WDW Weather Forecast

[Strmchsr]

Each day in November, usually between 11 and 1 central time, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment. If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Hey, everyone. My family and I are headed to WDW for our own vacation Nov 25-Dec 1 so during that time I won't be able to update the forecast (I refuse to pay $9.95/day for internet at WDW when I can get it for free at Motel Six). I feel pretty good about the forecast for the next 7-9 days so you should be fine until I get back, but here's a couple of links to weather sites I actually trust and that should be helpful to you if you need info before I get back:

Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=32830)

WFTV-Channel 9 In Orlando (http://www.wftv.com/weather/index.html)

Weather at WDW - Updated Saturday pm, November 24, 2007 :mickey:
Look for a high today 75-77 with a few clouds and a slight chance of a brief shower. Tomorrow will continue mostly cloudy conditions with isolated showers possible, but not likely. Expect a high 80-82. Monday will be mostly sunny with a few clouds and high 81-83. Lows during all of this time will be mid 60s. Monday's warmth will be due to a strong storm system over the southern US. It should be quite humid, but rain will stay away. For Tuesday it will be cloudy with an isolated shower or two possible. Look for a high near 80. Up until this afternoon, Wednesday through next Saturday look rain free with highs 78-80 and lows in the low 60s. However, the 18z run now shows cooler air flowing into FL on Friday. There would be a very slight chance of an isolated shower on Thursday followed by the cooler air. Right now, I don't know if this this an outlier or a genuine trend. Keep a watch on this, because if this new data is correct, Friday's high could be low 70s and Saturday's in the mid 70s. Moving into voodooland, next Sunday looks like it will remain clear with a high in the mid 70s. As of now, the storm system for Dec 3/4 still look pretty potent. The models continue to flip flop as to whether the system comes through the evening of the 3rd or during the morning of the 4th. Either way, once the front is through the temps turn cooler with a high of near 65. Things will be back to upper 60s to low 70s for 12/5. It wasn't on the 06z GFS, but the 12z GFS has another really powerful system in the 12/6-7 time frame with lots of rain and very cold air behind it, but, again, this is way into voodooland and by the time I get back next
Sunday all of that could change. I'll get a forecast to you on 12/2 as quickly as possible. In the meantime, check the links above for forecast updates.

Travel Impact :plane: :car: :drive:
No delays at 10:00 am CST, but a fairly major storm system is coming up out of the Gulf. Dallas, Houston, Little Rock, all of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and much of Tennessee will face delay potential over the next couple of days.

[merlinmagic4]

That's a real bummer about November 12th. We have tickets to MVMCP on that night and we only have a four day vacation. Oh well.

[Strmchsr]

That's a real bummer about November 12th. We have tickets to MVMCP on that night and we only have a four day vacation. Oh well.

Don't give up hope just yet. While the models are being fairly consistent in bringing this storm system down, it's still in voodooland, so neither the timing nor the intensity is set in stone yet.

[WDWFanatic]

Thanks Chris. We'll be there Nov. 10-17. I'm hoping for warm dry weather....would you mind putting the umbrella over Disney to help us out ;)

Thanks!:D

[Strmchsr]

Well, it depends upon what your definition of warm is. For you Mass. folks it should be pretty comfortable with highs ranging from upper 70s to mid 60s during your trip.

The dry part, with the exception of one day, will probably be pretty doable. That said, I'm just in public relations, not management. You'll have to talk to the Big Boss about a WDW sized umbrella. :D

[illini]

Well, looks like I know what I'm going to be doing today. REPACKING... after yet another shopping excursion. Looks like we're going to need way more warm clothes than I had originally packed. Since we're in a warm climate, mid/low 60s for a high is pretty chilly for us, especially since we haven't seen that yet this year!
Chris, thank you SO MUCH for this. It's an enormous help, and I appreciate it greatly.

[JohnnyJayhawk]

We're leaving tomorrow and the weather looks perfect. Thanks for keeping us updated.

[WDWFanatic]

The news only gets better. I guess the big guy is putting up the umbrella for us Kelly's from MA who are heading down:cloud9:.

Now if you wouldn't mind turning the heat up a few degrees? We need to be able to tease our friends back home:D.

[Strmchsr]

Now if you wouldn't mind turning the heat up a few degrees? We need to be able to tease our friends back home:D.

Aren't upper 60s a heat wave for you guys in November? Actually, you may get your wish. The cold air influx on this morning's model runs is look much less dramatic.

[merlinmagic4]

The news only gets better. I guess the big guy is putting up the umbrella for us Kelly's from MA who are heading down:cloud9:.

Now if you wouldn't mind turning the heat up a few degrees? We need to be able to tease our friends back home:D.

I was just thinking the same thing ;) I could do 80!!

[WDWFanatic]

Aren't upper 60s a heat wave for you guys in November? Actually, you may get your wish. The cold air influx on this morning's model runs is look much less dramatic.

Boy Chris you just keep giving us better news, and since you haven't failed me yet...

How about low crowds:D, can you handle that for us too?;)

[Hayden's Dad]

I know we are still in super voodooland with the last week of Nov, but you said it was going to be cooler after that first rain comes through on the 24-25th. What is cooler? It has been in the 50s with lows in the 20s here in NC. Thanks see you soon.

[Strmchsr]

I know we are still in super voodooland with the last week of Nov, but you said it was going to be cooler after that first rain comes through on the 24-25th. What is cooler? It has been in the 50s with lows in the 20s here in NC. Thanks see you soon.

I tell ya, the models are really crazy right now so I'm not banking on anything, but IF (and that's an if the size of Godzilla) it happens we're still talking highs in the low to mid 60s and lows maybe into the upper 30s.

[Hayden's Dad]

Thanks so much

[merlinmagic4]

Well, the weather is certainly holding up here! Yesterday (Saturday) was absolutely beautiful.....couldn't have been better!!!! I just can't believe how lucky we got with the weather!

Thanks for the reports :mickey:

[mouseketeer mom]

Woo Hoo! Sounds terrific for our 15th thru the 24th trip! Thank you!

[Hayden's Dad]

Sounding better for our trip the 25th through the 1st. If it's in the 40s it really will feel like Chirstmas during MVMCP :D

[berri_boo]

I'm keeping my :fingers: for good weather for our trip (Nov 23rd-Dec 9th). We're coming from the Hudson Valley (NY) and what a little warmer weather then what we are currently having (We've seen snow flurries already :freeze: & I'm not too fond of the coldness).

[Strmchsr]

Well, I can't promise good weather the entire trip, and I would rather expect you'll see 2-3 rainy days during that time at least, but I think I can safely say it will be warmer at WDW than at home, even with the cold fronts coming through.

[Strmchsr]

Here is a roundup of weather for the next three days at a number of places where you may or may not be traveling to for Thanksgiving. Also check out the section at the bottom which outlines some areas of the worst weather conditions.

NEW ORLEANS: Fair dry weather for the remainder of today. High 78. Scattered showers will start tonight with low about 62. For Wednesday, mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, increasing in the afternoon. High 78. Those showers and storms will become numerous Wednesday night. For Thanksgiving Day, some morning showers ending by afternoon. Breezy and cooler. High about 65. On Thanksgiving night, it may drop as low as 38 degrees.

ORLANDO: Mostly clear tonight. Low 62. Dry weather continues Wednesday and Wednesday night. High about 82. For Thanksgiving Day, clouds increase with a good chance of showers and maybe some thunderstorms. High near 80. Those showers will continue Thursday night and Friday.

ALABAMA/NW FLORIDA COAST: A few morning showers Wednesday becoming more numerous in the afternoon, along with some thunderstorms. High 75. Those will continue Wednesday night. For Thanksgiving Day, morning showers will thin out or completely end by afternoon followed by breezy and cooler weather. High 72. It should drop to 45 Thanksgiving night. Friday…mostly sunny, breezy and a lot cooler. High near 62. If you are planning to stay for the weekend, it looks wet. A good chance of showers and thunderstorms starting at some point on Saturday and continuing into Sunday. The low and high on Saturday about 45/60.

GATLINBURG/GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK: Fair tonight. Low in the 40s. A few afternoon showers Wednesday, but those will become more numerous late Wednesday night along with some thunderstorms. High Wednesday mostly in the 60s. For Thanksgiving Day, colder with numerous showers and thunderstorms with temperatures falling into the 40s and even in the 30s in the mountains. Friday should be dry, but cold with lows 25 to 35 with the coldest temperatures in the high country and highs 38 to 46.

ATLANTA: Mostly sunny Wednesday, but a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. High 72. Showers, along with some thunderstorms, will become numerous late Wednesday night. High Wednesday 72. For Thanksgiving Day, numerous morning showers thinning out greatly by afternoon. High 62. Friday, mostly sunny and cool. Low 37. High 58.

WASHINGTON, DC: Partly sunny, mild and dry Wednesday. High 72. Thanksgiving Day…cloudy with a chance of rain. High 68. Colder at night with low 38. Friday, mostly sunshine. High about 48. The next rain for the nation’s Capitol will be about Sunday and increasing Sunday night.

NEW YORK CITY: Mostly cloudy tonight with patchy fog. Low 45. Dry, but mostly cloudy, Wednesday. High 55. Scattered showers will start Wednesday night. Thanksgiving Day…cloudy. Some morning showers, but rain increasing in the afternoon. High in the low 60s. Colder Thanksgiving night with rain ending. Low 38. Mostly sunshine on Friday, breezy and much cooler. High near 44.

CHICAGO: Widespread rain tonight. A cold rain with a low of about 42. Rain will continue Wednesday becoming mixed with snow by late afternoon. Little or no accumulation. It will be breezy and much colder. Wednesday is going to be a day when the thermometer gets confused and goes the wrong way on the interstate. The warmest part of Wednesday will be in the morning with about 45 and dropping into the 30s during the afternoon with wind gusts up to 30 mph. Light rain and snow mixed is expected Wednesday evening, then all snow after midnight with snow accumulating about 1 inch. It will be blustery and cold with low Wednesday night near freezing and north wind up to 30 mph. For Thanksgiving Day, mostly cloudy with occasional snow showers. High only about 35 with wind gusts to 30 mph. Dry weather is expected Friday, Saturday and Sunday, but continued cold all through the weekend.

ST. LOUIS: Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will start after dark. They should become more numerous after midnight with an overnight low of 52. For Wednesday, turning cooler, but occasional rain and some thunderstorms will continue mostly during the morning and the early afternoon. The rain will increase again by late afternoon and continue Wednesday night as it turns much colder. The rain should become mixed with sleet Wednesday evening and changing to snow later in the evening and flurries continuing after midnight. The low Wednesday night about 31. Thanksgiving Day…colder. Clouds decrease by afternoon, but still some morning flurries. High about 39. Friday and on through the weekend should be dry, but cold. Lows about 28 and highs about 45.

DALLAS/FT. WORTH: Dry weather this afternoon and tonight with south winds up to 35 mph. High near 80. Low tonight 65. Wednesday…cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, brrezy and cooler. Temperatures falling to near 55 in the afternoon with rather brisk winds. Mostly cloudy and much colder Wednesday night. Windy with a low near 39. For Thanksgiving Day, sunshine, cooler, breezy. High 52. Some light rain will arrive on Friday with a better chance Friday night and especially Saturday. It will be a cold rain with high only about 48 Saturday. The rain will continue Saturday night and taper off Sunday.

DENVER: Temperatures will fall into the 30s this afternoon. Much colder tonight with some snow starting in the evening and increasing after midnight. 1 to 3 inches accumulation expected tonight with a low near 18. Wednesday the snow will continue during the morning and decrease some in the afternoon. An additional 1 to 2 inches expected, which means the total from this system should be 2 to 5 inches. Low Wednesday night about 12. For Thanksgiving Day, partly sunny but dry. Temperatures below freezing all day with a high near 30 and the low Thanksgiving night about 12.

LAS VEGAS: Near record high temperatures this afternoon with a high near 76. Sunny and cooler Wednesday with a high of 65. Thanksgiving Day should be mostly sunshine with a low of 42 and a high of 62. No rain is in the forecast for Las Vegas all the way through next Monday, but some nights will be chilly in the upper 30s with highs on most days in the lower 60s.

SAN FRANCISCO: Mostly sunny Wednesday. High 63. Clear Wednesday night. Low 38 to 43. Thanksgiving Day should be sunshine with high 63 to 65. No rain in the forecast for San Francisco all the way through Monday.

YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK: Much colder today with 3 to 8 inches of snow accumulating. High 17 to 23. Snow showers will continue tonight with lows in the single digits. A few snow showers Wednesday with highs 16 to 22. Thanksgiving Day should be partly sunny, but there will be some patchy, frozen fog in the morning. Low near zero and the high for Thanksgiving 20 to 26.

AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PROBLEMS

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS: The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the following areas for a Slight Risk of severe weather Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Most of Kentucky
All of Tennessee except the extreme east
Extreme East Arkansas
NE corner of Louisiana
North and Central Alabama as far south as the Montgomery area

WINTRY WEATHER PROBLEMS: Snow Advisories continue for parts of Western Massachusetts, Eastern New York, almost all of Vermont and the southern half of Maine. Snow Advisories also for NW South Dakota, extreme NE Wyoming, NW Wyoming (including Yellowstone National Park) and SW Montana.

[Strmchsr]

Here's the weather situation for those of you traveling today:

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
In progress in these areas:
East Missouri
Central and North Illinois
North half of Indiana
West Kentucky
West Tennessee
NW and West Alabama

Locally heavy rain in some of those areas. Radar estimates show 1 to 2 inches of rain in Shelby County, Tenn., and a Flash Flood Warning expired at 10 am for the Memphis area. Some heavy rain has shifted further east into West Tennessee.

SNOW
Snowing in these areas:
North Kansas
East Nebraska
Most of Iowa
Part of Wisconsin

Rain should change to snow tonight in the general area from St. Louis to Chicago to Milwaukee; some places in the region could see 2 to 4 inches of snow.

SEVERE WEATHER
A Tornado Watch until 8 o’clock tonight, CST, for much of South and East Arkansas, part of Southern Illinois and part of SE Missouri. The updated outlook from the SPC late this morning continued a Slight Risk of severe weather this afternoon and tonight for:

Extreme East Texas
Most of Arkansas except NW
North half of Louisiana including all of Route I-20
North and Central Mississippi from about Jackson northward
West Tennessee from near Nashville westward and including Memphis
Extreme West Kentucky
South tip of Illionois
SE corner of Missouri
Extreme NW Alabama

WHERE IT IS BELOW FREEZING AT 10 AM CST
North Arizona, North New Mexico, Texas Pandhandle. Wichita, Omaha, Upper Michigan northward. 5 to 10 degrees in Western Wyoming.

USA EXTREMES
90 Pecos, Texas, where I spent the night once in a blinding dust storm
6 below zero this morning inside Yellowstone National Park at Yellowstone Lake
6 below also at Northway, Alaska

[Strmchsr]

No to cover every destination or every route, but here are some examples that may help. First, an overview:

Snow is in the forecast for all counties in New Mexico, 5 counties in SE Arizona, most of the Texas Panhandle and the west 1/3 of Kansas. Snow was already falling this morning from the Texas Panhandle (that means Amarillo, not El Paso!). I will do a brief story about that one day. Anyway the snow extends north through the Oklahoma Panhandle into West Kansas. There is also some snow activity in the NE scattered from Western Pennsylvania into New York State.

This afternoon there was no precipitation of any kind over a very broad area including the Carolinas, Tennessee, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida and the east 80% of Texas.

Scattered thunderstorms will start in South Texas later today. Scattered thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night will spread east to places like Shreveport, New Orleans, Jackson and Mobile. There is a general outlook for some possible severe weather Sunday over SE Louisiana, the south half of Mississippi and SW Alabama. That could spread more northward and eastward by Monday.

Be advised of a vast wet weather system is on the horizon over the weekend and through Monday all the way from New Mexico to the Atlantic coast and even north and NE to the Mid-Atlantic states and New England. At some point during this timeframe, heavy rain will affect Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Middle and Eastern Tennessee.

Okay, let’s give you some specific location reports.

ALBUQUERQUE
Already some snow flurries. They expect 1 to 3 inches of snow this afternoon, an additional 1 to 2 inches tonight and about another inch on Saturday. Strong NE winds will set in Saturday. They frequently get strong canyon winds.

LUBBOCK
That West Texas city will have intermittent snow showers through Sunday, but their official NWS forecast does not mention any significant accumulation.

DALLAS/FT. WORTH
Widespread rain starts Saturday and continues all through the weekend with highs only in the 40s.

HOUSTON
A bit of light rain this afternoon, but showers and thunderstorms will be increasing in number after midnight tonight with numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing all the way through Sunday night. Heavy rain at times. In a weather model like this, Houston often gets several inches of rain.

NEW ORLEANS
Light rain starts Saturday afternoon. Numerous showers will reach the area Saturday afternoon with numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing Saturday night, Sunday and Sunday night. The Crescent City could easily get 3 to 4 inches of rain out of this.

JACKSON
Light rain holds off until Saturday morning, but increasing in the afternoon. There is a high probability of rain and thunderstorms Saturday night, Sunday and Sunday night.

MOBILE/GULF SHORES/PENSACOLA
Rain starts Saturday afternoon and becomes widespread Saturday night and stays that way all the way through Monday morning. Rain will be heavy at times during that period and, at some point, they may experience some severe thunderstorm warnings.

TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG
Not much rain indicated all the way through the weekend and even all the way until next Thursday. They expect a 20% of rain on a few days. Highs will be consistently 80 to 85.

THIRSTY ATLANTA
Showers start Saturday. Showers will become numerous after midnight Saturday night. After that showers, numerous at times, all the way through Monday with a climax of showers and strong thunderstorms during the day Monday. Atlanta could get somewhere between 2 and 3 inches of rain out of this total system based on computer models. As of this morning, the rain deficit in Atlanta for the year stands at 18.86 inches. They have received only 26.41 inches so far this year. Compare that to Oklahoma City, which is 53 inches this year and an excess of almost 20 inches.

GATLINBURG/GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK
Dry weather tonight and Saturday with tonight’s lows in the teens and 20s, depending which hill you are on. Rain will start Saturday night. After that, expect numerous showers late in the weekend all the way through Monday. In a case like this, there could always be some snow on the very highest elevations like Mt. LeConte. By the way, the low on Mt. LeConte this morning was 16 and they got 1 inch of snow in the last 24 hours. Newfound Gap also has 1 inch on the ground.

NASHVILLE
Dry through Saturday. A little rain Saturday night. Showers, numerous at times, Sunday, but most numerous Sunday night and Monday.

MEMPHIS
No rain until a slight chance Saturday afternoon. Rain will become widespread Saturday night and continue that way Sunday and Sunday night into Monday morning.

DES MOINES
Scattered snow showers after midnight, occasional snow on Saturday, then dry over the weekend. No mention of significant accumulation.

CHICAGO
No rain until a chance of some light rain on Monday.

BIRMINGHAM
Nothing until a slight chance of light rain late Saturday. Rain will increase Saturday night with numerous showers Sunday. Thunderstorms will also become involved by Sunday night. So look for numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday with rain heavy at times. Some of our computer guidance that specializes in precipitation amounts, suggests 4 inches of rain for this whole event. One my my meteorologist friends suggested we sit down around the table with a cup of coffee and talk to that model. Weather models are too dumb to know when a historic drought is under way and droughts simply hate big rain events.

[meldan98]

I know that this will sound silly, but what does scattered thunder showers mean exactly. I just checked the 10 day forcast and that is listed for 12/5.

[SurferStitch]

Boy, I really hope your voodooland model is totally wrong. I've been dreading days of rain, so hopefully it will be a complete turnaround when you get back.

I don't care about cold. I just hate rain and cloudy skies in my pictures. :(

[Beast_fanatic]

I know that this will sound silly, but what does scattered thunder showers mean exactly. I just checked the 10 day forcast and that is listed for 12/5.


Scattered means they aren't widespread. It may be raining in the Magic Kingdom, but not in Epcot, or it may not rain anywhere on property at all.