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dinahvixen
07-25-2009, 10:38 AM
I was watching the news the other day when the author of a book titled 20 Dollars a Gallon was on and was discussing how life would be different at different gas prices. He predicted the closure of Disney when the gas prices got to 8 bucks a gallon somewhere down the line.

Considering that it is certainly likely since oil is a non-renewable resource, I was wondering if anyone else considers their time at Disney temporary. I certainly consider it long term, but deep down, I kind of consider everything temporary - it's been around for a very long time, but I guess I don't necessarily expect that WDW will be around in my old age.

LauraByTheSea
07-25-2009, 10:49 AM
Wow, that's hard to comprehend - Disney not being there. It happens though... I'm always sad when I go back to where I grew up and see something like a restaurant or store I grew up on closed and I wonder why in the world they couldn't stay open... But I guess it really could happen to Disney too. Let's hope it doesn't ever get to that!

SBETigg
07-25-2009, 11:01 AM
Of course it could happen, but this guy is also making outrageous and overblown claims to sell a book. If it comes to not being able to get around, I'm sure we'll all have more to worry about than just losing a favorite vacation spot. But I have faith in technology and society to adapt around a non-renewable resource before we're that depleted of it. I also don't think that $8 a gallon would cripple us entirely or stop WDW from thriving, but it depends on the global economy and not just what prices are at in the U.S.

I don't think I'll lose WDW in my lifetime, but maybe that's because it has always been a part of my life and I just expect it to keep doing well. People always need to get away and Disney has always managed to be a top vacation destination. I'm not worried yet.

Mousemates
07-25-2009, 11:05 AM
Considering that it is certainly likely since oil is a non-renewable resource, I was wondering if anyone else considers their time at Disney temporary.

No offense, but what you consider to be "certainly likely" I consider to be be highly unlikely (except for some short term/temporary spike due to some geopolitical disruption in middle east). There is still plenty of petroleum out there for the forseeable future...even domestically off the CA coast and in the gulf...and thus my guess is that my time on planet earth is far more temporary than WDW's life. Don't worry, be happy. :mickey:

Emme&TeddysMommy
07-25-2009, 11:16 AM
I don't think I'll lose WDW in my lifetime, but maybe that's because it has always been a part of my life and I just expect it to keep doing well. People always need to get away and Disney has always managed to be a top vacation destination. I'm not worried yet.

:ditto: Life without Disney I can't even imagine!

johnO
07-25-2009, 11:25 AM
You'll wish gas was only $8 a gallon when hyperinflation hits the US...

candleshoe
07-25-2009, 11:30 AM
My concern has always more been terrorism being the doom of disney. Maybe a little off topic, but it would be the ultimate spot to hit - the perfect symbol of America- the financial and psychological blow would be enormous.

But can't dwell on this- back to my happy thoughts....

KAJUNKING
07-25-2009, 11:31 AM
there is enough oil in Alaska, in the gulf, in the ocean off the east and west coast, for this country to keep going for a long long time, just because political decisions keep it from being tapped doesn't mean it does not exist

candleshoe
07-25-2009, 11:37 AM
Sensing a political battle looming on these posts...just saying before things get too heated up...

KAJUNKING
07-25-2009, 11:48 AM
Sensing a political battle looming on these posts...just saying before things get too heated up...

not going into any political nor enviromental discussions just saying that before gas hits prices that would cripple this country so much that people would have to stop going on vacation our country has the resources to keep this from happening, i personnaly dont think this is going to happen, like a pp has stated if gas goes up to $20 a gallon most of us would not be able to afford food much less vacation, it would cost so much to transport everything food costs would rise 10 fold

sonkist32
07-25-2009, 01:15 PM
don't be so shortsigted..it's the law of supply and demand. We saw a great example of it just this year. Crude would never hold at that level because there would be no demand for it, society will have moved on to electic/nat gas cars and buses by then. The technology esixts it's just not financally smart with gas at 2 bucks a gallon and poor nations willing to sell it to us cheaper than for us to drill our own..which we good.
What we really need is more refineries..lots of oil in the world just not enough places to turn it into gas..

Goofy4TheWorld
07-25-2009, 01:31 PM
What we really need is more refineries..lots of oil in the world just not enough places to turn it into gas..

I believe that this is so true. $4-$5 gas will be back, right behind the next real hurricane threat, and so much of that spike is because we are operating our refineries at 90+ percent of capacity and have built them all along the coast. We need to build new refineries toward the center of the country. No hurricanes, no earthquakes, moderate temperatures, and little risk of catastrophic damage from the area's only real weather threat, tornadoes. It may be more difficult to pump crude oil inland than it is to pump refined fuels, but if Alaska can do, so can Texas.

Of course, we all know what we would do when the building permit was applied for in our back yard :nope::stop::fit::down:

I also agree that supply and demand will finally force us find a new widget to conquer our addiction to oil, but with gas being given away at around $2, the motivation (profit) isn't there. It is just like many other technological advances America has made, the greatest motivation usually comes from our darkest days (Wars, Polio, Soviets, $20 gas, etc...)

Mickey91
07-25-2009, 02:52 PM
You'll wish gas was only $8 a gallon when hyperinflation hits the US...
Actually, I will have stopped driving by the time it hits $5. The last hike to over $4 put us so far behind on our bills that we are still trying to recover. It's hard to pay your mortgage and other financial commitments when you have to put that money into your tank to get to work. And, before you say it, public transit isn't available in rural VA and carpooling isn't always an option. Not to mention that utilities and food have sky rocketed also. We will see another severe economic downturn if gas goes much over $2.50. Most of us just cannot afford it. Gas controls every aspect of our lives, not just driving. So, I really feel that Disney is there for the long haul. As long as it starts doing things smart. They could lower their one day ticket prices and get more people there on a regular basis. People that would spend money on merchandise and food. Plus they need to seem more sympathetic to the current financial situation. The currents "deals" just aren't like the deals of the past. The only thing that I feel will be the doom of Disney, is the greed of the board and stock holders. They shouldn't be upset about not turning profit but excited to stay afloat during these bad econmic times. The more they cut from the magical stay, the more guests will find value in vacations someplace else.
We just spent a week at Myrtle Beach and I have to say, their housekeeping, maintenance and overall staff were much friendlier and efficient than in the past and nicer and more efficient than some of the CMs and mousekeeping at Disney's CR last year. I have never had a beach trip that exceeded my past Disney trips before. I think it says something about what other tourists spots are willing to do to get more tourists and what Disney is willing to overlook and get rid of in order to turn a profit. That will be Disney's doom if anything.

gueli
07-25-2009, 02:52 PM
Supply and demand.
What happens when the supply prices overwhelm the market...(ie $5 or $6 per gallon), the econmy could not sustain it.
What is being done ?
"Greening" of our transportation system and power systems.
New tech, some old tech, and some innovation.

Will Disney be doomed ? I doubt it.
They too are a large corp, with global markets. They will expand and adapt to meet the requirements of the populace.

I hate these doom and gloom books. You ever watch National geographic channel ? Have you ever seen the shows on what would happen if... They are all there to attract viewers. This guy and this book is just like them. A prophet of doom.:mad:

In the end, the moral of our story is:
1) Be aware
2) Adapatation
3) Survival
4) Ignore these doom prophits
5) Love and compassion :thumbsup:

and here (intercot) it is
LETS HAVE SOME FUN...I AM GOING TO DISNEY !!! :D

Mickey91
07-25-2009, 02:54 PM
My concern has always more been terrorism being the doom of disney. Maybe a little off topic, but it would be the ultimate spot to hit - the perfect symbol of America- the financial and psychological blow would be enormous.



I agree.

dinahvixen
07-25-2009, 05:34 PM
Well, this went way off track from what I intended - I was mostly thinking about the far away future where there may not be a WDW - gas prices, war, takeover, whatever the reason - the news bit was just the impetus that started me thinking.

TheVBs
07-25-2009, 05:48 PM
Well, this went way off track from what I intended - I was mostly thinking about the far away future where there may not be a WDW - gas prices, war, takeover, whatever the reason - the news bit was just the impetus that started me thinking.

I have to admit I'm an optimist. As far as the gas issue goes, I really feel that we'll find a better way. As for the other things you mentioned - too many variables to be able to speculate on!

I really don't see WDW going away in my lifetime. I can easily see it being there for our children's and grandchildren's lifetime (our kids are still little).

As for new transportation ideas, WDW is welcome to extend the monorail system to my town and I'll visit lots! :cool:

BMan62
07-25-2009, 06:36 PM
Well, this went way off track from what I intended - I was mostly thinking about the far away future where there may not be a WDW - gas prices, war, takeover, whatever the reason - the news bit was just the impetus that started me thinking.

There would have to be a catastrophic collapse of the Disney company for WDW to close. Or something catastrophic planetwide, and in that case, who would be too worried about a vacation spot?

There has already been numerous recessions worldwide, terrorist attacks in the US, catastrophic weather events, and WDW (and Disney in general) is still there and going strong. Don't fret.

LibertyTreeGal
07-25-2009, 09:14 PM
If his outrageous claims were true, the demise of WDW would be my last concern....

Marceline
07-26-2009, 12:09 AM
This thread is depressing the heck outta me.:(

To bad we can't just heed the call of R. Buckminster Fuller....the man who coined the phrase Spaceship Earth, and invented among other things the Geodesic Dome. He foresaw a future where it would be necessary to remove ourselves from dependence on non-renewable resources....and instead harness the gifts that abundantly flow on this planet, renewable clean resources.

It's doable, it really is.....but perceptions must shift away from scarcity and hoarding. There is plenty on this gorgeous glorious globe to support everyone at a wonderful standard of living, if we just focus on it. Bucky said we need to stop creating weaponry and instead make "livingry"....sustainable homes, efficient vehicles ect.

It's so sad to me that we have given in to a time of dread, doom and fear. What happened to the thought that the future was full of endless possibilities? That the road ahead shone with brighter days? That IF WE CAN DREAM IT WE CAN DO IT???? We need to shift our thoughts, our focus, our entire consciousness away from a certainty in doom. Boo to doom! I refuse to believe in it.

"We are called to be architects of the future, not its victims."
-R. Buckminster Fuller

Ian
07-26-2009, 10:41 AM
It better not be gone within in the 45-50 years. I need to maximize the benefits of my DVC memberships!

:mickey:

Marilyn Michetti
07-26-2009, 01:07 PM
Disney was green before anyone had ever heard the word. Anyway, if the unimaginable happens, it will most likely be more of a problem than a vacation spot staying operational.

This thread, (for now), is getting a bit like Chicken Little - "the sky is falling".

ransam
07-26-2009, 01:19 PM
My concern has always more been terrorism being the doom of disney. Maybe a little off topic, but it would be the ultimate spot to hit - the perfect symbol of America- the financial and psychological blow would be enormous.


off topic, but i always felt the same thing about Las Vegas...

Jll3Sonex
07-26-2009, 09:01 PM
It's so sad to me that we have given in to a time of dread, doom and fear. What happened to the thought that the future was full of endless possibilities? That the road ahead shone with brighter days? That IF WE CAN DREAM IT WE CAN DO IT???? We need to shift our thoughts, our focus, our entire consciousness away from a certainty in doom. Boo to doom! I refuse to believe in it. What happened?

To use the words of a Crosby, Stills and Nash song, "Southern Cross" -
So we cheated and we lied
And we tested
And we never failed to fail
It was the easiest thing to do. We have energy woes? We're told we shouldn't use much, because of CO2 and global warming. Far better we sit in the dark cursing the shortages than use our brains to come up with solutions and really effective ways to use what we've got. Failure is simple - it involves no risk, no chance you'll make mistakes.

We NEED dense, easily portable sources of energy. (That was one of the reasons, by the way, coal supplanted wood as locomotive fuel. There's much more energy in a ton of coal than a ton of even seasoned oak.) If we transition to electric vehicles, we're going to need even MORE stationary electrical production. And solar and wind just won't have the energy density needed to run a technological civilization - and we're pretty much tapped out on hydro. That doesn't leave much!

China's going into mass production of nuclear plants, France gets 85%+ of their electricity from them - here in the US it's darn near forbidden to even mention the subject. (Though that is changing - achingly slowly, but changing.)

We have massive, massive amounts of oil both in the continental US boundaries, up in Alaska, and off both coasts, but mention drilling and certain sectors of our political classes start hyperventilating. Better to go dark than drill? Heck with that! :mad:

The earth's climate is always changing - and has been variable from tropical poles to frozen equators. Personally, I think we should curb hydrocarbon use (coal, oil, natural gas) because the stuff's so darn useful for chemical work it's a shame to burn it.

But we need to be thinking of the whole 'Quest for Energy' as a game, or a ride like Spaceship Earth. We learned to communicate one step at a time, each step giving us the tools to bootstrap us up to the next level.

It's been that way with energy. With energy - we used wood to boot up the industrial revolution, which got us coal, which got us to nuclear. Now we need to exploit the :thedolls: out of nuclear and use THAT to get to the next level - fusion. That'll give us time to figure out what the next step of the game is after fusion.

We're smart critters, we is! We can do it!!! :number1:

Lakin
07-26-2009, 10:10 PM
Yes, this guy making outrageous claims about Disney closing soon is totally going to happen - and the world will come to an end in 2012. :shake:

Not saying that these things can't happen and that they're wrong, but just saying they're improbable and people make outrageous claims all the time.

dinahvixen
07-26-2009, 11:09 PM
I love the "boo to doom" post!

PlutoPlanet
07-27-2009, 12:00 PM
don't be so shortsigted..it's the law of supply and demand.

For What It is Worth, I agree with you.

dnickels
07-27-2009, 12:27 PM
It's hard to envision the disappearance of Disney, but there's no shortage of abandoned theme parks out there. I'm sure at one time their fans and operators could have never envisioned their demise either.

As for the peak oil discussion, it's real, the US hit peak oil back in the 1970s and it will happen on a world-wide basis at some point in the (I believe not too distant) future. Sure there's tons of oil out there still, the oil shales in the Dakotas, tar sands in Canada, BUT (and this is the part most people don't get), the Energy Return on Investment (EROI) for those sources is much lower than what we're used to. In the 1930s we could extract about 100 barrels of oil for every 1 barrel of oil-energy-equivalent used in the extraction process. By 2001 it was 18:1. For oil sands and oil shales the numbers are less than 7:1.

I think we'll come up with something eventually, I don't think Disney will ever disappear, but I don't necessarily think I'd plan my life around a 50 mile daily round-trip commute in my car and being able to fly the whole family to Disney World twice a year for $150 per person.

Imagineer1981
07-27-2009, 01:09 PM
No offense, but what you consider to be "certainly likely" I consider to be be highly unlikely (except for some short term/temporary spike due to some geopolitical disruption in middle east). There is still plenty of petroleum out there for the forseeable future...even domestically off the CA coast and in the gulf...and thus my guess is that my time on planet earth is far more temporary than WDW's life. Don't worry, be happy. :mickey:

Agreed. There is PLENTY of oil for us to use and is untapped in this world, and as technology continues to grow, we use it better and better, thus higher efficiency cars. The author was making a shocking statement to sell his book, nothing more. You could say 8 dollar gas will close airports and stop school bus service, or 100 other things just as ridiculous

Disney Doll
07-27-2009, 01:28 PM
If his outrageous claims were true, the demise of WDW would be my last concern....

Agreed!

As for the $8 gas I wouldn't be shocked to see it. It's time to be more serious about alternative fuels. We always want the cheapest easiest route, but there's something to be said for doing the responsible thing even if it's not cheap and easy.

ILoveLegos
07-27-2009, 01:48 PM
Well, this went way off track from what I intended - I was mostly thinking about the far away future where there may not be a WDW - gas prices, war, takeover, whatever the reason - the news bit was just the impetus that started me thinking.

My response is a little closer to the line of thought you intended I think, so here goes...

When I was a kid, there were two "new" theme parks in New Jersey to visit a place called Jungle Habitat and a place called Six-Flags Great Adventure (GA). Now I was about 4-6years old when both places were in their early hey-days. As kids, my siblings (along with our parents of course) and I liked Jungle Habitat much more than GA because the drive through safari was longer with more exotic animals that came up to your car. Plus they had these really neat jeeps painted like zebras that would "intervene" when let's just say a rhino took a dislike to your vehicle.

They each featured typical amusement rides inside each of their theme parks and were comparable to each other in that respect (at least the ones I could ride, like I said I was very young). However, in a short time only one park remained open, Great Adventure (which of course is in chapter 11 now - but still operational). Jungle Habitat closed it's doors and was soon forgotten by many.

Due to the fact that I was a kid, the economy of things didn't mean a thing to me at all although over the years I heard rumors of law suits and financial ruin - back then, I just knew was that Jungle Habitat had become only distant a memory over night!

Today, you can even see the now decaying park online at weirdNJ (and there are urban legend tales of exotic bands of animals that roam in the wooded areas - oops I digress). Nowadays for me, seeing the "overgrown & abandoned" park like this is disheartening. Personally I'd like to remember the Jungle Habitat theme park the way it was when it was open and a very fun place to visit.

For that reason I can see how this topic would totally depress people. On a small scale, I've seen the demise of some cool entertainment places in my lifetime (The boardwalk at Asbury Park comes to mind) and I've seen investors rescue some unique & cool places (like Cypress Gardens in central Florida).

In my heart, I hope Disney does not ever go the way of extinction ... but if it did we would probably be dealing with some really tough economic times in our individual lives, where that day-to-day survival would be more important in our minds than planning our next trip to Disney World. :-o However I must end my thoughts with this sentiment, "Who would want to live in world without Disney?" Probably none of us on the Intercot boards! :mickey:

BluewaterBrad
07-27-2009, 01:55 PM
Of course it could happen, but this guy is also making outrageous and overblown claims to sell a book. If it comes to not being able to get around, I'm sure we'll all have more to worry about than just losing a favorite vacation spot. But I have faith in technology and society to adapt around a non-renewable resource before we're that depleted of it. I also don't think that $8 a gallon would cripple us entirely or stop WDW from thriving, but it depends on the global economy and not just what prices are at in the U.S.

I don't think I'll lose WDW in my lifetime, but maybe that's because it has always been a part of my life and I just expect it to keep doing well. People always need to get away and Disney has always managed to be a top vacation destination. I'm not worried yet.



You nailed it Sherri!:mickey:

KAT1811
07-27-2009, 04:36 PM
. . . But I have faith in technology and society to adapt around a non-renewable resource before we're that depleted of it.


:ditto:




It better not be gone within in the 45-50 years. I need to maximize the benefits of my DVC memberships!

:mickey:


:laughing: :funny: No kidding!!!


We have massive, massive amounts of oil both in the continental US boundaries, up in Alaska, and off both coasts. . .


I still believe that the US is "saving" our supply for last. When there is no more anywhere else then we'll tap into our own.

As for the end of Disney, I think that Walt Disney's dream for the "World" will hold true. That the "World" will never be finished, never truly done. I think that they will do what is necessary to see the company and parks survive whatever comes our way. Where there is a will there is a way, no matter what the brick wall is, there is a way around it. If oil prices is the problem then I forsee renewable energy sources taking over, if it is severe economic downturn I forsee better "deals" to get people in. Everything turns in time and I think WDW is enormous enough to withstand some serious hits. I would think that short term minimal profits would be the tune long before they would shut the doors.

antngoof89
07-28-2009, 02:46 AM
:ditto:





:laughing: :funny: No kidding!!!



I still believe that the US is "saving" our supply for last. When there is no more anywhere else then we'll tap into our own.

As for the end of Disney, I think that Walt Disney's dream for the "World" will hold true. That the "World" will never be finished, never truly done. I think that they will do what is necessary to see the company and parks survive whatever comes our way. Where there is a will there is a way, no matter what the brick wall is, there is a way around it. If oil prices is the problem then I forsee renewable energy sources taking over, if it is severe economic downturn I forsee better "deals" to get people in. Everything turns in time and I think WDW is enormous enough to withstand some serious hits. I would think that short term minimal profits would be the tune long before they would shut the doors.

Ageed ten fold. The only reason people say things about the demise of companies and the end of the world is because they're not happy with their own life enough that they can find anything positive to say about what they're dealing with day to day. In the long run, Disney will last as long as the world last, as long as people need to be entertained, so will Disney survive.