WDW Weather Forecast - February 29-March 16, 2012

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss Sundays), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Wednesday pm, February 29, 2012
It's going to feel almost like we skipped spring and went to summer these next few days. Today through Saturday highs will run 84-86, and lows around 65, with a slight chance of a pop up shower in the afternoon. A front will move in on Sunday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Right now it looks like mostly a morning event, but we'll need to give it a couple of more days to get the timing down. The high, with the rain, should be 71-73. Monday will bounce back to 74-76, then Tuesday and Wednesday will be back to around 80 with a slight chance of sea breeze showers. Most of those stay along the coast, but it's always possible one will drift inland.

Long range...March 8 looks dry and in the low 80s. March 9-10 present an interesting scenario. The models all show a front moving southward on those days, but several of the more reliable ones show the front hitting the high and stalling over north Florida. This would mean a lot of rain and thunderstorms for places like Jacksonville and Tallahassee, maybe even Gainesville, but Orlando would stay dry. This is still voodooland so we'll just need to keep an eye on it for the time being. March 11-16 doesn't show any significant rain for WDW with highs staying mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Travel Impact
At noon we have low visibility creating delays in Philadelphia and NYC. The severe weather over KY and TN is the main issue right now and will be the rest of the day. For tomorrow, TN, AR, MO, and MS will be the places to watch for delays.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[mickeyman42]

oh my, our dates are now in voodooland! yippy, time to obsess over the weather again, although anything other than snow, snow and wind will be great!

[Strmchsr]

I can almost guarantee the snow won't happen and it'll be warmer than home.

[missouridisney]

Thanks Strmchsr for your "right on" weather forcasting, we were there Feb2-7 and I checked
your forcast daily a week or so before we arrived and as you predicted we had awesome weather, couldn't have been better. You are better than any other forcaster I have seen.

[Strmchsr]

My pleasure. Thanks for your kind words. I'm glad you had a great trip!

[mickeyman42]

Hi chris, this is a bit of a tangent but was wondering your opinion on an apparent east coast storm brewing sun/mon and a potential impact on NL (st john's) for mon/tues? Probably to early to know for sure but neverto early for me to worry. Travelling on the 21st and potential weather issues as usual!

[Strmchsr]

Hi chris, this is a bit of a tangent but was wondering your opinion on an apparent east coast storm brewing sun/mon and a potential impact on NL (st john's) for mon/tues? Probably to early to know for sure but neverto early for me to worry. Travelling on the 21st and potential weather issues as usual!

Right now I think the worst of the storm for Sunday/Monday will be Baltimore and south. Most models keep the track of the low in such a way that it shouldn't bother you in a major way. The second system on Wednesday the 22nd looks like more of an issue. As you said, impossible to say for sure as this will all depend on the exact track of the low, but right now it looks okay for you.

[Suz36]

I know it's still a bit too early to tell, but how bad do you think it's going to be in Baltimore?

[Strmchsr]

I know it's still a bit too early to tell, but how bad do you think it's going to be in Baltimore?

At the moment, it looks like the track of the storm will keep the worst south of Baltimore. I think Baltimore will get some snow and wind, but nothing too bad.

[mickeyman42]

Well we're flying tuesday suppertime so lets hope it keeps veering out to the south! Thanks chris

[Julie_Mouse]

Oh no! What kind of delays do you anticipate in GA? My flight tomorrow morning connects in Atlanta... just wondering what I should be prepared for. Any thoughts appreciated!

[Strmchsr]

Oh no! What kind of delays do you anticipate in GA? My flight tomorrow morning connects in Atlanta... just wondering what I should be prepared for. Any thoughts appreciated!

The greatest delay risk will be in the morning with thunderstorms. It doesn't look too bad, though. No cancellations or anything like that. Right now it looks like the heaviest stuff will be through early in the morning with just lighter stuff than won't cause any problems coming later in the morning and afternoon. Since you'll have to fly over a front, be prepared for some turbulence.

[Julie_Mouse]

Thanks for the info!

[DisneyBarb]

I have seen March 2nd - 6th back and forth with temps and chance of showers/rain (saw this on another site). If there is rain do you expect it to last or be heavy? I know its still 7+ days away but you seem to always be on target!

[Strmchsr]

I have seen March 2nd - 6th back and forth with temps and chance of showers/rain (saw this on another site). If there is rain do you expect it to last or be heavy? I know its still 7+ days away but you seem to always be on target!

Thanks! None of the systems for the next few days look like big rain events. The only big rain event looming is March 8 and even that is way out in voodooland. So, I don't think you have too much to worry about with those dates right now. We'll have to watch the March 4 storm to see if it has enough moisture to bring any rain, but even so it looks like it should move out pretty quickly.

[DisneyBarb]

Thanks!! I will be watching your forecast closely for the next week! I hope your mom has a speedy recovery!

[PopPhan]

Prayers & For your mom, Chris! Hope everything works out OK!!!