Quantcast WDW Weather Forecast - November 30-Dec 16, 2012
 
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  1. #1
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    Default WDW Weather Forecast - November 30-Dec 16, 2012

    I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

    Weather at WDW - Update Friday pm, November 30, 2012
    The high today is topping out at 76. Very pleasant. No sign of any major rain through Friday. Very isolated light showers could pop up in the afternoon, but they would be extremely brief. There's a slight chance of light showers Thursday night into Friday morning, but, again, nothing to be concerned about. The high tomorrow will be 76-78, then 77-79 for Sunday through Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday looks to be around 75 for highs.

    Long range...Still no sign of any long lasting cold weather around here; the big omega block over the Bering Sea is keeping the pattern from becoming too amplified over the continental U.S. at least through mid-December. I do note the CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System) shows a large snow cover over much of the U.S. the week of Christmas, but that is about as voodoo as you can get. Dec 8 should be clear and in the upper 70s. Dec 9 a front moves through that could bring showers in the morning and a high in the mid 70s. Dec 10-13 looks clear with highs near 80. The next chance of rain arrives Dec 14. Dec 15-16 looks clear with highs in the mid 70s.

    Tropics Note - The 2012 Hurricane Season ends today. This season was one that produced 19 named storms, of which 10 became hurricanes and one became a major hurricane. An interesting aspect of the season was its early start, with two tropical storms, Alberto and Beryl, developing in May before the season officially began. Also, this is the seventh consecutive year that no major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) have hit the United States. The only major hurricane this season was Hurricane Michael, a Category 3 storm that stayed over the open Atlantic. Several storms this year were short in duration, weak in intensity, and went largely unnoticed by the general public because they stayed out over the Atlantic. A persistent jet stream pattern over the eastern portion of the nation helped steer many of this season’s storms away from the United States. The number of named storms and hurricanes was higher than predicted in NOAA’s pre-season outlook, in large part because El Niño – which likely would have suppressed overall storm activity – never materialized as predicted by many climate models.

    Travel Impact
    Nothing big today or tomorrow.

    Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!
    Chris, aka Strmchsr
    INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru

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  3. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
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    Pittsburgh, Pa
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    Cool

    Many thanks Chris!
    DW,DD#2 and I will be returning to WDW this Sunday and once again your forecasts are a helpful part of our planning.
    Eric
    Resorts:
    POLYNESIAN (Favorite), Grand Floridian, Caribbean Beach, Coronado Springs. Beach Club, Saratoga Springs, AoA, All Star Sports and POP Century

  4. #3
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    Have a great trip Eric!
    Chris, aka Strmchsr
    INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru

  5. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
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    NJ
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    Love your forecasts! I hope that voodoo doesn't come true in a couple of weeks, we'll be in the World 12-9 through 12-20!

  6. #5
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    Thank you for the updates! I arrive on the 16th so I am now checking this thread obsessively hoping for perfect weather

    Can't wait to finally tell the kids
    Heidi (DS16, DD14 and the reluctant DH)
    June 02 off site
    Jan 07 VWL
    Sep 07 off site
    Jan 08 POFQ
    Oct 08 CSR
    Nov 09 Poly
    Nov 10 Off site
    Nov 11 Beach Club
    Nov 12 SSR
    Feb 14 OKW
    Feb 16 SSR
    Dec 17 Yacht Club
    Feb 19 SSR
    Feb 20 AKL

  7. #6
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    I'm writing from the Jersey Shore! We still have no power, phone, tv and limited cell service. Things are a real mess down here. But i consider my family real lucky. People have lost everything. It was a bad one. We are nervous about this possible Nor Easter coming in on Wednesday. I will be checking your posts when i can for any updates. Thanks so much!

  8. #7
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    Thank you for the updates! I have been checking every day so that I know what to pack for our trip 11/16-11/23. Do you think we can get away with no ponchos?
    Heidi (DS16, DD14 and the reluctant DH)
    June 02 off site
    Jan 07 VWL
    Sep 07 off site
    Jan 08 POFQ
    Oct 08 CSR
    Nov 09 Poly
    Nov 10 Off site
    Nov 11 Beach Club
    Nov 12 SSR
    Feb 14 OKW
    Feb 16 SSR
    Dec 17 Yacht Club
    Feb 19 SSR
    Feb 20 AKL

  9. #8
    Join Date
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    Cole!
    Sean
    DL - '72, '74
    WDW - '84, '85, '86, Honeymoon '90, '93, '96, '00, '01, '03, '04, 2x '05, '06, 2x '10, 2x '11, 10x'12, 2x '13
    Booked for February 22-27

  10. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by ginger19 View Post
    so that I know what to pack for our trip 11/16-11/23. Do you think we can get away with no ponchos?
    Right now it looks that way. Any rain potential would be light and brief. Certainly not worth taking up room in the suitcase for ponchos. Keep checking over the next couple of days to make sure the pattern stays the same.

    Quote Originally Posted by Disney Hungarian View Post
    Cole!
    Thanks Sean!
    Chris, aka Strmchsr
    INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru

  11. #10
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    I know it's voodoo land but Nor'easter???
    I will be watching this more carefully as if this storm is on its way we might be stuck in Disney!!
    If you can dream it, you can do it ...Horizons
    **Been there, done that at Disney!!!**
    Next Trip:
    Post Mother's Day trip May 2016

  12. #11
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    Thank you! I'll keep checking every day
    Ponchos take up so much room so I am hoping not to take them.
    As for the Nor'easter, we really can't afford another with all of the destruction from Sandy so let's just make that one go away
    Heidi (DS16, DD14 and the reluctant DH)
    June 02 off site
    Jan 07 VWL
    Sep 07 off site
    Jan 08 POFQ
    Oct 08 CSR
    Nov 09 Poly
    Nov 10 Off site
    Nov 11 Beach Club
    Nov 12 SSR
    Feb 14 OKW
    Feb 16 SSR
    Dec 17 Yacht Club
    Feb 19 SSR
    Feb 20 AKL

  13. #12
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    Thank you for the forecast Chris! It looks like we'll have nice weather for the couple of days that we visit.

  14. #13
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    Ok, do your magic and keep getting warmer as we are there 11/28-12/7... OK?
    Trish

    Next Trip Jan 2015 1 night POR, then BWV renting points
    Sept 2013 BWV renting points
    Nov 2012 BWV renting points for my big 4-0
    Sept 2011 BWV renting points
    Sept 2009 POP
    Sept 2008 POP
    Sept. 2007 POP
    Sept 2003 ASMu

  15. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam&Alex&Josh'sMOM View Post
    Ok, do your magic and keep getting warmer as we are there 11/28-12/7... OK?
    lol, no promises. This is one of the years where the pattern is in place for cooler than normal temps through the winter so I would expect at least some cooler temps while you're there.
    Chris, aka Strmchsr
    INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru

  16. #15
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    Thanks as always Chris!

    Will be down from 12/8-12/12 and anxiously watching your forecasts the closer it gets.

    3 years ago it was mid to high 80's on the same week. 2 years ago it was frigid and in the 40's and last year was low 80's so that week is always a **** shoot for me!!

    Thanks as always for the help!
    Jay

  17. #16
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    Eek!!! I'm getting anxious!!! 20 days and counting! Can't wait to see what your forecast shows Chris!!!
    ~*~Tonya~*~

    1st = 1992
    ASMo = Jan. 6-12 '07
    POP = Jan 5-11 '08
    BWV = Jan 6-16 '09
    BCV = Jan 12-22 '10
    BWV = Jan. 21-29 '11
    BWV = Jan. 21-28 '12
    BWV = Dec. 8-15 '12
    BCV/BWV=Jan. 24-Feb. 1 '14
    BWV = Jan. 16-24 '15
    BWV = Jan. 29-Feb. 6 '16
    BWV = Jan. 20-28 '17
    BWV = Jan. 26-Feb. 3 '18

  18. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by TinkerbellT421 View Post
    Eek!!! I'm getting anxious!!! 20 days and counting! Can't wait to see what your forecast shows Chris!!!
    Well, you have about 4 days until you're in "voodooland" and then we'll see what it holds.
    Chris, aka Strmchsr
    INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru

  19. #18
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    I'll be approaching Voodoo Land in a few days as well. I hope I don't need my raincoat! accuweather.com says I will, rain from 12-10 to 12-12. I realize that this is probably just based on the GFS model, and will PROBABLY change. Fingers crossed!

  20. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Camaro305 View Post
    accuweather.com says I will, rain from 12-10 to 12-12. I realize that this is probably just based on the GFS model, and will PROBABLY change. Fingers crossed!
    Yeah, just keep in mind that "accuweather" usually isn't beyond 2-3 days and nothing or no one (me included) is really accurate beyond 7 days so I wouldn't worry about that raincoat just yet.
    Chris, aka Strmchsr
    INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru

  21. #20
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    We're headed down on Black Friday for our son's wedding, so I'm watching your forecast daily. Lo and behold! A first (for me at least) a mention of Portland in the forecast. Nice to get a mention, even if it is in regard to travel delays. Rain doesn't usually slow things down up here, but there is only one thing to say to describe the past few days around here - THE DELUGE.

    Thanks, Chris
    First visit: Disneyland, July 17, 1955 (well, somebody had to be there on opening day!)

    Most Recent Visit:
    Disneyland - June 21-25, 2017
    WDW - Sep 22 - Oct 5, 2019
    Next up: WDW - May 9 - 16, 2020 at Riviera!
    Dec 5 - 16, 2020 at Poly

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