WDW Weather Forecast - June 30-July 16, 2008

[Strmchsr]

Each day in June, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment. If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Monday pm, June 30, 2008 :mickey:
A high of 92 today with thunderstorms popping up all over the place. Some of those could be locally strong. That, in a nutshell, is your forecast for the next two weeks. Some days, like tomorrow through Thursday, the rain chances will be a little higher than normal, but you can pretty much expect every day through July 16 highs 90-93 with scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

The question is what will the trough do. As I mentioned yesterday, the models have been flip flopping. They are now showing, beginning around July 8-9 the trough de-amplifying and a ridge then building in by about July 12, but then the trough comes back on July 16. IF this is the case, then bump the temps I mentioned above to 92-95 for highs beginning around July 9 through July 16. Rain chances would still exist each afternoon, but thunderstorm coverage would be less than it will be over these next 7 days. So, basically, still not much confidence in the voodooland forecast, so we'll watch and see what happens.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
Relatively quiet for a change. A slight risk through tonight for SE Georgia and the Florida Peninsula, as well as part of West Virginia. The slight risk tomorrow shifts all the way to Montana, North Dakota and Northern Minnesota.

Tropics :fan:
No development expected for the next several days, although there are several tropical waves moving westward over the open Atlantic.

[Nascfan]

Thanks for the updates. :thumbsup:

I appreciate them, and will even more so as our trip draws nearer.:mickey:

[hoop de do]

We will be there Saturday (7th) thru the (14th). Thanks for the update. Looks like I better carry our Mickey ponchos for those pm showers. I appreciate your time to keep us updated.
:thanks: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

Looks like I better carry our Mickey ponchos for those pm showers.

You're quite welcome!

As for the ponchos, while you may want to carry them, many times those afternoon thunderstorms (when they hit) are pretty intense, so it's better to get inside for the short while they are overhead as opposed to walking around in them. The lightning can be especially bad.

[buzznwoodysmom]

Chris,

Thanks so much for continuing to do the WDW weather forecast. I check here each time I have a vacation approaching and your info has been mostly dead on. Great job!!!!

We are headed to Vero Beach next Wednesday (June 11) and will be there until we head for WDW on Sunday (June 15). Can you tell me what kind of weather we should expect in Vero during that time?

Thanks!

[Strmchsr]

...your info has been mostly dead on.

We are headed to Vero Beach next Wednesday (June 11) and will be there until we head for WDW on Sunday (June 15). Can you tell me what kind of weather we should expect in Vero during that time?

Mostly? Well, I guess I can't get it right all the time. :D;)

Vero Beach will have a nice sea breeze and be a couple of degrees cooler than Orlando. Also, a slightly higher chance of afternoon thunderstorms. I'd say look for highs 88-90 while you're there with about a 40% chance of a thunderstorm each afternoon.

Have a great trip, Denise!!!:mickey:

[buzznwoodysmom]

Mostly? Well, I guess I can't get it right all the time. :D;)



OK, I shouldn't have said mostly!;) Of course your forecasts are ALWAYS on the money! That sound better? :thumbsup:


Thanks for the Vero forecast. We can't wait. We've been wanting to visit Vero Beach for a while now and are hoping for pleasent beach weather. Hopefully the afternoon thunderstorms aren't long!

[Strmchsr]

OK, I shouldn't have said mostly!;) Of course your forecasts are ALWAYS on the money! That sound better? :thumbsup:


Thanks for the Vero forecast. We can't wait. We've been wanting to visit Vero Beach for a while now and are hoping for pleasent beach weather. Hopefully the afternoon thunderstorms aren't long!

lol I wish they were. If that were the case I could retire quite wealthy and keep being a pastor at no charge. :D

The afternoon thunderstorms are generally less than an hour. On the beach they provide fantastic pictures and the potential to see a waterspout which is really awesome. Just be sure to stay sheltered whenever you see lightning.

[Aurora]

Thanks Chris! We're headed down tomorrow!

We haven't been at WDW in summertime for more than 10 years! I can't wait for the thunderstorms!! :blush:

[BluewaterBrad]

Thanks bro! I will be playing the back nine at Magnolia Fri. afternoon. Probably will hit those afternoon showers!:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

I wouldn't doubt it! Be sure you find some cover until they pass over. We don't need you recreating a Caddyshack scene. :D

[indytraveler]

Arriving next Wed. 6-18 -6-25. Are these thunderstorms you're talking about lasting longer than 2-3 hrs. but dumping 1-2" of rain?

What about forecast for the East Coast beaches prefered Cocoa Beach

[Strmchsr]

Arriving next Wed. 6-18 -6-25. Are these thunderstorms you're talking about lasting longer than 2-3 hrs. but dumping 1-2" of rain?

What about forecast for the East Coast beaches prefered Cocoa Beach

The thunderstorms generally last less than an hour, but they can dump up to 1-2" (though usually about .5") if you get under a stationary one. The east coast beaches will be a degree or two cooler, but will also see scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

[Pixie Power]

Chris,

This is a GREAT thread! Thanks for the daily updates. We leave bright & early next Tuesday (6/24) and are there until late on Tuesday (7/1) s I'll be checking in daily until then. :mickey:

[brertosh]

Thanks for keeping us updated. Couple of questions tho. Since I have never been to Florida I am not sure about the weather, I hear so much about these thunderstorms. We will be arriving on Monday June 23, so is it usually pretty sunny skies thru out the day until these storms come in? Do they usually leave in a hurry and is it sunny again after? I know we are going to have a great time but it would be nice if it weren't cloudy and rainy the whole time!

[Strmchsr]

The general pattern is for mostly sunny mornings (sometimes there's a little fog early, but it burns off quickly). By afternoon you'll see clouds building, but it won't be overcast. When the thunderstorms start firing off you'll see dark clouds building for 30ish minutes, then the thunderstorm will hit. Once it's moved on the skies clear back up again. So, definitely not cloudy all day.

[Young@Heart]

Tropics :fan:
While it doesn't look like anything will develop for the rest of this week the models are beginning to show a nervous Gulf again by the middle of next week. Right now, nothing is shown as hitting Florida, and we never believe these things until something actually develops, but it appears that the pattern is starting to look more favorable for tropical development by mid-July.

Does this mean a tropical storm coming in (possibly) during July? We won't be going down until the first week of Aug, but I'm hoping it won't be too bad then. We drive down from MA, and last time (June 2006) we drove through a huge storm for hours on end. It was so bad we couldn't even see the highway at times and had to pull over. I'm hoping for mostly clear weather (other than the rainy afternoons, of course) this trip. :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Does this mean a tropical storm coming in (possibly) during July? We won't be going down until the first week of Aug, but I'm hoping it won't be too bad then. We drive down from MA, and last time (June 2006) we drove through a huge storm for hours on end. It was so bad we couldn't even see the highway at times and had to pull over. I'm hoping for mostly clear weather (other than the rainy afternoons, of course) this trip. :mickey:

Finally, I'm back. Sorry for the delay in answering your question. Tropical storms are always possible during the season. Right now there's no specific threat out there. I was mostly commenting that the overall pattern seems to be shifting to conditions more favorable for tropical development, but that by no means says anything actually will happen. I'll give a more detailed update this afternoon.

[djsharp]

What do the parks do during these thunderstorms/downpours? Also, do you get the thunderstorms without the rain like we get here sometimes? If they are anything like what we get here is MS, when the rain dumps, (and yes I mean Dumps) you can be drenched in a matter of seconds all the way through to the skin. Granted, they don't last long here, but man, it's like turning on the shower head full blast! Do they shut down rides? Other alternative waiting areas?

[Young@Heart]

Finally, I'm back. Sorry for the delay in answering your question. Tropical storms are always possible during the season. Right now there's no specific threat out there. I was mostly commenting that the overall pattern seems to be shifting to conditions more favorable for tropical development, but that by no means says anything actually will happen. I'll give a more detailed update this afternoon.

Thanks! We're usually there during this week, and are used to the heat, humidity, and T-storms (saw some great sideways lightening last time!). This year will be our first visit in Aug (the first week), and I'm anxious about storms.