WDW Weather Forecast - April 30-May 16, 2013

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Tuesday am, April 30, 2013
Well a boundary developed right over Orlando last night and showers and thunderstorms this morning are moving right along it. It's not raining anywhere else in Florida, and the rain band is pretty narrow, but it's moving right over WDW and should rain the rest of the morning. That will keep the high near 75. It'll clear out by this afternoon. Unfortunately, this boundary is setting up shop and doesn't look to be going anywhere. That means I need to up the rain chances for tomorrow and Thursday. I think there's an excellent chance you'll see showers and thunderstorms both days. Neither day should be a washout, but keep a poncho handy. The rain chances actually look similar to today, with a better rain chance in the morning and clearing out in the afternoon. Highs will be around 80 both days. As for this weekend, the GFS and the ECMWF, the two primary global models, are not in good agreement. The GFS has the upper low Saturday near Fort Smith, AR, while the Euro has it west of Minneapolis, MN. The location of the ULL, of course, will determine WDW's weekend weather. For now we will ride with the GFS idea. What that means is rain chances will be around for Friday through Sunday. This front is VERY slow moving. Now, take this with a grain of salt because if the Euro is correct and low goes much further north than the weekend will be drier and warmer. The high for Friday and Saturday should be 75-77. Of the three days, Friday looks the wettest. Rain will be slightly more scattered on Saturday and pretty isolated on Sunday. I think the chance of showers will be east of WDW by Sunday, but a shower is still possible. Early next week model madness continues to rule. On Monday the GFS has the upper low near Chattanooga, while the Euro has it over Hudson Bay (Canada). Should the GFS be correct, showers could linger into early next week with temperatures remaining below average. I think showers should be pretty light and spotty if they do form, though. Highs will run 75-77. Again, if the Euro is correct no shower chances and highs in the low to mid 80s. We should begin to see tomorrow what track it will take.

Long range...May 8-14 looks pretty benign with dry conditions except for the slight possibility of an isolated afternoon shower and highs in the low 80s. May 15 shower chances are higher as a front moves through. May 16 is dry with a high in the upper 70s.

Travel Impact
No major delays today or tomorrow, but minor issues are possible around Chicago and St Louis today and over Texas tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[WDWFanatic]

I love it when my trip start showing up in your dates! Thank you Chris for always keeping us updated!

[Dopey's Girl]

I'm in voodoo land, I'm in voodoo land!!!

[merlinmagic4]

I haven't been able to keep up with Intercot for a long time, but I knew just where to come to get the weather forecast for out trip! I think I'll spen some time here today!!

[Strmchsr]

Welcome back Kelly!

[lawgirl]

Uh oh! Our park day is supposed to be April 30. Do you think it will be severe thunderstorms all day? Maybe I should change our schedule!

[Strmchsr]

Uh oh! Our park day is supposed to be April 30. Do you think it will be severe thunderstorms all day? Maybe I should change our schedule!

Definitely not. You know the rules with voodooland - don't trust it. Looking at the models this morning, the storms are now showing up on April 29 with the 30th being clear. I'll give a full update this afternoon, but keep in mind things will still fluctuate for the next couple of days until we break the 7 day barrier and get out of voodooland.

[lawgirl]

You are so right, of course! I'm just getting anxious. I'll definitely wait for your updates

[Red Randal]

Ugh. Was really hoping for a dry day Wednesday May 1.

Two questions...

1. Since we are flexible and can go any day May 1-4, should we wait and go on Friday the 3rd. Is there a chance Wednesday is a washout? Or is it more likely to just be the usual Florida afternoon thunderstorm?

2. What's the forecast for Clearwater/Tampa May 1-4? Same as Walt Disney World? We're hoping for a few beach days at our condo to work out too.

[Strmchsr]

1. Since we are flexible and can go any day May 1-4, should we wait and go on Friday the 3rd. Is there a chance Wednesday is a washout? Or is it more likely to just be the usual Florida afternoon thunderstorm?

Neither May 1 nor 2 looks like a total washout. But there is a good chance of afternoon thunderstorms/showers developing both days. May 3-4 look dry but they will be a good bit cooler. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if May 3 stayed in the upper 60s.

2. What's the forecast for Clearwater/Tampa May 1-4? Same as Walt Disney World? We're hoping for a few beach days at our condo to work out too.

It'll be the same thing -dry in the morning with showers in the afternoon, dry on May 3-4. The Storms are going in reverse on this week with the seabreeze, so they'll start earlier in the Tampa area and move east instead of the normal east to west movement.

[Red Randal]

Neither May 1 nor 2 looks like a total washout. But there is a good chance of afternoon thunderstorms/showers developing both days. May 3-4 look dry but they will be a good bit cooler. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if May 3 stayed in the upper 60s.

Yikes! I'm glad I thought to check in with your forecasts. I've been looking at Accuweather who has it 88 degrees with thunderstorms on Friday the 3rd, where you have it in the high 60's and dry.

I'll keep monitoring it throughout the weekend. Thanks so much!

[Strmchsr]

Yikes! I'm glad I thought to check in with your forecasts. I've been looking at Accuweather who has it 88 degrees with thunderstorms on Friday the 3rd, where you have it in the high 60's and dry.

Honestly, you can't even trust my forecast beyond 7 days. Voodooland constantly changes. Next Friday is right on the verge of that, but I feel decently confident in the drier, cooler forecast. All of those "fill-in-your-zip-code" sites are a waste of time because it's just a computer plugging in numbers from 1 model and no human interaction. I'll keep you updated!

[Red Randal]

Last post since we're leaving in a few hours.

Gun to your head, which day Wednesday, Thursday, Friday would you plan for Disney World?

And are the models for Clearwater the same as Orlando still?

[Strmchsr]

If i had to pick, it would still be Friday at WDW. All 3 days look like they'll be wet at some point, but Friday's rain looks like it'll come later and give you the most dry hours, plus if the front lifts further north then it could be dry most of the day. Clearwater looks pretty much the same. Not a good 3 days to be at the beach.