WDW Weather Forecast - September 17-Oct 3, 2016

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Sunday am, September 18, 2016
I'm leaving for Europe today for a couple of weeks to teach on a Journeys of the Apostle Paul tour. I will have internet so I'll be checking in as often as possible, but if I miss a day and you need an update the best place to check local Orlando weather is here and for the tropical go to the National Hurricane Center here.

The high today will be 90-92 with a 30% chance of a brief storm. Tomorrow will be 87-89 with a 60% chance of a thunderstorm, though it shouldn't be a long lasting rain if one move through. Tuesday through Sunday highs will run 88-90 with a 40% chance of a sea breeze thunderstorm each afternoon. Those storms will fire up. It's just impossible to say where they'll go each day. But if one moves over your area it won't last too long.

Long range...Sept 26-27 a front moves close and will bump up the number of scattered thunderstorms with highs around 90. Then on Sept 28 the front moves through bringing some showers. Sept 29-Oct 1 the front stalls out bringing a good chance of storms each day with highs in the mid 80s. Take that with a grain of salt since it's voodooland, but even if this was the case each day wouldn't be a washout. Just an increased chance of storms popping up. Oct 2-4 highs are in the mid to upper 80s with a slight chance of a brief afternoon storm.

Travel Issues
No major issues today or tomorrow, though the most likely place for a delay tomorrow will be around Chicago.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
TD Julia remains a depression this morning with 30 mph sustained winds and looks like it will slowly drift north thanks to a front over the next 2-3 days towards North Carolina. But it you look at the model output for Julia it looks like you let a child loose with colored pencils. There are scribbles all over the place. So, Julia is not going anywhere any time soon but it doesn't look like it'll pose any real issue for land either. Shear and dry air will keep it from developing again.

TS Karl is still moving across the Atlantic and looks likely to become a hurricane. The models are in very good agreement about Karl turning away from the US and Caribbean but Bermuda could take a hit. That situation needs to be watched carefully.

Invest 96L is off the coast of Africa and looks likely to develop but it should turn out into the Atlantic with no threat to land.

The models aren't showing too much of a slow down as the wave train keeps rolling, but for now no threat to the US coast and hopefully it stays that way!

[VWL Mom]

Thanks for keeping us in the know for 11 years!! I always know my trip is getting closer when I start to look for your updates.

[nat]

Thank you so much for all your updates! When we head to WDW I always turn to your thread for the latest and accurate updates!

[Mitzie]

Happy Anniversary Chris!! Over the years and many trips you have been our go to. You are so appreciated.

[Crow]

thanks for the updates. arriving the 17th and hoping for good things

[Hammer]

Since we had to move our trip from early November to arriving September 25th in Tampa and Orlando the 26th, I get to go right back to reading your forecasts!

[Strmchsr]

Hopefully it'll bring good weather for you!

[JanetMegan]

Darn it Christine, missing you by only a couple days! Thanks for the weather updates, sounds hot and steamy

[BiloxiMom]

We arrive late on the 27th and check out on the 1st. Do you think it's going to be super rainy on the 28-29th? Love the idea of nice weather on the 30th though!

[Isabella]

Love it when I get to check into VooDoo land! it seems to make the trip finally become real instead of "in the planning stage"! You are such a great guy to do this so accurately and consistently! Thanks! We'll be there 9/25-10/8 and cant wait!

[Strmchsr]

We arrive late on the 27th and check out on the 1st. Do you think it's going to be super rainy on the 28-29th? Love the idea of nice weather on the 30th though!

No. Don't be too concerned with voodooland right now. As I mentioned in today's forecast there's lots of model madness in the long run so we'll need to wait a few days to have a better idea. But today those days look fine. No big rain. But also no cooler temps.

Love it when I get to check into VooDoo land! it seems to make the trip finally become real instead of "in the planning stage"! You are such a great guy to do this so accurately and consistently! Thanks! We'll be there 9/25-10/8 and cant wait!

It's my pleasure! Have a great trip!

[Isabella]

It's my pleasure! Have a great trip![/QUOTE]

Thanks! Looking forward to it!!!

[Hammer]

While Chris is enjoying Europe, I will post the 7 day forecast from WESH.com.

Weather for Chris today in Palermo-high of 81 degrees (Fahrenheit), winds 17 mph from the NW

Orlando weather for the next 7 days

Tonight Considerable cloudiness late in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers late in the evening. Lows in the lower 70s. Northeast winds around 5 mph becoming north late. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday Night Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. East winds around 5 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Southeast winds around 5 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday Night Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.

Saturday Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday Night Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

[Hammer]

Chris is at Sea today on his way to Mykonos, Greece, where the weather is supposed to be a high of 73 degrees, but is breezy with winds at 18 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Orlando weather September 24th-September 30th

Saturday Mostly sunny through late morning...then a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 5 mph becoming north 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday Night Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through late evening. Lows in the lower 70s. East winds around 5 mph until around midnight becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Partly sunny. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night Partly cloudy. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday Partly sunny then considerable cloudiness. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night Partly cloudy. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night Partly cloudy. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Partly sunny then considerable cloudiness. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night Considerable cloudiness with a slight chance of showers. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

[Hammer]

Chris is scheduled to be in Ephesus, Turkey today, where the high is supposed to be 82 degrees with winds at 9 mph.

Chris posted some pictures on Facebook and commented that internet on the ship is horrible. I am heading to Tampa tomorrow and WDW the next day, but will try and post weather updates here every couple of days.

Orlando Weather for September 25- October 1


Sunday Mostly sunny through late morning...then a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday Night Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through late evening. Lows in the lower 70s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday Mostly sunny through late morning...then a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms through midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Southeast winds around 5 mph until around midnight becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday Partly sunny then considerable cloudiness. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Partly sunny then considerable cloudiness. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Considerable cloudiness with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday Night Considerable cloudiness with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Considerable cloudiness with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.