Rumors for Next DVC Location

[baldburke]

With the half-baked launch of the Poly underway is there any chatter regarding future DVC plans at WDW? Poly was the last of the deluxe resorts to get DVC tie-in or they'd probably have to do a whole new resort like OKW or SS? Maybe they could convert and upgrade a moderate to re-engineer an existing location? Seems like they've add a new DVC location at least every 4 to 5 years since OKW and there doesn't seem to be a reason to stop now.

[buzznwoodysmom]

I would hate to see them "upgrade" or convert a moderate for DVC purposes. To me, one of the great things about WDW is that there are resort categories for all budgets. With only 4 moderates to choose from as it is, converting one to DVC would not be good news for those who stay primarily in moderate resorts.

I understand that DVC is a money maker for Disney, but I hope the madness doesn't spill over into the less expensive resort categories.

[VWL Mom]

Rumors have been swirling for quite some time that WL is next on the conversion block complete with buildings over the water. As an owner at VWL and a WL fan in general this makes me very sad.

[Aurora]

Rumors have been swirling for quite some time that WL is next on the conversion block complete with buildings over the water. As an owner at VWL and a WL fan in general this makes me very sad.

i agree, Lynn. i would be surprised to see DVC build on the water without first watching what the Poly bungalows do. If they're successful, there's nothing to prevent DVC from continuing to build what guests will pay for.

The larger picture for Disney is that regular hotel rooms continue to be discounted in order to fill them, and DVC is not only paid for in advance, but keeps guests coming to the parks year after year.

Yes, DVC is a money-maker for them, but the overall problem is that the regular hotels aren't so much anymore. It's a response to the changing marketplace. Once a balance is reached, where DVC sales growth slows and the percentage of regular hotel rooms increase in bookings, DVC building will slow as well.

[baldburke]

i agree, Lynn. i would be surprised to see DVC build on the water without first watching what the Poly bungalows do. If they're successful, there's nothing to prevent DVC from continuing to build what guests will pay for.

The larger picture for Disney is that regular hotel rooms continue to be discounted in order to fill them, and DVC is not only paid for in advance, but keeps guests coming to the parks year after year.

Yes, DVC is a money-maker for them, but the overall problem is that the regular hotels aren't so much anymore. It's a response to the changing marketplace. Once a balance is reached, where DVC sales growth slows and the percentage of regular hotel rooms increase in bookings, DVC building will slow as well.

As a finance guy it's a very interesting question. According to the 2014 annual report domestic resort occupancy was 83% (including DVC), far better than the US average of 63%. Disney's average spend per person per day was $280 domestically for 2014.

We know for many families its a sacrifice to go to DIsney and most try to get the best bang for their buck. For sure the best margins are probably on the single to two day non-AP visitors.

I'm sure it's an interesting model they use to manage between accommodations, park admissions, food & beverage, other services and product sales. There's probably little variance on admissions and products, but the accommodations and food & beverage get the most play for discounts.

Regardless, Disney manages to get nearly a 22% return on the parks and their revenue is up over 30% in the last seven years. As you note in your response predicting the future and sustaining those sales is tough.

[Aurora]

As a finance guy it's a very interesting question. According to the 2014 annual report domestic resort occupancy was 83% (including DVC), far better than the US average of 63%. Disney's average spend per person per day was $280 domestically for 2014.

We know for many families its a sacrifice to go to DIsney and most try to get the best bang for their buck. For sure the best margins are probably on the single to two day non-AP visitors.

I'm sure it's an interesting model they use to manage between accommodations, park admissions, food & beverage, other services and product sales. There's probably little variance on admissions and products, but the accommodations and food & beverage get the most play for discounts.

Regardless, Disney manages to get nearly a 22% return on the parks and their revenue is up over 30% in the last seven years. As you note in your response predicting the future and sustaining those sales is tough.

Too bad DVC is included in that 83%. I'd like to see the difference between DVC occupancy (using member points, not cash) and regular resort occupancy. Do you know if that's publicly broken down anywhere?

I'd also like to see park attendance numbers compared with passholder admittance and compare those figures to DVC growth, but those numbers will never see the light of day.

[MyDisneyworld]

It seems like DVC is always higher than 83% because if I try to make a change to the reservation I can't find the rooms I need.
I would like to see the rate by resort.

[FiggyFan]

Each DVC resort, in its annual meeting notice, provides the amount of "breakage" income they expect for the following year. This is defined cash rental fees for DVC - owned rooms that were not reserved by members. This would provide a rather coarse measure, and does not include the portion of the resort that Disney keeps for themselves. For a few data points:

BWV: 2013: $599,977, 2014: $615,813, 2015: $618,979
BCV: 2013: $356,324, 2014: $364,652, 2015: $373,702

Using round numbers, if we assume $500 per night for a DVC room, I get almost 4 rooms per night rented for cash at BWV and about 2 rooms per night rented for cash at BCV.

[DizneyFreak2002]

It seems like DVC is always higher than 83% because if I try to make a change to the reservation I can't find the rooms I need.
I would like to see the rate by resort.

DVC is higher than 83% which is why WDW occupancy is 83%, DVC brings the occupancy rate up... Take away DVC, and WDW is not doing 83% occupancy... This is why you are seeing rooms in Wilderness Lodge, and Poly, being converted to DVC... DVC is very much in demand and not dying down any time soon... They have to keep up with the demand, thus more DVC supply on the way...

[Figment!]

Rumors have been swirling for quite some time that WL is next on the conversion block complete with buildings over the water. As an owner at VWL and a WL fan in general this makes me very sad.

Permits have been filed for new bungalows, restaurants, recreation buildings, and pools at the Wilderness Lodge as part of an assumed Disney Vacation Club expansion:

Walt Disney World resort Files Permits for Expansion to Disney's Wilderness Lodge