Crowd calendar accurate?

doodleboy · #1 04-14-2009, 09:58 PM

I just looked at crowd calendar for our trip May 7 -17, and prediction was pretty much 8's across the board with a 9 thrown in for good measure. Is there an event that would be bringing in more people than normal for early May? We visit every year at this time and it is never really that crowded even with F&GS. I found it odd that the couple weeks before that had lower crowd predictions, since some areas of the country are still on Spring Break. This is why we always wait until May. I am betting they are wrong, but only time will tell. We were there for this past Halloween and predictions were way off for that week as well. Does anyone verify that calendar after the fact, or is it there to just get us worked up?

mouse2508 · #2 04-14-2009, 10:48 PM

likewise, we've been at other times of the year but are also planning a trip in May (end of month). Interested what to expect for crowds as well, anxious to see feedback on this post.

Twinsowner · #3 04-14-2009, 11:21 PM

Was it crowded or not crowded at Halloween last year??

tjstrike · #4 04-15-2009, 12:15 AM

End of March predicted 6's,7's and 8's and it was pretty much right on. It was crowded.

Toad_Passenger · #5 04-15-2009, 07:25 AM

It seems that the trend this year is for the parks to be more crowded than previous years. Many people who go down at the same times every year are reporting seeing larger crowds than normal.

The important thing is that 8's & 9's are still VERY manageable if you know where you want to go, and know the limits of your traveling party.

Disnamic Duo · #6 04-15-2009, 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Twinsowner

Was it crowded or not crowded at Halloween last year??

We were there Halloween week (10/26 thru 11/1) last year, and it was NOT crowded. But, the crowd predicter we read said it wouldn't be...

doodleboy · #7 04-15-2009, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Twinsowner

Was it crowded or not crowded at Halloween last year??

I did NOT find it to be crowded this past Halloween. I was even able to get FP for TSM after the park had been open for a while. We have also been there at end of May (Memorial Day weekend included in 2007) when crowd calendar predicted 8 & 9, and found it to NOT be that crowded. I just wonder how accuracy is confirmed unless WDW releases the gate count to verify projections after the fact. The crowd calendar just upped their number recently in response to reports of it being crowded after the fact. That doesn't sound like a prediction, it sounds like a reaction. I will be glad to let you know what I found when I return on May 17th.

Kenny1113 · #8 04-15-2009, 11:10 AM

In Jan the crowd calendar predicted 7's and 8's and the parks were the least crowded I have seen in years. On the otherhand we were there last week and 10's were predicted and they were right on. Again to what someone else said if you know what you want to do and do it right, even 10's can be manageable.

beksy · #9 04-15-2009, 01:56 PM

where is this?

MOJoe · #10 04-15-2009, 02:43 PM

The crowd calender at Touring Plans.com is not there "just to get us worked up." It is a useful tool that predicts the maximum wait times at the MK headliner attractions. People assume, rightly or wrongly, that the crowd levels predicted are spread evenly throughout the other parks, even though that is not exactly what the crowd calender does. And it is verified, several times a year. It's accuracy is normally within 5 minutes. Is it perfect? No. Does it give a good indication to the crowds at MK? Yes.

And one more thing. To quote Fred Hazelton, the UG's chief statistitian, "When Disney gets it wrong, it is hard for us to get it right." It seems that many people did not take a Disney trip last year, making those crowd forecasts look too high. Suddenly, now, those people have returned, causing Disney to scramble and the UG to raise attendance forecasts for the foreseable future.

So what is really going on? The causes are many and debatable, but one thing looks certain. Attendance at WDW is going to be larger than last year.

BluewaterBrad · #11 04-15-2009, 04:42 PM

I dont know. I just checked out that crowd calender. It seems pretty vague to me.

doodleboy · #12 04-15-2009, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MOJoe

So what is really going on? The causes are many and debatable, but one thing looks certain. Attendance at WDW is going to be larger than last year.

It was my understanding from another thread that the gate was actually down 3%-4% this year. Maybe the crowds being larger than expected during a recession as bad as anything we've seen since the depression is being misinterpreted as heavier than normal crowds. Is it possible that WDW expected things to be dead and the 4/3 promo worked to get people to plan a vacation, now they are having to extend hours and scramble to get staff to work after telling them they weren't needed? Add to that that many people are staying off property to lower vacation costs, and WDW doesn't have a clue as to how many people are offsite. Then all of a sudden they are taken by surprise at the rope drop.

MOJoe · #13 04-16-2009, 10:26 AM

Doodle,
If the gate is down 3% then it is from earlier in the year. At that time, Disney began coming up with promotions to reverse the downward trend, and also began to plan for layoffs. So yes they did expect lower crowds this year, based on everything they were seeing, which includes Orlando area hotels. They are very aware of occupancy rates, as well as traffic at MCO.
Then in March - Wham! All of a sudden, Disney starts seeing a surge in attendance. Eveyone's forecasts are put into question, as Disney does what you suggested, scramble to extend hours and tell some staff that it looks like we need you after all.

The surge in attendance is not being misinterpreted. These are real, capacity crowds. It's just that no one expected them. Disney has a very good idea what crowd levels should be, and will be. But this time is a little different.

I think the wild card in all this is the local population. Those who are within driving distance, and will return home or check in a hotel after a day at the parks. These day trippers are much harder to forecast. Add to that those who, like you suggest, are driving and staying offsite to save money, and you can have a much harder time forecasting crowds.

In my opinion, these are the people who are making the difference right now. Will they continue to show up? If gas prices stay at current prices, i say yes. If gas prices surge again, and the economy tanks again, then all bets are off - again.

doodleboy · #14 04-16-2009, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MOJoe

I think the wild card in all this is the local population. Those who are within driving distance, and will return home or check in a hotel after a day at the parks. These day trippers are much harder to forecast. Add to that those who, like you suggest, are driving and staying offsite to save money, and you can have a much harder time forecasting crowds.

In my opinion, these are the people who are making the difference right now. Will they continue to show up? If gas prices stay at current prices, i say yes. If gas prices surge again, and the economy tanks again, then all bets are off - again.

I do think your points are valid. I just don't think that crowd calendar is as accurate as some folks think it is. I have seen it on many of my trips.

I think another factor during this Spring Break time period is people cutting back from a vacation to Mexico or the islands, and keeping it local in an effort to save money.

I am keeping my fingers crossed that my May 7-17 trip is so close to end of school year, and without major holidays that crowds will be lower than 8-9. I can see the locals affecting weekends at anytime, but we have always had low crowds during the week at that time because most are hesitant to pull kids out of school at that time.

MOJoe · #15 04-16-2009, 01:29 PM

I guess the bottom line is, in my opinion the crowd calender is normally quite accurate. But these are not normal times.

For your sake and mine, (we go in early June) i hope the crowds are more normal than they have been lately. Please post back and let everyone know what you think, after you get home. I, along with many others would like to know what is happening down there.

Good Luck.

doodleboy · #16 04-16-2009, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MOJoe

I guess the bottom line is, in my opinion the crowd calender is normally quite accurate. But these are not normal times.

For your sake and mine, (we go in early June) i hope the crowds are more normal than they have been lately. Please post back and let everyone know what you think, after you get home. I, along with many others would like to know what is happening down there.

Good Luck.

I'm usually not a trip report person, but things being the way they are lately I am going to make an effort to put something together this time around. Even if it is only to report crowd levels and wait times. I did also notice that touring plans had a twitter account to do just that, but it didn't seem like it was being used for that purpose. You would think that WDW would have some way of communicating wait times for attractions electronically to help even out crowds in the parks. It seems to me it would be more helpful than the one kiosk in the middle of most of the parks.