WDW Weather Forecast - November 30-Dec 16, 2008

[Strmchsr]

Each day in November, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Sunday pm, November 30, 2008
Well, the front sped up by 3-4 hours and at 1:00 pm EST a large squall line is headed towards WDW and will be followed by a fairly large rain mass that will last through the rest of the day. A tornado watch is in effect until 5:00 pm EST. Today's high will hit 75. Tomorrow will be cooler with a high 65-67 and a low around 55. Tuesday will be 60-62 for the high with a low 44-46. Now, there's a very slight chance an isolated shower could pop up tomorrow and Tuesday, but I honestly think both days should be rain free. I think Wednesday and Thursday will also be rain free with highs 66-68 on Wednesday (low of 42-44) and 70-72 on Thursday (low 48-50). The next front approaches on Friday. Right now it looks like scattered showers will be possible, but the main energy will move up the east coast so I don't think it'll be a huge rain event. Just hit and miss stuff with a high of 75-77. After the front passes Saturday will cool back to 68-70 for the high and 47-49 for the low. Sunday will be clear with a high 70-72 and a low 50-52.

Long range...The latest long range GFS projections are hinting at a change in the overall pattern with the gradual development of a closed low over the Western US. This would bring Florida into a wet and mild pattern with a strong southwesterly flow aloft. The problem is the models are flip-flopping almost every run. So, for today my best guess on the long range is Dec 8-9 look clear with highs in the 74-76 range and lows in the mid 50s. Dec 10 warms to near 80 with the approach of a cold front. Isolated showers are possible. Dec 11-12 will have highs in the mid 70s. The next big front moves through on Dec 13 with thunderstorms and a high in the low 70s. Dec 14-16 looks clear with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. Again, this is changing every run, so take it with a grain of salt for the time being.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
At noon CST, Atlanta, JFK, La Guardia and Chicago are all at 90 min delays while Newark and Philly are at 2 hours. Tomorrow expect delays in the Northeast.

[Dyanna]

We will be leaving this coming Fri night. Can you tell how humid it will be next week if at all. I am still undecited as to pack short sleeves or light weight long sleeves. Of course I already have my light jacket for the evenings.

[Strmchsr]

We will be leaving this coming Fri night. Can you tell how humid it will be next week if at all. I am still undecited as to pack short sleeves or light weight long sleeves. Of course I already have my light jacket for the evenings.

Humidity shouldn't be a problem at all. Drier air will filter in this weekend, so even when temps go to 80 or low 80s next week it won't be bad. Unless you get cold very easily short sleeves for the day with a light jacket for evening will probably be perfect.

[Minniefan68]

Hi Chris,
We leave in 9 days and so far your weather prediction looks great for the 16th-22nd. I sure hope it stays that way. You've been right on the money for our last two trips in '06 and '07.

Keep up the great work - thanks for maintaining the weather update post.

Cheryl:girl:

[Texas Tinkerbell Too]

Oh, man! We were hoping to see the shuttle launch on Friday. Thanks for the updates, Chris.

[Strmchsr]

Right now it doesn't look good for a shuttle launch on Friday. Regardless of the amount of rain I think low clouds / winds would be an issue. However, it all depends on the timing of this storm and that could potentially still change.

[tigger24601]

i know it's a little off topic but it's sooo weird that there's still hurricanes developing this late in the season when it's been so cool so early.

otherwise we leave sunday for our trip to the world. keep the beautiful weather comin.

[Strmchsr]

i know it's a little off topic but it's sooo weird that there's still hurricanes developing this late in the season when it's been so cool so early.

Even though it is much cooler across the US, water takes much longer to heat up/cool down. Directly along the Gulf Coast things are already pretty cool, but down in the Caribbean not so much, hence the reason Paloma was able to grow so strong. Also, there's a lot more that goes into hurricane development than temps.

I think that one was probably the last one, though, even though hurricane season lasts through the end of the month.

[BigRedDad]

Thanks for the update Strmchsr. I have been trying to keep an eye on the weather because it has been so crazy for 11/21 -11/27. I looked at different models also and they are all showing that the trough is not going to drop down and bring rain. It is looking like low 70s and upper 40s/low 50s Thanksgiving week.

[Strmchsr]

Thanks for the update Strmchsr. I have been trying to keep an eye on the weather because it has been so crazy for 11/21 -11/27. I looked at different models also and they are all showing that the trough is not going to drop down and bring rain. It is looking like low 70s and upper 40s/low 50s Thanksgiving week.

The problem is it depends on which model run and which model you look at. One run shows a deep trough Thanksgiving week, the next shows a more zonal flow. It's total craziness right now beyond about next Thursday. I generally use the 12z models every day for my forecast, but if I used the 06z you'd have a totally different long range. :ack: Hopefully it'll settle down in the next day or two. At the moment, though, it does look pretty comfortable with slightly below average temps for that week, but nothing brutal.

[ddcrna]

So Chris - if you had to make a really wild guess, (based on your expertise, of course :blush:) what would you predict for our dates?

[DisneyorBust]

I just wanted to say "Thank You!" We are heading to WDW tomorrow and have been following your forecasts. Thanks again!:number1:

[Strmchsr]

So Chris - if you had to make a really wild guess, (based on your expertise, of course :blush:) what would you predict for our dates?

The way the models are going right now it's basically throwing a dart at a spinning weather board to figure out what's going on that far out. :D However, given current trends I'd expect cooler than normal temps (60s to low 70s for highs and 40s for lows) and a rain chance every 3-4 days. I could be wrong and you'll see nothing but sunny skies and a high around 80, but while I don't have the details I think I have a decent read on the overall pattern right now.


I just wanted to say "Thank You!" We are heading to WDW tomorrow and have been following your forecasts. Thanks again!:number1:

You're welcome! Have a great trip!!! :mickey:

[mouseketeer mom]

We are going for our first 2nd week in March trip next year. Please tell me it will be warm for us!!

[Strmchsr]

lol, that's a little far out for me to have any kind of clue as to what the weather will be doing. Chances are it'll be pretty comfortable. However, check the historic weather page in Info Central which will give you the exact conditions on the days of your trip over the last few years. That will at least give you a base to plan with.

[LandFan]

Possibly stormy on Dec 2nd - ugghh. Hope that doesn't impact our MVMCP!! Before or after would be better!

[Strmchsr]

Don't worry about it too much. That's changing with every model run. Wait till 7 days out before you start to worry one way or the other.

[LandFan]

Nah.We won't worry. Our trip is what we make of it. It would be nice to have MVMCP with no rain but if it happens, c'est la vie!

Thanks!

[robyn221]

Thanks for the forecast! Looks like the weather will be almost perfect for our WDW trip. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday! I know we will!

Robyn:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday! I know we will!

Robyn:mickey:

Thanks, Robyn! I hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving and a wonderful trip as well.

[jnfr2424]

Thank you for the weather forecast Strmchsr!
I will be arriving on the 25th and I plan on being in BB on Thanksgiving morning!
I hope that storm does not come on the 30th- that the Christmas Parade!

Happy Thanksgiving and have a GREAT weekend!

[Strmchsr]

Happy Thanksgiving and have a GREAT weekend!

Happy Thanksgiving to you as well and have a great trip!! :turkey:

[henry.james.s]

Well for Dec 1st thru 10th I better plan for cooler weather and off & on rain. Better than snow..getting down to 15 tonight in Hockeytown.
It'll feel like Christmas!!

[MushuGrl]

YAH!!! After the soggy disaster that was our MNSSHP last year, been keeping our fingers crossed for a nice MVMCP on the 9th!

[Strmchsr]

Don't be too anxious about it. That's WAY into voodooland. The models don't handle specifics well that far out. Just looking at this morning's runs it shows the front coming through later and only very isolated, light showers popping up on the 9th. Things will switch back and forth for the next few days.

[mudpuppysmom]

So we're thinking that it's going to be a bit colder than expected.....our trip is Dec 9-16 and I guess I'll not be packing too much mild weather clothing for my 6 mo. old?

I was hoping for decent weather so I would not have to confine him to the stroller under a rain shield.

I know it's voodooland, but what are you expecting?

[Strmchsr]

It's totally a guess right now, but, yeah, I think temps will be below normal for most of December. Not frigid, but highs in the low to mid 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s. The patterns have been hinting that direction, and certainly there's plenty of cold air up north to make this happen. The question is whether the big east coast trough sets up to bring the cold air south. Right now I can't say for sure, but I wouldn't be looking for 80 degree weather like Florida has had the last couple of Decembers.

[Bri]

i'm trying not to freak out just yet. but we are going dec 8-15. we have mvmcp tix on the 11, i hope this front you're talking about doesn't effect it!

[glenpreece]

Bring on those cool temps from Dec13-19th!!!!!

[lindique]

Chris, thank you for posting - even on Thanksgiving! We really appreciate your knowledge and help.:number1:

[TBY2225]

Thanks so much for the awesome weather updates. You are always much closer to the "real" weather than the other sources out there! Hope your Thanksgiving was wonderful! We leave for the world in 5 days! YIPPEE!

[Dr. Disney]

Chris, as usual, you are one of the most resourceful Intercotee's!! I cannot say enough how much we appreciate your forecasts... although I really hope you are wrong for once :) We are going down in 9.5 days (:cloud9:) and are also going to MVMCP Dec. 9th. In Wisconsin now, it's very chilly. I would so like to be in WDW wearing just a T-Shirt!!

[princess0511]

I read other sites that are calling for rain on Thursday Dec 4, what is your take on this. We are attending the MVMCP this day. Thank you so much.

[Strmchsr]

I read other sites that are calling for rain on Thursday Dec 4, what is your take on this. We are attending the MVMCP this day. Thank you so much.

I would disagree with that assessment. Looking at the models this afternoon, and just glancing at the latest run this evening, I think you'll be fine on the 4th.

[bkfree]

Thanks for all of the weather work you do.
And a big ROLLLL TIDEEEEE!!!


We are going to WDW Dec 3-10 and from what I gather from your forecast we can expect upper 60's to low 70s during the day and mid
40's to mid 50's at night and little rain.
Does this sound right?

I am worried about the evening of the 9th, we have PS for the 8pm CP at Epcot which is outdoors. What are the chances this will be rained upon?

Thanks again
and life is good in the SABANATION!

[Marymouse2003]

I'm starting to get a little worried. We'll be in the world 8th-15th. MVMCP on 9th. I 've been praying for upper 60's in day & Upper 40''s in evening, with no rain. In '06, MVMCP night was HORRIBLE. I'm telling you it absolutely poured down all night. They ran the 1st parade, well parts of it, but we were just soaked. I hate the ponchos. It was so humid, hot, wet. The fur on my Minnie Christmas hat looked like a wet duck. Pls give me your thoughts for night of the 9th. Thanks in advance!! Mary

[Strmchsr]

And a big ROLLLL TIDEEEEE!!! We are going to WDW Dec 3-10 and from what I gather from your forecast we can expect upper 60's to low 70s during the day and mid 40's to mid 50's at night and little rain. Does this sound right? I am worried about the evening of the 9th, we have PS for the 8pm CP at Epcot which is outdoors. What are the chances this will be rained upon?

Roll Tide to you too! For the early part of your visit, yeah, that's right. During the latter part it may be a little warmer. We'll see how the models trend tomorrow.


I'm starting to get a little worried. We'll be in the world 8th-15th. MVMCP on 9th. Pls give me your thoughts for night of the 9th. Thanks in advance!! Mary

I just stopped in the Thibodaux/Raceland area last week on my way to/from Baldwin for an UMCOR disaster response conference.

As for both of you asking about the MVMCP on the 9th, things are looking better. Several model runs in a row now have shown no rain for the 9th with it coming on the afternoon of the 10th instead. However, that's not yet set in stone. Give it a couple of more days and we should be able to tell with more certainty, but for now it's looking better.

[Marymouse2003]

Thanks Chris for the weather info. I'll keep praying for some beautiful Christmas weather. He does say to ask, so I am. I do hope your stop in our area was a good one. Folks on the bayou are the best. IMHO that is. lol!

I just noticed you ALABAMA ROLL TIDE peeps. I'm not quite sure how I feel about that, since I bleed PURPLE & GOLD. GEAUX TIGERS! It's been absolutely painfull watching our Tigers this year. I can imagine the excitement you guys must be feeling, since we won last year. I don't have a problem with AL, it's the coach. Yes, (Old Satan Saban) as some LSU fans refer to him as, that entire things just rubs me WRONG, BUT.............I will pull for a SEC team, even AL. SEC is the best!!!!!! I better hush. There's some things that start riots, religion, politics and COLLEGE FOOTBALL! Anyway, thanks so much for the weather info and good luck AL guys.

God bless,
Mary

[Strmchsr]

I do hope your stop in our area was a good one. Folks on the bayou are the best. IMHO that is. lol!

I had a great visit. Always enjoy my time in Louisiana (except when I played at Miss State and we came to LSU). :D