Ingrid??? Should we be worried???

[wdwgirl21]

Anyone else worried about the possibility of Ingrid becoming a hurricane and heading to Florida? We are headed down on the 21st for 10 days of fun in the World and hope she doesn't decide to make an appearance! Anyone heard anything about the possible track? I've heard south of Florida, to Florida, and taking a curve out to sea... What happens if they take direct aim when you are supposed to be there?? We didn't purchase trip insurance... now I wish we had!!!

[BigRedDad]

Well, hurricanes are near impossible to predict, especially how far out that storm is. Unfortunately, you will not know more until Tues or Wed next week. That storm could go anywhere from Central America to out to sea.

Models begin to be more predictable for an East Coast hit if the path stays north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. At that point, there are slightly more defined possibilities: Texas to out to sea.

If you want to try to be a Hurricane predictor, I would not worry about the storm itself. You need to watch where the High and Low pressure systems form and track over the next several days. The strength of those systems will play a part as well. Hurricanes, like electricity, tend to follow the path of least resistance. If a pressure system is strong, it can pull or push the path of the hurricane.

My recommendation is not to concern yourself between now and Wed of next week. There is nothing that you can do.

[wedway fan]

while i've never been in FL for a hurricane, from just watching the news over the years it seems orlando is far enough inland to escape the severe effects of all but the worst storms. unless this turns out to be some devastating katrina-like storm, even a direct florida hit of a cat 2-3 storm shouldn't slow you down in the world for more than a day or two. plenty of time left in your 10 day trip to enjoy yourself.

[bcornette]

I have been in central florida during a hurricane and the biggest issue will be rain. Unless of course it hits land as a Cat5 and comes directly inland.

[Strmchsr]

As BRD said, there's no way to tell where it will go. The models are in total lack of agreement right now. As I update the forecast thread in this forum I'll give you the scenarios and which looks most likely, but for now don't worry about. You'll be fine either way.

[RBrooksC]

From what the Weather Channel has on their website, the projected path through next Tuesday has it north of the Leeward Islands. It has it curving almost north-northwest at that point. It is a good bet until about Sunday morning, as of right now.

Also, from looking at a map, with the current path prediction, the most likely strike point if it doesn't head out to sea, would be the Outer Banks area. Now, this all depends on the weather coming off the US. A strong cold/warm front or a strong low/high pressure system could steer this thing anywhere.

[mouseketeer mom]

We were at The Beach Club in 2005 when they were expecting a hurricane on our departure day. I was so hoping our flight would be cancelled. It wasn't, but I have to say, I didn't feel afraid at all like I thought I might. Everyone in WDW was talking about it, and it just seemed like a really safe place to be if the hurricane hit. Disney seemed to have a system, and a plan to take care of its guests should a hurricane strike.

[DDuck66]

There are just too many variables right now. I belong to another weather site and the first problem for the storm will be whether or not it can make it through a large portion of wind shear that could completely destroy the storm or at least drastically weaken it. I would check on the storm next week and see what is up then. I have lived in Floroda for the past 8+ years and the best thing to do is to keep an eye on things and be prepared.
I was also at WDW when Hurricane Charley came through and while the parks closed early for the that day, they were all open the next day except for the AK which had a lot of trees down on the access road where the CM's enter the park.

[RBrooksC]

Here is the most likely scenerio right now. The storm will move north of the Leeward Islands by the end of this weekend. By the middle of next week, there will be shearing winds coming off the US coast that should reduce the strength of the storm back down to a tropical depression. These shearing winds should also push the storm north away from the coast and back out to sea.

As with all tropical systems, it does bear watching but the chances of this storm becoming anything more than a minor footnote this year is very slim.

[Strmchsr]

Here is the most likely scenerio right now. The storm will move north of the Leeward Islands by the end of this weekend. By the middle of next week, there will be shearing winds coming off the US coast that should reduce the strength of the storm back down to a tropical depression. These shearing winds should also push the storm north away from the coast and back out to sea.

While the storm will certainly enter into less favorable conditions in the coming days, it's final path is a complete mystery. The only model currently taking it out to sea is completely unreliable. The NHC keeps it on a NW course, paralleling the US, but not going towards it, the UK has it meandering around, and the GFDL turns it towards the Gulf. The other models are all split. A weak ridge sets up over the eastern US next week, which I'm not sure will be strong enough to push the storm away, but also may be strong enough to keep it offshore. So, I'm thinking the UK model may be on to something with the storm just sort of meandering around and not doing anything for a while.