WDW Weather Forecast - September 30-Oct 16, 2009

[Strmchsr]

Each day in September, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Wednesday pm, September 30, 2009
The last day of September definitely feels like fall! A beautiful day with a high of 82! Tomorrow through Friday highs should stay 83-85 with lows around 60-62. Saturday and Sunday a front approaches which will kick off scattered thunderstorms. The highs will be 85-87. Monday through Wednesday highs will be back to normal for this time of year (which is 88) with highs 87-89 and isolated pop up afternoon thunderstorms.

Long range...Oct 8-9 we're still looking at upper 80s with a high pressure ridge in control, but that breaks down on Oct 10 as a front moves through with scattered thunderstorms (doesn't look like a big rain event) with a high in the mid 80s. Oct 11-12 highs stay in the mid 80s with mostly dry conditions. A big front moves in on Oct 13. That day looks pretty wet with the high probably not out of the 70s, but remember this is all voodoo right now. Actually Oct 14-16 looks extremely wet and stormy as a hurricane moves in to Florida near Tampa and slowly moves across Florida. That's just what the models are showing this afternoon. Do I really think that will happen? No. However, anytime beyond 7 days I'm simply reporting model data not giving an actual forecast. I will say that the pattern for mid October on continues to seem cooler and wetter than normal, but we'll see how that all plays out.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
A vigorous upper trough will bring a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms to the Great Plains today, but an even more significant severe weather threat is likely tomorrow in the broad area from Jackson and Memphis to Kansas City and Omaha. Parameters suggest an enhanced severe risk tomorrow for places like Tulsa and Fort Smith. Some of the storms in that region could produce large hail, damaging wind, and even a few isolated tornadoes.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics :fan:
Not a thing happening across the Atlantic basin.

Click here (http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/faq/hurricane-policy/) to view Walt Disney World's Complete hurricane policy for 2009.

[TiggerD]

Thanks for the info, we are arriving on the 10th and leaving on the 19th. :mickey:

[EpcotFanatic]

We leave tomorrow, and have a quick question!

So this front, is it kicking up more thunderstorms than usual? Or is this just more of the same for Orlando this time of year?

I know it rains every day for short periods... I'm just worried that it's a rain all day type thing.

[steamfitter mouse]

thank you for the weather forcasts we will be leaving new jersey on the 23rd of sept. and any news about the weather is important to us
i'll keep my eyes on this thread and keep my fingers cross for good weather
Thanks again

[Strmchsr]

thank you for the weather forcasts we will be leaving new jersey on the 23rd of sept. and any news about the weather is important to us
i'll keep my eyes on this thread and keep my fingers cross for good weather
Thanks again

:welcome: to Intercot!!! Hope you have a great trip.:mickey:

[DisneyorBust]

Hi Chris!
First, please extend a 'HAPPY BIRTHDAY! to your Mother from us here on Intercot!:party:
Second, thanks for the weather updates. We will be arriving on Saturday and have the huricane season in the back of our minds.

[BMan62]

Thanks, Chris, for the great reports. We'll be arriving on the 15th, so I will be keeping an eye out on your reports on this front moving off the African coast right now. Typical 14 - 18 day cycle would put it in the WDW/Florida area right in the middle of our vacation!

[Strmchsr]

Typical 14 - 18 day cycle would put it in the WDW/Florida area right in the middle of our vacation!

Yeah, you're right about that. The good news is that this is a higher latitude system which means the chances are better than average that anything that develops will recurve. Not a certainty, but I hope that brings you some comfort. :mickey:

[Pally]

Just got back last night from our trip. We could not have asked for better weather. Only minor rain. What more could we ask for. In our book perfect.

Thanks for your reports. :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Just got back last night from our trip. We could not have asked for better weather. Only minor rain. What more could we ask for. In our book perfect.

Thanks for your reports. :mickey:

So glad you had a wonderful trip. I'm even more glad Danny & Bill didn't cause any havoc for you to get in and out. Thanks for the update! :mickey:

[Lucyrella]

Hey Chris,

We will be Disney bound at Thanksgiving through the 6th of December. Will it be warm enough to swim? What are temps usually like this time of year? I looked for some older posts but have not found the answers.

Hope you are doing well, thanks for info,

Carol Ann

[Strmchsr]

Hey, Carol Ann.

That's a tough question. Weather at WDW is extremely variable that time of year. Check Info Central in the historic weather conditions page and you'll see the data for the last 5 years for your exact dates. It's possible to have highs around 80 or 50 or both in the same week. Just looking at general patterns I think this will be a cooler fall/winter, but can't say for sure.

So, to answer your question, yes, swimming is definitely possible that time of year. Especially since the pools are all heated. Getting from the pool to your room, however, might be a bit chilly.

[Lucyrella]

Thanks weather guru.... guess we will find out.... and hope for the 80's....

:mickey:

Carol Ann

[eeyore27]

We are going to MNSSHP on Sept 22nd. :mpumpkin: Do you think it will be rain all day and evening? Or do you think the rain should clear out before the party.

We have never been to the party and are so looking forward to it. I would hate for the entire party to be rained out.

[Strmchsr]

We are going to MNSSHP on Sept 22nd. Do you think it will be rain all day and evening? Or do you think the rain should clear out before the party.

I definitely understand the frustration of being at a hard ticket event in the pouring rain. Done it with MNSSHP once and MVMCP once. The upside was an almost deserted MK. Downside was getting wet.

To answer your question...WAAAAAYYYY too early to tell. That's out in voodooland right now. Anything beyond 7 days the models show general patterns, but specifics just aren't realistic. So, I'm reporting to you what I see on the models but I don't put much stock in that at the moment. By next Tuesday I'll have a better handle on what to expect on the 22nd. Right now the models are being very consistent about the idea of a strong front / cooler air moving in around that time, so I take that idea seriously, but the exact timing (or day) can't be confirmed right now. You know, with Disney doing ADRs 180 days out again it's too bad I can't get the weather to show me exactly what it's going to do that far out.

[Going2HeavenRU]

What does it mean when a cold front comes into the picture? Does that mean a good chance for rain?

[Phantod]

What does it mean when a cold front comes into the picture? Does that mean a good chance for rain?

Bring your ponchos. :rain:

[Strmchsr]

What does it mean when a cold front comes into the picture? Does that mean a good chance for rain?

Usually, but not always. Sometimes a dry front moves through. It all depends on the dynamics of the specific system. In general this time of year, though, you see 1-2 hours of rain out of a cold front with squall line (strong thunderstorms) moving through about 30 min then 60-90 of lighter rain before it clears out. Once it comes through, though, you're looking at lower humidity and lower temps. Much more pleasant. Also, the chances of the isolated afternoon thunderstorms will disappear for a couple of days.

[Suz36]

Tropics :fan:
All is quiet for now. Still a possibility of a flare up in 2-3 weeks with another positive MJO pulse.

What does this mean? Has this been occuring with all the storms, or is this more indicative of something really happening? Is the pattern still such that most likely anything that develops will fizzle out in the Atlantic, or have things shifted? You probably can't even really answer these questions, just looking for some reassurance!:blush:

[Strmchsr]

What does this mean? Has this been occuring with all the storms, or is this more indicative of something really happening? Is the pattern still such that most likely anything that develops will fizzle out in the Atlantic, or have things shifted? You probably can't even really answer these questions, just looking for some reassurance!:blush:

An MJO pulse is simply a pattern which is conducive for the development of tropical storms. It doesn't mean anything will, but when we had the big flare up last month it was during an MJO pulse.

Right now the pattern is still more of the type that would cause Cape Verde storms to curve back into the Atlantic. However, I have no idea if that will be the case in 2-3 weeks. Don't worry, though, should anything develop you will have plenty of warning as to what's coming. Given the patterns of the current year I really don't think you have much to be concerned about.

[Suz36]

Thanks, that makes me feel better! Love your updates, by the way. I've learned so much!!

[Kbeauty63]

how accurate do you feel Weather.com's forecast is for 9/23 - 9/30? The only day that has 60% rain forecasted is 9/27.

Thanks -

Karen

[Strmchsr]

how accurate do you feel Weather.com's forecast is for 9/23 - 9/30? The only day that has 60% rain forecasted is 9/27. Thanks -Karen

Karen,

First off, :welcome: to Intercot!! Glad you're here!

Second, I'm not a big fan at all of the Weather Channel website because all of their forecasts are automated. The have 1 model and the data from that 1 model is automatically placed into the 10 day forecast. There is no human interaction with the forecast at all. With so many cities to cover that's the only way they can do it, but that means their forecast beyond 2-3 days tends to be pretty inaccurate and constantly changing. So, use them for a quick glance, but it's better to use a site like this thread, one of the local TV stations, or the national weather service for that area where you have a human looking over all the various weather models and creating a local specific forecast based on experience, knowledge, and all the various models. Also, even with the best human forecasters, anything beyond 7 days is nothing more than an educated guess.

Remember that the rain chances are going to run pretty much 50-50 every day right now. Due to a weather boundary called the sea breeze which sets up over Florida every afternoon from June-September or early October you will have thunderstorms firing up every day. Whether one actually moves over WDW is about a 1 in 3 to 1 in 2 chance depending on the day. I don't bother giving percentages with my forecast in this situation because they really don't help. Saying 60% chance of rain is baloney. There's 100% chance of rain somewhere in the area. That's why I say "scattered" which means roughly 50-75% of the coverage area will see at least a brief thunderstorm to isolated 25-50%, to very isolated which is less than 25% of the area involved will see some rain.

Hope that helps!!!

[Kbeauty63]

Chris -

Thanks for the welcome & the information. I would just like for it to be clear on Saturday (my birthday) as my friend and I are doing the Wishes' Dessert Party.

I'm (hopefully) going to be prepared for all weather occurances. But really - who cares - I'm going to be at Disney World!

:mickey:

Karen

[Strmchsr]

I don't foresee any major, all-day rain events. These rain chances are usually brief - less than an hour - between 3 and 5 pm in the afternoon, so I think you'll be just fine. Hope you have a great time and :birthday:!

[DebbieFr]

I know its all a bit Voodoo at the moment but any thoughts from 12th October onwards. We are coming from the UK for three weeks and I am trying to decide what to pack.
:confused:

Last time we were out with you we had a shock December 2006, it was so ocld and I wasn't very prepared:blush:
Don't want that to happen again.

I would appreciate your thoughts
:thanks:

[Strmchsr]

Debbie,

Hope you enjoy your trip over from the UK! Well, I can promise no cold like December, but it is hard to tell that far out so obviously I can't give specifics at the moment.

The general pattern that is setting up looks like you might expect low to mid 80s for highs at the start of your trip and upper 60s for lows. By the end of the trip you might be looking at upper 70s to 80 for your highs and low 60s for the low. Still very comfortable. If you get chilly easily you might want to bring a light jacket or sweater for the evening. As we get closer I'll try to be a little more definite for you, but I don't see any big cold snap yet. I think December and January will be the cold times.

[Mitzie]

Hey Chris..DH and I will be at 'The World' Oct. 2-5. Planning on AK on the 4th and your latest forcast doesn't look good::rain: for that day. You mentioned a shift...is that a shift as in it could happen earlier or latter...

[Strmchsr]

You mentioned a shift...is that a shift as in it could happen earlier or latter...

Yep. Or even not at all. The afternoon model run has the front fizzling out over north Florida and not making it to Orlando. That's why I say we really can't put any stock in the long range models. They change too much. Hopefully in the next couple of days I'll have a better handle on things.

[Jforrest2]

I really appreciate the updates. Looks like the weather will be fantastic when we leave in 0 Days 4 Hrs 13 Mins 59 Secs! :party:

[Strmchsr]

I really appreciate the updates. Looks like the weather will be fantastic when we leave in 0 Days 4 Hrs 13 Mins 59 Secs! :party:

Absolutely! I'll get another update out around 12:30 pm CDT, but things look good for you right now. Have a wonderful trip! :mickey:

[jenperich]

Chris,

Thanks for your reports!! Just curious...in your travel section, you had mentioned that there could be delays in Philly due to clouds. Is that throughout your forecast until 10/13? We're leaving on 10/7, and will have a stop in Philly(must to my dismay). Just want to be prepared for a delay. Thanks for the help!

[Strmchsr]

in your travel section, you had mentioned that there could be delays in Philly due to clouds. Is that throughout your forecast until 10/13?

No. I only do the travel delays for today and the following day. I don't ever try to forecast travel issues further than 24 hours unless it's something really major. Delays fluctuate too much to try to go beyond that.

[Tinker-Brendie]

Dear Chris:

I don't usually lurk here much when I don't have a trip planned (I get all jealous...:mad:), but we leave on October 10th for seven glorious WDW days :cloud9: and I was wondering if you were expecting anything notable in the way of temperatures or precipitation. I HATE to wear long pants in WDW, but was thinking I might need some this time. I ALWAYS pack a sweatshirt, but it practically takes a frost to get me to give up my shorts. Thanks in advance for any thoughts that might keep me from packing unnecessary clothing...
Next stop... Food and Wine Festival - YUM!
:eat:

[Strmchsr]

...I was wondering if you were expecting anything notable in the way of temperatures or precipitation.

I wish I could give you a definitive answer, but right now the only advice I can give is "wait on packing." The problem is that all of the long range models are in disagreement. Some show some cooler snaps and potential rain makers during that time and others are showing warm and sunny. They keep flip-flopping from run to run so I'm guessing it'll be 3-4 more days before I get a good handle on the long range pattern. Overall, though, I would say if you don't get cold easily then you should be fine in shorts no matter what. The coolest we're talking is highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s. Even that may be stretching things a bit. If you took a light jacket or sweatshirt for the evenings and maybe one pair of long pants you'd probably be okay. However, keep checking back over the next few days and I should be able to make that more definitive for you in the forecast.

[Dsnygirl]

Chris, I totally understand voodooland and all it's unexpected weirdness, but with all the "model madness" out there for the middle of October, I'm wondering if this means that late October will turn out being a bit crazy weather-wise, too? Or is this model flip-flopping just something that happens every once in awhile, with no real effect on future patterns??

I love reading this thread and seeing how things move & change... you've certainly taught a lot of us a lot about weather patterns, etc!!

Thanks for putting up with all the "voodooland" questions... it's just fun when it starts getting close to a trip!! :thumbsup:

[mudpuppysmom]

Here's to warm dry weather for Oct 14-20 while we are there!!! Chris I hope that is the case, but I know you'll let us know with pretty good certainty what the weather will hold for us as soon as those models clear up!

Here in Pittsburgh winter has arrived.......well, it might as well be winter!

[Strmchsr]

Or is this model flip-flopping just something that happens every once in awhile, with no real effect on future patterns??

Blyte, actually, the model madness is just something that happens occasionally when there are a lot of variables in the atmosphere. This especially happens in early fall and spring. So, the crazy models don't necessarily mean crazy weather. It just means the variables are uncertain and they keep producing different results each time. The models just can't get a handle on what the long wave pattern is going to be yet. Hopefully it'll settle down soon!


Here in Pittsburgh winter has arrived.......well, it might as well be winter!

Get used to that! Just looking at the "big picture" pattern I'm afraid this winter is going to be brutal for a lot of folks. Even down here in the South I'm looking for cooler/wetter conditions. However, winter also means the start of hockey season so Go Pens! :penguin: