do you think resale prices will go up w the upcoming price increase?

[LoriSan]

DH and I are thinking about picking up a small contract for more AKV points, possibly by resale. Do you think the price increase will be reflected in the resale market too?

[Ian]

Me personally? I doubt it. If you look at current resale prices, they're sagging as demand is low and supply is high.

This economy is unprecedented, though, so it's really hard to say for sure.

[DizneyRox]

Agreed...

SUpply is HIGH, demand is fairly low. Disney won't exercise right of first refusal unless the price is just ridiculously low.

I would bet prices will drop a little more as jobs become harder to find and housing sinks even further.

I'm amazed there are already AKLV resales. Here's my thoughts on this. I think people are buying, use the points and then try to sell it before too much else is due on it. I can't believe that many people have money to blow in this magnitude and then all of the sudden can't afford it. Or they just don't understand what they are doing, which I find hard to believe as well.

I think CMs get 15% off, so I can't think that CMs are buying then trying to turn a little profit. The margin seems pretty slim.

[Ian]

Well, bear in mind a lot of it could be folks who had jobs when they bought, but don't have jobs now.

I mean we did shed like a million jobs in the last two months.

[DizneyRox]

Very true, but the number of resales out there is staggering. I looked a couple times as an add-on to Boardwalk and there was literally nothing. Had a few people bail on my sale, one day it was full steam ahead, once the deposit and some escrow money was due, they were no where to be found. Very strange, something fishy is/was happening...

[lockedoutlogic]

Agreed...

SUpply is HIGH, demand is fairly low. Disney won't exercise right of first refusal unless the price is just ridiculously low.

I would bet prices will drop a little more as jobs become harder to find and housing sinks even further.

I'm amazed there are already AKLV resales. Here's my thoughts on this. I think people are buying, use the points and then try to sell it before too much else is due on it. I can't believe that many people have money to blow in this magnitude and then all of the sudden can't afford it. Or they just don't understand what they are doing, which I find hard to believe as well.

I think CMs get 15% off, so I can't think that CMs are buying then trying to turn a little profit. The margin seems pretty slim.

CMs don't make enough to even qualify to buy DVC....generally speaking....

I think you are closer with your previous conjecture:

People just went ahead and signed for something that they had no idea how to pay for.....and were saddled with a couple hundred dollar a month finance payment plus another 1000 a year in dues....

that would definitely exceed alot of car payments....even property taxes in alot of areas of this country....

It's been becoming all the more evident over the last six months that this country has had no idea what they were doing financially as a whole.

The american money sense has changed drastically....
While day trading and speculating used to be limited to a small fraction of the population that could afford it, that kind of 'bet and score...buy now pay later" attitude hit the mainstream. That....along with the well-publicized lack of government oversight (which is a necessary evil in alot of ways) allowed too many access to cash that never really existed.

A tragedy, really. For a country who used to have drive, determination, and a willingness to work for what they have.....to what we've now been revealed as.

[Ian]

CMs don't make enough to even qualify to buy DVC....generally speaking....There are, however, quite a few CM's who have spouses ... And remember, not all CM's are front-line CM's. There are managers and execs who draw decent salaries from Disney.

[lockedoutlogic]

There are, however, quite a few CM's who have spouses ... And remember, not all CM's are front-line CM's. There are managers and execs who draw decent salaries from Disney.

the managers and execs salaries are way below industry standards.....

way below (another little "secret" that no one assumes to be the case)

[Seasonscraps]

I really don't think it's that difficult to buy into DVC. I know someone with a modertely low salary and mediocre credit that qualified for financing. They bought into the DVC but can't afford to vacation. The airfares and park ticket costs are a bit prohibitive for them.

Then like Ian said, a lot of people's financial situations have changed dramatically in the past couple of months.

[Ian]

the managers and execs salaries are way below industry standards.....

way below (another little "secret" that no one assumes to be the case)That's hardly a secret. Anyone who has applied to the company or has a friend that works there knows that they're dramatically underpaid. In fact, that's the worst kept secret since ... well ... since DVC itself!

My point was, if you have two married WDW managers earning $40k a year they could easily afford to buy into DVC with their CM discount. $80k a year is more than enough to purchase a small DVC contract.

[Dsnygirl]

Very true, but the number of resales out there is staggering.
Do you really think so? My DH and I have been considering DVC for a couple of years (okay, truth be told, I have been considering... he just now is... :blush:)

Anyway, I've been watching the resales for at least the last 2 years, off & on, and honestly, the list on the two sites I watch doesn't seem that much longer. A bit, yes, but not that much to me.

Just wondering if you're looking at sites I don't watch, b/c I'm curious to know if the numbers are truly up...

[DizneyRox]

Do you really think so?
From what I remember, almost 4 times more for our location than when we sold not even 5 months ago, and it looks like the avg price is $5 less (per point) than what we sold for.

I think there were maybe 7 AKLV contracts at the time.

It looks like 1/2 the resales are SSR as well.

That is staggering from my seats. I would wait a few more months and really get these guys sweating. At that point, you will probably be able to pick up a contract for a song! <opinion>Disney isn't going to pull a right of first refusal, they are having a tough time selling what they have.</opinion> Nothing wrong with a lowball offer.

[lockedoutlogic]

That's hardly a secret. Anyone who has applied to the company or has a friend that works there knows that they're dramatically underpaid. In fact, that's the worst kept secret since ... well ... since DVC itself!

My point was, if you have two married WDW managers earning $40k a year they could easily afford to buy into DVC with their CM discount. $80k a year is more than enough to purchase a small DVC contract.


some CMs will buy DVC....but i don't think there is any basis for the speculation that there are speculating CMs putting out what little cash they have to flip timeshares as the original thought was....

And let me tell you from experience....40K jobs grow on trees in your woods and mine....

In central florida....they are ridiculously rare. There are way to many fish in the pond grappling for the scraps...

I can't even imagine how bad it's gotten now....where large sectors of the economy down there are going to be torpedoed because they gambled and expanded in the non-existent boom economy