What are your predictions for the economy?

[TikiGoddess]

Hi all,

I was visiting with my dad yesterday and he had some dire predictions for the economy in the next year.

What do you think will happen in the next year or so?

How high do you think gas prices will go?

(and since this is a Disney board...)

How do you think the economy will change people's vacation habits?

Kathy

[Speedy1998]

Alot depends on the November election. If one of the Dems get elected to the White House taxes will be raise, and the economy will get worse. If Mcain get elected it is harder to say what will happen may get worse may get better, but at least he has not promised to raise our taxes like Obama and Clinton have.

Gas prices will continue to rise for a year or two, then they will drop sharply, as all the new drill ships that are being built come online and finish drilling new wells in the Gulf of Mexico, and the North Sea.

[princessjojo]

Gas prices will continue to rise for a year or two, then they will drop sharply, as all the new drill ships that are being built come online and finish drilling new wells in the Gulf of Mexico, and the North Sea.
That's a great thought, but one I don't see happening. But if you mean by sharply, going from $7-8/gallon back to $4/gallon that's a sharp drop, but still too high. I remember paying $.75/gallon and that was wonderful. But to drop back to $2 would be acceptable.

[thrillme]

We've sorta been here before. I think we have a "gas bubble" (uh...no pun intended about that) but I think it's going to break eventually. I really don't forsee $2.00 gasoline again but I do see $3.00

I would LOVE to say we've learned a lesson as a whole world but we haven't. The gas bubble will break and gas will go down but while it's down will we start converting to alternative fuel sources...probably not.

[diz_girl]

As far as vacation habits, we normally take an annual trip to a specific place in Canada that we love. Our visits may decrease in frequency or duration, as the loonie has surpassed the dollar, making our normal trip almost unaffordable, as what used to cost $2000/wk five years ago now costs $3500/wk due to currency fluctuations. We'll just take more trips in the U.S.

That being said...

This is a consumption-based culture and we are encouraged to buy, buy, buy. Since wages haven't kept pace with inflation, people have run up their credit cards and/or tapped into the equity of their homes to fill the gap. And thanks to the greed-fueled lending/housing boom and the subsqeuent bust, the credit markets are going to be tight for a while, so they can't borrow more to maintain their lifestyle. There are a lot of financially uneducated and many financial irresponsible people out there, so they live their lives on credit. Now that credit is drying up, so they can't spend like they normally do and that hurts retailers. The auto market is especially hurting.

In the meantime, food prices have gone up, because commodities prices (both food and natural resources) have gone way up. It costs so much more to transport everything that we've already seen rising prices creep into everything else in our lives. Thankfully, I drive a very fuel-efficient vehicle and have a very short commute, so I'm not hurting when I fill up the tank.

When I read that many food banks are seeing fewer donations and higher demand, and about mothers who have to thin out their baby's formula because food banks are distribulting fewer cans of formula, it's not a good sign.

It looks bad, but I hope that I'm wrong.

[PirateLover]

Hi all,

I was visiting with my dad yesterday and he had some dire predictions for the economy in the next year.

My grandfather has been predicting that we were headed towards another depression for as long as I can remember. But, he was a product of the Great Depression, and I think is predisposed to look at the negative. Things aren't looking great right now, but it seems like things tend to work themselves out in the end. Unless the new president does something crazy, I think we'll be ok...

[Dakota Rose]

I don't see things becoming as dire as the Great Depression, but I do think we have a healthy recession on our hands. Like my dad says, "what goes up must come down." Our country has been living high on the hog for a decade and now it's time for it to right itself. Despite inflation, people are still shopping, and buying wherever there's a deal to be had. But that's probably just postponing the inevitable. On the other hand, the media has been crying recession for awhile now...so maybe this too is just another farce.

There are still good jobs to be had. And for those who are solvent things will be okay. I think that a lot of people will scale back their vacations to things like camping and local vacation spots. I, too, think gas prices are going to level off. When and to what amount I dont' know. I think anything below $3 is unrealistic though dreamy. :cloud9: Until they level off, though, everything's gonna be rough.

Personally, I'm holding my breath. I don't think the immediate future holds much promise, but in the long run, we'll be okay. I hope. :fingers:

[JPL]

I think after the election things will start to level out and we will have a better idea where exactly we stand.

[Here we go again...]

I have seen the economy take a nose dive many times over the years and it always seems to right itself in time.
I remember when the oilfield crashed and everyone in Lafayette envolved in the industry went from filthy rich to bankrupt over night. We had bumper stickers that said "the last one out of Lafayette turn the lights off". Now oik is sky high again.

I watch my retirement plan go lower and lower and remember years ago when people we commiting suicide because stocks crashed.

I know in time every thing will work itself out.
For now, we will cut back where we can and hope for the best.

The main thing is that we do not have any credit card debt. We pay off the cards every month. We charge only for Disney dollars and Hilton points. Then, pay them off. If we did not do that, we would be hurting.

[Kairi_7378]

I try not to project too much on the future because there are way too many variables in the equation. There are just too many unknowns... so I try to deal with what is going on now.

Due to the economic outlook for the rest of the year, 50 people were let go from my company and I was one of them. Since then, I have been interviewing for other jobs. Yes, there are jobs there, but depending on the industry, some employers are being very cautious about hiring. (Esp in the building industry- and I am sure the mortgage industry is having the same problem.)

That being said... DH and I have been very frugal over the years so I think that we will be okay for a while. I am now thankful that he wouldn't let me book at the AKL last year due to the $1000 price difference over POR (and boy, was I mad at the time!) There are others who may have taken on too big of a mortgage, or run up credit cards, who may not be as lucky.

We usually take some day trips for vacations in the summer, but may scale back a little bit due to the loss of income and the price of gas. We'll just try to be more efficient with our traveling. We like to take a vacation after Labor Day but that wasn't going to happen this year... since I am having a baby and actually due ON Labor Day. So the summer trips will be replaced with painting chores and baby prep... I think that this will have a bigger impact on our plans than the economy itself will.

[motherhamv]

I predict that more families will be moving in together, just to have a roof. I predict that all park/attration tickets will rise dramaticly, because a lot of people will shorten how many vacations they will take per year. I predict it will get much harder, before it gets easier.

[Cinderelley]

It'll get worse, everyone will tighten down their budget strings, and then eventually it will get better. It always goes in cycles.

I hope that we really work on getting alternative fuel sources, but I doubt it.

[Ian]

I hope that we really work on getting alternative fuel sources, but I doubt it.I actually agree with this, but I'm a little more optimistic than you are.

Money is starting to flow towards "green" initiatives and that's usually a good sign that we'll see some progress.

The only real problem is that there's no magic bullet out there that provides an easy solution. Thus far all the promising technology is either not a significant improvement over what we have now (hybrids), too expensive for consumer applications (hydrogen), or impractical to a degree that they're not very palatable to the general public (electric).

But necessity really is the mother of invention and with all the pain the public is feeling from gas prices there will be a ton of pressure and incentives to make a breakthrough.

[mjstaceyuofm]

If you look at economic cycles associated with presidents leaving office you'll see that when there's not an incumbent running for a second term things typically go south. That's where we are right now. The markets react to stability and *knowing* where things are headed. There's a fair amount of uncertainty in the markets right now because no one knows what's going to happen in the upcoming election and how the next president's fiscal policy will affect our economy.

Couple that with other very strange internal/external factors such as the price of oil and gas, the fall of home prices, the rise of economies outside of the US, the fall of our dollar and the struggle as the *entire world* learns how to deal with a global economy and you've got some even stronger factors negatively influencing our economy.

All that being said, we are not in a recession right now as GDP continues to grow. That's what is so strange. It looks like a recession, feels like a recession, but it's not. I personally think things will settle after the election regardless of who's in office as companies and investors alike will adjust to the new economic policies. But this will happen only after things get worse. How worse depends on your perspective. I think gas will reach $5/gal this summer and then come back down to $3/gal. After that, we'll see some pretty steep inflationary adjustments causing people to alter their consumer habits. Things will find a settling point and by next spring we'll feel a lot better about the economy - either because things are truly better or we've just learned how to live in this new economy and accept it.

Things will feel like were on an upward path and then we'll actually find out were in a recession (2 qtrs of negative growth).

In short:

Remainder of '08 - high gas, inflation, negative GDP, bad sentiment

Start of '09 - new president, good sentiment (but hey were in a recession :crazy: ), consumer/business/investor adjustment, followed by mild growth.

A few more comments on gas/oil. Don't confuse oil prices with gas prices. Yes they are intertwined, but high gas prices have everything to do with refining capacity. There's more than enough oil out there, it's just that the oil companies can't refine it (or won't depending on your view of the evil oil companies :thedolls: ). Plus, oil prices are being driven up by commodities traders and speculators. Even OPEC has said it should be at $70/barrel given supply/demand. Oil is destined to go down again if the dollar increases in value.

[Cinderelley]

I actually agree with this, but I'm a little more optimistic than you are.

Money is starting to flow towards "green" initiatives and that's usually a good sign that we'll see some progress.

The only real problem is that there's no magic bullet out there that provides an easy solution. Thus far all the promising technology is either not a significant improvement over what we have now (hybrids), too expensive for consumer applications (hydrogen), or impractical to a degree that they're not very palatable to the general public (electric).

But necessity really is the mother of invention and with all the pain the public is feeling from gas prices there will be a ton of pressure and incentives to make a breakthrough.


I agree that there is more awareness and pressure now, but I don't think it's enough yet to make real change. People are "inconvenienced" right now. Not enough to make a major political impact. I don't think it's a make it or break it issue for the elections, so the politicians won't focus on it too much - maybe a token comment/action here and there.

It's unfortunate that so many years and ideas have gone to waste when we could have been making so many strides. I remember when my ex-DH was going to school to be a mechanic, and a guy had invented a ceramic engine that could burn certain types of trash for fuel because the ceramic could burn so hot. It's buried in the annals of one of the big motor companies who bought it and buried it. We could've helped two environmental causes at once.

[Nate's Grandpa]

Couple that with other very strange internal/external factors such as the price of oil and gas, the fall of home prices, the rise of economies outside of the US, the fall of our dollar and the struggle as the *entire world* learns how to deal with a global economy and you've got some even stronger factors negatively influencing our economy.


I agree with this opinion entirely.

The price of oil and gas is not as dependent on US consumption as they were in the past.

As far as the price of gas in the future, I have no idea. I never thought it would reach $4.00 per gallon. That may be viewed as a wonderful price 5 years from now.

I wonder how much more Disney is paying per day for diesel fuel than a year ago?

[PirateLover]

As far as gas prices go, it's a bit scary to think about but we still have pretty cheap gas compared to some other places in the world. I have a friend that's been visiting from Germany. He says that the average cost over there right now is around 8 U.S. dollars per gallon.

[mjstaceyuofm]

I wonder how much more Disney is paying per day for diesel fuel than a year ago?That's a great question. I know threads pop up all the time about bus service and there's those that defend it and those that hate it. But I wonder if there's been a noticeable difference in bus frequency/service to save on fuel costs?

[Ian]

All that being said, we are not in a recession right now as GDP continues to grow. That's what is so strange. It looks like a recession, feels like a recession, but it's not.Quite frankly, it looks like a recession and feels like a recession because the media is constantly telling us we're in a recession.

Whether you believe it's just because bad news sells or if you think it's because they have other, political motivations, it's undeniable that the media has been hammering us with nothing but bad news for 12 months now.

Which is very destructive, because it reinforces people's negative feelings, which causes them to spend less, which in turn makes things worse, which triggers more bad news, and the cycle repeats ...

[Scar]

First I want to preface my remarks by saying that I have enjoyed reading everyone’s posts and I hope this thread continues.

But the bottom line is nobody knows for sure. All anyone can do is…

DEAL WITH IT!

[Cinderelley]

because it reinforces people's negative feelings, which causes them to spend less, which in turn makes things worse, which triggers more bad news, and the cycle repeats ...

Well, I just spent $8000 on a new air conditioner. I'm doing my part. :laughing:

P.S. I have to laugh about it or I'll :fit: Bye-Bye WDW money :cry:

[Jasper]

We've sorta been here before. I think we have a "gas bubble" (uh...no pun intended about that) but I think it's going to break eventually. I really don't forsee $2.00 gasoline again but I do see $3.00


Actually there are a number of so called experts who are saying very similar things to what you are saying. Granted most of them are either quoting different numbers or hedging their bets by not quoting numbers at all. However, what they are saying is that because the run up in the price of oil has largely been speculative and that supply continues to actually meet the increased demand that in the next twelve months there will actually be a "correction" and the price will fall. Of course they also are quick to mention that prices at the pump will not fall as fast or as far as the price of crude.


I have seen the economy take a nose dive many times over the years and it always seems to right itself in time.

I know in time every thing will work itself out.
For now, we will cut back where we can and hope for the best.

The main thing is that we do not have any credit card debt. We pay off the cards every month. We charge only for Disney dollars and Hilton points. Then, pay them off. If we did not do that, we would be hurting.

This is a very true statement. When you start to get a few years on you and have lived through a few of these you start to shrug them off to some degree. Yes it hurts like the dickens at times, especially if you are unfortunate enough to lose your job, but in relatively short period of time things will turn around and head north again regardless of who or what party occupies the White House!

I also agree that keeping debt in terms of credit cards and loan payments to a minimum when times are good really pays off when times are bad. Of course, I am as guilty as anyone of not living by what I preach!:D:D



Whether you believe it's just because bad news sells or if you think it's because they have other, political motivations, it's undeniable that the media has been hammering us with nothing but bad news for 12 months now.

Which is very destructive, because it reinforces people's negative feelings, which causes them to spend less, which in turn makes things worse, which triggers more bad news, and the cycle repeats ...

How true!! There have been many times in the past when the media have cried recession, recession and when it was all said and done there never really was any recession. Is there a recession now? Who know, only time will tell. I also think a lot of it goes back to that old saying "when the other guy loses his job it is a recession; when I lose my job it is a depression!

Have faith, despites some problem areas, America and the world as a whole is still relatively solid from an economic standpoint. We will weather this storm like we have so many in the past and in the not to distant future things will be moving up again! Let's just hope that MAYBE, JUST MAYBE WE WILL HAVE LEARNED SOMETHING THIS TIME AND CAN USE THAT KNOWLEDGE TO MAKE THE WORLD A LITTLE BETTER FOR EVERY ONE!!!

[LauraleeH]

The other day I was talking to a friend and out of nowhere I asked, "Do you think America is headed for a depression?" and she said, "Yes! I was just thinking about that! Even if things aren't as bad as the Great Depression, they will be really bad and people today won't know how to deal with it"

I went to 2 different malls this weekend and I was in absolute shock. Stores have closed down, and a lot of them that haven't closed have down-sized drastically. It was also empty. Very strange feeling to shop alone, especially when the malls in my area are usually packed.

I don't know how bad it will get, but I am the most optimistic and positive person I know (My friends make fun of me and some even get mad because of it) and I am preparing and getting cautious. I'm cutting back on "fun" stuff like Starbucks and movies. I'm selling stuff on ebay to pay off my credit card bill. I'm trying to save as much as possible because my parents are struggling as well (I'm 20 and I live at home because I don't have $600 a month for a dumpy 1-bedroom apartment).

As far as vacations go, I already have a Disney pass but I went to 5 hard ticket events last year and this year I will be lucky if I go to 1. I will be using my pass for the day and that's it. No staying in the resorts (I usually stay about 10 days a year) and no spending money except for water and maybe a Mickey bar ;)

[Hull-onian]

As far as vacations go, I already have a Disney pass but I went to 5 hard ticket events last year and this year I will be lucky if I go to 1. I will be using my pass for the day and that's it. No staying in the resorts (I usually stay about 10 days a year) and no spending money except for water and maybe a Mickey bar ;)

Have to have a Mickey bar!! We gotta be optimistic.:thumbsup:

[princessjojo]

I hope that we really work on getting alternative fuel sources, but I doubt it.
I was listening to a morning radio show just last week. They were talking about this guy Stanley Meyers I think his name was who was in the works of a hydrogen motor for autos. Then he mysteriously disappeared. Later in the discussion someone called in saying that Honda was possibly scheduled to release a Hydrogen Car in the next year or so... Don't know about the validity of the info. given where it was coming from, they're hit or miss, but it would sure be a great thought though.