WDW Weather Forecast - January 31 - Feb 16, 2008

[Strmchsr]

Each day in January, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment. If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Thursday pm, January 31, 2008 :mickey:
It's pretty warm and humid today with a high of 79. That looks to be about the state of things for the next few days. Tomorrow's high will be mid 70s with a chance of isolated showers tomorrow evening, but it shouldn't be much. Saturday will be clear and in the mid 70s. Sunday through Tuesday will be clear with highs 78-80. Scattered showers are possible on Wednesday, which will have a high of 75. There won't be an all day rain, but the front will bring some shower activity. Thursday will clear out with a high in the low 70s.

Looking into voodooland...Feb 8 looks mostly cloudy with a high in the upper 60s. Feb 9 still looks stormy/rainy with a high in the mid 60s. Feb 10-12 is clear with highs 63-65. Feb 13 warms into the low 70s as WDW will be in the warm sector of the approaching front. Feb 14 looks stormy with a high in the upper 60s. Some rain may linger on the 15th in the morning, but clear by afternoon with a high around 70. Feb 16 looks clear with a high in the low 70s.

Travel Impact :plane: :car: :drive:
At 2:00 pm CST lots of problems...Dallas is at 30 min due to wind, Houston is at 1 hour due to thunderstorms, Chicago Midway is at 40 min due to runway treatment and O'hare is 3 hours due to poor visibility. San Francisco is at 2 1/2 hours due to fog. Tomorrow looks really nasty. Atlanta to DC to Buffalo to Chicago and back will be the area to watch, and the Great Lakes area looks to be particularly bad. Salt Lake City and San Francisco also look like delay potentials.

[ginger19]

Thank you :D

Last year your forecast was dead on but unfortunately that meant very cold and rainy weather in january. I leave for my anniversary trip with DH on the 17th and your info is really helpful for my planning!

[Strmchsr]

Last year your forecast was dead on ...

Well, even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally. :D

I'm glad it's helpful, and here's some :pixie: for better weather for you this year.

[FenwayGirl]

Where do you find this information. We arrive in WDW on Jan 18th and leave Jan 26th. Any weather information would be helpful for packing etc.

[Strmchsr]

Where do you find this information. We arrive in WDW on Jan 18th and leave Jan 26th. Any weather information would be helpful for packing etc.

All of the information on this page is from my own forecasting. I look at all of the various models, do my own interpretation of them, and put that forecast here. Just keep checking back to post #1 of this thread each day for all your WDW forecasting needs. As I always remind folks, though, any forecast, I don't care who the source is, beyond 7 days is just a general idea and not something to be taken too seriously. The models just aren't good enough at resolving specifics beyond 7 days. If you have any specific questions, just ask and I'll try to answer.

[Strmchsr]

Since I try to keep you updated on travel delays, here's an interesting article from MSNBC today:


Airlines, Mother Nature and the weather card
5 things airlines won’t tell you about weather delays
By Christopher Elliott
Travel columnist
updated 9:56 a.m. CT, Fri., Jan. 4, 2008

Is your airline telling the truth about the weather? If you were a passenger on one of the more than 1,200 United Airlines flights canceled since Dec. 23, you might have wondered — particularly after its pilots claimed the carrier was understaffed during the peak travel period, contradicting the airline’s explanation that winter storms were to blame for its actions.

And if you had a ticket on Northwest Airlines last summer, and one of your flights was called off because of what the airline said were thunderstorms, but everyone else said was a pilot shortage, you might also have your doubts.
Heck, you don’t even have to fly to distrust an airline. Have you seen the commercial with the pilot and the iPhone yet? The air traffic control says there’s a weather delay. Pilot pulls up the weather report on his phone and finds there’s no weather problem. Tower clears the flight. “Everybody was happy, and life was good,” he says. If you’re not asking about weather delays yet, you probably will be. The next few months traditionally bring blizzards, ice storms and cold winter rains with them, offering more opportunities for airlines to play the weather card. And they almost certainly will, say analysts. That’s because of a quirk in the way weather delays and cancellations are reported, an unusually generous definition of weather adopted by airlines, and passenger contracts that are written in a way that gives airlines every incentive to blame Mother Nature.

For the record, the airlines insist they’re telling the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, when it comes to climate-caused cancellations. Asked about its Christmastime meltdown, United Airlines e-mailed me a letter sent to employees by Pete McDonald, its chief operating officer, which explained the situation. “Through the month of December, we were affected by significant irregular operations, particularly at O’Hare, as a result of repeated weather events, including ice, fog, wind and snow,” he wrote. “We also struggled through snowstorms in Denver. In fact, weather and air traffic control delays affected United twice as much as the rest of the industry.” That may be true, but there’s likely more to it than that, say observers. Here are five things your airline probably won’t tell you about weather delays: ‘Weather is only half of the story — and it’s not the interesting half.’
“If there is a hint of bad weather anywhere, that will be used as the excuse,” says Holly Hegeman, an airline industry analyst with PlaneBusiness.com. But there’s often more at work. In United’s case, a pilot shortage exacerbated by a frayed relationship between pilots and management was probably the primary cause. “I think United looked pretty guilty the last two weeks, as American did not post similar cancellation numbers, nor did Southwest, out of O’Hare or Midway, for the same time periods,” she says.
‘When we call it a weather delay, we’re off the hook.’ “It’s very convenient to put weather over any other shortcomings,” says Henry Harteveldt, an airline analyst with Forrester Research. Why? Because under most airline contracts of carriages — the legal agreements between you and the airlines — weather is considered an “Act of God” and it basically means the carrier owes passengers nothing. “They don’t have to offer you accommodations, meals or hotel vouchers,” he says. “It’s a giant loophole that the airline likes to fly through.”

‘We’re on the honor system when we report a weather delay.’ When an airline says a flight is affected by weather we have to take it at its word. The data is reported to the government but not subjected to any kind of formal audit. Since it first required airlines to report the causes of delays five years ago, the government has red-flagged weather delay numbers only twice. In 2005, SkyWest Airlines was fined $25,000 for “inappropriately attributing flight delays to the National Aviation System,” according to a consent order. And last year, JetBlue Airways was told it had incorrectly tagged some of its winter cancellations as “air carrier” delays, when, in fact, weather should have been cited. It was not fined.

‘Our definition of a weather delay is absurdly loose.’ “Squishy,” is how Meara McLaughlin, vice president of business development for flight data site FlightStats.com, describes the new airline definition of weather. “The definition of weather has expanded a bit,” she says. It isn’t just the conditions at your airport, along the way, or at your destination that count, but weather anywhere in the system that can be invoked. That’s because the airlines’ so-called “hub and spoke” system relies on aircraft coming from other cities, which could be affected by weather. “To my way of thinking, you have to call that something other than weather,” she says. As someone who processes a lot of aviation data, McLaughlin believes airlines are applying this looser definition of weather with greater frequency.

‘We’re even confused by the way we report weather delays.’ Robert Mann, an airline analyst who has investigated how airlines report delays on behalf of the Transportation Department, says the process can even be confusing to someone inside an airline. Each carrier has what he calls “inherent biases” to the way it classifies a delay. It all comes down to who gets to report the delay internally. “If the gate agent has the opportunity to code the delay, they won’t code it as [being their fault] because they could lose bonuses or get a bad review,” he says. “But if you give the reporting capability to someone else, they’ll code it a different way.” More often than not, it’s the bottom line that holds the most sway over how a delay is reported — what kind of delay will cost an airline the least, in terms of compensation paid to passengers or on-time rankings.

So what’s a passenger to do when a flight is delayed or canceled because of a storm? Arguing with a ticket agent is pointless, because the agent isn’t making the call — it’s someone down the line, safe out of your reach. Your most effective weapon is not information, but politeness. It could get you a hotel room or a meal voucher even when you aren’t entitled to one, and it could put you on the next available flight to your destination. And next time an airline says your flight is canceled because of the weather, don’t bother looking out your window. Because what you see doesn’t really matter.

[FlaTinkRAMESAM]

Well, even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally. :D

:silly:

that made me laugh... thank-you...lol

[glenpreece]

Booo!!!LOL, I don't like this forecast it seems like most of our honeymoon is going to be rainy.

[rt207]

My trip is in the voodoo land time-frame and I sure hope it changes for the better. I doubt it, though. With my luck, Orlando will get a snow storm :snowball: and record lows:freeze:.:rolleyes:

[Strmchsr]

Booo!!!LOL, I don't like this forecast it seems like most of our honeymoon is going to be rainy.

Hopefully it'll dry out some for you. I don't think it'll rain constantly, though you definitely have some wetter looking days in there. However, if it does rain, just don't shoot the messenger!!! :hide2::giveup:

[FenwayGirl]

As long as I am in WDW...I don't care:mickey:

[jenfriend]

Air delays are always possible in Minneapolis/St. Paul and Chicago - Our flight to Orlando goes through both!

On January 16 departing MSP around 4pm, O'Hare around 6:30pm

On Janaury 21 departing around 11am from MCO, and O'Hare around noon, arrival back at MSP around 1:30pm

(All times are local times)

We're actually hoping that we can change our tickets w/o penalty so we can stay longer or arrive earlier due to poor weather in MSP or Chicago.

Thanks.

[glenpreece]

Hopefully it'll dry out some for you. I don't think it'll rain constantly, though you definitely have some wetter looking days in there. However, if it does rain, just don't shoot the messenger!!! :hide2::giveup:

I just appreciate, as I am sure alot of other people, your dedication in keeping us up to date on the weather situation at WDW. Thanks so much for everything. You put alot of worries to rest.

[FlaTinkRAMESAM]

things are still lookin good for our trip (still in "VOODOOLAND" lol) so as long as that doesn't change, you're my friend... :D:D:D:D:D:D

[Strmchsr]

Air delays are always possible in Minneapolis/St. Paul and Chicago - Our flight to Orlando goes through both!

On January 16 departing MSP around 4pm, O'Hare around 6:30pm

On Janaury 21 departing around 11am from MCO, and O'Hare around noon, arrival back at MSP around 1:30pm.

Now that we're a little closer I feel safer about responding. The exact timing is never certain until 2-3 days out, but currently it looks like there could definitely be some snow issues on Jan 16 for both MSP and ORD. However, and let again say that exact timing is not an exact science, on this evening's model runs it appears that the worst of it will be through both MSP and Chicago by early afternoon. There may be some residual delays, but I don't see anything that would prevent you from getting out.

Jan 21 is still vooodland, so ask me again closer to time, but for now MSP looks clear but ORD looks like some decent snow showers.

[rt207]

Weather at WDW - Updated Thursday pm, January 10, 2008

Jan 20 looks slightly cooler with the high in the upper 50s and low in the mid 30s. Jan 21 warms back to the mid 60s with some coastal showers, but I don't think those will bother WDW. Jan 22-26 looks clear with highs around 70.

Sold! Now we're talking! I'll take this one, please...:yes:

[Strmchsr]

Sold! Now we're talking! I'll take this one, please...:yes:

I'm glad it's looking better for you, but it's still out in voodooland, so don't get too excited until we clear the 7 day mark. :thumbsup:

[FlaTinkRAMESAM]

Night of 1/21 for the P&P party is looking clear? as best you can tell of course...

[Strmchsr]

Night of 1/21 for the P&P party is looking clear? as best you can tell of course...

Looking way into my crystal ball, yeah, right now it looks fine. Partly cloudy skies with a temp in the evening in the upper 50s.

[jenfriend]

I'm wondering what the forcast is now for travel through MSP and ORD on Wed 1/16 & Mon 1/21.

I won't have access to email/internet after Wed afternoon. So do I call the airline to ask about weather delays?

As far as Thurs. & Fri. - which is the better weather day? We'd like to go to Typhoon Lagoon or enjoy our resort's pool one of those days.

THanks. I appreciate it.

[ginger19]

Can you give me any input on what to expect thursday night coming out of Providence? We are in a storm today and they are predicting another for thursday night. We fly out at 6pm.

thanks :D

[Strmchsr]

I'm wondering what the forcast is now for travel through MSP and ORD on Wed 1/16 & Mon 1/21.

I won't have access to email/internet after Wed afternoon. So do I call the airline to ask about weather delays?

As far as Thurs. & Fri. - which is the better weather day? We'd like to go to Typhoon Lagoon or enjoy our resort's pool one of those days.

THanks. I appreciate it.

The system has slowed down some, but it's looking like a close call on Wednesday. There will be snow at MSP on Wednesday, but probably not until late in the afternoon. The GFS and NAM disagree slightly on the timing, but both push it off until late. So, I think you'll be fine getting out on Wednesday, though there may be some slight wind related delays. Yes, call the airline about your specific flight to check delays. As for 1/21 - that's still right at the edge of voodooland this morning, but at the moment it appears there may be a few clouds and a light shower possible at MCO, but nothing that would cause delays. Up north however, snow is still looking probably for ORD, though I think MSP will be clearing out. Timing on that right now is really difficult this far out, as is storm strength. Right now it doesn't look too bad, but we'll have to see how things shake out over the next couple of days. If you have internet in WDW ask me closer to time and I'll recheck for you.

As for the better weather day - I'd definitely say Friday. Right now it looks like a decent chance of thunderstorms at some point on Thursday so you don't want to be at the water park during one of those. That said, Thursday will be warmer. I think the thunderstorms will be late afternoon on Thursday, so you could go in the morning and have a few hours before the storms arrived. Thursday's high will be in the low 70s while Friday will be mid 60s, but Friday will be clear. Hopefully that information will help you make your choice.

[Strmchsr]

Can you give me any input on what to expect thursday night coming out of Providence? We are in a storm today and they are predicting another for thursday night. We fly out at 6pm.

thanks :D

According to the latest model runs today it doesn't appear that any weather issues would be around Providence (I assume you mean RI) until very late Thursday. You should get out without any problems. Now, there may be some delays along the east coast so if you don't have a direct flight that might cause an issue, and I would definitely expect turbulence, but getting out I don't think will be a problem.

[ginger19]

I did mean RI :) Thank you, we have a direct flight so we should be ok. Now if you can just clear out those showers I'll be ok :mickey:

[jenfriend]

I really appreciate the help with personal forcasting.

[Tinkermom]

Hey Chris,

I am heading to WDW on Monday 1/21 for the Children's Pastors Conference. Will we see any sun Mon, Tues, or Wed? We have a special Illuminations viewing with a dessert bar:cloud9: on Tuesday night. What do you think the rain chances are on Tuesday night? Thanks!!

I suppose if I do not get good weather this time I can hope for it when we go as a family in 2 1/2 weeks.:D

[NJ Camper]

try weather.com it should give you all you need :mickey:

[Tinkermom]

try weather.com it should give you all you need :mickey:

I find Chris's forecast to be much more accurate as well as providing more info. Thanks though!:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

I am heading to WDW on Monday 1/21 for the Children's Pastors Conference. Will we see any sun Mon, Tues, or Wed? We have a special Illuminations viewing with a dessert bar:cloud9: on Tuesday night. What do you think the rain chances are on Tuesday night? Thanks!!

Hey, Lisa. I think you'll see a decent amount of sun on Monday and Wednesday. Tuesday looks partly cloudy, and there is a chance of scattered showers, especially in the evening, but it doesn't look too heavy or widespread, so I'd say there's a pretty fair chance you'll get your special Illuminations viewing in with no problems. Have fun!

[Strmchsr]

try weather.com it should give you all you need :mickey:

:welcome: to Intercot!!!

Check post #1 in case you missed it. I'm not a big fan of weather.com as that is an automated forecasting using 1 model done by computer. No human interaction involved. It's great for a quick look or if it's all you have, but not the most reliable and you'll notice it changes every 6 hours or so (with the model runs).

[BiloxiMom]

The week of 1/27-2/2 looks like it will be good... I'm hoping for great temps and no (or maybe just a little) rain. Thanks for serving up such a great forcast!!

[BiloxiMom]

Chris,

How much rain do you think for the 31st? We're leaving Sat. and I'm not sure exactly how to pack. Warm, humid, rainy, or cool, wet, and cloudy.... both sound bad for my hair:blush: Last yr. your forecast was spot on accurate! I'm counting on you again for next week!:cool:

[MickeyChick]

We're packing for both warm and cool, leaving Philly Friday morning... hope your mid 70s turn out to be accurate!

[Strmchsr]

Chris,

How much rain do you think for the 31st? We're leaving Sat. and I'm not sure exactly how to pack. Warm, humid, rainy, or cool, wet, and cloudy.... both sound bad for my hair:blush: Last yr. your forecast was spot on accurate! I'm counting on you again for next week!:cool:

Looking at the latest models, not much rain for the 31st. I think the evening of Feb 1 into the morning of Feb 2 will be wetter, but all of that's still right on the verge of voodooland, so check back with me on Friday and I'll have a better feel for it.

[BiloxiMom]

Thanks! I'll be checking in for a final forecast on Friday. Praying for good weather.........:thumbsup:

[bouncer]

will the storm that comes in on the 8th be during the day or overnight from the 7th-8th? We are flying in (MKE to MCO) @ 5:30 pm on the 8th?:(

[Strmchsr]

will the storm that comes in on the 8th be during the day or overnight from the 7th-8th? We are flying in (MKE to MCO) @ 5:30 pm on the 8th?:(

As of this morning it looks like the morning of the 8th. However, when we're looking at the far reaches of voodooland like this talking about timing is pretty much useless. Once we get about 7 days out I can tell you with much more certainty.

[RoosMomKanga]

Love this Sticky and all your work! So excited...I haven't allowed myself to count days out until it came up in your forecast...9th hooray!

Question- Might not be your topic, but I think it has to do with the sun's distance...Will we need to even bother with suntan lotion this time of year? We burn:blush: easily but don't like to put on lotion unless we have to! I know it can get warm, but are the rays as intense as summer (since the sun is farther away in winter)...can you burn?:confused:

[Strmchsr]

Question- Might not be your topic, but I think it has to do with the sun's distance...Will we need to even bother with suntan lotion this time of year? We burn:blush: easily but don't like to put on lotion unless we have to! I know it can get warm, but are the rays as intense as summer (since the sun is farther away in winter)...can you burn?:confused:

That's a great question and the short answer is, yes, you can burn during the winter months, though you are not as likely to do so. It really has nothing to do with distance to the sun. That stays pretty constant. The matter lies with the angle of the earth to the sun. During November-February the northern hemisphere is tilted away from the sun, hence the winter. The southern hemisphere is, obviously, tilted towards the sun so that same time period is summer for them. The closer to the equator you get, the more direct sunlight you get year round. SUp in Pittsburgh (go Penguins!) during winter you're not very likely to burn (except snow burns) due to the less direct sunlight, but FL still has enough direct sunlight and UV exposure to cause burns, though not as quickly as during summer. If you burn easily I would definitely put on some lotion during the most intense parts of the day (from 11 am until 3 pm or so). Before and after that time frame you should be fine.

[threeh]

Thanks for such a good looking forcast!!! We are going 2/2-2/12 and where I live it is 11 degrees so 60-70 sounds like heaven:cloud9:
Thanks!!!!:thumbsup:

[Hair_Razor]

I would like to place an order for the dates Feb. 8- 15th. I will take mid 70's and sunny all week please! Light breeze and warm pool water, you know the usual ;). So where do I send my deposit?

[Strmchsr]

I would like to place an order for the dates Feb. 8- 15th. I will take mid 70's and sunny all week please! Light breeze and warm pool water, you know the usual ;). So where do I send my deposit?

While I'm in public relations, not management, I'll be sure to send the Boss a memo for you. :D

[Hair_Razor]

Thanks, I appreciate it!!! :waycool:

[Aggie97]

Thanks so much for your forecasts and daily updates! We are heading to WDW tomorrow, and this has really helped us figure out what clothes to pack. :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Thanks so much for your forecasts and daily updates! We are heading to WDW tomorrow, and this has really helped us figure out what clothes to pack. :mickey:

Glad to help. Have a great trip!!!