Weather question re: the fall in FL....

[Dsnygirl]

I know I've asked this kind of question before, and Chris has been very accurate in his long-range predictions of the upcoming "seasonal" weather patterns that are expected.

So, here I am again, about 3 months out from our trip, checking in... :blush:

What are the expectations for the fall weather in Florida, as far as "hotter or cooler than expected", "rainer or drier than normal", that sort of thing?

We are headed down in late October for 10 days, leaving to come home Nov. 1st. We've been there in early October before, and it was lovely - mid to high 80's, sunny, very little rain. Just wondering if that was the "norm" for later October, as well, or if we were just lucky and should expect something different.

(and yes, I know this is total "voodoo land" - love that expression - but Chris, you've been right so much, I figure it doesn't hurt to ask! :thumbsup:)

:thanks:

[Strmchsr]

Hey, Blythe.

As you noted, late October is WAAAAAAAAYYY out there in voodooland. A couple of factors will impact this year's fall at WDW:

1.) We are now into an El Nino cycle. El Nino tends to suppress Atlantic tropical storm development so the chance of you seeing a hurricane would be considerably lower. Not eliminated by any means, but lower. However, El Nino also tends to bring more fronts to FL so the weather is usually wetter than normal with temps below normal. This isn't a particularly strong El Nino, so I wouldn't expect those trends to be pronounced, but I'd say the chance of a cold front bringing rain and cooler temps during your trip would be above average.

2.) How much rain does FL get this summer? Orlando has been in the midst of a drought for most of the last year. All the rain in May helped considerably, but if Florida has an abnormally dry summer (especially with a lack of tropical systems) it could mean temps above normal for the fall.

October is the transition month between the wet and dry seasons for Florida, so these two factors almost seem to cancel each other out. If Florida has a normal summer in terms of rainfall I'd expect a slightly cooler/wetter fall.

I'll be more detailed when we get closer. :mickey:

[Dsnygirl]

:thumbsup: Chris, you're awesome... that was just what I was looking for. Even though it's way out there, I like looking at how the stuff you talk about happens & it's neat to see how it all works together.

Thanks for indulging me... I appreciate it! :blush:

:thanks:

[Strmchsr]

Any time! :thumbsup:

[DadTriton]

My rule of thumb (in Tampa):
hot early summer - cool late summer
wet early summer - dry late summer
tropical system early - none late

It has been really hot and rainy in the last 30 days.
I predict a cooler, dryer fall.

[Dsnygirl]

:mickey: Okay, bringing this question back to Chris now that I'm about 6-7 weeks out from our trip... how's it looking for temps and rain in the fall at Disney?? :fingers:

I'm going to assume you're still going to go with the cooler/wetter assumption, as that's been our life up here in CNY... but just curious to see how things are tracking.... I'd love the "cooler" high 70/low 80 temps... but am hoping for a bit of heat to hit the water parks!!
:D

:thanks:

[Strmchsr]

Blythe,

There's a lot up in the air right now. The last month has been drier than normal which will probably lead to fall temps being right at normal. The one thing that concerns me is that the hurricane track so far has been swinging everything back out into the Atlantic, but the track for late September and October will bring things closer to Florida. Not something I'd really worry about as the overall pattern is suppressed this fall, and you're going late in the season, but it's definitely a piece of the puzzle.

So, right now I'll go with temps right at normal with rainfall still slightly above normal. But, the typical "voodooland" clause goes with that. :D

[Dsnygirl]

:mickey: Thanks Chris.... even living in voodooland right now, it's great to have even a small clue! :thumbsup:

[Belster]

We are going at the same exact time as you...thanks for asking the question. See you there!!!