WDW Weather Forecast - October 31 - Nov 16, 2007

[Strmchsr]

Each day in October, usually between 11 and 1 central time, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment. If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Wednesday pm, October 31, 2007 :mickey:
:mpumpkin: Happy Halloween!!! :ghost: :bat:
Conditions will begin to improve dramatically beginning this afternoon. Finally the high pressure will move and the extreme winds will begin to weaken. You'll still see winds 10-15 mph through Friday, but that's better than the 20ish mph winds of the last 2-3 days. There may be a couple of light showers around today, but nothing big with a high of 83. Again, a couple of light showers will be possible tomorrow with a high 82-84. By Saturday cooler, drier air rushes in and Orlando will see highs 79-81 and lows 58-60 with mostly sunny skies through next Wednesday, at least. The GFS doesn't have any rain chances at all until around Nov 8 when it brings some isolated showers back into the forecast, but nothing major. In fact, going way out into voodooland, the models don't really have any kind of major rain event through the end of the run. The tropics stay active, which could produce something, but the major storm track now seems to stay north of FL. Again, this is voodooland which can and will change, but for now it looks like temps stay close to 80 for day time highs with only a minimal chance of an afternoon shower on any day after the 8th.

Travel Impact :plane: :car: :drive:
At 1:45 pm CDT San Francisco is at a 1hr delay due to low ceilings, but the rest of the country is delay-free and looks to stay that way today and tomorrow.

Tropics :fan:
Tropical Storm Noel is still very much in the weather picture. His movement has not obeyed the projections much of the time. He was still lolly-gagging near the north coast of Cuba with sustained winds near 50 mph, which is an increase, and he may increase more in the next few hours. He was moving west for a time this morning, but a turn to the north is expected later today. The latest tracking chart from the NHC still keeps the center off the SE coast of Florida. It should move through the Western Bahamas and then up through the Western Atlantic. Noel, along with a high pressure area well to the north, was creating some strong winds and beach erosion along the Florida coast. There really shouldn't be any impact at all on WDW, though our friends in the maritime provinces of Canada will see some impact by Sunday. The NAM keeps the storm much closer to the the FL coast than the other models. If it's right that could continue wind and some storms in the next day or so, but I still don't see that as likely.

[Dyanna]

I see that next weeks weather will be mid to upper 80's which is fine by us. How is the humidity going to be? We are leaving on Sat Oct 6th for a week. Should we also plan on taking our rain gear with us each day in case of showers?

[Strmchsr]

I see that next weeks weather will be mid to upper 80's which is fine by us. How is the humidity going to be? We are leaving on Sat Oct 6th for a week. Should we also plan on taking our rain gear with us each day in case of showers?

Definitely plan on having a poncho. You may not need it as the showers, especially next week, will be hit and miss, but my guess is you'll need it at least once while you're down there, if not more. Fortunately, you won't need it for long. As for the humidity, it's going to be pretty high through this weekend. Right now the models are pointing towards some drier air next week, which would mean lower humidity. Just keep checking the forecast throughout the week and I'll keep you up to date as to whether that front will actually make it through.

[Dyanna]

Sorry, but forgot to ask...what is the temp in the evenings like? Should we take a lightweight sweater or pants?

[Strmchsr]

Sorry, but forgot to ask...what is the temp in the evenings like? Should we take a lightweight sweater or pants?

Temps will generally be in the mid to upper 70s in the evenings, falling to low 70s for the lows. If you tend to get cold easily it wouldn't hurt to have pants or a lightweight sweater. If you're not generally sensitive to cold, you might pack something just in case but I doubt you'll need it.

[MsMin]

Chris,
Can I get a huge favor??? I'm not too worried about the weather there as I am about the weather here while I'm gone. It's getting a little late in the season for us to have a big storm, this far north in the gulf (Baton Rouge) but I'm worried about anything hitting here and my house is left unprepared, mainly things in the yard that may blow in a storm and come through a window, like patio furniture(it's wrought iron not plastic so it would take a lot of wind :fan:).
Historically, from what I've observed this time of year more storms will take the pattern they are in now --cutting across Florida.
With your educated guess on a scale of 1-10
(1 --don't worry to 10-- yes, pick up everything and board the windows) should I pick up my lawn furniture and secure things around the house? Or am I being silly.
Oh yes, and I don't hold you accountable- just looking for some reassurance I suppose.
When we lost our house in Camile we had returned home early from a vacation in Fla due to the storm so maybe it's old jitters. :hide:

[Strmchsr]

My gut reaction is better be safe than sorry. The tropics are extremely active. This morning's 06z run has a hurricane hitting Louisiana on Oct 12. Do I believe that will actually happen? No. That's too far out for the models to pick up on a specific storm that hasn't even developed yet. However, there is so much potential in the Gulf and Caribbean right now that it could happen and I wouldn't want you caught off guard so go ahead and prepare and then you can take your trip and not worry. That said, if you wait until early next week before you leave I'll be able to be more specific as to whether it looks like there's a potential for anything to develop.

[Alpha Jeanie]

My husband and I are leaving from Houston this Friday morning for a no kids extended weekend to celebrate our birthday's at Disney World.

I am very concerned about the possible tropical storms/hurricanes coming to Florida and ALSO the possible tropical storms/hurricanes coming to Houston. We will be gone from Oct 5th thru Oct 8th. The grandparents will be at home keeping our kids and dog while we are gone. I feel that if the weather is good for us in Florida it will probably be rotten in Houston and visa versa.

Please give me some advise that will settle my nerves with this tropical weather approaching!!!

[MsMin]

My gut reaction is better be safe than sorry. The tropics are extremely active. This morning's 06z run has a hurricane hitting Louisiana on Oct 12. Do I believe that will actually happen? No. That's too far out for the models to pick up on a specific storm that hasn't even developed yet. However, there is so much potential in the Gulf and Caribbean right now that it could happen and I wouldn't want you caught off guard so go ahead and prepare and then you can take your trip and not worry. That said, if you wait until early next week before you leave I'll be able to be more specific as to whether it looks like there's a potential for anything to develop.
Thanks for the info and I will check Monday. I will secure as much as I can in the lawn e.g. take down the hanging plants just to be safe. Believe it or not I feel better thinking there could be a chance and be prepared then leaving in ignorant bliss then worrying. I'm trained to err on the side of caution and you'd think I'd practice it at home. :D
Thanks again. 6 days and preparing...

[Strmchsr]

Please give me some advise that will settle my nerves with this tropical weather approaching!!!

There's a little tropical disturbance moving through the Gulf today, but it's not showing any real signs of organization. If it becomes organized it should still be pretty weak so no big deal. The only other storm threat out there doesn't look like it'll develop until after you're home, and even then all of the models take it into Mexico. Check back tomorrow, but for now I think you'll be fine.

[mickeefan]

We just left yesterday and they were predicting rain showers every day this coming week.
This last week we had raid every day, but luckily no lightning and thunder showers.

[Strmchsr]

We just left yesterday and they were predicting rain showers every day this coming week.

I wouldn't be concerned about it. Rain chances are much lower in the upcoming days (after today) then they have been in quite a while. There's still the chance for an isolated afternoon thunderstorm (which is what you're seeing on the forecast), but they are becoming increasingly less likely, especially after Thursday.

[Momof2boys]

Thanks Chris - we leave next week and I've been waiting to start checking on your awesome updates !

[ndbulsu]

on an almost hourly basis. It will go from a prediction of sunny with 10-20% chance of rain to cloudy and 60% chance and back again in the course of a single day. Is this due to the uncertain track of the low down near Belize? Thanks.

[Strmchsr]

on an almost hourly basis. It will go from a prediction of sunny with 10-20% chance of rain to cloudy and 60% chance and back again in the course of a single day. Is this due to the uncertain track of the low down near Belize? Thanks.

Nah. That low down near Belize won't bother anything. The main reason you're seeing that is that there's lots of model madness going on. The tropics are extremely unsettled and so every model run has a different solution as to what the tropics are going to do. The Weather Channel and similar sites use automated forecasting for their local forecasts so every time a new model run is done, the forecast will change, especially in the long range. The models are also not handling the trough well at the end of the month and are waffling as to the strength of a cold front for next week. Basically, I'm trying each forecast here to look at several consecutive model runs as well as various models are try to come up with some consensus out of this craziness. I know the uncertainty is frustrating. Sorry about that.

[Septbride2002]

Dear Weather Guru :notworth:

Getting ready to head down there and will be there through the 22nd. - think I should pack pants for my 1 year old with lows in the 60's? Will this only be at night?

Thanks!

[Strmchsr]

:D

It wouldn't be a bad idea to have some pants for the child. Maybe just sweat pants or something you can slip on easily. Carry it around in your backpack/stroller/diaper bag, etc and that way you'll be prepared. There will be a bit of a north breeze, so it could be cool in the evenings and first thing in the morning. Especially if you're going to be near water or on a boat at any time. During the day, however, it'll be comfortably warm so you shouldn't need pants then. I would think by 9 or 10 am you'd be fine, and you wouldn't need the pants until after dark.

[Sunshine1010]

Stormchaser (aka - Buddha),

Leaving on Monday morning. Will be there from Monday-Friday.

Weather?

...little concerned because the weather channel states the area will have a 60% chance of rain on Wed/Thurs/Fri.

Help.......your opinion?

From - the one who cannot grasp the grasshopper.

[Strmchsr]

Well, I don't quite have the bald head like Buddah (working on it), but I'll try to give you the best answer I can. :D

What the weather channel is picking up on is one model run. As I've noted before, all the weather channel forecasts are automated, so they'll change every run. Right now the models are not handling the long range well. It's picking up on a potential front for next week that 1 model is showing. The others aren't. All of the models are showing a fairly strong front around the 22nd, but they are divided about the one for next Wednesday. Give it another couple of days and lets see how the models shake out. No matter what, I don't think you're looking at any all day rain out, and most of your vacation should be cooler and less humid. Also, I don't think you're looking at any big thunderstorms, so even if you have rain, you'll be able to put on a poncho and have a great time. Sorry to be vague, but I'll try to get more specific as the models fall in line. My gut feeling right now is you'll be fine and maybe see rain on one of those days, but not both. I can't say "final answer" on that just yet, though.

[DisneyDudet]

It looks like it will be very nice for the Intercot Meet! I will probably need a sweater or something, since we will be on the water. I hope firework smoke won't be blowing into us!

Thanks so much!

[Momof2boys]

Looks like the weather is shaping up perfectly for our trip - low to mid 80's and not so humid :thumbsup:

Try to keep Mother Nature on track, ok Chris ? Thanks ;)

[Strmchsr]

Try to keep Mother Nature on track, ok Chris ? Thanks ;)

Hey, I'm just in public relations, not management. You'll have to speak to the Big Boss about that. :D

[Iluvpooh]

I was just checking out your home page. Too cool-A pastor that blogs. Maybe you could talk to ours and tell him it would save a lot of money on newsletters.:D

Thanks for the weather updates. We will be there October 27th-Nov. 3rd and I am concerned that I may need to pack 2 wardrobes. One summer and one fall. How big of a temp. drop do you expect from the begining of the week to the end?

[Strmchsr]

We will be there October 27th-Nov. 3rd and I am concerned that I may need to pack 2 wardrobes. One summer and one fall. How big of a temp. drop do you expect from the begining of the week to the end?

Right now I'm not trusting the models enough to say. I think by the time you get there the main front will have passed through (and Alabama will have had its first frost), so the temps will be down, but not down excessively. We're talking mid to upper 70s and by the time you get there I think you're looking at closer to 80 most days for a high. The main factor will be cloud cover/rain potential and it'll still be a couple of days before the models begin to show anything consistent in that area, so just keep checking.

[Mommy2boys]

Heading down next week. hoping for great weather :mickey:

[murphy1]

Hi Chris!! Thanks as usual for your hard work! I am really excited to be going. I keep reading we will have 20 to 30 % chance of showers and checked all around the area from Lakeland, Gainesville and Orlando, so that doesn't seem too bad. That's good right? I mean it isn't like the storms we get during the Summer everyday that I was used to. I hope you have a wonderful trip, I can't believe it's almost time for you to go! I really hope you win a dream, you really deserve it!

[Strmchsr]

Hey, Shari.

Well, actually for next week it is kind of the summer afternoon variety of thunderstorms you'll be seeing. Scattered to isolated, which means you may or may not have one come over, but they'll pop up in the late afternoon. Shouldn't be anything sustained until next weekend when a cold front will be approaching. Even that doesn't currently look to be a big rain producer.

Thanks for the good wishes. I hope you have a great trip, and we're definitely looking forward to ours very soon.

[murphy1]

I'm so glad we ARE getting rain in Atlanta! Our lake is really drying up and we are in dire need of it, so I don't mind.

[Strmchsr]

I'm so glad we ARE getting rain in Atlanta! Our lake is really drying up and we are in dire need of it, so I don't mind.

We're hitting the same thing here in Alabama. It's been so dry the Baptists are starting to sprinkle and the Catholics are trying to turn wine back to water.

[JerseyWDWfan]

I could cry! We leave the 29th and come home the 5th of Nov. If it rains the whole time we are going to be so unhappy. :(

What do I do for little kids and strollers? Bring ponchos or raincoats?

Kristina

[Strmchsr]

What do I do for little kids and strollers? Bring ponchos or raincoats?

First off, don't get too upset yet. This forecast is in no way set in stone. I just don't believe the front will sit stationary for that many days. It's possible, but I'd give it a couple of more days before deciding one way or the other.

Now, if the forecast as it now stands is correct - it won't rain all day every day, but when it does ponchos for the kids will be perfect. The WDW strollers have covers, but you can also buy stroller ponchos to help keep the kids dry. I don't think thunderstorms will be a big issue any of these days, just rain, which will make ponchos even easier to use.

Rainy days in WDW usually mean low crowds, so look on the bright side. I'll keep you updated.

[mickey-mouse35]

I'm still not 100% in agreement with the GFS, but all the models currently are indicating a pretty wet week next week.

Say it isn't so! :( We leave Saturday, and I'll be checking every day for possible changes and better news!
In Texas, it's been upper 80s until cold front last night. Now it's COLD--have the heaters on. Crazy weather!!!

[Iluvpooh]

NO NO NO!! We leave Saturday too. For my DDs 3 & 4s first trips. Please no rain!!

[JerseyWDWfan]

Hi - What's the difference between isolated and scattered thunderstorms?

And with the rain for Oct 29-Nov 5th, what will the UV index be?

Kristina

:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Hi - What's the difference between isolated and scattered thunderstorms?
And with the rain for Oct 29-Nov 5th, what will the UV index be?
Kristina
:mickey:

Hi, Kristina.
If you're leaving on the 29th, check with me on the 28th for a revised UV forecast, but right now it looks like it'll be 5-7 for the first part of the trip and then 7-8 for the latter part.
Isolated means there are one or two lone showers. It's just an individual cell popping up here and there. Scattered means many cells or a wider coverage of rain, but that coverage is not 100%. These are pockets of rain, not a solid mass, but also not individual cells.

[mickey-mouse35]

Uh, stupid question--:) what's a UV index?

[Strmchsr]

Uh, stupid question--:) what's a UV index?

The only stupid question is the one not asked. :mickey:

UV index is the ultraviolet radiation index. You might think of it as the "how quickly will I sunburn" index. It ranges from 1 to 10. A ten means the sun's UV rays will be intense and you need to make sure you're wearing sunglasses and applying a high spf sunscreen often. On the other end of the spectrum a 1 means total overcast and the chance of UV damage is slim to none.

[vamaggie]

OK not to be too freaked out: When you talk about a "severe weather event" on Nov 5th what does that mean? We are going Nov 1-6 and am hoping for it to be warm and not too rainy. Severe weather event (even in voodooland time frame) is freaking me out a little!!! Will we be able to go to the parks, fly out on the 6th?!!?!?!?!

[JerseyWDWfan]

We fly out the 5th - or at least I hope we will be able to - severe weather? Yikes!

Kristina:)

[Strmchsr]

A severe weather event means, unfortunately, exactly what it sounds like - the potential will exist for strong to severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes. most folks forget that that November-December is the secondary tornado season for the south. We usually think of severe weather in the March-May time frame, but it's just as common in November-December in the south.

That said, it really isn't anything to be too excited about right now. These things come and go on the models. When I only see them on 1 run, I don't mention them, when I see them on multiple runs I try to say something with a disclaimer. I really don't like doing forecasts more than 7 days because it's just about useless but I know folks on here want to know, so I go as far as I can with the models and do as good as i can with the model insanity.

As for flying out, yes, you'll still be able to fly out even if there are delays. Even if the planes have to fly in between individual supercells they can. Or they wait for the squall line to pass. Whatever they have to do, but you'll make it.

Like I said, don't worry. Chances are this feature will be gone in a day or two. And we'll be on to something else in voodooland. I'll keep you updated.

[vamaggie]

Thanks Chris! I will try not to freak out for the next few days until we know more for sure. Now I have to go back and check my packing stuff to make sure I have enough appropriate clothes in case we get wet.

[Strmchsr]

Thanks Chris! I will try not to freak out for the next few days until we know more for sure.

That's right. No freaking out until I say so. I will issue an official "freak out warning" when and if it's necessary. :D

[vamaggie]

Thanks again Chris! I like todays projections MUUUUUCCCCH better! Will silence the freaking out til I hear it from you!! Enjoy the weekend!

[illini]

I know I shouldn't panic with the looong term forecast, but I have to say that I'm able to breathe again! I've been pretty freaked out by the severe storms that had been showing up for 11/11-12. Glad that they look a little less intense now.

[Strmchsr]

I've been pretty freaked out by the severe storms that had been showing up for 11/11-12. Glad that they look a little less intense now.

Well, the good news is that even if strong storms do move through, generally in FL it'll be a squall line, not super cells which means it'll be through quickly. Right now, though, it looks much better.

[andypooh]

Can you give me an idea what the evening (8-10pm) and early morning (7-8am) lows should be about the week of 11/3-11? Thanks a lot.

[Strmchsr]

In the evening you'll be looking at temps in the mid 60s and in the morning it'll be mid 50s to around 60.

[andypooh]

much appreciated