WDW Weather Forecast - December 31, 2008-Jan 16, 2009

[Strmchsr]

Each day in December, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Wednesday pm, December 31, 2008
:newyear:

A beautiful New Year's Eve with clear skies and a high of 74. Tomorrow will be a little cooler with a high 65-67 and a low 47-49. Friday isolated showers are possible, but I think the best chance for rain will be south of Orlando. The high will be 72-74 after a low around 50. Saturday's high will be 74-76 with a low in the mid 50s. Sunday and Monday will remain clear with highs 76-78 and lows 55-57. Tuesday should be clear the majority of the day with a front moving in late afternoon or evening bringing scattered thunderstorms and a high 74-76. The big question on this remains timing. A squall line will come through at some point, but will it be early, early Wednesday morning, Tuesday night, or Wednesday afternoon? The models are all over the place on the timing. I'm just as anxious as all of you as that's my all day time in the park (I'm going to be in a conference the rest of the week). Right now my thoughts lean towards the squall coming through late Tuesday or before dawn on Wednesday with just a few clouds and isolated showers left over on Wednesday morning or early afternoon. The high will be 70-72 and dropping after the front passes. I don't have a lot of confidence in this yet, though, so let's see how things work out over the next day or two.

Long range...Jan 8-12 looks clear with highs staying in the mid 70s. The models are also waffling with the idea of how deep the east coast trough will be. Places like northern Alabama and Georgia might be freezing while Orlando remains pretty comfortable. Jan 13 looks stormy with a high around 70. Jan 14-15 look clear with highs remaining around 70 and lows in the upper 40s. Jan 16 is another one of those situations that makes me laugh. It looks like a major winter event for most of the southeast with thunderstorms changing to snow as far south as Orlando. Don't get your hopes up about the snow, that look will be gone tomorrow, but I'm serious about the change to much cooler air by mid-month. I could be wrong and that's way into voodooland, but all the signs are there that it'll happen.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
At 3:45 pm CST, Dulles is at 1 hour and JFK is at 2 hours. For tomorrow, look for delays in the Pacific Northwest. Minor delays are also possible immediately around the Great Lakes and from NYC northward along the east coast.

[Dsnygirl]

Chris, thank you so much for all your updates... you're a lifesaver!!

We're travelling during the "voodooland" forecast -- the 9th - 16th.... seems like it changes daily, if not hourly, so thanks so much for giving us at least a rough idea of what to expect!! We've never travelled to FL in December, so at least following your forecasts is helping w/ laundry and packing, for the most part!!

When do you think the models will "stay put" as far as that "subtropical ridge" part of the forecast?

:thanks:

[jonsmom]

We are also traveling in December for the first time & I really don't know what to expect. We are going for 4 days so I was trying to pack as light as possible and just use one bag, but today I decided to just bring another bag with clothes for colder weather. I don't want to pay the extra $$ for a heavy bag.

[ibrowse17]

We are headed down 13-18 Dec, so I hope you are right and the cooler wet stuff stays north:thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

When do you think the models will "stay put" as far as that "subtropical ridge" part of the forecast?

Usually once we're within 7 days the forecast locks in pretty well. Occasionally it happens sooner, but more often than not 8 days and longer changes constantly, as you noted.

[glenpreece]

WHAT??? Highs near 80 Noooooooooo!!!!! lol I wanted to wear jeans and a hoodie!

[Tinkermom]

Hi Chris! :hi: I remember last year around this time being envious of you going to WDW and seeing the beautiful castle draped in lights. Now it is our turn! :joy: We are going to be there 12/18-12/23. Need to be back to help with Christmas Eve services but really did not want to be in WDW on Christmas anyway - too crazy! :crazy:

Hoping that subtropical ridge hangs in there and keeps it warm and sunny while we are there! Put in a word with the Big Guy would ya?:thumbsup:

[Dsnygirl]

I realize we're still almost a week out, but how's the weather looking for the evening of the 11th? (MVMCP that night... :fingers:) I know your models have bounced b/w showers and clear... of course, I'm hoping "clear" wins out... :blush:

[Strmchsr]

I realize we're still almost a week out, but how's the weather looking for the evening of the 11th? (MVMCP that night... :fingers:)

One the early morning models it looks like rain comes through on the 10th and the 11th is clear. When the afternoon models come in I'll see if they concur and put together the final forecast for today.

[mudpuppysmom]

Looks like a mixed bag for our trip Dec 9-16!! I was hoping to pack more short and t's, but I guess that is not going to be the case.....I'll have to pack a little of everything like I have done in the past (for winter trips)!!

I want to say I'm leaving Pittsburgh and the "partly claudy and mihld" (as a local forecaster says) weather, but it seems that I'll be IN that type of weather!! At leat it will be warmer than it is here at home!! AND< I'd rather deal with rain and 70 than rain/sleet/snow pellets and 30 anyday!!

Here's hoping to a clearer forecast for us guys going next week!!

[Strmchsr]

AND< I'd rather deal with rain and 70 than rain/sleet/snow pellets and 30 anyday!!

That's always the bright side for you northern folks. No matter what you hit in WDW it's better than what you left behind! :mickey:

[Bri]

we are doing the candlelight processional on the 10 and mvmcp on the 11. please tell me you were wrong and it's not going to rain!!!! :fingers:

[Strmchsr]

we are doing the candlelight processional on the 10 and mvmcp on the 11. please tell me you were wrong and it's not going to rain!!!! :fingers:

Anything beyond 7 days is always subject to change. For that matter, less than 7 days can change, though that's a little more rare. Usually once we're in 7 days the models (and I) have a pretty good handle on things, but beyond 7 days things are constantly changing as there are just too many variables to accurately predict specifics that far out.

[Marymouse2003]

So, if I read this correctly & things don't change AGAIN!!!!, the party on the 9th might get by without rain? Please, please, please. We got soaked in '06 & just left. it was so sad. I'll be ck'g back over the weekend. We leave for WDW on Mon 8th.
Thanks and God bless,
Mary

[Strmchsr]

So, if I read this correctly & things don't change AGAIN!!!!, the party on the 9th might get by without rain?

Mary,

I think you'll be fine on the 9th. The models have (finally) been pretty consistent for the last 3 or so days about no rain on the 9th. We're within the 7 day window now so I feel pretty confident about that. Just checked the latest models this morning and they're still showing the 9th as rain free. The front will come through next week, but the timing is still up in the air. Some show late on the 10th, some on the 11th, and some on the morning of the 12th, so timing is way up in the air on that. You will see rain/thunderstorms at some point next week, but the 9th is good. Have a great trip!!

[Marymouse2003]

Thanks so much for the info. Thanks so much for all you do for everyone here on Intercot!
God bless,
Mary

[Dsnygirl]

Okay, not to be a downer, but I'm getting nervous... I know you're seeing stormy weather come through on Thursday, which makes me nervous for our MVMCP that night.

But two other forecasts I've seen are not only calling for rain on Thursday, but also for rain - 60% - on Fri, Sat & Sun. That's a HUGE change from what I saw this afternoon, both from you and from them. Any idea what's going on? Please tell me the models are wrong... b/c right now, 5 out of my 7 days are forecasting rain. :(

[MMouse6937]

Hey Blythe! I'm a little nervous too...we're headed to MVMCP on the 14th looks like things might clear up by then. I was hoping to wear shorts, still going to bring them...then some jeans and a sweatshirt for the evenings! :thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

Okay, not to be a downer, but I'm getting nervous... I know you're seeing stormy weather come through on Thursday, which makes me nervous for our MVMCP that night. But two other forecasts I've seen are not only calling for rain on Thursday, but also for rain - 60% - on Fri, Sat & Sun. That's a HUGE change from what I saw this afternoon, both from you and from them. Any idea what's going on? Please tell me the models are wrong... b/c right now, 5 out of my 7 days are forecasting rain. :(

You have nothing to worry about. I don't have time to go a full blown forecast just yet (I'll do that this afternoon), but with just a quick glance at the models this morning I see nothing to change my mind from yesterday. If anything, it looks like the rain might come later Thursday evening and be gone by Friday morning. So, unless I see something to change my mind this afternoon, I think you're fine and I'll stick to what I was saying yesterday. Keep in mind that most other sites (like the Weather Channel and Accuweather) are strictly automated forecasts. They are based purely on model data output from 1 model run and have no human interaction with them at all, which is why you can sometimes see bizarre shifts.


Hey Blythe! I'm a little nervous too...we're headed to MVMCP on the 14th looks like things might clear up by then. I was hoping to wear shorts, still going to bring them...then some jeans and a sweatshirt for the evenings! :thumbsup:

I'm not so sure about shorts, though it's not out of the question, but other than very isolated showers popping up the 14th looks fine.

[Dsnygirl]

You have nothing to worry about. I don't have time to go a full blown forecast just yet (I'll do that this afternoon), but with just a quick glance at the models this morning I see nothing to change my mind from yesterday. If anything, it looks like the rain might come later Thursday evening and be gone by Friday morning. So, unless I see something to change my mind this afternoon, I think you're fine and I'll stick to what I was saying yesterday. Keep in mind that most other sites (like the Weather Channel and Accuweather) are strictly automated forecasts. They are based purely on model data output from 1 model run and have no human interaction with them at all, which is why you can sometimes see bizarre shifts.
Chris, thanks for the answer... I figured it was something like that, but I didn't know other sites worked off a computer model only. Makes me feel better, as I know most of the time, you're a lot closer to how it really goes down than what the computer models show!! I'll just keep my fingers crossed that the "better models" win out!!

[FlaTinkRAMESAM]

so sad... it is not gonna be cool for our trip. :( I am hoping it changes a bit by the time the 13th rolls around...

[Tinkermom]

It has been a tough week and I was so happy to come here and read that while we are in WDW (12/18-12/23) it looks like it will be dry and warm. I sure hope this forecast does not change!:fingers:

[Strmchsr]

It has been a tough week and I was so happy to come here and read that while we are in WDW (12/18-12/23) it looks like it will be dry and warm. I sure hope this forecast does not change!:fingers:

Well, Lisa, you know I always do my best to make you happy with the weather on your trip. :D

[Tinkermom]

Chris - I am just LOVING your forecast! :joy: I am sitting here after just coming home from work and it is 9 degrees out AND our local forcasters are calling for snow tomorrow- YUCK! Can't wait for Thursday and 80 degrees while walking down Main Street! :santa: It is hard to believe that it can be so cold here in the midwest yet a high pressure area can hold back the cold air and keep Florida so warm.

Thanks for my early Christmas present!:D

[Strmchsr]

Lisa,

It's always a case of the grass being greener on the other side. Those of us down here with 80 degrees and sunshine are lamenting no white Christmas. :D

Have a great trip! :mickey:

[pixiesmimi]

Chris, What does the weather look like this weekend from WI through Nashville and down through AL as far as driving problems with the ice and snow? Specifically tomorrow from WI to Nashville? Thanks!

[Strmchsr]

Tomorrow will be iffy across WI and IL. KY will be clear. You might encounter a little rain around Nashville, but shouldn't be too big of a deal. Currently, road conditions are clear in IL, but WI still has some icy spots. Once south of Chicago, though, I really don't expect there to be any major driving issues. Getting through Chicago could be the trick. Minor icing is possible across KY today, but I think it'll be clear for driving tomorrow. Same for Nashville. Alabama will be wet and cold tomorrow, but no travel problems.

[pixiesmimi]

Well, part of it was right even if it was after the fact. :) They had a tough time with the icy roads and were about 5 hours late getting into Nashville. We did have rain last night coming into Nashville but the skies were clear and COLD this morning. Clear sunny skies all the way south through AL, thank goodness. Thanks for the help! I appreciate it, Chris. :thumbsup: Bad weather for them to go back up through Chicago this morning though.

[Tinkermom]

Just got back from WDW last night and the weather was AWESOME! I think this is the first trip we have ever taken where we did not have any rain. Most of our days were sunny and around 80-82 degrees just like you said Chris. I so enjoyed the warm weather! Monday, again as you predicted, was cooler with a high only around 59 but it was still sunny. We had a magical time and seeing the castle lights in person was AMAZING!

Thanks so much Chris for your forecasts!:thumbsup: Have a Blessed Christmas!:tree::santa3:

[Strmchsr]

Lisa,

I'm so glad you had a great trip! And I'm glad the forecast was on target for you. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally. ;)

Merry Christmas!

[mickey&missy]

Hi Chris!!

I'm keeping an eye on your forecast for January 3rd - 11th! Looks good now! Last night I read SNOW and almost passed out! I all I could do was laugh! That would be sooooo unfar! Gooing from NY to FL in January and having snow :confused:

[Strmchsr]

Melissa,

I agree on that. I laughed when I saw it on the models. I figured that solution would be short lived and it was. Still looks like that week will be definitely cooler than what we've been seeing. I'm arriving Jan 5 so see you real soon! :mickey:

[mickey&missy]

Melissa,

I agree on that. I laughed when I saw it on the models. I figured that solution would be short lived and it was. Still looks like that week will be definitely cooler than what we've been seeing. I'm arriving Jan 5 so see you real soon! :mickey:


I can deal with cooler, it's still warmer then here for the most part! Although it was in the 60's here last night!

[wendy*darling]

I'm watching the 4th-8th too!
We arrive in WDW on the 4th following 4 nights on the Wonder- hope it's nice out in the Caribbean too. :lei:

[BMan62]

We're arriving on the 5th as well. Hoping that the forecast for the 7th (stormy) changes, but we'll be at WDW, so it really doesn't matter!!

It will be nice to get a bit of a break from this roller coaster we've been on here in southern PA - rain, ice, wind, teens to 50's for temps (Christmas Eve started in the 20's with freezing rain ended up almost to 60 and very windy!)

[Strmchsr]

All you folks who will be down there in the Jan 5-9 range be sure to look for me! And, as you can see from today's forecast, the look of that week is changing almost every run. Give it a couple of more days to settle down with the models.

[TinkerbellT421]

Im keeping my eyes open for the 6th - the 16th!! lol....Especially the 7th that my Aloha dinner and that dinner depends on weather...it cancels for weather lower than the 50's! Hey you will the in the world around then!!?? We should keep an eye out for each other or Im sure you will be able to find us every night on the boardwalk in the main pool hot tub!

[grammy3]

We will be there Jan 4-11th and I'm going to be looking for the weather guru. It looks like we are looking at a couple of wet days, Oh Well, at least we will be at Disney.

Watch for us we will be: Grampy(always has something with Auburn on) Grammy (crazy white haired old lady-that's what my sons call me) the triplets (boys all age 2-nuff said) Mom (slightly harassed looking) Dad(wishing he was any where else-even work).

Thanks for the updates we are hoping and praying for not to much of the wet stuff.

[mickey&missy]

Hi Chris,

I'm wondering if you have any thoughts on this storm we're supposed to have in the Northeast Friday!

My DH watches the weather constantly, online and on TV. He loves the national weather service site!

Originally it looked worse then it does now and they took away the hazardous weather advisory they had yesterday.

I'm nervous about our flight down Saturday!!

Thanks so much!!

[Strmchsr]

Hi Chris,

I'm wondering if you have any thoughts on this storm we're supposed to have in the Northeast Friday!

Hey, Melissa.

I'm not an expert on aviation weather, but I think your flight down will be fine at least given what I'm looking at now. If you're flying out of the NYC area I think high winds may cause some delays but this afternoons models don't show the storm as being too bad. In general I don't do flight delay forecasts more than 24 hours in advance as they are notoriously fickle, so check back with me on Friday.

Hope you have a safe flight!

[mickey&missy]

Hey, Melissa.

I'm not an expert on aviation weather, but I think your flight down will be fine at least given what I'm looking at now. If you're flying out of the NYC area I think high winds may cause some delays but this afternoons models don't show the storm as being too bad. In general I don't do flight delay forecasts more than 24 hours in advance as they are notoriously fickle, so check back with me on Friday.

Hope you have a safe flight!

Thanks Chris!!!

[sshahan76]

Thank you Chris for the very valid forecast for Dec. 14-20. It was perfect. No rain, sunny, warm, upper 70's to low 80's as the highs, slight overcast a day or two and cool in the evenings, but not too bad! Our best WDW weather yet! :D

We had the best time for our first trip with son and Nana!

Planning to go back Dec. 2010! :mickey:

Happy New Year everyone! :party:

[Strmchsr]

You're very welcome! I'm glad you had such a good trip. Wish i could take credit for the good weather, but that's a little out of my league. I'm glad the forecast was on the money for you, though. Happy New Year!