WDW Weather Forecat - August 31-Sept 16, 2009

[Strmchsr]

Each day in August, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Monday pm, August 31, 2009
Today and tomorrow should continue to see scattered afternoon thunderstorms with highs 90-92. A front comes south on Wednesday so I think late Wednesday afternoon will have a good chance of thunderstorms with a high around 90. Thursday should be 87-89 with another good round of thunderstorms at some point during the day. Moist air stays in place Friday through Monday so highs will stay 88-90 with a good chance of an afternoon thunderstorm each day. Obviously our potential Erika could change all of this in a hurry.

Long range...Nothing changes for the first half of September. Highs will be around 90 with a chance of a sea breeze thunderstorm each afternoon. No sign of big tropical activity right now.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
No major issues today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics :fan:
The wave east of the Lesser Antilles sure looks good this afternoon, and already looks like a tropical depression to me. Most likely this becomes Tropical Storm Erika sooner than later; it will move northwest, generally north of the islands, during the next few days. Too early to determine if this will recurve harmlessly into the open Atlantic, or be a threat to the East Coast of the U.S. Several of the models are pointing towards FL or Caribbean issues with this storm, but not all. Until it actually forms it'll be impossible to say whether WDW will be impacted or not.

Still no sign of any Gulf of Mexico tropical issues through mid-month.

Since Hurricane Season is heating up, click here (http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/faq/hurricane-policy/) to view Walt Disney World's Complete hurricane policy for 2009.

[BluewaterBrad]

Thanks chris! send us a little more rain down here in Pt. Charlotte!!:mickey:

[sisterdisco]

Thanks!! Just was I was looking for!

[elmjimmlm]

Thanks so much...You know you are getting close when your days are falling into the extended weather catagory...:thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

Thanks chris! send us a little more rain down here in Pt. Charlotte!!:mickey:

You guys are the only part of Florida still in the "abnormally dry" level on the US Drought Monitor. The sea breeze storms seem to be staying north and east of you. I'll send a memo to the boss to send some of the wet stuff your way!

[phillydan]

Thanks....leaving for the airport in exactly 13 hours. :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Thanks....leaving for the airport in exactly 13 hours. :mickey:

Hope you have a great trip! :mickey:

[Sweetpea29488]

Thanks Chris! Just a question about the end of August, when you said wetter conditions, do you mean downpours everyday or afternoon thunderstorms ?

[Strmchsr]

Thanks Chris! Just a question about the end of August, when you said wetter conditions, do you mean downpours everyday or afternoon thunderstorms ?

What I was talking about was a wider coverage for those pop up afternoon thunderstorms. Instead of 25% coverage we could see 60% coverage. Still wouldn't be any more than an hour or less each afternoon as the sea breeze moves over.

[Sweetpea29488]

Thanks for the info. We can handle the afernoon showers. We usually go back for a nap during that time.:thumbsup:

[PixieMagic]

Agreed! Thanks for the clarification! I have been checking everyday! We ended up spending the ENTIRE week in our ponchos one July...praying for some nice weather Aug 16th-22nd!:thumbsup:

[Boost]

Afternoon showers this time of year...you can just set your watch to them.

[SnowWSue]

Almost time for my family's annual trip to Disney World. It just wouldn't be the same if a potential tropical storm or hurricane weren't a possibility. But, that's the way it goes during hurricane season.

Chris, thanks for your updates. Your work here is very much appreciated. Here's hoping that Aug 19-26 are tropical storm/hurricane free. Rain doesn't get us down.....we'll just break out the ponchos.

Sue

[Strmchsr]

Thanks for the words of appreciation Sue. Don't panic with today's update. Until we see how this storm develops and moves nothing is certain. Today's forecast doesn't sound good for your trip, but that will all change in the next day or so and there's still a decent chance this thing will curve out to sea and miss the US entirely.

[PixieMagic]

Let us pray for the curve!!!! Leaving in 5 days!!!

[Live4WDW]

:mickey: Chris, thanks for all the effort and time you put in to the forecast. They are very informative.. Lets hope TD#2 stays away. DW and I are arriving 8/20. Thanks once again.:mickey:

[Lizzy]

Thanks Chris for the updates!

I'm leaving Sat morning for my Birthday trip to the Beach Club. Hoping that this thing stays off coast or at least we will see some sunny time Sat afternoon to get into the pool. Other than that, I don't mind the rain or storms at all, course I grew up here on the coast and am used to them.

[twinboyz]

Thanks for all the information. Let's hope it curves..We're leaving in five days. :mickey:

Great Post! Thanks Again!

[pixiesmimi]

Watching your posts closely right now. We leave in 10 days for WDW. I think last time we went, we left just ahead of a TS that came into FL and Orlando. Hoping our 40th Anniversary trip won't be ruined. I guess we will just hole up in the Poly if it does come in. :)

[Strmchsr]

FYI, here's the WDW plan for approaching hurricanes:


Phase 5
(Monitoring Storm Possible)
Review current plan, checklists and business recovery
plans. Review personnel and resource availability for the ride-out crew. Verify contact numbers and emergency data. Prepare WDW Emergency Operations Center for activation.

Phase 4
(Storm likely within 24–36 hrs)
General readiness imposed. Brief personnel. Review checklists. Consider possible shut down of long lead operations and not starting extended operations. Limited activation and staffing of WDW Emergency Operations Center.

Phase 3
(Storm probable within 12–24 hrs)
Intensify clean up and tie down. Prepare for phase 2 activity. Selected ride-out crew personnel given the opportunity to secure their personal property. Turn in excess radios and vehicles. WDW Emergency Operations Center opens and is fully staffed. Note: Generally this is when the WDW Emergency Operations Center, command centers, and command posts will be fully activated. However, this is an Executive Policy Team decision.

Phase 2
(Storm impending)
Magic Kingdom, Epcot, Disney MGM Studios, Animal Kingdom and Downtown Disney close. Guest campground trailers removed and secured by the guests. Scheduled hotel and campground guests notified of conditions. Complete all clean up and tie down short of shutdown. Authorized ride-out families move to pre-designated shelters. Ride-out crew fully staffed at start of phase 1 or as directed by the WDW Emergency Operations Center. Personnel not in ride-out crew released as soon as possible.

Phase 1
(Storm imminent, take shelter)
Shutdown all activities and immediately take shelter. Fulfill ride-out requirement plans.

Post Storm Phase
Command Centers submit situation reports to WDW Emergency Operations Center. Establish business resumption / recovery schedule. Notify employees through media and cast Member emergency lines of call back as directed by WDW Emergency Operations Center.

[pixiesmimi]

FYI, here's the WDW plan for approaching hurricanes:

Chris, how does this affect those of us coming in on Aug. 23 IF something does come in? Will we be allowed to go ahead and check into our resort? Man! This is Deja-vu. The last time we went, they were predicting a hurricane the same week we were going to be there and I worried all week about it ruining our long awaited vacation. But nothing ever happened except the small monsoon we encountered going to MK the first night we got there. What a way to start our trip!

[Strmchsr]

Chris, how does this affect those of us coming in on Aug. 23 IF something does come in? Will we be allowed to go ahead and check into our resort?

First off, click the link at the bottom of the tropics section in my forecast. That has the full FAQ on WDW's hurricane policy for 2009 and what to do if a hurricane warning is issued before you arrive.

Now, hypothetically, if you landed in Orlando 24 hours or so before a hurricane landfall then, yes, you would be allowed to check into your resort. The parks would stay open as long as possible, but once the storm came in you'd just hunker down at your resort and WDW would take care of you as best they can. Hopefully it won't be an issue. I'll keep you updated!

[pixiesmimi]

Thanks! We aren't flying, we are driving from AL. Just wondering if they were expecting the hurricane on the 23rd or 24th if we would be able to drive in on the 23rd and ck in at the resort. Of course, if the weather was bad, we wouldn't drive down on the 23rd but sure hate to lose our reservations and a day or two of our vacation. Everyone start praying now that it is going to stay out in the Atlantic or not form at all this week. :) I would rather be hunkered down there in the Poly than up here in AL dealing with the tornados or bad weather from it. :)

[Strmchsr]

Thanks! We aren't flying, we are driving from AL. Just wondering if they were expecting the hurricane on the 23rd or 24th if we would be able to drive in on the 23rd and ck in at the resort.

Oh, absolutely. If you can get there they'll let you check in. It'll be a couple of more days though before we know if it's an issue or not. Hopefully it won't be!

[EpcotFanatic]

Chris, whats the average time frame it takes for a storm to form, to the point where you know it's going to impact WDW?

We're visiting September 2-8.

I know you say it's "voodoo territory" to try and jump ahead 2 weeks and the weather can change at any time.

Seems all these storms form about 1,000 miles away and take a few days to a week for them to run their course.

[Strmchsr]

Chris, whats the average time frame it takes for a storm to form, to the point where you know it's going to impact WDW?

Well, for them to get to the point where I am fairly certain it'll impact WDW it's usually 5 days out. In general, though, storms have a life cycle of 10-14 days so, as you noted, it takes quite a while for these storms to develop and complete their course. The models usually aren't a lot of help in this. For instance, this morning's 06z run shows a hurricane hitting Florida on September 1, but my guess is by this afternoon's run that will be gone. What's important this far out is to look for the other factors that might allow a hurricane to make it to Florida.

Just keep an eye on the tropics section of the forecast and anytime there's a wave coming off of Africa that might develop I'll be sure to discuss it. Hope it all goes well for you!

[pixiesmimi]

Still watching this closely but I am feeling a lot more relieved that Bill seems to be going the other direction.

[Strmchsr]

Still watching this closely but I am feeling a lot more relieved that Bill seems to be going the other direction.

Yep. You can relax. A weakness in the ridge should allow Bill to turn north. Bermuda might be in for a rough time, but it looks like no impact on Orlando.

[Pally]

Strmchsr, when will you know if it will significantly impact the Eastern Maritimes. It looks like it might hit here on Sunday afternoon. Do you think it might cause a flight delay for Wednesday (Aug 26) at suppertime. We are flying from Halifax to Toronto and then onto Orlando. I am hoping for the best. We were hit with Jaun and it was pretty bad. I Hope we escape the wrath this time. Hope it goes through quickly with no damage. :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Pally,

I think you'll be okay for the 26th. Yeah, it looks like Bill will at least brush Nova Scotia Sunday. What we can hope for is that the current models are right. They show the eye of Bill passing just east of Nova Scotia on Sunday. That's good news because the western side is never as bad as the eastern side of the storm, so you always want the eye to the east. Also, the cooler waters should significantly decrease Bill's strength by the time he gets to you. So, right now I foresee no problems getting out by the 26th, though there will almost certainly be damage across the Maritimes. I'm definitely hoping it's minor. Nova Scotia and PEI are two of my favorite places in all the world.

[Pally]

Strmchsr,

Thanks for your quick reply. Here in Nova Scotia we have only just begun to have summer weather within the last week. Temperatures in the 30s (celsius) with a humidex of 37. Up until recently the weather has been just awful.

I wonder if this recent heatwave could possibly add some extra umph to Bill?:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

I wonder if this recent heatwave could possibly add some extra umph to Bill?:mickey:

Fortunately, no. It takes a lot longer for the water to heat up as opposed to the air. So, even with a recent heatwave you guys have had a relatively cool summer so the water temps aren't really all that warm which will help weaken Bill.

[Pally]

Well,

It is 4:30 pm here just outside of Halifax in the St. Margaret's Bay area, fairly close to Peggy's Cove. We have almost finished our preparations for hurricane Bill. It is just beautiful outside. Hard to believe an impending hurricane is closing in on us.

We are hoping for the best. When Juan hit in 2003 this whole area lost power for 7 days. It was hard to get gas, propane, stove oil, water, milk, almost anything you can imagine. I think this time most people are taking this storm much more seriously compared to Juan. After Juan and Winter Juan we are much more prepared. We now have our own generator. Now, I can't even imagine not owing one. Over the last few years we have lost our power several times and sometimes at the most unexpected times. Live and learn as they say.

Well, we are are to leave on Wednesday for our trip and I am hoping for the best weather wise.

If alls well, MK on Thursday with Wishes Dessert Buffet to forget all about our troubles.:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Pally, definitely will be thinking of you guys tomorrow afternoon. Still looks like you'll be on the western side of the storm, which is the best scenario. Hopefully Bill will cooperate. Have a great trip down!

[Pally]

Bill, thankfully was not too bad in Nova Scotia. For the most part not much damage done.

Now, I can go back to obsessing about Florida weather. Go away Danny!

Arrival date Aug. 26. :woohoo::joy::clappy:

[DisneyorBust]

Chris,
I have been checking your forecast (thanks for the time and effort!:thumbsup:) for our upcoming September trip and read about a "MJO pulse" just curious as to what this is?

[Strmchsr]

Chris,
I have been checking your forecast (thanks for the time and effort!:thumbsup:) for our upcoming September trip and read about a "MJO pulse" just curious as to what this is?

Eric, MJO stands for Madden-Julian Oscillation. It's a 40-50 day oscillation in tropcial weather patterns discovered in 1971 by Roland Madden and Paul Julian. However, it's significance wasn't really studied or begun to be understood until only very recently. That's why you've heard a lot about El Nino and very little about the MJO. The MJO affects the entire tropical troposphere and involves variations in wind, sea surface temperature (SST), cloudiness, and rainfall. Bascially, at the height of the wave there is a huge increase in convection and in the trough of the wave there is suppressed convection. So when I talk about a "pulse" I'm talking about we're hitting the height of the wave so we expect a time of enhanced convection in the tropics, and thus an increased chance of hurricanes and tropical storms. During the trough of the wave there is a much lower chance of a hurricane forming do to higher trade winds and general suppression of convection.

That may have been more than you were wanting, but you asked. :D

[JTToad]

Chris,
Thank you so much for putting this together. We are going to be in WDW from 9/1 - 9/8 and I have just started to look to find out about the weather down there and this is the first place I have found that really spells it out. Much appreciated. I now know where I will be checking in for the next 5 days.

Thanks again!

[DisneyorBust]

Thanks Chris!
Not too much information, enough to educate me. I find this very interesting!