WDW Weather Forecast - April 30, 2007

[Strmchsr]

Each day in April I'll update this first post (usually by noon CT, though it may be afternoons on Sundays) with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment. If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Monday pm, April 30, 2007
As we end April and begin May it's going to feel more like June. I see nothing to change my thoughts on the highs being mid to upper 80s thought the end of the model run on May 16. Also, not much in the way of rain. A big problem if you have allergies will be smoke. You can see the haze on the visible satellite photo from various forest fires. So, if you have allergy issues or asthma, please be warned. As for when it might rain, this Thursday evening into Friday morning a weakening short wave will move through the area and kick off some very widely scattered showers. Nothing really to worry about. Then around May 9 the GFS really shoots the dew points up. Daytime heating combined with maritime tropical air can spark one of those afternoon thunderstorms for which Orlando is famous during the summer on almost any day. So, expect that for the May 9-15 timeframe. I'm not saying it will rain any of those days, just saying the afternoon thunderstorm pattern is building in. That's in voodooland, though, and the pattern could change over the next couple of days. The only other half decent rain chance I see is WAY out there around May 15-16 and with it being that far out I wouldn't get too excited just yet.

Travel Impact
A slight risk for severe weather exists today for southern Wisconsin and southern Texas. Neither of those areas of storms are currently causing delays, but La Guardia and Newark are both at 1 hour delays due to crosswinds. I think if the chicken were crossing the runway Newark would have a 1 hour delay. They just seem to consistently run behind. Hopefully none of you are trying to commute or get to a flight in San Francisco as that will be the biggest delay of the day.

For tomorrow, a slight risk again exists for southern Texas, and also for an area in the Ohio Valley covering all of Ohio, northern KY, eastern IN, and western PA. Some of those thunderstorms could impact Dallas. Detroit and Cincy would be the other major airports to watch for delays.

[pogo]

Thanks Dr. Chris.

But I want to put in a request for the needed rain to show up either before the 19th or after the 24th, please. See what you can do for me buddy !

[Strmchsr]

Originally Posted by pogo

Thanks Dr. Chris.

But I want to put in a request for the needed rain to show up either before the 19th or after the 24th, please. See what you can do for me buddy !

Well, as you know i'm in public relations, not management, but I'll be sure to send a memo to the Boss for you.

[pogo]

Cool.

Thanks.

[Strmchsr]

Okay, I know you don't want to hear this, but here it is anyway. The official "hurricane forecast" for 2007.

The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be “very active,” with 17 named storms, a top storms forecaster said Tuesday.

Those named storms are expected to include five intense or major hurricanes, according to forecaster William Gray’s team at Colorado State University. Gray said there is a 74 percent probability of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast. The team’s forecasts are based global oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

Last year, Gray's forecast -- as well as government forecasts -- was higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced. Gray's team said the reason was a late El Nino that altered oceanic conditions.

There were nine named Atlantic storms and five hurricanes, two of them major, in 2006. That was considered a "near normal" season. None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast.

The devastating 2005 season had 28 named storms, 15 of them hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes hit the U.S. coast, the worst among them Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and leveled parts of the Gulf Coast.

Gray has spent more than 40 years in tropical weather research. He heads the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State.

Gray is very respected in the meteorological community, and is usually pretty close on his predictions. Of course, the last 2 years he's been WAY off. No one could predict the massive season of 2005 and no one caught the very slow season of 2006, mainly because El Nino became much stronger than it was originally thought.

[Strmchsr]

New tornado watch issued. These storms are looking mean, so pay attention if you're in the way.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF JOPLIN
MISSOURI TO 20 MILES EAST OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 109...WW 110...

DISCUSSION...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED. SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
LINES/BOWS AND SUPERCELLS. TORNADOS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SUPERCELL WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS DEVELOPING
SEWD FROM SRN MO INTO LOWER OH VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.

[Strmchsr]

This includes the Orlando area:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 945 AM UNTIL 500
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ORLANDO FLORIDA TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...WW 147...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A CONTINUED RISK OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
BOWS WITHIN THE LINE...POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. PARTS OF SOUTH FL WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HEATING
TODAY...WHICH MAY OFFSET WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MAINTAIN
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

[Strmchsr]

This is important to know. Be careful about dropping anything burning.

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
433 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO
9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
CRITICAL DURATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THEREFORE THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. IN ITS WAKE...THE AIRMASS RAPIDLY
DRIES OUT WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FLZ007-009>019-026>029-034-180100-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0057.070417T1600Z-070418T0100Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
DIXIE-
433 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2007 /333 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/
TODAY TO 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/
TODAY TO 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

[dizneyfreek]

Thanks for the good news Chris!
will be there may 3-10 at WL....Can't wait!