WDW Weather Forecast - June 30-July 16, 2011

[Strmchsr]

Since the forecast rarely changes June-August, I'm only going to update this post on the weekdays until September unless there is something tropical brewing or a reason to update. I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Thursday pm, June 30, 2011
Thunderstorms are moving in again this afternoon so I think the high will stop just short of 90. It looks like the thunderstorms will hang around one more day as the ridge is taking its time rebuilding. So, expect tomorrow to have a high 87-89 with a good chance of some thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday through Tuesday highs will be 91-93 with the afternoon thunderstorms being more scattered in nature. Wednesday and Thursday should be 93-95.

Long range...July 8-16 looks pretty typical for mid-summer. Highs will remain in the mid 90s with pop up thunderstorms each afternoon. No sign of any tropical trouble for Florida right now as the high pressure deflects any potential storms towards Mexico.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
At 1:00 pm CDT, only Tampa is reporting delays due to thunderstorms. For tomorrow, the delay focus will be over MN, WI, and northern IL. FL could see some minor delays as well.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics :fan:
Tropical Storm Arlene made landfall around 4 AM today near Cabo Rojo, Mexico; winds were estimated around 65 MPH as the storm came ashore. Thanks to the strong ridge over the south-central United States and northern Mexico, Arlene’s remnants will hang around Mexico for several days. There is no real threat of a tropical storm or hurricane for the US coastline at least for the next 5 to 7 days.

Click here (http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/faq/hurricane-policy/) to see WDW's 2011 Hurricane Policy.

[jans2kids]

Hi Chris; i have been following your weather reports as our trip quickly approaches, we will be in WDW from 6/15-6/26 and although you say you don't see much change in the long range forecast, another online websites 14 days forecst shows rain for 5 straight days from 6/17 to 6/21. Now normally almost every day shows a cloud with a lightening bolt, but these 5 days show RAIN. Do they see something out there that they are guessing may form. We have been to WDW at least 10 times and only on one trip did we encounter rain for 4 stragiht days and that was a few years ago when a tropical storm stalled over central Florida. If it happens then it happens, we just want to go prepared.

Thank You

[Strmchsr]

Keep in mind 2 things: 1.) Anything beyond 7 days is total voodoo and totally unreliable. We can see trends farther than 7 days, but no specific forecast. 2.) All "fill-in-your-zip-code" sites use 1 model with no human interaction. The software just fills in model data. So, if one model goes a little squirrly (as they often do in the long range) you'll see that kind of anomaly. It'll probably be gone tomorrow.

This time of the year a tropical system is the only thing that could cause something like that. You'll see afternoon thunderstorms most every day, but they last 30-45 min, tops. Nothing like an all day rain. Currently, several models do show tropical systems developing in that time frame, but almost all of them bring them towards Mexico or Texas, and not towards Florida. So, though I can't say for sure out in voodooland, my best guess right now is that you'll be okay. No major rain issues beyond the afternoon thunderstorms. Hope that helps you relax a little! :mickey:

UPDATE
I checked the afternoon models that have run since I did the full forecast this morning and I found your culprit. The GFS model shows a hurricane coming into the Gulf around June 20, sideswiping Florida on June 20-21 (with some feeder bands coming in before) and then heading into Alabama. The GFS is notorious for generating tropical systems in the long range and they rarely actually come to fruition. All it tells me is that conditions in the tropics are ripe for development, but until something actually forms it's useless to worry about. The GFS had the same storm going into south Texas this morning. Voodooland constantly changes. I'll keep you posted on those updates and when I do the forecast I use all available models to try to get the best picture.

[Scar]

Happy Anniversary Chris and Renae!

Why am I reading your updates? I don't have a trip scheduled. :crazy:

[Strmchsr]

Happy Anniversary Chris and Renae!

Why am I reading your updates? I don't have a trip scheduled. :crazy:

Thanks, Jeff! Maybe just reading about the weather at WDW makes you somehow feel more connected? :mickey:

[Scar]

... or maybe I'm dreaming of the cooler temps in FL compared to NJ.

[Strmchsr]

... or maybe I'm dreaming of the cooler temps in FL compared to NJ.

Tell me about it. Doesn't quite seem fair. However, help is on the way for you this afternoon. In fact, you better hang on to your hat because it might get a little rough around your neck of the woods in a little while.

[Dsnygirl]

:hi: Chris! My showing up here must mean a trip is in the offing... :blush:

So, just a quick question about Florida in August, and some things I've read recently.

I know that our trip will be hot. (mid August to the end of August) Someone even described it as "Africa hot". :whew:

What I am wondering is -- is it supposed to be even hotter than normal this year for some reason? My brother, trying to be infinitely helpful, gave me a Farmer's Almanac, as well as an Almanac, both of which described the end of the summer of 2011 as being "hotter than normal, with hotter than average temps throughout most of the country, particularly the south and southeast". :confused: Both of these magazines, if I should call them that, predicted the tornadoes across the southeast and the odd ones we had in the northeast, as well as the rains we've been currently experiencing... so I'm a bit nervous about their long-term "generalities" actually being accurate on this front, too.

I know you don't subscribe to the "computer modeling" and totally understand why, when you compare it to an individual interpreting the various weather patterns going on. But when it comes to long-term stuff like this -- how and why are they so accurate (at times) and do you tend to believe they are right??

Just curious... of course, I am hoping they're wrong... like I said, we're prepared for heat... but hoping for no "extraordinary, insane temps" that would make it just crazier hot than normal.

Thanks for any input... as usual... :D

[Strmchsr]

Blythe, the Farmer's Almanac gets more credit for being correct than is backed up by facts, but you can sometimes see the long range patterns due to things like La Nina or El Nino and other large scale weather patterns.

As for your particular question, it's impossible to say right now whether this summer will be much hotter than normal. There is one reason that could make it so - lack of rain. Florida has been in a drought the last 2-3 years. A lot of this has to do with the fact that Florida has not been hit by any tropical systems during that time. That's a big source of rain for them. Normally the Florida soil is VERY moist. The sun has to spend a lot of it's energy evaporating the moisture and thus the heat is kept in check. However, right now the soil is pretty dry which means the sun's energy is almost exclusively focused on heating things up. If Florida has a dry summer and the drought continues, you could very well see temps 100+ in August. Should there be a good amount of moisture from a tropical system and/or afternoon thunderstorms then the heat will be no worse than normal. So, keep an eye on the rain for July and we should have a good idea of how hot it'll be in August.