show and then pass through...please say that is all it is! :confused:
I'm with you, esp. since we're going to MNSSHP the same night!! Here's to hoping our night isn't a rainy one... :fingers:

I'm sure hoping those models change and push those fronts back... :blush:

[Strmchsr]

I am used to the daily show and then pass through...please say that is all it is! :confused:

Don't be too concerned right now. The models really are all over the place, changing every run. Honestly, anything beyond 5 days (instead of my usual 7) is a guess right now. Sometimes the models show a big front coming down at the end of next week, but then the next run it shows the front fizzling out before getting to Orlando. We'll just have to watch for some consistency. Early in the week is also a toss up. The cold front coming through this weekend that pushes back north on Monday and Tuesday I don't think will cause all day rains. Off and on thunderstorms are possible, though. It just depends on how far north that front backs up. Some models show it staying south of Orlando, some don't and I'm trying to sift through them all to see which ones have the best handle on the situation. I'll keep you updated!

[Dsnygirl]

...I'm trying to sift through them all to see which ones have the best handle on the situation. I'll keep you updated!
Chris, you're awesome... thank you so much for keeping us up-to-date on stuff, even when the models are whacky. Here's to hoping they settle down and settle in to something a little more easy to predict!! :thumbsup:

(btw, I now have this thread as a bookmark on my Blackberry so I can check it while we're there... I've come to trust you more than what I hear on TV! :))

[Strmchsr]

(btw, I now have this thread as a bookmark on my Blackberry so I can check it while we're there... I've come to trust you more than what I hear on TV! :))

Thanks Blythe! :blush: Do be aware, though, that I'll be closing this thread and opening the November thread on Nov 1. You'll have to change your bookmark then.

[Dsnygirl]

Thanks Blythe! :blush: Do be aware, though, that I'll be closing this thread and opening the November thread on Nov 1. You'll have to change your bookmark then.
No worries.... all we're doing that day is flying home. :(

[Scar]

Sometimes the models show a big front coming down at the end of next week, ..Chris you're gettin' me excited. I wasn't expecting that at WDW. :blush: ;)

[Strmchsr]

Chris you're gettin' me excited. I wasn't expecting that at WDW. :blush: ;)

Sorry, Brother. It happens sometimes this time of the year. However, it's still voodooland so we'll see how things look over the next couple of days. Looks a little weaker on the late evening models.

[Dsnygirl]

So, seriously... what is up with the temps?? Totally unpacked this week and re-did my suitcase with shorts and tank tops, got rid of jackets and capris... well, except a couple of pairs for the evenings...

I know these temps are WAY above normal for this time of year, this is Aug/Sept. weather.

What's bringing it?? (and what are lows expected to be? Can we anticipate cooler evenings, even though the days will be hot?)

Guess I'm re-thinking adding TL back into the plans... :thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

I know these temps are WAY above normal for this time of year, this is Aug/Sept. weather. What's bringing it?? (and what are lows expected to be? Can we anticipate cooler evenings, even though the days will be hot?)

Actually, the "average" high for this time of the year is 84. So, temps are staying pretty much right on normal. Things warmed up a little bit due to an intense high a couple of weeks ago, but then we had record lows last week. El Nino is what's causing it. It tends to bring more extremes. Anyway, Saturday might be hot depending on when the rain comes, but then Sunday through Thursday or so next week will be right around 85 for highs, which is basically normal. It still depends on when the front moves through next week, but by the end of next week temps should be below normal (upper 70s) so I would imagine October will end up averaging out right around "normal" as some weeks have been hotter and some cooler.

[disneykid@hrt]

Chris you're gettin' me excited. I wasn't expecting that at WDW. :blush: ;)

:covered::haha::funny::rotfl::rub:

[threeh]

Thank the boss for the great forecast. :mickey3: Tell him (or her) you deserve a raise!!!!
Thanks for the good news!!!:thumbsup:

[BiloxiMom]

Chris, are you talking mid 80's with lots of humidity or that nice, comfortable 80's? We're going the 1st thru the 8th and we changed our trip once already to avoid HOT!

[disneykid@hrt]

Are there any forecasts as to what type of winter WDW's expecting? I know that's Extreme Voodooland- but ya know, warmer or colder than usual?

[Strmchsr]

Chris, are you talking mid 80's with lots of humidity or that nice, comfortable 80's? We're going the 1st thru the 8th and we changed our trip once already to avoid HOT!

The humidity shouldn't be too bad. Certainly not summer bad. So, while it will be warm you shouldn't feel like you've just gotten out of the shower after 5 min outside.


Are there any forecasts as to what type of winter WDW's expecting? I know that's Extreme Voodooland- but ya know, warmer or colder than usual?

The really long-range models right now are indicating that things will be a little wetter than normal with temps at or very slightly above normal.As you said, that's "super-voodooland" but given the El Nino in effect that's probably correct.

[Minniefan68]

Chris,
I don't know much about meteorology: What do you mean by Models?

Our stay at the world is the 7-12th, hoping these 'models' you speak of bring good things.

Thanks.

[Strmchsr]

Chris,
I don't know much about meteorology: What do you mean by Models?

The "models" are computer simulations (or models) of the atmosphere. They are the primary means of forecasting. There are a ton of them out there run by different groups - NAM, GFS, UKMET, EWRF (Canadian), NOGAPS, and so on. Essentially these are very complex simulations based on really long advanced calculus, thermodynamics, and fluid dynamics and other physics/chemistry formulas (they give me a big headache just looking at them) that run on super computers which attempt to figure out all the variables of the atmosphere and give us a clue as to what will happen. None of them is perfect and each has its strengths and weaknesses (which is why using an automated site, like weather.com - is useless because they only use 1 model). Therefore I look at all of them, take into account those strengths and weaknesses, and try to build a forecast. Now, once we get past 6-7 days the variables in the atmosphere become so enormous that even super computers can't figure them out with a large degree of accuracy, which is why I refer to the time beyond 7 days as "voodooland." Out that far we can usually tell general patterns, but not specifics.

Hope that helps!!