WDW Weather Forecast

[Strmchsr]

Each day in September, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Sunday am, September 28, 2008 :mickey:
Hey, everyone. I'm headed out for my own WDW trip in a few minutes. :mickey: So, since like many of you I refuse to pay $10/day for internet that's free everywhere else I'll be away from the weather desk until next Saturday (Oct 4). First off, yes, there is a tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico headed towards FL that MAY turn into a depression. Probably means Tuesday will be very wet (and my MNSSHP will be rained out) but strong shear should keep it from developing into anything stronger.

Now, to if you need weather info before I get back, try these links:

1.) WFTV (http://www.wftv.com/weather/index.html), Channel 9 in Orlando

2.) Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Orlando,%20FL&wuSelect=WEATHER) Orlando forecast

3.) National Hurricane Center (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) to stay up to date on any tropical news

Hope that helps until I get back. For those of you going this week, highs will be in the 84-86 range pretty much through Thursday and 86-88 for Friday through Sunday. Monday could see a couple of isolated showers, at least part of Tuesday will be wet, though I don't think it'll be an all day rain, and Wednesday through next Sunday looks dry.


Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
Delays are possible today from DC up to Maine. Pretty much the same are could be impacted tomorrow along with south Florida.

Tropics :fan:
Hurricane Kyle is about 140 miles south southeast of Nantucket this morning. Kyle is still a minimal hurricane. It is moving north northeast at nearly 25 mph. It is moving over colder water, but the quick forward speed will limit the weakening. In fact, Kyle may remain a hurricane until just before landfall near the Bay of Fundy between New Brunswick and Nova Scotia around midnight tonight. Kyle will bring tropical storm force winds to Nantucket and the Eastern Cape this afternoon. Then tonight, as the center approaches land, tropical storm force winds will affect Downeast Maine east of Portland. Strong tropical storm force winds could affect the extreme eastern coast of Maine, but the highest winds should occur in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in Canada. Environment Canada is warning that extensive tree damage and power outages will occur. Storm surge should not be a big problem. Rains of up to 3 inches will affect eastern New England and the Maritime Provinces of Canada.

There are some signs that a tropical depression could form over the southern Gulf of Mexico in the next couple of days. It would move northeast toward the Florida Peninsula. Strong wind shear should limit development. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, two other disturbances, but prospects for development are slim.

[Strmchsr]

Since so many have asked about it here's the repost of the WDW hurricane cancellation policy:


Hurricane Policy FAQ

From June 1 to November 30 in the event a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area or for the guest's place of residence within 7 days before the scheduled arrival date, the guest may call in advance to reschedule or cancel their Walt Disney Travel Co. Magic Your Way vacation package without any cancellation or change fees imposed by Disney. This temporary policy also applies to most Walt Disney World Resort room-only reservations booked directly with Disney, as well as reservations at Disney's Vero Beach Resort or Disney's Hilton Head Island Resort in the event a hurricane warning is issued for those destinations.

Q. What can I do if a hurricane warning is issued?
A. If a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area or for your place of residence no more than seven (7) days before your scheduled arrival date, you may call in advance to reschedule or cancel your Walt Disney Travel Co. Magic Your Way vacation package and most room only reservations (booked directly with Disney) without any cancellation or change fees imposed by Disney. This policy also applies to Disney's Vero Beach Resort or Disney's Hilton Head Island Resort in the event a hurricane warning is issued for those destinations.

Q. Will I be responsible for any cancellation or change fees or other amounts?
A. If you have products and services provided by third party suppliers included in your vacation, such as airlines, hotels, car rental agencies or vacation insurance companies, you will continue to be responsible for any non-refundable payments, as well as cancellation or change fees assessed by those suppliers. The policy does not apply to certain special events or dining experiences.

Q. What if I prefer to reschedule my vacation to a different date because of a hurricane warning? Will I be able to get my same accommodations?
A. If you are scheduled to arrive within seven (7) days of the hurricane warning, you may call us in advance to reschedule without Disney imposed change fee. All amounts you paid to Disney for rooms, park tickets, Disney dining plans and other Disney products and services will be applied toward your new reservation. Any discounts or free offers applicable to your original vacation will not apply to the rescheduled vacation. We cannot guarantee availability of similar accommodations for the new travel dates. The policy does not apply to certain special events and dining experiences.

Q. I received a special offer when I booked my vacation. If I reschedule will I get the same special offer?
A. All amounts you paid to Disney for rooms, park tickets, Disney dining plans and other Disney products and services will be applied toward your new reservation. Any discounts or free offers applicable to your original vacation will not apply to the rescheduled vacation. The policy does not apply to certain special events and dining experiences.

Q. If I want to cancel or reschedule my vacation, what should I do with my airline tickets?
A. If you booked your air travel through the Walt Disney Travel Co. and you want to reschedule, we will attempt to re-book your air travel. But remember, you will be responsible for any cancellation or change fees imposed by the airline. If you did not book your air travel through the Walt Disney Travel Co., you should contact the airline.

Q. I did not book my package through the Walt Disney Travel Co. Does this policy apply to my package too?
A. No, you should contact your travel agent or tour operator directly for information relating to the cancellation and change policies that apply to your package.

Q. I have a sports or group package. Does this policy apply to my package?
A. No, the policy only applies to Walt Disney Travel Co. Magic Your Way packages. It does not apply to sports, youth, or other group or special event rooms or packages and does not apply to meetings and conventions.

[Strmchsr]

And as an added bonus here's the WDW Hurricane Strategy:


Phase 5
(Monitoring Storm Possible)
Review current plan, checklists and business recovery plans. Review personnel and resource availability for the ride-out crew. Verify contact numbers and emergency data. Prepare WDW Emergency Operations Center for activation.

Phase 4
(Storm likely within 24–36 hrs)
General readiness imposed. Brief personnel. Review checklists. Consider possible shut down of long lead operations and not starting extended operations. Limited activation and staffing of WDW Emergency Operations Center.

Phase 3
(Storm probable within 12–24 hrs)
Intensify clean up and tie down. Prepare for phase 2 activity. Selected ride-out crew personnel given the opportunity to secure their personal property. Turn in excess radios and vehicles. WDW Emergency Operations Center opens and is fully staffed. Note: Generally this is when the WDW Emergency Operations Center, command centers, and command posts will be fully activated. However, this is an Executive Policy Team decision.

Phase 2
(Storm impending)
Magic Kingdom, Epcot, Disney MGM Studios, Animal Kingdom and Downtown Disney close. Guest campground trailers removed and secured by the guests. Scheduled hotel and campground guests notified of conditions. Complete all clean up and tie down short of shutdown. Authorized ride-out families move to pre-designated shelters. Ride-out crew fully staffed at start of phase 1 or as directed by the WDW Emergency Operations Center. Personnel not in ride-out crew released as soon as possible.

Phase 1
(Storm imminent, take shelter)
Shutdown all activities and immediately take shelter. Fulfill ride-out requirement plans.

Post Storm Phase
Command Centers submit situation reports to WDW Emergency Operations Center. Establish business resumption / recovery schedule. Notify employees through media and cast Member emergency lines of call back as directed by WDW Emergency Operations Center.

[merlinmagic4]

[QUOTE=Strmchsr;1729618]

Weather at WDW - Updated Monday am, August 31, 2008 :mickey:
Today marks my 2 year anniversary of doing this daily thread. So Happy 2 Year's To "Weather At WDW" :party2:

Happy 2 Year Anniversary! :party::party: Thanks for the reports. I know I read them whether I have a trip planned or not!

[mrs.jacksparrow]

:mickey::thumbsup::mickey::thumbsup:A very very big thank you to you and happy anniversary! Wishing you many many more....you do a great thing for all us Disney travlers! :mickey::thumbsup::mickey::thumbsup:

[Crow]

thanks for taking the time to do this.
Ive been looking at it, since I arrive at WDW on Wed

[AJHUNT2]

:party2:
:mickey::thumbsup::mickey::thumbsup:A very very big thank you to you and happy anniversary! Wishing you many many more....you do a great thing for all us Disney travlers! :

Totally agree!:party2:

[luvdiznee]

:marg::congrats:Happy Anniversary. And Thank You for the reports/info. :fingers:

[disneygeek84]

Thank you again Chris for keep our feet on the ground about this storm. I've been watching the news this morning just to see exactly where it is, but they're driving me nuts! So thank you very much for giving us a more realistic view of what's going on down there!

[tink03]

:party: Happy Anniversary to you!:party:
I know that ever since I became a member of the Intercot family I always read your reports daily. Keep up your famous service I know we all appreciate your reports, and I especially will be reading daily and closely we fly out on th 18th to the World!!

:congrats:
Thanks Chris!!

[BronxTigger]

Happy Anniversary!

I agree with you about the media saturation, particularly about weather. I remember in Denver anytime it snowed they would CANCEL other programs so they could go into 24 Hour snow coverage - in Colorado! I lived in the Denver area for 8 years an only once was a snow storm destructive - roofs were collapsing all over the place.

I like the information - to a point. The saturation coverage does nothing but make everybody nervous and agitated.

[pianobabe]

Thank you for all of these reports. Congratulations on your anniversary. It is wonderful to have our own Intercot Weather Center. Keep up the good work.

[Gibbs]

Tropics :fan:

***UPDATED 6:45 am CDT*** - September 1

Let me say up front I am increasingly concerned about the steady stream of hype on weather events in recent years. Every time the weather gets hot in August, it becomes a “life threatening heat wave”. Spring flood events become “something like we have never seen before”. And, this hurricane, Gustav, in recent days has been described as “the storm of the century” and the “mother of all storms”. One national reported called it the “most powerful storm to ever move into the U.S.” All of this, of course, is not true. Maybe it is the constant 24 hour cable news cycle, hopes of politicians (wanting to save their constituents from a horrible tragedy), or the worldview of reporters, but I sure hope this trend doesn’t continue. We have always had hurricanes in the Gulf, hot weather in August, and floods in spring. This is not anything new, you know. I continue to advise that people don’t get their weather information from politicians or reporters. Nice people, but I don’t know of any that have training in atmospheric science. And, for the lunatics that have turned this into a political issue, shame on them. Some of the quotes I have read are simply outrageous.


Chirs, All I can say to that is AMEN!!!:thumbsup: You are right on with that comment. As a 39 year resident of Florida, I've seen quite a few storms come through. We take everyone of them serisously. I get my forcast and intensity information directly form the NHC and STRMCHSR on intercot. I only use local news for local info, such as evacuation orders, goverment and school closings, road and bridge closings, ect... I find disgusting the amount of hype associated with these storms. I remember watching a reporter from a 24 hour weather channel :secret: who was in the middle of a 75 mph hurricane, holding on to a stop sign like we was getting ready to be blown away. He failed to notice an older gentelman behind him walking his dog.:blush:. That was one of the funniest things I've seen.

:congrats: on your 2 year anniversary!!

[Janmac]

Two years! It seems like only yesterday. Where does the time go? :D

I have been appreciating your reports regarding Hannah as some of our extended family group are flying into MCO on Friday afternoon, non stop from Kansas City and one [unspecified] stop from Portland, OR. :thumbsup:

(DH, I and my grandniece are driving down - figure we'll get some shade from Gustav some of the way, between Wednesday and Friday.)

I couldn't agree more about the media hype - interesting Michael Crichton book about that, tho most folks probably think the book is about global warming.

And speaking of media hype, global warming, and serious weather, I saw a program on tv (failed to catch the title) with several fellows (PhD types of various climatological fields) giving their opinions about long term climate and change. One said that while global warming brings changes, it might actually save lives, as more folks die from cold than heat. He said things will change, and not for the better for some areas, but overall, the changes could be beneficial.

In the meantime, we will keep monitoring your weather forecasts - thanks, Chris! :congrats:

Jan

[watch4pixiedust]

:thanks: So Much for 2 yrs of great work! It's a pleasure to be able to come here and read interesting, helpful, real, understandable info about weather in the World. Your expertise and caring come through in your dailey updates and answers to our many questions. Is there an Intercot Award for Excellence?? I'd give it to you! :judge::teach::clappy::hands::tiphat:

[Strmchsr]

Is there an Intercot Award for Excellence?? I'd give it to you! :judge::teach::clappy::hands::tiphat:

You'd have to talk to John about that one. :D

Thanks, everyone. Honestly, it's my pleasure to do it. I wouldn't have done it for pretty much 730 straight days if I didn't love doing it, but I appreciate your appreciation. It makes it worthwhile to know it's a helpful service. :rocks:

[azdisneymom]

Wow 2 years! I, for one, am grateful. Our last trip was in January when that cold front moved through. I was able to pack warmer clothes than I would have normally because of your posts.

Thank you for keeping us up to date on the weather! :thumbsup:

[Mousemates]

thanks for the updates....DW is a bit nervous about the weather for a trip with her mom and sisters (flying into orlando on the seventh).

[Strmchsr]

thanks for the updates....DW is a bit nervous about the weather for a trip with her mom and sisters (flying into orlando on the seventh).

Well, Hannah shouldn't be an issue unless she does something unexpected (possible, but not likely) and will be long gone by the time they fly in. Ike is an unknown right now, but tell her not to worry. Should Ike create problems I'll give you plenty of notice and she'll be able to evaluate the situation then. If they happen to be in WDW during a storm Disney takes VERY good care of their guests during a hurricane and it shouldn't put a damper on things for long.

[iluvdizney2]

I was getting nervous as we are driving down with 2 people who have never gone before, and we have a wedding we are going to as well...I am sure there will be something going on, not hoping for a huricane, but thinking that one may be likely when we get there...we will be driving down and there at WDW the 21-26th.
o well...it could be worse, I could be home in a huricane...instead WDW will be much nicer to get stuck in, if need be.

[blabbermouth]

Congrats on two years!

I'm a newbie, but I'll be flying into mco the morning of the 10th from Seattle, so I'll keep my fingers crossed.

Ike? Like Ike and Tina? Yikes, that could be dangerous! Heehee. Gotta love the hurricane names.

[DisneyDudet]

Congrats on the two year anni!!! Its nice to have a go-to person for some weather questions!

I am now worried about Ike. I'm not worried about it at WDW (except the night of the 12), but for getting to WDW!!! We will leave Thurs, Sept 11 from DFW. Is this the time frame that Ike could possibly be around the US/Caribbean??

[kb3311]

Hello Chris,

I am an new member to the site. :mickey: Happy Anniversary:thumbsup: I am leaving North Carolina this Saturday to drive down to Disney. I might move it up to Friday looking at where Hannah will be on Saturday morning. Anyway, my parents are leaving from Louisiana on Friday to meet us there. My wife and parents are leaving it up to me to make a decision on weither to rescedule or not. I would rather not. Could you give me some insight on what I should do based on the weather?

Thanks
Keith

[BMan62]

Happy (belated) Anniversary!

Keep up the great reports!

Let's hope Ike, Josephine and Invest 99 keep their distance!!!! DW and I are headed to WDW Sept. 16 - 23 and have never had a bad weather trip yet!!!

[AJHUNT2]

Hanna's projected path has now changed on weather.com. Suposed to be leaving on Thursday. Should we be worried about our trip 9/4-7?

[sndral]

"And everyone please welcome to the party Tropical Storm Josephine..."
I'd rather not - she needs to stay out in the atlantic!
Congrats on 2 yrs., it's nice to have a rational take on things rather than the media hype.

[Strmchsr]

Hanna's projected path has now changed on weather.com. Supposed to be leaving on Thursday. Should we be worried about our trip 9/4-7?

No. First off, I don't agree with their change, but secondly, while Hannah will be very near the FL coast Friday morning moving towards a Friday afternoon/evening landfall, WDW will be on the western side which is the "better" side to be on. While Orlando may get some thunderstorms and wind it won't be horrible unless Hannah changes paths and comes over FL.


I am leaving North Carolina this Saturday to drive down to Disney. I might move it up to Friday looking at where Hannah will be on Saturday morning. Anyway, my parents are leaving from Louisiana on Friday to meet us there. My wife and parents are leaving it up to me to make a decision on weither to rescedule or not. I would rather not. Could you give me some insight on what I should do based on the weather?

Hi, Keith! :welcome: to Intercot!!! Getting out Thursday would be best, honestly. Assuming your parents are good in Louisiana (they may need to take I-20 to Birmingham then I-65 down to I-10 and across if I-10 is a problem around New Orleans as it is right now) they should be fine. You have a much bigger issue. It depends on where you're at in NC. I-95 would be a very bad idea. If you can take I-85 or I-20 over to Atlanta and then I-75 south to Orlando on either Thursday (best) or Friday morning you'll be okay. To keep from messing up your Disney trip it honestly would be worth spending a night in Atlanta (the Aquarium is awesome).


Is this the time frame that Ike could possibly be around the US/Caribbean??

Too early to tell, but, yeah it's possible. If Ike is to impact WDW, depending on his speed it could come any time next week between Tuesday and Friday. If he goes into the Gulf that'll throw everything out of whack.


Ike? Like Ike and Tina? Yikes, that could be dangerous! Heehee. Gotta love the hurricane names.

Hey, I just forecasts 'em. I don't names 'em. :D

[disneygeek84]

So, I'm pretty much looking at a storm hitting us on our trip next week then. We leave Texas on Saturday morning to drive down to Florida and plan on arriving at Disney on Sunday afternoon. We were planning on spending Saturday night west of Tallahassee at a KOA in Chattahoochee.

These plans need to change, don't they? I'm not trying to be Debbie Downer or anything, but at this point in time, it looks like I'm not going to be able to hardly drive threw Louisiana. and then once I do get past LA, I'm looking at running into another storm. And if that storm doesn't hit, then I'm looking at spending most of my trip locked up in my resort because I different storm is hitting WDW. Or am I just reading everything wrong?

[Strmchsr]

Based on what is happening right now you should be absolutely fine. I think if you take I-20 across LA and then go down to I-10 in either MS or AL you will have no problems getting there. Hannah will be north of your position and shouldn't create any problems for you unless she changes course (again, possible, but not probable). It's just too early to tell about Ike next week. Yes, a FL landfall with Ike is on the table, but so is Ike going into the Gulf or recurving out to sea. Give it a couple more days to see what Ike does before making any decisions.

[kb3311]

Thanks Chris,

We are leaving out of Raleigh NC, and I think we have decided to leave very early Friday morning and take the route around through Atlanta, and try to drive all the way through. My parents only concern is finding gas to get them over here from Lake Charles Louisiana. I think we should all be fine. I will be waiting on an IKE update from you in the coming days. Thanks for all of your help. I really did not think I would be able to find any help on this subject.

Thanks Again
Keith

[Susie in NM]

Thanks Chris for all the great weather info and congrats to you on your 2 year anniversary.

Our vacation is still in the "voo doo" area. We will be flying to Florida on the 11th. Here is hoping Ike and Josephine don't decide to visit Florida.

[DisneyDudet]

Thanks Chris for all the great weather info and congrats to you on your 2 year anniversary.

Our vacation is still in the "voo doo" area. We will be flying to Florida on the 11th. Here is hoping Ike and Josephine don't decide to visit Florida.

We fly out the same day... I am tempted to make a shirt that says... "Intercot says... Take a hike, Ike!" I just want to GET there... and on time.. and if my MNSSHP isn't a wash out, I will be counting my DIsney blessings.

Right now, if it falls into Florida, or the Gulf, I may have issues.

[pianobabe]

I'm concerned about Ike too. We are suppose to fly out of Charlotte on the 10th. Our flight leaves out at 7:45 am. I just want to get there too (we have tickets for La Nouba on the 10th). I am tempted to just say forget flying and just leave Tuesday night and drive.

[Vito]

Congrats on the 2 year anniversary! :D

Thanks for continuing to keep us up to date. :thumbsup:

[JIMINY13]

Congrats on 2 years! It is great to be able to be kept in the loop everyday. We will be leaving out of NY on Sunday morning, so I think that we will be okay. Do you think that Ike will create havoc at WDW 9/7-12? Do you think we will encounter any problems out on the evening of the 12th?

[AJHUNT2]

:party2::clappy::cheer:
You have made my day! We're flying out of Nashville tomorrow and return on the 7th. I can deal w/ a little rain and windy. Glad we don't have to use our backup plan. We had to cancel our trip last year and DID NOT want to do it again.

[Strmchsr]

We will be leaving out of NY on Sunday morning, so I think that we will be okay. Do you think that Ike will create havoc at WDW 9/7-12? Do you think we will encounter any problems out on the evening of the 12th?

Hannah will be moving up towards NYC on Saturday/Sunday so don't be surprised if there are some delays.

Too early to tell on Ike right now. The latest models show no impact on WDW, but that's far from set. If Ike were to impact WDW it would probably be towards the end of next week, Sept 11-13, but that's a huge if right now. The models are all over the place with this storm and given the possibility of a huge upper trough around that time I think Ike will end up as an Atlantic coast storm, but I just can't say for sure until probably Sunday or Monday.

[Strmchsr]

This is why I so was ticked off at all of the hyperbole coming out of the politicians with Gustav. People are going to get killed next time because of attitudes like this idiot caused by government overkill:


Next time, we won’t leave
Posted by James O’Byrne, staff writer, Times-Picayune

The next time, my family will stay. I’m sure that Gov. Bobby Jindal, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, Mayor Ray Nagin, Jefferson Parish President Aaron Broussard and all the other public officials mean well. I’m sure they thought it was a good idea to panic people into leaving. I’m sure they believe it’s in the public’s best interest to stay away while they clean up.
But the evacuation of the metro area in advance of Gustav, and the subsequent policies regarding re-entry, will guarantee that in the next major storm to strike the region - which may occur in a matter of days or weeks - many more people will be at risk. The slightest bit of vision, combined with an open ear to the anger and frustration of this hurricane-weary citizenry, would make the government officials responsible realize that they helped to make this happen.

Under Louisiana law, it is still legally not possible to forcibly remove people from their property and make them leave in advance of an approaching storm. So every evacuation becomes an implicit contract between the officials and the public. You tell us the truth, and the risks as the scientists and forecasters see it. We’ll try to make good decisions for the sake of our families.
When that contract is broken, as I believe it was in the case of Gustav, then the tradeoff is that fewer people leave the next time. Here’s three rules that public officials must follow if they want people to evacuate in significant numbers again:

Rule No. 1: Don’t exaggerate and force a panic. It is not supposed to be the business of public officials to panic people with disinformation, misinformation, or downright lies. To call Gustav “the mother of all storms” 900 miles wide, as Mayor Nagin did, was demonstrably untrue, and an insult to Katrina and all who suffered through that storm. Gustav had hurricane force winds extending 50 miles from its center. Katrina, by comparison, had hurricane force winds extending 105 miles from the center. It was 50 percent more powerful, and carved a path of destruction more than twice as wide as Gustav.

Mayor Nagin on Saturday night, while foreshadowing his plan to call for a mandatory evacuation on Sunday, proclaimed that everyone should “leave now.” It worked, but how shocking was it that Interstate 10 east and Interstate 59 became complete gridlock, and a place of suffering for people trying to escape the storm? At the time Nagin made his breathless proclamation, the National Hurricane Center had already issued an advisory describing how forces of shear and dry air were inhibiting Gustav’s strength, and how all of the computer models — all of them — were showing the storm moving west of New Orleans.

To one degree or another, this pattern repeated itself across the metro area. Public officials succeeded in panicking the populace into fleeing - this time. But such a tack will not succeed as well the next. There are those who will say that people must heed the warning to leave, because even though Gustav missed New Orleans, the next one might not. It could be so much worse the next time, they argue. That may be true.

But the one commodity that is absolutely essential in communication between officialdom and its populace in times of crisis is credibility. It was cast aside this time in favor of hyperbole and exaggeration calculated to induce panic. The fact that it worked so well this time almost guarantees that the next time it won’t.

Rule No. 2: Don’t respond to people’s criticisms and complaints about how things went by telling them this is how it’s supposed to be. Sixteen hours to Birmingham, 23 hours to Tuscaloosa, 14 hours to Pensacola. In many cases, these horrific journeys were made with infants and the elderly, trapped on the interstate, blocked from exiting for hours and hours, with no hope of food, gas or bathroom facilities. Yet when public officials, standing in their air-conditioned Emergency Operations Centers, were questioned about what went wrong, they responded that everything worked well, and this is how it’s supposed to be. Back to that contract. If people don’t actually have to leave, and they are telling their public officials that this evacuation did not work well, the correct response to that message is not, “You’re wrong, it did.” Because if there is no hope of improvement in the time it takes to get out of harm’s way, then the next time many thousands won’t go.

Rule No. 3: You have to let people return to their property as soon as humanly possible. Yes, I know that in many cases, there is still some modicum of danger on the streets, what with tree limbs and power poles and all manner of difficulties, just as it’s dangerous to live here in the first place, dangerous to evacuate, dangerous to return on highways clogged with angry and frustrated citizens.

News flash: We know it’s dangerous to live here. We accept the possibility of no gas, no power, no readily available food. We’re Katrina survivors. We’ll figure it out.
But if the enduring image of Gustav is a U.S. soldier with an M-16 denying a citizen the right to return to his home, then you can pretty much write off the next “mandatory” evacuation. Leaving your home in advance of a storm is an extraordinarily stressful, difficult, traumatic and expensive proposition. The one thing that must be honored is that people must be allowed to return to their homes as soon as humanly possible.

As a journalist, I spent the past two days driving around reporting on the storm. And by Tuesday afternoon, this city was as safe as it needed to be. Indeed, all those tree branches and debris would be picked up and stacked neatly on the curb by lunchtime on Wednesday if people had been allowed to come home.

I fully appreciate the risks of letting my family stay. But I have to weigh that risk against the alternate risks, of getting trapped in an endless evacuation traffic jam, of being stranded on a highway far from help, of not being able to return in a timely manner, to secure our property and come back to as much of a normal life as possible.

New Orleans is my home. I love it, and I choose to keep living here. But if you are a public official who wants me to leave for the next storm, then you have to hear what I am telling you. It’s time to rewrite the contract.
•••••••

[disneygeek84]

What bugs me the most about all the hype with the Hurricanes, is that they only talk about New Orleans. And I'm not saying that what happened there isn't horrible. It was.

But does anyone remember about a week after Katrina hit, a hurricane by the name of Rita hit the west side of Louisiana? No. Why? Because everyone was talking about Katrina still. I grew up in Lake Charles, right in the heal of Louisiana. I still have many friends that live there, and some of their homes were lost to Hurricane Rita. My old next door neighbor's house was completely ruined because of flood waters, along with all of furniture and most of photos (which she had a ton of). The flood waters came up, and then went back down, but no one was allowed to come back in to the city for at least 3 days after the storm because of all the trees that were everyone and the powerlines that were down. Her whole house was nothing but mold and mildew by the time she was finally able to get back there. The house that I grew up in had a pine tree land on the backside of it. Not sure if they stayed there during the storm or not, but it's quite upsetting to think about the house you grew up being damaged. I got married the summer after those storms hit and no one from Lake Charles was at my wedding because most of them were still in shock from the storm. Most were still trying to rebuild their homes and their lives. And it wasn't just New Orleans that was evacuated this past week. It was the whole gulf coast, which included Lake Charles. They were terrified. They didn't know what was going to happen and if they were going to lose their homes once again. But the only place that my news here in the D/FW area talked about, was New Orleans (which Gustav barely even hit).

It angers me because yes, Katrina did horrible damage and the city was in ruins. But they weren't the only place to be hit by a hurricane ever in the history of time. And they won't be the last.


Sorry, I had to vent for a minute about all of that. Continue on with your original business.

[Melanie]

It angers me because yes, Katrina did horrible damage and the city was in ruins. But they weren't the only place to be hit by a hurricane ever in the history of time. And they won't be the last.


I totally agree! Great post.

Congrats on 2 years, Chris. Thanks for this service you provide our great members here at INTERCOT! :thumbsup:

[Mousemates]

Congrats on the two year anni!!! Its nice to have a go-to person for some weather questions!

I am now worried about Ike. I'm not worried about it at WDW (except the night of the 12), but for getting to WDW!!! We will leave Thurs, Sept 11 from DFW. Is this the time frame that Ike could possibly be around the US/Caribbean??

dittos on the two years....also dittos on the worried about Ike (looks like it blew up into a four last night)...DW will flying to WDW this weekend...hoping the storm will head up off the coast and curve out to sea.

[RPHX2NC]

Yikes! We are driving from Raleigh NC. Leaving Sept 19 for a cruise out of JAX Sept 20 to the Bahamas. We return the 25th for 3 nights at WDW. I can't control the weather.

[JIMINY13]

Ok, so Ike is now a cat 3 but now predicted to be a major threat to Florida. If so when and how bad do you think it will effect WDW? I say go but the Significant Other says, Maybe not :confused: HELP

[caryfer1733]

Flying to WDW tomorrow we're so excited but a little concerned, what are the chances of Ike closing the parks if it makes landfall in Florida?

[Strmchsr]

Ok, so Ike is now a cat 3 but now predicted to be a major threat to Florida. If so when and how bad do you think it will effect WDW? I say go but the Significant Other says, Maybe not :confused: HELP


Flying to WDW tomorrow we're so excited but a little concerned, what are the chances of Ike closing the parks if it makes landfall in Florida?

It's a really tough call right now. I'm about to do a full update and that will be up by 9 am this morning. Right now it looks like IF Ike impacts WDW that will come on Wednesday. Will it close the parks? Can't say right now. My gut feeling is that Ike may come inland around Miami, but I really think this upper trough will pick Ike up and sweep him NE before the impact at WDW becomes too great. He's probably going to be a major hurricane when he nears Miami, so if he does stay inland then WDW will definitely get some impact, but keep a watch on this post. I'm trying to update a couple of times a day and by Sunday we should have a better handle on any potential WDW impact.

[disneygeek84]

It's a really tough call right now. I'm about to do a full update and that will be up by 9 am this morning. Right now it looks like IF Ike impacts WDW that will come on Wednesday. Will it close the parks? Can't say right now. My gut feeling is that Ike may come inland around Miami, but I really think this upper trough will pick Ike up and sweep him NE before the impact at WDW becomes too great. He's probably going to be a major hurricane when he nears Miami, so if he does stay inland then WDW will definitely get some impact, but keep a watch on this post. I'm trying to update a couple of times a day and by Sunday we should have a better handle on any potential WDW impact.

This makes me a little nervous because we're leaving in the morning at 5am and won't have access to the internet while we're gone (We're staying a value resort and don't want to pay $10 a day to get the internet). I guess I'm just going to have to make my parents check while I'm gone and let me know what's going on. Thanks again, Chris!

[Strmchsr]

This makes me a little nervous because we're leaving in the morning at 5am and won't have access to the internet while we're gone (We're staying a value resort and don't want to pay $10 a day to get the internet). I guess I'm just going to have to make my parents check while I'm gone and let me know what's going on. Thanks again, Chris!

I hope you have a safe trip. WDW will keep you updated while you're there. They have a WDW weather feed on the TV in your room or, as you mentioned, have your parents keep a check here. I'll be updating as often as there's something to update.

[AmBo]

Thanks for the update Strmchsr! I'm keeping an eye on this thread and hope Ike doesn't ruin our vacation next week :(:ill:

[tinksmom02]

Thanks for the daily updates, Strmchsr. Every morning I nervously check this thread, as our trip is slowly coming out of voodooland and into actual predictionland.

Appreciate your hard work!!

[disneymad1998]

Chris, thanks for your daily updates - we are due to fly from the UK on 18/sept and have avidly read your reports.

Fingers crossed that nothing comes in behind Ike / Josephine over the next 2 weeks......

We were there for Hurricane Jeanne and that was scary especially coming from the UK and had never experienced anything other than a few gales!! but needless to say WDW took great care of us and made us feel very safe

Thanks Chris and WDW (See you soon)
:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Fingers crossed that nothing comes in behind Ike / Josephine over the next 2 weeks......

I hope you have a wonderful visit to the USA!!!

It is, of course, impossible to say whether we'll see anything coming behind Josephine (who has now dissipated and doesn't look to reform). However, the pulse that caused all these storms at one time has gone away and it's entirely possible that things will calm down for a while!
Peace,
Chris

[Grim Grinning Marathon Runner]

Hey and War Eagle/Roll Tide to you, Strmchaser! I'm just a little bit north of you in Helena, outside of Birmingham.

What do you think about this storm now? It looks like it's following very close to the path of Gustavo, most of the models keep pushing it further and further west as we go. It also looks like it's losing a little strength, which is a very good thing.

Of course, as with all hurricanes, everything is subject to change this far out.

What timeframe do you think it'll make landfall, wherever it goes?

[Strmchsr]

Roll Tide for DW's sake (though I'm a Miss State Bulldog!) :D I'm always glad to see another Alabama person on here, especially someone right up I-65!

You're right that Ike is right on Gustav's footsteps, which is a good thing because all the upwelling caused by Gustav will limit Ike's ability to intensify. Where he ends up is in total chaos right now, though. It all depends on this series of short-wave troughs that are developing this week. The one that was forecast to pick Ike up and take him over FL is being REALLY slow to develop and may miss Ike. If that happens then TX or LA will be the place of landfall. If the trough picks Ike up but he breaks loose, it'll be AL, and if it does get him then it'll be FL. So, it'll be Tuesday probably before we really know where he's going.

[BronxTigger]

It is, of course, impossible to say whether we'll see anything coming behind Josephine (who has now dissipated and doesn't look to reform). However, the pulse that caused all these storms at one time has gone away and it's entirely possible that things will calm down for a while!
Peace,
Chris

That would be nice! My MIL and FIL were going to be in the Dominican Republic for 2 weeks beginning Aug 31 but they changed the trip to the end of Sept. Thank God they did. DR and Haiti have been hit by everything coming through lately.

[watch4pixiedust]

Chris, I hope you have a wonderful, restful trip to the World on the 29th, with the best weather ever! Goodness knows you deserve a fun rest after all the extra work these storms have thrown at you! :waycool: :tink:

[Strmchsr]

Thank you so much!! And I hope you did well through Hannah. I know NC REALLY needed the rain as badly as we did with Fay last month.

[luvdiznee]

Fingers crossed that nothing comes in behind Ike / Josephine over the next 2 weeks......

We were there for Hurricane Jeanne and that was scary especially coming from the UK and had never experienced anything other than a few gales!! but needless to say WDW took great care of us and made us feel very safe


:mickey:

Same here, hoping nothing behind Josephine. :(And yes, also endured Hurricane Jeanne. :thedolls:

[luvdiznee]

It is, of course, impossible to say whether we'll see anything coming behind Josephine (who has now dissipated and doesn't look to reform). However, the pulse that caused all these storms at one time has gone away and it's entirely possible that things will calm down for a while!
Peace,
Chris

:fingers::grouphug:

[tink03]

Thank You so much Chris for these wonderful weather reports . I can finally calm down and start packing my things! I check your reports everyday! We leave in 10 days and its nice to see that everything is starting to calm down!!




Sept 18-28 POR Surprising my 2 sons

[watch4pixiedust]

Thank you so much!! And I hope you did well through Hannah. I know NC REALLY needed the rain as badly as we did with Fay last month.

Thanks. In our area (the Triangle, located in the middle of the state), we didn't have any real problems with Hannah, the wind wasn't bad, and we got 6-7 inches of rain, again, not bad. There was only minimal flooding in a few spots here. I imagine the western part of the state would like to have had the rain the eastern part got, but, as we well know - we can't control the weather! :D

[Vito]

Ike is currently projected to hit southern Texas early Saturday morning. Obviously since this is still 4 days away it's not certain yet.

But as of right now, based on what Chris has said and the current projected track and all the data, WDW looks to be definitely out of the woods, and forecasts have nothing more than a bit of above average amounts of rain for the next couple days.

They've stopped tracking the remnants of Josephine on the NHC website, so I'm guessing that it's a good bet that one is gone for good.

If I've learned anything at all studying tropical weather websites laboriously over the past few weeks ;), the next two weeks or so look to be mostly normal/typical Florida late summer weather, meaning there shouldn't be any tropical storm activity threatening Florida. Hopefully that also means nothing more than the occasional t-storm (which would be good news for me since I'm leaving in 4 days!).

Thoughts and prayers definitely going out right now to those who Ike has already done some damage to (looks like parts of Cuba got hit pretty hard), and also to those who remain in Ike's potential path. Stay safe!

[Strmchsr]

If I've learned anything at all studying tropical weather websites laboriously over the past few weeks ;), the next two weeks or so look to be mostly normal/typical Florida late summer weather, meaning there shouldn't be any tropical storm activity threatening Florida.

That's probably true, though never definite. The pulse that caused all these storms is dying down rapidly so that's good news for the tropical scene over the next few weeks.

However, if I've learned anything at all studying tropical weather (and all other kinds of weather) laboriously for the last 18 years it's that we don't know nearly as much about the weather as we sometimes think we do and as soon as we forget that Mother Nature reminds us. :D

[tinksmom02]

So, I'll finally call it - no impact on WDW. You can all breathe easier now.

:woohoo::clappy::whew:

Thanks, Chris! Just what I've been waiting to hear!

I really appreciate all of your updates!

[kittysomerville]

It's good to know Ike won't be around WDW for our vacation next week (14th-21st). I'm still kinda holding my breath about it since I'm flying out of the New Orleans airport on the 14th. Doesn't look like it'll hit close enought to affect New Orleans, but I don't know! :fingers:

[Strmchsr]

It's good to know Ike won't be around WDW for our vacation next week (14th-21st). I'm still kinda holding my breath about it since I'm flying out of the New Orleans airport on the 14th. Doesn't look like it'll hit close enought to affect New Orleans, but I don't know! :fingers:

Ike is favoring the southern track and shouldn't bother New Orleans at all. However, should Ike brush New Orleans he should still be done before you leave.

[Vito]

That's probably true, though never definite. The pulse that caused all these storms is dying down rapidly so that's good news for the tropical scene over the next few weeks.

However, if I've learned anything at all studying tropical weather (and all other kinds of weather) laboriously for the last 18 years it's that we don't know nearly as much about the weather as we sometimes think we do and as soon as we forget that Mother Nature reminds us. :DLOL Thanks Chris. My only reasoning was that if something was coming in the next week to two weeks, we'd see it forming now. Hopefully that ends up holding true and no mystery storm pops up out of nowhere!

Thanks for the updates :D

[kittysomerville]

Ike is favoring the southern track and shouldn't bother New Orleans at all. However, should Ike brush New Orleans he should still be done before you leave.

Thanks Chris! Your soothing words are better than a xanax! haha! :D

[mommy2lg]

I am scheduled to fly out of Houston Intercontinental on Sunday am. Do you think that we'll have any problems?:(

[Strmchsr]

LOL Thanks Chris. My only reasoning was that if something was coming in the next week to two weeks, we'd see it forming now. Hopefully that ends up holding true and no mystery storm pops up out of nowhere!

Thanks for the updates :D

You're probably right about that. Because the Gulf has been worked over by Gustav and now Ike the upwelling in the Gulf will tend to temper any formation there. Most storms this time of year come off the African coast. That's not 100% the case, but probably about 75%, so I agree with you that there probably won't be anything soon.

[Strmchsr]

I am scheduled to fly out of Houston Intercontinental on Sunday am. Do you think that we'll have any problems?:(

:welcome: to Intercot!!!!

Well, it looks like Ike is going to come ashore early, early Saturday morning somewhere around Corpus Christi. This morning's NHC track have Ike around Waco by 1 am Sunday. The models aren't all in agreement about where Ike comes ashore, and a million things can happen between now and Sunday, as Ike has already shown, but given what I'm seeing right now I don't think you'll have any problems getting out. By Sunday morning Ike should be weak enough and far enough north to not cause Houston too many problems. The only problem I could forsee right now is if they cancel flights on Saturday and are trying to put people on flights on Sunday.

[Vito]

You're probably right about that. Because the Gulf has been worked over by Gustav and now Ike the upwelling in the Gulf will tend to temper any formation there. Most storms this time of year come off the African coast. That's not 100% the case, but probably about 75%, so I agree with you that there probably won't be anything soon.Yay, I maybe learned something! Thanks, Chris :D

Let's hope that there's no more storms for a while, not just for the sake of our vacations, but for everyone's safety!

[disneymad1998]

Hi Chris,

We are heading from the UK to WDW next week (18/9) - I had a look on the NHC website and see 2 yellow blobs that are Tropical Cyclone formations - Can you fill me in on what these are??

Panicky Disneymad1998
:confused:

[Strmchsr]

No reason to panic! Those yellow blobs are tropical waves (a very loosely organized collection of thunderstorms around a central low pressure system) which could potentially, at some point, develop into a tropical system. Yellow means there's a low chance (less than 25%) that this system will strengthen into a tropical system in the next 48 hours. The first one is the remnants of Josephine. If any development occurs there it would be out of the way before you arrived. The second is a tropical wave going through very unfavorable conditions so we'll have to see if it survives that before deciding if it might become something. No reason to worry though. Relax and have a good trip.

[Gregandmel]

Ok Chris - help me out here. I've been following the extended weather forecast (up to 15 days out) for our upcoming Oct. 5-11 trip (today is Friday Sept. 26th) and I've been SO excited to see that the temps are dipping. But now on one of the weather forecasts this morning, it looks like it HEATS UP starting Oct. 5th and gets back to humid and upper 80's (instead of the lovely upper 70's and lower 80's like I was hoping for). The heat is horrid on me, which is why I planned for this time of year. What do your indications say at this point? Is there a heat wave coming through during that time??? Help!! :-) Thank ya!

[Strmchsr]

That's the problem with "voodooland" (the time beyond the 7 days). It's always changing. I know what you mean. For a while the models teased me with low 80s or upper 70s for this coming week during our trip and now it looks like that won't pan out.

Now, in answer to your direct question, yeah, in looking at the models this morning it shows a bit of a high pressure bubble building over WDW around October 5 and lasting a few days. But this is just one model run and that is in contrast to what the models have shown the last few days. That said, the average high for early to mid October is still around 90, so even mid 80s is below normal.

I'd say the warmer temps makes more sense to me from a climatological standpoint. I've been very skeptical of the long range models from the start. It's always possible that a big trough breaks through and drops cooler air early, but generally you don't see the temps in the 70s at WDW until November.

Still, this isn't certain yet. Give it a couple of more days to see what the models say and have a good trip no matter what!

[Gregandmel]

Ugh - Ok - thanks for your insight. I knew it was going to be hotter than KC when I booked the trip (it's been a nice cool 80 here in KC for quite some time) so I was hoping for the best that the temps might dip before we left. Guess I just need to get back into the "hot" mindset before we leave. Maybe we'll get lucky and it'll change in the next 7-10 days, but that's what t-shirts are for, right? Thanks again! I anxiously await your updated forecast everyday!! :-)

[Tick-Tock]

Chris, I just wanted to thank you for your "voodooland" comments on any upcoming activity, even activity that doesn't impact WDW. We're heading to NYC next week for a New England cruise and your comments have been really helpful to me for that trip. So thanks!

[MinnieMommie]

We will be in Tampa Oct 5-7 and then at DW Oct 7-10. You are right - all the models are all over the place and change every day. When do you think we will be able to count on what is being forecast? Maybe by Oct 3rd we will have a good idea of what the 5th through 10th will bring? What are your thoughts? :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

We will be in Tampa Oct 5-7 and then at DW Oct 7-10. You are right - all the models are all over the place and change every day. When do you think we will be able to count on what is being forecast? Maybe by Oct 3rd we will have a good idea of what the 5th through 10th will bring? What are your thoughts? :mickey:

It depends on when all the models settle down. However, since there's no skill at all beyond 7 days (the models just don't have the resolution to be very accurate that far out) I'd say end o the week before you'll know for that entire time frame.

[MinnieMommie]

Thank you much and let's hope for the best. I have told my family that rain or shine we will have fun and that we are fortunate just to have the opportunity to visit. :mickey: