Ideas for WDW and the New Year

[GrumpyFan]

I was thinking this morning about how Disney seems to be poised for a rough year ahead considering that UNI has a new roller coasting coming, as does Sea World. I know Disney is launching AIE in February, but somehow I don't think this is going to be as big a draw as they're hoping. So, I thought of a few ides that I feel Disney needs to seriously consider this year to pump up WDW attendance.


MK - Fast track the long-rumored Space Mountain/Rocket Mountain refurb. Do it now so it will be ready to open (hopefully) by yearend.
Epcot - refresh Imagination, I think it's time to replace "Honey I shrunk the audience" with a new film. Maybe something like the recently release "Bedtime Stories" could be used. It is highly imaginitive. They could make it interactive where the audience would get to create their own story using a few different story options.
DHS - Fast Track the long-rumored Star Tours 2.0 upgrade.
DAK - Conservation Station enhancement - put in a restaurant, and/or an Imax theatre to lure more people back here.

There's mine, so now add yours, or comment on what I've listed here.

[Ian]

From all I've heard and read, Disney is taking the exact opposite approach. They have basically pulled the plug on any project that wasn't already officially underway. I wouldn't look for anything new in 2009 ... at least not unless the economy starts to show signs of recovery.

The one thing it looks like you will get is the start of the Space Mountain refurb. That looks to be scheduled for a late-April time frame.

[princessgirls]

I think all of those ideas are great. Too bad your not sitting around the big 'ole conference table. I sometimes think that people in the "power-jobs" who don't deal with the public, sometimes lose touch with what WE (the people coming to the parks and spending money) are looking for. They are just looking at the bottom line and not the big picture.

People will stop coming, if product isn't kept fresh and new. AIE is NOT an answer. It is a band-aid on a wound that is not healing. I know how excited I was to go back to Disney after Expedition Everest opened.

Anyway, just my 2 cents.
Julie:mickey:

[Ian]

People will stop coming, if product isn't kept fresh and new.I can't speak to the validity of this, but I read on another site that Disney has done marketing surveys in the past that indicated they could go a full six years without adding a new attraction before that would end up manifesting itself as a downturn in attendance.

A couple points, though ... #1, this comes from a site notorious for having dubious information and #2, Disney is well known for crafting survey questions that stimulate the desired end result. I highly doubt that this survey took into account things like the opening of Harry Potter, Sea World's new coaster, etc.

I can tell you that if they went six years without adding anything, we would definitely scale back the number of trips we take at minimum. As it is, we're already cutting out one trip this year and doing a cruise instead. They just aren't giving us the reasons to come back that they used to.

[crazyred11588]

Personally, I don't really think that they HAVE to change things for me to come back, especially since I haven't been in about 2 years (and my dad swears we aren't going back for at least another 2). I love the atmosphere, and while yes, some of the rides are kitschy after a while, I still enjoy them. That being said, I can understand where you're coming from with the fact that there is no point in going that many times if its always the same. Do I necessarily think that it will cause a huge impact in attendance? Probably not. There is always going to be, for lack of a better term, that "stigma" of Disney World. The feeling that everyone wants to at least try it once. So yeah maybe it will affect the non-diehard fans some, but I don't forsee a humongous drop in attendance.:mickey:

[Ian]

Personally, I don't really think that they HAVE to change things for me to come back, especially since I haven't been in about 2 years (and my dad swears we aren't going back for at least another 2). I love the atmosphere, and while yes, some of the rides are kitschy after a while, I still enjoy them. That being said, I can understand where you're coming from with the fact that there is no point in going that many times if its always the same. Do I necessarily think that it will cause a huge impact in attendance? Probably not. There is always going to be, for lack of a better term, that "stigma" of Disney World. The feeling that everyone wants to at least try it once. So yeah maybe it will affect the non-diehard fans some, but I don't forsee a humongous drop in attendance.:mickey:I sort of agree, but for people like us that go 2-4 times per year you've got to give us some reason to keep making that many trips.

I've always wondered, though, what percentage of WDW visitors are first-timers vs. repeat guests?

[crazyred11588]

I sort of agree, but for people like us that go 2-4 times per year you've got to give us some reason to keep making that many trips.

I've always wondered, though, what percentage of WDW visitors are first-timers vs. repeat guests?

Yeah, I understand what you mean by the fact that when you have that luxury you want more and more reasons ;) (I'm just kidding btw!)

Thats a good question. I wonder if there is any way to find that out...

[Stu29573]

I've always wondered, though, what percentage of WDW visitors are first-timers vs. repeat guests?

From what I've read, there is a much higher percentage of first time or infrequent visitors at DW than at DLR (which is seen as more of a "local" attraction for some reason) , but I can't give any hard figures....or even say for sure where I read it....Sorry!

[lockedoutlogic]

We had this debate in length last year with the ever-so-frantic "they need to match harry potter land!" frightfest....

No....they don't...

Nor do they have to match any coasters at Universal or Sea World.....nor new "Moses cast out into the desert" walk throughs at Holyland.....

People tend to forget just how massive and dominant WDW is....even in the tourist infested sunshine state....

No game comes even close to packing all the punch that the disney property does.....not even one bit as far as volume of stuff in one defined, distinct area.

Disney is the Turkey.....all the others are trimmings.

Disney knows this, universal knows this, Anheiser Busch (though i think they sold their parks) knows this....Six Flags has stayed away for 30 years because of this.....

They need not do anything to keep the rooms and gates relatively full...

Why? because they are one of the biggest pieces of 20th century americana spread internationally and over all living generations...

They have you psychologically...they know it.

What and when they choose to add is more for marketing and operational issues than to counter rivals. it's more for PR than any dream of Walt Disneys.....and it's done to make an effort.

The biggest proof of this is the Studios....which are now 20 years old and never got anykind of major investments that would make it anywhere close to onpar with MK or EPCOT....
why? because we all keep going anyway....even after new waterparks, a new sea world park, and the entire universal complex opened after it.....

Why spend the money simply for effect? If they countered every new ride....which they could do and not blink at the money....they wouldn't really be getting much back in the way of cash....

And like it or not....that's the bottomline.

[lockedoutlogic]

From what I've read, there is a much higher percentage of first time or infrequent visitors at DW than at DLR (which is seen as more of a "local" attraction for some reason) , but I can't give any hard figures....or even say for sure where I read it....Sorry!


Exactly the opposite...

Disneyland has alot of repeats because they are in the largest state of the country...

But WDW has more than 50% repeat guests at all times.

It hasn't always been this way....but for 20 years the amount of cash spent on vacations has gone up...as have the frequency of air travel, and let's not forget timeshares and vacation homes....and even foreigners from europe and south america have become once a year travelers to WDW

When i was a kid WDW was an exotic once every 10 years type thing....it involved planning and saving....

My 1 year old son will be just happy as clam being strolled around EPCOT on his third visit next week....with number four in april.

And my wife and i aren't rolling in it.....we just made the decision to purchase DVC and now go for four or five day trips multiple times a year....

It's still pricey....but manageable from the East Coast (where most of the people and travelers still reside).....

And i could name probably 20 close friends or acquaintances that do this the same way....without really thinking....

there are many reports, articles, and studies done on travel habits each year....

Florida has been the focus of many of them....and it's just not as "far" as it was in the 60's,70's,80's, or even early 90's.

And if you can go....and it isn't that big of a deal...and you figure "why not?"

Then what do you do? You go....

repeat visits

[Ian]

You could work for Disney with that attitude ... history has proven over and over again that no one retains dominance forever, especially not in the face of overwhelming corporate indifference to the needs and wants of the customer.

I'll point you to a little company known as "General Motors" as a prime example of that.

Also, you underestimate one aspect of this ... while I agree 100% that none of the theme parks currently competing with Disney World will be able to drag a large percentage of their guests away, it doesn't take a large percentage of guests to make a significant dent in the bottom line.

Consider this ... Disney is constantly striving to increase traffic through the gates. If they instead lose even just 2 or 3% of foot traffic to Harry Potter Land that's a big problem for them.

It's not about people turning away in droves ... the margin is narrow and they absolutely do have to compete with the other parks. Ironically enough, WDW management seems to understand that. It's Corporate (i.e. Rasulo) who doesn't get it and believes his fundamentally flawed "guest satisfaction surveys."

[GrumpyFan]

Also, you underestimate one aspect of this ... while I agree 100% that none of the theme parks currently competing with Disney World will be able to drag a large percentage of their guests away, it doesn't take a large percentage of guests to make a significant dent in the bottom line.

Consider this ... Disney is constantly striving to increase traffic through the gates. If they instead lose even just 2 or 3% of foot traffic to Harry Potter Land that's a big problem for them.


Agreed.

The combined attendance estimates for 2007 at the 4 major parks and water parks was over 50 million. A decline of 3% would mean about 1.5 million fewer guests thru the gates. WDW had an average annual growth rate around 3.5% over the last 10 years, and that includes the 2001 & 2002 when their levels dropped 6 & 10%.

[Ian]

Okay, so let's take a 3% drop as an example. Personally, I think that's very reasonable in this economy, with a perceived serious strain on vacation budgets, people being more selective about where/how often they vacation, etc.

So if they lose 1.5 million guests in a given year, what would that translate to in lost revenue? I can't possibly imagine that average spending per guest is anything less than $100. Heck, it costs $75 just to get in to the place for a day. If you add a meal in there, you're at $100.

So do the math ... that's $150 million in lost revenue for a year. More than enough to make any company sit up and take notice.

[GrumpyFan]

Well, 3% may just be a starting point. I seem to remember hearing last month that bookings for January & February were off about 6-7% compared to a year ago. So, if the economy causes at least 3%, I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict that Universal & Seaworld adding new (major) attractions when Disney doesn't, could possibly add another 2-3% decline, which would put the loss closer to 3 million people and $300 million in revenue. At this point it becomes quite significant.

Of course, all this is speculation. AIE and the new WWYC promotion (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/park/celebrationvacation.asp) might actually help prevent the erosion of attendance levels. Only time will tell.

[lockedoutlogic]

I have to laugh....

Here's the first and last problem with the counter argument:

When has WDW's attendance declined when other area attractions has increased?
answer: never

When has WDW's growth not outpaced the other area attractions?
Answer: never


That's that. It comes back to size and perception...and WDW is way ahead in both those key departments....like Secretariat at the Belmont ahead.....

Ian brings up an interesting analogy with GM/ American cars....

But did it not take Honda and Toyota since the 70's to overtake the sales of the americans? 30 years from the ground up?

Now look at Universal Florida.....have they "cut into" disney's lead in 20 years?
No...in fact....disney received higher spikes than they did at every turn.

Studios....nuisance.....IOA....nuisance....Harry Potter? Still a nuisance.

In fact....hasn't harry potter already started to fade? as predicted?

Do you see potter merchandise at stores? is it ever in the news?

huh?

[Ian]

Just because it's historically been that way, doesn't mean it always will be.

Actually, that's exactly the kind of thinking that I see Mouse House execs espousing and it's wrong, it's always been wrong, and it always will be wrong.

NOTHING, and I do mean nothing, lasts forever if not properly tended, maintained, and developed and every, single, solitary corporation in the world will fail if they stop listening to their customers and start dictating to them instead.

Might it take a decade? Yep. But it absolutely will happen.

And bear in mind, do we really know when that decade started? I think we'd all agree that Disney World has been in a pretty significant tailspin for nearly a decade already. Maybe Harry Potter, et. al. will be the tipping point ... is it likely? Nah ... it's not likely. But I also won't dismiss it out of hand like you do.

Times have dramatically changed in the last 12 months. I think that paradigm shift may affect areas that aren't immediately apparent.

Hey, look ... Disney's animated features are a perfect example of how a company can pretty quickly lose its previously unquestioned dominance.

They churned out a bunch of stinkers in a row (Chicken Little, etc. :ack:) and it caught up to them with Bolt. Bolt was, by all accounts, a really, really good movie and it turned in a miserable performance at the box office. It got a serious beat-down from every other significant animated feature released this year.

Why? Because they dilluted and cheapened their brand so badly that the name "Disney" is no longer the immediate box office draw that it used to be.

It can happen ... it has happened ... and it will continue to happen if they continue to allow the quality of their brand to erode.

[Stu29573]

I think we'd all agree that Disney World has been in a pretty significant tailspin for nearly a decade already.

I don't agree.

Attendance numbers don't bear that out. There have been major attractions that have opened, and overall customer satisfaction is very high. I don't see that as a "tailspin" at all.

Sometimes I think people get so caught up in the "I want Disney to do it my way" mindset that they can't see the forest for the trees.

While I agree that Disney can't just rest on their laurels, I certainly don't think they plan to.

Do I think they could do certain things better? Sure, but they do what they do better than anybody else in the industry and the numbers bear that out.

[Ian]

Do I think they could do certain things better? Sure, but they do what they do better than anybody else in the industry and the numbers bear that out.I won't comment on the first part of your post except to say that you and I have different opinions on the current state of the Walt Disney Company.

But I will say that the sentence that I quoted pretty much is exactly the sentiment that I'm arguing against.

The numbers bear it out now, but they won't always. You simply cannot allow the quality, service level, and overall integrity of your brand continue to deteriorate and never see any repercussions from it.

[lockedoutlogic]

Ian,

you know i love you.....

but it seems your entire complaint here is based in the Disney mantra of "Quality will win out"

Well guess what? Disney's quality is still higher by far than anyone else's.....and nobody else has nearly the capital to make a legitimate challenge....

Just think of how much has been spent on WDW....adjusted for inflation....in 40 years....

The initial groundwork...canals, lakes, ponds, locks, and drainage system is such a massive undertaking by today's standards that nobody will ever be able to do anything like it again...short of the chinese government or Haliburton:ack:

And then they built loads of things in 70's 80's and early 90 dollars....

There just isn't anybody close....and short of the world's richest man spending his entire legacy building amusement enterprises in Daytona Beach...it is not even feasible that anyone will match disney's might in the park world......nor even get within earshot.

While the overall quality and what they put the name "Disney" on has fallen greatly.....they are not in danger of any threats.....probably forever....at least not as long as they maintain status quo on the surface....which they will always do....because selling product requires it.

I feel your pain for what was....but let's be clear....

They don't have to worry about negative word of mouth putting them behind anyone.

you know it....i know it.....we all can take a second and easily understand it.

Even with that wizard kid book thing coming....what was the name? there doesn't seem to be much mention of it since the last book came out....

[princessgirls]

IMO... (which I'm not an MBA, but do have a clue about corporate infrustructure) Disney is just like ANY big corporation today. They are a little scared. Profits will not be soaring up this year. They are taking measures, scaling back, cutting out fantasmic showings, cancelling Pirate and Princess parties, and doing what needs to be done interally to try and keep the profits from dropping. Disney just recently got REALLY burned on the whole Lehman Brothers collaspe. They pre-bought their natural gas on lehman brothers financing, and now they have to get their gas at the current market price and they have no financing. They still offer such a fabulous product, BUT I agree with Ian, us savy Disney addicts (myself included) keep coming for the new and updated attractions. They are doing well with the DVC and that keeps solid cash capital coming in to keep working on the current projects. They will tweak and tighten until people really complain. Keep the park clean and neat, rooms clean and the food quality good and people won't notice as much of the internal cost-cutting.
I've done SeaWorld recently. It wasn't Disney. It was nice, but just not as shiny and polished IMO.
I have enjoyed reading these posts, and have learned a few things too!
Thanks gentleman!
Julie:mickey: